2. The 1990s was “the age of abundance”
The 2010s ... will be an age of scarcity
A Civic-Biomic-Engineering mashup?
3. Calculating the carbon cost
of everything on Earth
All the air in the atmosphere
(5140 trillion tonnes)
gathered into a ball
at sea-level density
http://carbonquilt.org
6. The linear rate of decline
of August ice extent over
the period 1979 to 2010 is
now 8.9% per decade.
7. “the median surface
warming in 2091 to 2100
is 5.1°C compared
to 2.4°C in the 2003 study”
source: MIT
8. “the cull during this century is
going to be huge, up to 90%.
The number of people
remaining at the end of
the century will probably
be a billion or less.”
source: Lovelock
9. “If we burn all the coal,
we might kick-start runaway
greenhouse effect, if we burn all
the tar shale and tar sands
we definitely will ...
leading to the Venus Syndrome.”
source: Hansen, Nasa
10. “capitalism is not up to the
challenge ... it improperly and
systemically undervalues the
future ... it has become a kind of
multi-generational Ponzi scheme ”
source: Robinson (via McKinsey)
11. “The next decade is critical.
If emissions do not peak around
2020 and then decline steadily,
a 50% reduction by 2050
will become much more costly.
In fact, the opportunity may
be lost completely.”
source: international energy agency (iea)
12. Status - bad?
Policy stagnation (COP15)
Markets “broken” (EU ETS)
Unhappy economy
Cost of change increasing
Climate “backlash” continues
Complexity is leading to inertia
Lack of data and transparency
13. Status - good?
Policy moving (“Copenhagen Accord”, CRC)
Investment increasing (clean-tech,smart-grid)
Technology revolution underway
Business acting (Walmart, IBM)
“Energy Security” is a catalyst
Sustainability “accepted as an issue” and supplanting 'carbon'
Energy efficiency focus for reduction
Step change in pace and scale required
14. So, what are we changing?
All forms of energy production
All forms of energy distribution
Any activity that consumes resources
All industrial activity
Legislation
All buildings Economics
All lighting and appliances People
All transportation Culture
15. What's the size of the problem?
To meet 2050 energy demands (non-sustainably)
$270,000,000,000,000 ($270tr)
To meet 2050 energy demands (with 50% carbon reductions)
$316,000,000,000,000 ($316tr)
(the extra is completely offset by fuel savings)
source: (iea)
http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1507 http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=401 Attribution for this quote, many charts and much of the data referenced in this talk. Recommended reading. “To meet the challenges of energy security and climate change as well as the growing energy needs of the developing world, a global energy technology revolution is essential. “
“ Here comes everybody” [Clay Shirky] "Leadership starts at the bottom" [Carl Malamud] “ Get excited and make things” [Matt Jones]
