1. IADIS International Conference
18 July 2012, Lisbon, Portugal
Bruce D. Green
Green Expert Technology
Cherry Hill, NJ, USA
bruce@greenxt.com
SELF-PROPHECY
VERSUS
BEHAVIORAL
INTENTION
1
2. The Core Issue
What inspires
people to
use/adopt/accept
a technology?
2
3. IS Research
• Many published studies of
factors for why people use a
technology
• Generally this research is
conducted with a cross-
sectional survey of
perceptions, attitudes, and
intentions about a
technology product
• Dependent Variable is often
Behavioral Intention to use
(BI) the technology
3
4. Holden,R.J., and Karsh, B.T. (2010). The Technology Acceptance Model: Its past and its future in health
care. Journal of Biomedical Informatics, Vol. 43, pp 159-172.
4
5. Typical Technology Acceptance Research
• Sample from population asked about
perceptions, attitudes, and BI
• BI is correlated to Actual Behavior (i.e. Use)
BI=DV Use=DV
Tech Data Data from
Sample Product collection Actual
Demo or via Usage
training Survey Measures
Population
5
6. The Issue with
Technology Acceptance Research
• Missing from IS research is a control sample
where Use is measured but
perceptions, attitudes, and BI are not measured
BI=DV Use=DV
Treatment
Tech Data Data from
Group Product collection Actual
Demo or via Usage
training Survey Measures
Control
Group
Population
6
7. Self-prophecy
If you ask
someone, “do you
intend to use this
system?” then there is
a better chance that
they will use the
system than if you
had never asked them
the question.
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8. Self-prophecy studies
Reference Description Self-prophecy affect
Chandon, Morwitz, & Randomly selected Within 2-months 26.7% of the
Reinartz (2004) customers of a French survey participants had made a
online grocer surveyed repeat purchase whereas only
about intentions to 16.4% of the control group made
purchase groceries online a purchase (p<.03, r =.12)
Morwitz, Johnson, & Surveyed by mail more People asked about intent to
Schmittlein (1993) than 40,000 U.S. purchase Personal Computer
consumers about their (PC) were 18% more likely to
intentions and purchases purchase in six months than
of a new car or a new PC those who were not asked intent
(p=.0735).
Dholakia and Randomly selected Of survey participants 51% made
Morwitz (2002) customers of financial a purchase whereas only 13.3%
services firm were given of the control group made a
customer satisfaction purchase a finding that was
surveys. significant (p<.001)
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9. Self-prophecy versus BI
• Technology acceptance/adoption/use studies quantify links
from perceptions and attitudes to BI and Use
• Self-prophecy theory says that measuring BI affects Use
• Therefore, does measuring perceptions and attitudes
toward a technology product affect BI?
Perceived
Usefulness .90***
(PU)
.24** Behavioral
.86*** Intention
Computer Self (BI)
.51*** .02
Efficacy
(CSE) .55*** Attitude
(ATT)
-.09
Perceived
Ease of Use
(PEOU)
* p< 0.05; ** p< 0.01; *** p< 0.001
Levy, Y., and Green, B. D., 2009. An empirical study of computer self-efficacy and the technology acceptance model in the military:
A case of a U.S. Navy combat information system. Journal of Organizational and End User Computing, Vol. 21, No.3, pp 1-23
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10. Are we self-correcting?
• If we “Agree” with statements like these*:
• Using Chart Master would improve my job performance
• Using Chart Master would increase my productivity
• I would find Chart Master easy to use
• Learning to operate Chart Master would be easy for me
• …are we more likely to “Agree” that we intend to use
the system?
• …and more likely to actually use the system?
* Davis, F. D., 1989. Perceived usefulness, perceived ease-of-use, and user acceptance of information
technology. MIS Quarterly, Vol. 13, No.3, pp 319-340.
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11. SP vs. BI leads to 2 research questions:
1. Does measuring perceptions and attitudes
toward a technology product affect BI?
BI=DV
Treatment
Tech Full “TAM-
Group Product type”
Demo or Survey Data
training Analysis
Control Measure BI
Group Only
Population
11
12. 2. Does measuring BI affect actual use?
BI=DV Use=DV
Treatment
Tech Data Data from
Group Product collection Actual
Demo or via Usage
training Survey Measures
Control
Group
Population
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