Dr. Peter Shea Does Online Learning Inhibit or Support Community College Student Success? Using a nationally representative sample (The Beginning Postsecondary Student Survey, BPS 04/09), this study examined the associations between enrollment in credit-bearing distance education courses and degree attainment. We sought to determine whether US students enrolled in online/distance education courses during their first year of study at a community college tend to complete a degree (certificate, associate, or bachelor’s) at significantly lower rates than those who were not enrolled in such courses or programs. Unlike previous researchers, our findings indicated that students who take some of their early courses online or at a distance have a significantly better chance of attaining a community college credential than do their classroom-only counterparts. Implications for policy, practice, and theory related to student attrition, persistence, and success will be discussed. presentation at the 15th annual SLN SOLsummit 2014 February 26, 2014 http://slnsolsummit2014.edublogs.org

1. Dr. Peter Shea, Senior Researcher, SLN
University at Albany, SUNY
Dr. Temi Bidjerano
Furman University

2. 




Open SUNY – Open Journal
Editor for the Journal of Asynchronous
Learning Networks (JALN)
Reinvigorating the journal
You are invited!
http://jaln.sloanconsortium.org/
Register to be considered as a reviewer
 http://jaln.sloanconsortium.org/index.php/i
ndex/user/register


5. 
What is it?

6. What is it?
 “Avoidable” drop out?


7. What is “access”?
 “Full” benefits of higher education
 Role of OLL in improving access to
benefits
 Previous theoretical and empirical work
 New national study

› Question, methods, results, discussion

8. How do we measure access to HE?
 Access to what?
 What is the role of flexibility and
convenience of online learning?
 Has online learning improved access?
How do we know?
 Not as obvious as you might think…


10. 
Many (not all) of these benefits are
contingent on completing a degree, not
simply going to college…

12. US not producing sufficient numbers of
college graduates
 Losing competitive advantage in the global
economy (Hebel, 2006; Kelderman, 2013)
 Community Colleges:

› Six year national completion rates less than 20%
› Justifiably or not, community colleges are target
of criticism
› But community colleges crucial to supporting US
economy (College Board, 2008).

14. Spending on community college students
has poor return on degree attainment
 Delta project (Kirshtein & Wellman, 2012)

› “…half of instructional spending in community
colleges goes to students (and credits) that do
not attach to a degree or certificate” (p. 16)
› Raises questions about efforts to increase access
to community college students
› Is it expensive and inefficient relative to benefits?

16. 
Dramatic growth: 5.5-7M+ online enrollments in US

Most of them community college students but…

Does online learning merely increase the pool of a
costly population of higher education learners who
do not complete?

Crazy, right? Strong evidence that this may be the
case…

But first, what theories inform research on degree
completion?

17. Pre-entry
Attributes
Goals
Institutional
Experience
Assumes
these as
“given”
Integration
Goals
Outcome
Why univariate
outcome?
Assumes
these as
“given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?

18. 
„„We label none of the thirteen
propositions of Tinto‟s theory as reliable
knowledge [about] commuter colleges”
(Braxton & Lee, 2005)

19. Assumes
these as
“given”
academic
variables
academic
outcomes
learner
characteristics
decision to
Drop-out
environment
environment
al variables
al variables
psychological
outcomes
Assumes
these as
“given”
Where is institutional response? Where are “interventions”?

20. Other Models: Falcone, 2012
Assumes
these as
“given”
Multivariate
Outcomes
Assumes
these as
“given”

21. 
What solid evidence do we have about
online learning, degree completion,
persistence, transfer etc?

23. 
Online learning outcomes worse
› Smith Jaggars & Xu, 2010; Xu & Smith
Jaggars, 2011
Data: N=24,000 in 23 institutions in Virginia
Community College System
 More failing/withdrawing from online
 Online students less likely to return
 Students w higher proportion of credits
online less likely to attain credential /transfer
to 4 year institution


24. Data: N=51,000 in 34 institutions in
Washington State Community College
System (Xu & Smith Jaggars, 2011)
 Students with better preparation more
likely to enroll in online courses…
 But more likely to fail/withdraw
 Students who took more online courses
less likely to complete degree or transfer


25. Best evidence does not support strategy
of increasing access via online ed
 Produces more college students but
fewer with vital college credentials
 OLL less efficient/effective in goal of
producing more college grads in US
 Questionable results re. “meaningful”
access


26. Our study uses a national, rather than
state samples of community college
students
 Question: Does a national sample yield
same results?


28. Initial analysis of this NCES data revealed
interesting patterns
 Community College student seemed to
do better with some distance courses
 Even better when the courses were
online …


29. Cumulative persistence and attainment anywhere 2008-09
Attained
Attained
Attained
No degree,
bachelor's degree associate's degree
certificate
still enrolled
No degree,
left without
return
Total
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
30.7
9.3
9.4
15
35.5
100%
8.9
13.5
9.6
8
15.1
14.3
35.2
38
100%
100%
0.37
0.38
0.55
0.65
Estimates
Total
Distance education 2004: Took courses
No
31.2
Yes
26.3
Standard Error (BRR)
Total
0.56
52% higher associates degree
attainment?

