APIdays Paris 2018 - Our global IT system, energy saver or climate destroyer? Jean-Marc Jancovici, President, The Shift Project

apidays
Jan. 17, 2019
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APIdays Paris 2018 - Our global IT system, energy saver or climate destroyer? Jean-Marc Jancovici, President, The Shift Project

• 1. jancovici.com Our global IT system, an energy saver, or a climate destroyer ? Jean-Marc Jancovici jmj@manicore.com jean-marc.jancovici@carbone4.com jean-marc.jancovici@theshiftproject.org API Days 12 December 2018
• 2. www.jancovici.com According to you, what is energy? My electricity or gas bill
• 4. www.jancovici.com According to you, what is energy? My electricity or gas bill The answer C Something to be saved! (why can be unclear) Something I’m full of when I really feel great
• 5. www.jancovici.com Energy, stronger than euros (or dollars) By definition, energy = change : Counting energy is therefore nothing else than counting how much the physical world has changed Change of temperature Change of position in a field Change of speed Change of chemical composition Change of atomic composition Creating or absorbing radiation… Change of shape
• 6. www.jancovici.com Because of the law of conservation, “using energy” is actually extracting energy from the environment and using it to put a converter into action. To use “something else” (oil, gas, waterfalls, uranium, wind…) we need another converter which is called “a machine”. The only energy that our body can use and convert, is food, that is a particular type of chemical energy “using energy”, an incorrect expression for a major process W + heat “Using more and more energy” is therefore “commanding more and more machinery”
• 7. www.jancovici.com 1 L ≈ 0,5 kWh 80 kg + 10 kg up 2000 m 0,05 kWh per day (10 kWh/year) 6 m3 earth lifted up 1 m x 10 10 kWh 2-4 kWh mechanical output x 100 @ 1000 €/month: 200 €/kWh 1,5 €/L : 0,4 €/kWh 2000 €/kWh ÷ 500 ÷ 5000 1 day out of 2: 100 kWh/year Even a slave: 4-40 €/kWh ÷ 10-100 Nietzsche wanted supermen, oil did the job
• 8. www.jancovici.com 60 kW ≈ 600 pairs of legs 100 kW ≈ 10.000 pairs of arms! 1 steel mill @ 100 MW ≈ 10.000.000 pairs of arms! 100 MW ≈ 1.000.000 pairs of legs 400 kW ≈ 4.000 pairs of legs Production: men with the help of machines, or machines with the help of men? 10 MW ≈ 100.000 pairs of legs
• 9. www.jancovici.com “Energy consumption” per capita, world average, 1860-2017. Jancovici, 2018 Yummy kWh 66% = machines that produce electricity 50% = machines that move around people and things What gets journalists excited (and thus politicians) Over 20.000 kWh per capita and per year ≈ 200 “energy slaves” per capita Carbon!
• 10. www.jancovici.com Meet Ironman for real, except scattered in bits and pieces = 200 (world average) to 600 (European average) +
• 11. www.jancovici.com Fraction of each energy in world use since 1860. Jancovici, on various data A rising purchasing power is a rising fossil fuel use. Fancy that? Beginning of the “renewable boom”
• 12. www.jancovici.com Energy use 1860-2017. Jancovici, 2018 And then they were much more than three… Food for machines in the world Carbon!
• 13. www.jancovici.com Breakdown of the electricity production between 1980 and 2014. Data from www.tsp-data-portal.org Electricity is no more CO2-free than the rest 1000 g of CO2 per electric kWh 400 g of CO2 per electric kWh 800g of CO2 per electric kWh 10 à 250 g of CO2 per controlable electric kWh
• 14. www.jancovici.com Surplus of world electricity production between 2000 and 2017. Jancovici, on data from BP Statistical Review 2018 Are we really witnessing a renewable boom? (bis)
• 15. www.jancovici.com Our economy seen by Super Mario (or super Jean-Baptiste) Productive system
• 16. www.jancovici.com Actually, you'd better have some resource! Productive system = 200 Work += 1 Capital
• 17. www.jancovici.com 1000 years with no growth World GDP reconstituted from 0 to 2003. Source Maddison, 2010 1800 years with almost no growth 3% per year for eternity? No fossil fuels: no need to promise any growth! Beginning of fossil fuels
• 18. www.jancovici.com 1965 2016 Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant \$, 1965 to 2016. Source World Bank 2017 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2017 for energy The best macroeconomic model in the past world: a straight line Energy consumption = number of machines!
