1. jancovici.com
Our global IT system, an
energy saver, or a climate
destroyer ?
Jean-Marc Jancovici
jmj@manicore.com
jean-marc.jancovici@carbone4.com
jean-marc.jancovici@theshiftproject.org
API Days
12 December 2018

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According to you, what is energy?
My electricity or gas bill

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It’s only 5%!
= 5%
= 2%
= 5%

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According to you, what is energy?
My electricity or gas bill
The answer C
Something to be saved!
(why can be unclear)
Something I’m full of
when I really feel great

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Energy, stronger than euros (or
dollars)
By definition, energy = change :
Counting energy is therefore nothing else than counting
how much the physical world has changed
Change of temperature
Change of position in a field
Change of speed
Change of chemical composition
Change of atomic composition
Creating or absorbing radiation…
Change of shape

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Because of the law of conservation, “using energy” is actually extracting
energy from the environment and using it to put a converter into action.
To use “something else” (oil, gas, waterfalls, uranium, wind…) we need
another converter which is called “a machine”.
The only energy that our body can use and convert, is food, that is a
particular type of chemical energy
“using energy”, an incorrect
expression for a major process
W + heat
“Using more and more energy” is therefore “commanding
more and more machinery”

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1 L
≈ 0,5 kWh
80 kg + 10 kg
up 2000 m
0,05 kWh per day
(10 kWh/year)
6 m3 earth lifted
up 1 m
x 10
10 kWh
2-4 kWh
mechanical
output
x 100
@ 1000 €/month: 200 €/kWh
1,5 €/L :
0,4 €/kWh
2000 €/kWh
÷ 500
÷ 5000
1 day out of 2: 100 kWh/year
Even a slave: 4-40 €/kWh
÷ 10-100
Nietzsche wanted supermen, oil did
the job

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60 kW ≈ 600 pairs of legs
100 kW ≈ 10.000 pairs of arms!
1 steel mill @ 100 MW ≈
10.000.000 pairs of arms!
100 MW ≈ 1.000.000 pairs of legs
400 kW ≈ 4.000 pairs of legs
Production: men with the help of machines,
or machines with the help of men?
10 MW ≈ 100.000 pairs of legs

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“Energy consumption” per capita, world average, 1860-2017. Jancovici, 2018
Yummy kWh
66% = machines that produce electricity
50% = machines that
move around people and
things
What gets journalists excited (and thus politicians)
Over 20.000 kWh per capita
and per year ≈ 200 “energy
slaves” per capita
Carbon!

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Meet Ironman for real, except
scattered in bits and pieces
=
200 (world average)
to 600 (European
average)
+

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Fraction of each energy in world use since 1860. Jancovici, on various data
A rising purchasing power is a rising
fossil fuel use. Fancy that?
Beginning of the “renewable
boom”

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Energy use 1860-2017. Jancovici, 2018
And then they were much more than
three…
Food for machines in the world
Carbon!

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Breakdown of the electricity production between 1980 and 2014.
Data from www.tsp-data-portal.org
Electricity is no more CO2-free than
the rest
1000 g of CO2 per electric kWh
400 g of CO2
per electric kWh
800g of CO2
per electric kWh
10 à 250 g of CO2 per controlable electric kWh

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Surplus of world electricity production between 2000 and 2017. Jancovici, on data from BP
Statistical Review 2018
Are we really witnessing a renewable
boom? (bis)

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Our economy seen by Super Mario
(or super Jean-Baptiste)
Productive system

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Actually, you'd better have some
resource!
Productive system
= 200
Work
+= 1
Capital

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1000 years with
no growth
World GDP reconstituted from 0 to 2003. Source Maddison, 2010
1800 years with
almost no growth
3% per year for eternity?
No fossil fuels: no need to promise
any growth!
Beginning of fossil
fuels

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1965
2016
Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant $, 1965 to 2016. Source World Bank
2017 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2017 for energy
The best macroeconomic model in
the past world: a straight line
Energy consumption = number of machines!

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World CO2 emissions vs. world GDP. Jancovici, 2017
Decoupling, a piece of cake?

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Forget the forecast of the IMF, look at
the joules…
Annual change of the world energy consumption (green) and the world GDP
(blue). Source World Bank 2017 for the GDP and BP Stat 2017 for energy

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CnHp
O2
CO2
Present job structure, leisure and
holidays, long studies, health, retirement,
globalisation, growing cities and services
everywhere…
Crac ?
Boom ?
Free!!
= GDP
Ores, stones, living
species, and all
other resources (free
also)
The fire age, perpetual growth… and
two questions

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Mathematics are definitely
hateful
As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels,
ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that :
It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction
It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant
extraction !
In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction :
It is nil at -∞
It is nil at +∞
It goes through an absolute
maximum in between

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Mathematics are definitely
hateful
As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels,
ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that :
It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction
It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant
extraction !
In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction :
It is nil at -∞
It is nil at +∞
It goes through an absolute
maximum in between
!"!
!#"!
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The peak !

