OpenTech 20100911 talk


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Slides from OpenTech 2010 talk at UCL by Gavin Starks

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  • Attribution for this quote, many charts and much of the data referenced in this talk. Recommended reading. “To meet the challenges of energy security and climate change as well as the growing energy needs of the developing world, a global energy technology revolution is essential. “
  • “ Here comes everybody” [Clay Shirky] "Leadership starts at the bottom" [Carl Malamud] “ Get excited and make things” [Matt Jones]
  • OpenTech 20100911 talk

    1. 1. Gavin Starks OpenTech 2010
    2. 2. The 1990s was “the age of abundance” The 2010s ... will be an age of scarcity A Civic-Biomic-Engineering mashup?
    3. 3. Calculating the carbon cost of everything on Earth All the air in the atmosphere (5140 trillion tonnes) gathered into a ball at sea-level density
    4. 4.
    5. 5. The linear rate of decline of August ice extent over the period 1979 to 2010 is now 8.9% per decade.
    6. 6. “the median surface warming in 2091 to 2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the 2003 study” source: MIT
    7. 7. “the cull during this century is going to be huge, up to 90%. The number of people remaining at the end of the century will probably be a billion or less.” source: Lovelock
    8. 8. “If we burn all the coal, we might kick-start runaway greenhouse effect, if we burn all the tar shale and tar sands we definitely will ... leading to the Venus Syndrome.” source: Hansen, Nasa
    9. 9. “capitalism is not up to the challenge ... it improperly and systemically undervalues the future ... it has become a kind of multi-generational Ponzi scheme ” source: Robinson (via McKinsey)
    10. 10. “The next decade is critical. If emissions do not peak around 2020 and then decline steadily, a 50% reduction by 2050 will become much more costly. In fact, the opportunity may be lost completely.” source: international energy agency (iea)
    11. 11. Status - bad? Policy stagnation (COP15) Markets “broken” (EU ETS) Unhappy economy Cost of change increasing Climate “backlash” continues Complexity is leading to inertia Lack of data and transparency
    12. 12. Status - good? Policy moving (“Copenhagen Accord”, CRC) Investment increasing (clean-tech,smart-grid) Technology revolution underway Business acting (Walmart, IBM) “Energy Security” is a catalyst Sustainability “accepted as an issue” and supplanting 'carbon' Energy efficiency focus for reduction Step change in pace and scale required
    13. 13. So, what are we changing? All forms of energy production All forms of energy distribution Any activity that consumes resources All industrial activity Legislation All buildings Economics All lighting and appliances People All transportation Culture
    14. 14. What's the size of the problem? To meet 2050 energy demands (non-sustainably) $270,000,000,000,000 ($270tr) To meet 2050 energy demands (with 50% carbon reductions) $316,000,000,000,000 ($316tr) (the extra is completely offset by fuel savings) source: (iea)
    15. 15. source: (iea)
    16. 16. source: (iea)
    17. 17. source: (iea)
    18. 18. source: (iea)
    19. 19. source: (iea)
    20. 20. source: (iea)
    21. 21. Top 5 in renewables (GW) USA 53.4 China 52.5 Germany 36.2 Spain 22.4 India 16.5 source: (iea)
    22. 22. source: (iea)
    23. 23. source: (iea)
    24. 24. source: (iea)
    25. 25. source: (iea)
    26. 26. source: (iea)
    27. 27. source: J. L. Radtke
    28. 28.
    29. 29. Gavin Starks