• 19. www.jancovici.com World CO2 emissions vs. world GDP. Jancovici, 2017 Decoupling, a piece of cake?
• 20. www.jancovici.com Forget the forecast of the IMF, look at the joules… Annual change of the world energy consumption (green) and the world GDP (blue). Source World Bank 2017 for the GDP and BP Stat 2017 for energy
• 21. www.jancovici.com CnHp O2 CO2 Present job structure, leisure and holidays, long studies, health, retirement, globalisation, growing cities and services everywhere… Crac ? Boom ? Free!! = GDP Ores, stones, living species, and all other resources (free also) The fire age, perpetual growth… and two questions
• 22. www.jancovici.com Mathematics are definitely hateful As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels, ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that : It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant extraction ! In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction : It is nil at -∞ It is nil at +∞ It goes through an absolute maximum in between
• 23. www.jancovici.com Mathematics are definitely hateful As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels, ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that : It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant extraction ! In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction : It is nil at -∞ It is nil at +∞ It goes through an absolute maximum in between !"! !#"! !\$""! !\$#"! !%""! !%#"! \$! %! &! '! #! (! )! *! +! \$"! \$\$! \$%! \$&! \$'! \$#! \$(! \$)! \$*! \$+! %"! %\$! %%! %&! %'! %#! %(! %)! %*! %+! &"! &\$! &%! &&! &'! &#! &(! &)! &*! &+! '"! '\$! '%! '&! ''! '#! '(! ')! '*! '+! #"! #\$! #%! #&! #'! ##! #(! #)! #*! #+! ("! (\$! (%! (&! ('! (#! ((! ()! (*! (+! )"! )\$! )%! )&! )'! )#! )(! ))! )*! )+! *"! *\$! *%! *&! *'! *#! *(! *)! **! *+! +"! +\$! +%! +&! +'! +#! +(! +)! +*! ++! \$""!\$"\$!\$"%!\$"&!\$"'!\$"#!\$"(!\$")!\$"*!\$"+!\$\$"!\$\$\$!\$\$%!\$\$&!\$\$'!\$\$#!\$\$(!\$\$)!\$\$*!\$\$+!\$%"!\$%\$!\$%%!\$%&!\$%'!\$%#!\$%(!\$%)!\$%*!\$%+!\$&"!\$&\$!\$&%!\$&&!\$&'!\$&#!\$&(!\$&)!\$&*!\$&+!\$'"!\$'\$!\$'%!\$'&!\$''!\$'#!\$'(!\$')!\$'*!\$'+!\$#"!\$#\$!\$#%!\$#&!\$#'!\$##!\$#(!\$#)!\$#*!\$#+!\$("!\$(\$!\$(%!\$(&!\$('!\$(#!\$((!\$()!\$(*!\$(+!\$)"!\$)\$!\$)%!\$)&!\$)'!\$)#!\$)(!\$))!\$)*!\$)+!\$*"!\$*\$!\$*%!\$*&!\$*'!\$*#!\$*(!\$*)!\$**!\$*+!\$+"!\$+\$!\$+%!\$+&!\$+'!\$+#!\$+(!\$+)!\$+*!\$++!%""! !"! !#! !\$"! !\$#! !%"! !%#! \$! %! &! '! #! (! )! *! +! \$"! \$\$! \$%! \$&! \$'! \$#! \$(! \$)! \$*! \$+! %"! %\$! %%! %&! %'! %#! %(! %)! %*! %+! &"! &\$! &%! &&! &'! &#! &(! &)! &*! &+! '"! '\$! '%! '&! ''! '#! '(! ')! '*! '+! #"! #\$! #%! #&! #'! ##! #(! #)! #*! #+! ("! (\$! (%! (&! ('! (#! ((! ()! (*! (+! )"! )\$! )%! )&! )'! )#! )(! ))! )*! )+! *"! *\$! *%! *&! *'! *#! *(! *)! **! *+! +"! +\$! +%! +&! +'! +#! +(! +)! +*! ++! \$""!\$"\$!\$"%!\$"&!\$"'!\$"#!\$"(!\$")!\$"*!\$"+!\$\$"!\$\$\$!\$\$%!\$\$&!\$\$'!\$\$#!\$\$(!\$\$)!\$\$*!\$\$+!\$%"!\$%\$!\$%%!\$%&!\$%'!\$%#!\$%(!\$%)!\$%*!\$%+!\$&"!\$&\$!\$&%!\$&&!\$&'!\$&#!\$&(!\$&)!\$&*!\$&+!\$'"!\$'\$!\$'%!\$'&!\$''!\$'#!\$'(!\$')!\$'*!\$'+!\$#"!\$#\$!\$#%!\$#&!\$#'!\$##!\$#(!\$#)!\$#*!\$#+!\$("!\$(\$!\$(%!\$(&!\$('!\$(#!\$((!\$()!\$(*!\$(+!\$)"!\$)\$!\$)%!\$)&!\$)'!\$)#!\$)(!\$))!\$)*!\$)+!\$*"!\$*\$!\$*%!\$*&!\$*'!\$*#!\$*(!\$*)!\$**!\$*+!\$+"!\$+\$!\$+%!\$+&!\$+'!\$+#!\$+(!\$+)!\$+*!\$++!%""! The peak !