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Past and future world liquid production. Source : “Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and
projections”, 2009
Conventional
Deep
offshore
Extra-
heavy
Refinery
gains
NGLCTL,
biofuels…
And what about the coming peak?

25. www.jancovici.com
Greenhouse gases emissions since 1860. primary data from Schilling et al. & BP Statistical
Review (fuels); Houghton http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends (deforestation); IPCC AR4 for cement
And then they were emitting

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Help! Where is the reset button?
Source IPCC, 5th assessment report
You are dead
Your kids are dead
10 generations are dead…

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+5°C !!!
Source: Quaternary Environments Network
Fancy triggering a new climate era?
Ice cap 3 km thick
Dry and cold≈ 100.000 men

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Inter-model precipitation change for a 2.7 °C increase compared to preindustrial times.
Source: IPCC, 5th assessment report, 2014
A climate change is not just a
temperature change

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2°C, a piece of cake?
Temperature increase in 2100 arising from cumulated emissions since 1870. IPCC, 2015
2017
Cumulated CO2 emissions
since 1870 in Gt
÷ 3 in 2050

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Dividing emissions by 3, where do we
start?
Approximate breakdown of world emissions in 2014. Jancovici, on various data.
Coal power plants
Oil & gas
power
plants
Cement
Other industryBoilers in
buildings
≈ 2%≈ 2%≈ 4%≈ 6%
Agriculture
Deforestation
Other
Transportation

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IT = smart, thus IT = green!

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The ICT would be “dematerialized”?
Antennas
Cables, components
Public works
Si melting
Servers

33. www.jancovici.comPour AO FRM
Is my IT of any help?
World energy efficiency since 1965. Data from World Bank and BP Statistical Review
Beginning of the “IT revolution”

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Dematerialization, where are you?
CO2 emissions since 1860. Jancovici, on primary data from Shilling et al, and BP
Statistical Review.
Beginning of “IT revolution”
+ “renewable boom”

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Producing is producing
Assessment of various environmental impacts of the production of three “basic” IT devices.
Source: The Shift Project, 2018

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And virtue is not in sight
Source: The Shift Project, 2018

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Running is not so hard
Assessment of various environmental impacts of the use phase of 4 “basic” IT devices.
Source: The Shift Project, 2018

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Dematerialization, where are you?
(ter)

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Dematerialization, where are you?
(ter)

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0,68 - Smart motors
0,29 - Industrial process automation
0,1 - Dematerialisation
- 7.8 Gt eqCO2 enabled by IT compared to a
BAU scenario in 2020 (51.9 GtCO2e)
(GteqCO2)
As all economic activities, IT people
are on the good side of the force
Source: SMART 2020 Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age. GeSI, 2008. (page 17)
1,3 - Smart Logistics
0,5 - Private transport optimisation
0,14 - Dematerialisation
0,16 - Efficient vehicles
0,1 - Traffic flow monitoring, planning and
simulation
0,22 - Smart logistic
1,68 - Smart Building
0,22 - Dematerialisation
0,28 - Smart Grid
1,75 - Smart Grid
0,4 - Efficient generation of power

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1
H
2
He
3
Li
4
Be
5
B
6
C
7
N
8
O
9
F
10
Ne
11
Na
12
Mg
13
Al
14
Si
15
P
16
S
17
Cl
18
Ar
19
K
20
Ca
21
Sc
22
Ti
23
V
24
Cr
25
Mn
26
Fe
27
Co
28
Ni
29
Cu
30
Zn
31
Ga
32
Ge
33
As
34
Se
35
Br
36
Kr
37
Rb
38
Sr
39
Y
40
Zr
41
Nb
42
Mo
44
Ru
45
Rh
46
Pd
47
Ag
48
Cd
49
In
50
Sn
51
Sb
52
Te
53
I
54
Xe
55
Cs
56
Ba *
72
Hf
73
Ta
74
W
75
Re
76
Os
77
Ir
78
Pt
79
Au
80
Hg
81
Tl
82
Pb
83
Bi
**
*Lanthanides
(rare earths)
57
La
58
Ce
59
Pr
60
Nd
62
Sm
63
Eu
64
Gd
65
Tb
66
Dy
67
Ho
68
Er
69
Tm
70
Yb
71
Lu
**Actinides
90
Th
92
U
Source : UNEP / Recycling rates of metals 2011
Recycling rate of metals
< 1% 1 – 10% 10 – 25% 25 – 50% > 50%
High tech saving the world: how many
times can I play?

42. www.jancovici.com
HE'S
MAD !!
HE'S
MAD !!
HE'S MAD !!
HE'S MAD !!
HE'S MAD !!
HE'S MAD !!
I'VE SAID
IT !!
Any questions?