30. Cumulative persistence and attainment anywhere 2008-09
Attained
Attained
bachelor's associate's
degree
degree
Attained No degree, No degree,
certificate
still
left
enrolled
without
return
Total
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
30.7
9.3
9.4
15
35.5
100%
Distance education used 2004: Internet
No
31.2
Yes
25.5
8.9
14.1
9.6
7.3
15
15.1
35.3
38
100%
100%
0.37
0.38
0.55
0.65
Estimates
Total
Standard Error (BRR)
Total
0.56
58% higher associates degree
attainment?

31. Does not account for other factors
 Possible that initial differences among
these two groups accounts for the higher
degree completion rate
 Took steps to control for initial differences
between students in two groups


32. Degree attainment modeled as a
function of enrollment in online/distance
education courses at a community
college
 Controlling for a range of background
characteristics


33. (a) person variables: gender, age, race, risk index of
dropping out (NCES derived), disability status, remedial
coursework eligibility, traditional high school diploma or
not (GED, certificate of completion, homeschooled), type
of high school (public, private, other), total amount of
loans during the first year etc.
 (b) family variables: gross adjusted family income, parents‟
highest level of education, family size, siblings in college
before respondent, parents taking college courses,
parents‟ place of birth (U.S. vs. not);
 (c) institutional variables: distance from home, historically
black institution, Hispanic serving institution, accreditation,
in-state institution, size of enrollment, percent of student
body receiving federal grants, and type of institution (rural,
suburban, urban or other).


34. Matching attempts to mimic
randomization in experimental design
 Create a sample that received the
treatment (DE/Online Ed)
 Comparable on all 40 observed
covariates to a sample that did not
receive the treatment
 Look at differences between these now
matched samples


35. 
Data for BPS 04/09 collected from 16,100
first time beginning students at three points
in time (in spring of 2004, 2006, 2009)

Participants in BPS represent target
population of approximately 4,000,000 first
time beginning post secondary students.

43.1% were first enrolled in two-year
institutions offering associate‟s or certificate
degree.

36. Net of 40 factors: More likely to take distance/online courses
› Female students (p<.001), older students (p<.001), students from
larger families (p<.05), students with a higher amount of
institutional aid (p<.01) and loans (p<.05)
› Students whose residence was at a greater distance from the
institution
› At greater risk of not completing a degree were somewhat more
likely to be enrolled in distance education courses (p<.10).
Net of 40 factors: Less likely to take distance/online courses
› African –American students as compared to white students
(p<.001)
› Students who had indicated that location (p<.05) represents a
reason for attending a particular institution.

37. 
Positive Effects:
› Number of months of full time enrollment increase the chances
of degree attainment (B=.062, p<.001).
› Students whose initial goal was to earn a certificate were about
three times more likely to graduate (B = 1.168, p<.001)

Neutral Effects
› No differences in the odds of degree completion between
students with plans for a bachelor and those with a goal to earn
an associate degree (B =.184, p>.05).
› Number of institutions attended does not decrease the odds for
degree (B = .072, n.s.).

Negative Effects
› The number of periods of interruptions in continuous enrollment
had a negative effect on the likelihood of degree attainment
(B=-.232, p<.01)

38. 
Distance Education Students:
At higher risk for dropout
 Didn‟t attend private high schools
 Maybe not better prepared?
 Despite this…


40. Net of 40 other factors DE/online learners
were 1.25 times as likely to attain any
credential
 When credential goal was certificate
(rather than BA) DE/online learners were
3.22 times as likely to succeed


41. Net of other differences the odds of
graduating increase for students with
early distance education coursework
 Participation in online/distance learning
does not appear to impede degree
completion – perhaps facilitates it.


42. Course
Persistence
Re-enrollment Preparedness
or
Transfer
Degree
Completion
Virginia Study
OLLs Lower
OLLs Lower
-
OLLs Lower
Washington
Study
OLLs Lower
OLLs Lower
OLLs more
prepared
OLLs Lower
-
OLLs same or
less prepared?
OLLs 1.25X3.2X Higher
National Study -
OLLs = Online Learners

43. Includes institutional
response

44. Peter Shea, PhD
Associate Professor
Educational Theory and Practice &
College of Computing and Information
University at Albany, State University of
New York
pshea@albany.edu

45. 
Several notable findings:
› Unlike previous researchers (Xu & Smith
Jaggars, 2010; Smith-Jaggars and Xu, 2011)
› We did not find that students who
participated in online/distance education
were better-prepared academically
› The online/distance students were about the
same or maybe less well prepared

46. Despite potential initial disadvantage did
not replicate findings that online/distance
community college students were less likely
to complete a college credential.
 National level data yields the opposite
conclusion.
 Evidence suggests that early participation
in online learning and distance education
predicts higher rates of community college
degree attainment.


47. 




Women overrepresented in DE/Online courses
DE/Online students more likely to receive
financial aid and have loans
An artifact of higher levels of enrollment in
private, for profit institutions?
For profits have demonstrated capacity to
ensure DE students get maximum financial aid
relative to public institutions (Clayton, 2011)
Federal student loan data indicates students at
for-profit institutions borrow more (and default
more frequently) than those at public
institutions (US Dept of Education, 2010)