• 24. www.jancovici.com Past and future world liquid production. Source : “Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections”, 2009 Conventional Deep offshore Extra- heavy Refinery gains NGLCTL, biofuels… And what about the coming peak?
• 25. www.jancovici.com Greenhouse gases emissions since 1860. primary data from Schilling et al. & BP Statistical Review (fuels); Houghton http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends (deforestation); IPCC AR4 for cement And then they were emitting
• 26. www.jancovici.com Help! Where is the reset button? Source IPCC, 5th assessment report You are dead Your kids are dead 10 generations are dead…
• 27. www.jancovici.com +5°C !!! Source: Quaternary Environments Network Fancy triggering a new climate era? Ice cap 3 km thick Dry and cold≈ 100.000 men
• 28. www.jancovici.com Inter-model precipitation change for a 2.7 °C increase compared to preindustrial times. Source: IPCC, 5th assessment report, 2014 A climate change is not just a temperature change
• 29. www.jancovici.com 2°C, a piece of cake? Temperature increase in 2100 arising from cumulated emissions since 1870. IPCC, 2015 2017 Cumulated CO2 emissions since 1870 in Gt ÷ 3 in 2050
• 30. www.jancovici.com Dividing emissions by 3, where do we start? Approximate breakdown of world emissions in 2014. Jancovici, on various data. Coal power plants Oil & gas power plants Cement Other industryBoilers in buildings ≈ 2%≈ 2%≈ 4%≈ 6% Agriculture Deforestation Other Transportation
• 31. www.jancovici.com IT = smart, thus IT = green!
• 32. www.jancovici.com The ICT would be “dematerialized”? Antennas Cables, components Public works Si melting Servers
• 33. www.jancovici.comPour AO FRM Is my IT of any help? World energy efficiency since 1965. Data from World Bank and BP Statistical Review Beginning of the “IT revolution”
• 34. www.jancovici.com Dematerialization, where are you? CO2 emissions since 1860. Jancovici, on primary data from Shilling et al, and BP Statistical Review. Beginning of “IT revolution” + “renewable boom”
• 35. www.jancovici.com Producing is producing Assessment of various environmental impacts of the production of three “basic” IT devices. Source: The Shift Project, 2018
• 36. www.jancovici.com And virtue is not in sight Source: The Shift Project, 2018
• 37. www.jancovici.com Running is not so hard Assessment of various environmental impacts of the use phase of 4 “basic” IT devices. Source: The Shift Project, 2018
• 40. www.jancovici.com 0,68 - Smart motors 0,29 - Industrial process automation 0,1 - Dematerialisation - 7.8 Gt eqCO2 enabled by IT compared to a BAU scenario in 2020 (51.9 GtCO2e) (GteqCO2) As all economic activities, IT people are on the good side of the force Source: SMART 2020 Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age. GeSI, 2008. (page 17) 1,3 - Smart Logistics 0,5 - Private transport optimisation 0,14 - Dematerialisation 0,16 - Efficient vehicles 0,1 - Traffic flow monitoring, planning and simulation 0,22 - Smart logistic 1,68 - Smart Building 0,22 - Dematerialisation 0,28 - Smart Grid 1,75 - Smart Grid 0,4 - Efficient generation of power