AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010

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A monthly tracker of Irish consumers and their views on the prospects for economic recovery as well as their intentions in relation to spending, saving, borrowing and paying down debts.

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AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator March 2010

  1. 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator March 2010 Results © Amárach Research 2009
  2. 2. 2 Timing Recovery Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely • This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to March 2010 • The fieldwork was conducted on 8th to 14th March 2010
  3. 3. 3 A Matter of Measurement • Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ • Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
  4. 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement • The general sense in March remains very consistent with February, albeit with a marginal increase in the recovery index. Similarly to February; when it comes to the economy, there is still a divide between it is ‘bad but stable or improving’ and it is ‘bad and getting worse’. April’09 0% March’10 0% April’09 1% March’10 2% April’09 77% March’10 36% April’09 8% March’10 27% April’09 14% March’10 34%
  5. 5. Recovery Indicator • Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak) • The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010, more gradual growths are evident over the February and March periods. 30 27.1 25 22.7 23.5 20 19.6 17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3 16.3 17 15 15 10 8.3 5 0 Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar
  6. 6. 6 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 48% 41% 43% 41% 42% 41% 44% 42% 43% 46% 34% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 65% 58% 55% 61% 55% 54% 57% 59% 60% 62% 51% 51% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar
  7. 7. 7 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 45% 45% 50% 47% 43% 48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 56% 55% 53% 59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 55% 52% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar
  8. 8. 8 Other Sentiment Indicators from ARI Survey • Percent of adults who agree with each statement: February 2010 and March 2010 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more News from other than before because of countries suggests the spending money than I was a few months ago the recession recession will end soon 35% 40% 26% 25% 18% 18% February March February March February March I would be happy to Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to borrow from a bank if I main financial priority buy a house for those need to who want to 62% 61% 62% 64% 29% 30% February March February March February March
  9. 9. 9 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to March 2010 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar '09 '10
  10. 10. 10 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to March 2010 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar '09 '10
  11. 11. 11 AIB Contact Details Amárach Contact Details Ronan Sheridan Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Group Press Officer Amárach Research AIB 11 Kingswood Business Centre Bankcentre Citywest Business Campus Ballsbridge Dublin 24 Dublin 4 T. (01) 410 5200 T. (01) 641 4651 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com M. 086 388 0898 W. www.amarach.com B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

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