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IADIS International Conference
 18 July 2012, Lisbon, Portugal
         Bruce D. Green
     Green Expert Technology
       Cherry Hill, NJ, USA
       bruce@greenxt.com
                                  SELF-PROPHECY
                                      VERSUS
                                   BEHAVIORAL
                                    INTENTION



                                             1
The Core Issue
    What inspires
        people to
use/adopt/accept
   a technology?


                    2
IS Research
• Many published studies of
  factors for why people use a
  technology
• Generally this research is
  conducted with a cross-
  sectional survey of
  perceptions, attitudes, and
  intentions about a
  technology product
• Dependent Variable is often
  Behavioral Intention to use
  (BI) the technology


                             3
Holden,R.J., and Karsh, B.T. (2010). The Technology Acceptance Model: Its past and its future in health
care. Journal of Biomedical Informatics, Vol. 43, pp 159-172.
                                                                                                          4
Typical Technology Acceptance Research
• Sample from population asked about
  perceptions, attitudes, and BI
• BI is correlated to Actual Behavior (i.e. Use)

                                  BI=DV      Use=DV
                       Tech       Data       Data from
      Sample         Product    collection    Actual
                     Demo or        via       Usage
                     training    Survey      Measures



     Population


                                                         5
The Issue with
   Technology Acceptance Research
• Missing from IS research is a control sample
  where Use is measured but
  perceptions, attitudes, and BI are not measured
                                  BI=DV      Use=DV

     Treatment
                       Tech       Data       Data from
       Group         Product    collection    Actual
                     Demo or        via       Usage
                     training    Survey      Measures
      Control
      Group

     Population


                                                         6
Self-prophecy
If you ask
someone, “do you
intend to use this
system?” then there is
a better chance that
they will use the
system than if you
had never asked them
the question.
                         7
Self-prophecy studies
Reference             Description                Self-prophecy affect
Chandon, Morwitz, & Randomly selected            Within 2-months 26.7% of the
Reinartz (2004)     customers of a French        survey participants had made a
                    online grocer surveyed       repeat purchase whereas only
                    about intentions to          16.4% of the control group made
                    purchase groceries online    a purchase (p<.03, r =.12)
Morwitz, Johnson, &   Surveyed by mail more      People asked about intent to
Schmittlein (1993)    than 40,000 U.S.           purchase Personal Computer
                      consumers about their      (PC) were 18% more likely to
                      intentions and purchases   purchase in six months than
                      of a new car or a new PC   those who were not asked intent
                                                 (p=.0735).
Dholakia and          Randomly selected          Of survey participants 51% made
Morwitz (2002)        customers of financial     a purchase whereas only 13.3%
                      services firm were given   of the control group made a
                      customer satisfaction      purchase a finding that was
                      surveys.                   significant (p<.001)
                                                                               8
Self-prophecy versus BI
• Technology acceptance/adoption/use studies quantify links
  from perceptions and attitudes to BI and Use
• Self-prophecy theory says that measuring BI affects Use
• Therefore, does measuring perceptions and attitudes
  toward a technology product affect BI?
                                                        Perceived
                                                        Usefulness                    .90***
                                                              (PU)
                                            .24**                                                     Behavioral
                                                                            .86***                     Intention
                        Computer Self                                                                    (BI)
                                                                .51***                          .02
                          Efficacy
                              (CSE)            .55***                                Attitude
                                                                                      (ATT)
                                                                         -.09
                                                         Perceived
                                                        Ease of Use
                                                             (PEOU)

                       * p< 0.05; ** p< 0.01; *** p< 0.001


Levy, Y., and Green, B. D., 2009. An empirical study of computer self-efficacy and the technology acceptance model in the military:
A case of a U.S. Navy combat information system. Journal of Organizational and End User Computing, Vol. 21, No.3, pp 1-23


                                                                                                                                  9
Are we self-correcting?
• If we “Agree” with statements like these*:
      •   Using Chart Master would improve my job performance
      •   Using Chart Master would increase my productivity
      •   I would find Chart Master easy to use
      •   Learning to operate Chart Master would be easy for me
• …are we more likely to “Agree” that we intend to use
  the system?
• …and more likely to actually use the system?

* Davis, F. D., 1989. Perceived usefulness, perceived ease-of-use, and user acceptance of information
technology. MIS Quarterly, Vol. 13, No.3, pp 319-340.



                                                                                                        10
SP vs. BI leads to 2 research questions:
1. Does measuring perceptions and attitudes
toward a technology product affect BI?

                                  BI=DV

    Treatment
                     Tech       Full “TAM-
      Group        Product         type”
                   Demo or        Survey      Data
                   training                  Analysis
     Control                   Measure BI
     Group                       Only

    Population



                                                   11
2. Does measuring BI affect actual use?


                             BI=DV      Use=DV

   Treatment
                  Tech       Data       Data from
     Group      Product    collection    Actual
                Demo or        via       Usage
                training    Survey      Measures
    Control
    Group

   Population




                                                    12
Obrigado!




            13

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Self prophecy versus behavioral intention

  • 1. IADIS International Conference 18 July 2012, Lisbon, Portugal Bruce D. Green Green Expert Technology Cherry Hill, NJ, USA bruce@greenxt.com SELF-PROPHECY VERSUS BEHAVIORAL INTENTION 1
  • 2. The Core Issue What inspires people to use/adopt/accept a technology? 2
  • 3. IS Research • Many published studies of factors for why people use a technology • Generally this research is conducted with a cross- sectional survey of perceptions, attitudes, and intentions about a technology product • Dependent Variable is often Behavioral Intention to use (BI) the technology 3
  • 4. Holden,R.J., and Karsh, B.T. (2010). The Technology Acceptance Model: Its past and its future in health care. Journal of Biomedical Informatics, Vol. 43, pp 159-172. 4
  • 5. Typical Technology Acceptance Research • Sample from population asked about perceptions, attitudes, and BI • BI is correlated to Actual Behavior (i.e. Use) BI=DV Use=DV Tech Data Data from Sample Product collection Actual Demo or via Usage training Survey Measures Population 5
  • 6. The Issue with Technology Acceptance Research • Missing from IS research is a control sample where Use is measured but perceptions, attitudes, and BI are not measured BI=DV Use=DV Treatment Tech Data Data from Group Product collection Actual Demo or via Usage training Survey Measures Control Group Population 6
  • 7. Self-prophecy If you ask someone, “do you intend to use this system?” then there is a better chance that they will use the system than if you had never asked them the question. 7
  • 8. Self-prophecy studies Reference Description Self-prophecy affect Chandon, Morwitz, & Randomly selected Within 2-months 26.7% of the Reinartz (2004) customers of a French survey participants had made a online grocer surveyed repeat purchase whereas only about intentions to 16.4% of the control group made purchase groceries online a purchase (p<.03, r =.12) Morwitz, Johnson, & Surveyed by mail more People asked about intent to Schmittlein (1993) than 40,000 U.S. purchase Personal Computer consumers about their (PC) were 18% more likely to intentions and purchases purchase in six months than of a new car or a new PC those who were not asked intent (p=.0735). Dholakia and Randomly selected Of survey participants 51% made Morwitz (2002) customers of financial a purchase whereas only 13.3% services firm were given of the control group made a customer satisfaction purchase a finding that was surveys. significant (p<.001) 8
  • 9. Self-prophecy versus BI • Technology acceptance/adoption/use studies quantify links from perceptions and attitudes to BI and Use • Self-prophecy theory says that measuring BI affects Use • Therefore, does measuring perceptions and attitudes toward a technology product affect BI? Perceived Usefulness .90*** (PU) .24** Behavioral .86*** Intention Computer Self (BI) .51*** .02 Efficacy (CSE) .55*** Attitude (ATT) -.09 Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU) * p< 0.05; ** p< 0.01; *** p< 0.001 Levy, Y., and Green, B. D., 2009. An empirical study of computer self-efficacy and the technology acceptance model in the military: A case of a U.S. Navy combat information system. Journal of Organizational and End User Computing, Vol. 21, No.3, pp 1-23 9
  • 10. Are we self-correcting? • If we “Agree” with statements like these*: • Using Chart Master would improve my job performance • Using Chart Master would increase my productivity • I would find Chart Master easy to use • Learning to operate Chart Master would be easy for me • …are we more likely to “Agree” that we intend to use the system? • …and more likely to actually use the system? * Davis, F. D., 1989. Perceived usefulness, perceived ease-of-use, and user acceptance of information technology. MIS Quarterly, Vol. 13, No.3, pp 319-340. 10
  • 11. SP vs. BI leads to 2 research questions: 1. Does measuring perceptions and attitudes toward a technology product affect BI? BI=DV Treatment Tech Full “TAM- Group Product type” Demo or Survey Data training Analysis Control Measure BI Group Only Population 11
  • 12. 2. Does measuring BI affect actual use? BI=DV Use=DV Treatment Tech Data Data from Group Product collection Actual Demo or via Usage training Survey Measures Control Group Population 12
  • 13. Obrigado! 13