A Brave New World - Findings from Frost & Sullivans's Report. "Mega Trends affecting the logistics and infrastructure sectors in Africa to 2020." Presented by Mani James at the annual Road Freight Association's Convention in May 2015.

1. Delivering to the Cities of Tomorrow
Global Mega Trends and the Future of Urban Logistics

2. Agenda
Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future
Influencing Urban Logistics
Urban Logistics Business Models of the Future
Macro to Micro : How To Apply Mega Trends Within Your
Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies
Introduction and Definition of Urban Logistics
2

3. “Only those who will risk
going too far can possibly
find out how far one can go.”
– T.S. Eliot

4. What are Mega Trends
4
It can happen without you noticing it !!!

5. African Mega Trends
5
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urbanisation
Social Trends Bricks and Clicks
Connecting the
Unconnected
New Business Models Future Infrastructure
Smart is the new green

6. 6
What is Urban Logistics?
Transportation
& Distribution
Activities
Warehousing
Activities
Value-Added
Activities
Urban Logistics offers unique tailor-made solutions for the transport of goods in cities by
consolidating & rationalizing the existing logistics platforms & creating innovative
solutions for the future through the use of information and communication technologies
In-Bound
Transportation
Outbound
Transportation
Storage
Inventory
Management
Planning /
Marketing
Other
Optimisation
Techniques
Examples of typical urban logistics activities

7. Global Mega Trends
and Urban Logistics

8. 8
Mega Trends Driving Urban Logistics Industry
Urbanisation
Connectivity and
Convergence Bricks & Clicks Future Infrastructure
Development
1 2 3 4
By 2025, 3 out of 5
people will live in cities
globally
By 2025, each person
will have a minimum of
five connected devices
By 2025, 20% of retail
will happen through
online channels
By 2025, globally over
$800 billion will be
spent on high speed rail
projects.
What does this mean for Urban Logistics?
500 million deliveries
per person per day to
cities
‘On-the-fly’ deliveries
will have to made
anywhere, anyhow,
faster and quicker
Demand for urban
parcel deliveries will
increase – shipments to
become smaller and
frequent
An fuel and carbon
efficient alternative to
road and air transport
and muti-modality.

9. Top Mega Trends in Africa
Source: Frost & Sullivan
3 Mega Cities by 2025
9
8 Mega Corridors by
2025
70 Satellite Towns by
2025
4 Mega Regions by
2025

10. 10
Mega Trend 1 : Urbanisation
Mega Cities in Africa: Engines of Economic Growth
> 75% Urbanization rate by 2025
Johannesburg
10 Million
(2025)
Luanda
8.9 Million
(2025)
Kinshasa
14.5 Million
(2025)
Lagos
18.8 Million
(2025)
Cairo
14.7 Million
(2025)
Cities >6 million population by 2025
Mega Cities
Nairobi
7 Million
(2025)
Alexandria
6.2 Million
(2025)
Khartoum
7.1 Million
(2025)Abidjan
7 Million
(2025)
Dar es Salaam
7.2 Million
(2025)164.1
35.2
101.0
253.2
47.9
124.6
79.5
12.1
57.7
24.5
47.3
103.0
21.6
87.6
5.8
19.5
30.5
48.4
GDP (Nominal) ($ Billion) in 2014
GDP (Nominal) ($ Billion) by 2025
Mega Cities, City –level GDP and
Population, Africa, 2014-2025
Mega City is defined as a city
with population of over 8
million
31.7
68.4
Source: Business Insider; UN population Database, 2014 Revision; African Development Bank; Frost & Sullivan

11. Mega Trend 1 : Urbanisation
Mega Corridors: Reconfiguring Africa’s Space and Economy
Source: UN-Habitat, 2014; Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Combined
population >18.0
million
Combined GDP of
$127,592,000.
North-South
Corridor
The Greater Ibadan
Lagos Accra
(GILA) Corridor
The North Delta
Region
Combined
Population: 533.0
Million
Combined GDP of
$833.00 billion or
58% of Africa’s
GDP
More than 50%
of National GDP
Abidjan
Ouagadougou
Ibadan
Accra
Luanda
Kinshasa
Cape Town
Durban
Johannesburg
Dar es Salaam
Nairobi
Addis Ababa
A
Future Corridor
Development
1,000 km Abidjan-
Ouagadougou Corridor
Trans-Cunene Corridor
between DRC with SA
through Angola and
Namibia.
Kampala-Nairobi-
Mombasa urban corridor
(900 km )
A
B
B
C
C
a
Mega Corridors, Africa, 2025
$
Combined
population of
77.0 million
$
$
b
c
a
b
c

12. 12
Mega Trend 1 : Urbanisation
Urbanisation Will Compel Logistics Companies To Have More
Spokes in the Cities and Lesser Hubs
The Hubs:
Central Distribution Centres in
the outskirts
Heavy Commercial
Vehicles (double trailer
trucks) will carry goods to
big warehouses at outskirts
Spokes:
Drop off-points for deliveries
in city centres
Medium and Light
CVs will deliver goods
to warehouses within
city
Outer Ring Road
25 miles from City
Centre
80% - 100% load factor
In-night services, Early-
morning deliveries
Reduce the number of
trips by almost half
100% on-time deliveries

13. 13
Mega Trend 2 : Connectivity and Convergence
Reactive Proactive
Telematics
Intelligent
Transport
Systems
Social Media
Integration
2010
Sensors and
Terrain
Mapping
Traffic
Predicting
Software
Real-time is Too Late…
2015
2020
2025
Cloud Logistics
‘On-the-Fly’ Deliveries
Individually optimized
transport solution
Quality Control ‘On the
Move’
Urban Lead Logistics
Urban logistics
opportunities
Logistics Technology to Become More Proactive than Reactive

14. Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025
Accounting for 19% of Total Retail
“More the ‘Clicks’ More the Truck Mileage”
$11.8
Trillion
$23
Trillion
$18.7
Trillion
$11.25
Trillion
$4.3
Trillion
$0.55
Trillion
United
States
China United
Kingdom
Japan Germany
24% 18% 25% 10% 15%
1 2 3 4 5
$1.32
Trillion
$1.30
Trillion
$0.19
Trillion
$0.17
Trillion $0.95
Trillion
% share of online in total retail
Online Sales Non-Online Sales
5%
95%
19%
81%
Mega Trend 3 : Bricks and Clicks

15. The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an
Integrated Cross Channel Model Demanding For Multiple Delivery Options
Source: Frost &
Sullivan Analysis
Department
Stores
Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile Payments Mobile Apps
Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2000)
Interactive StoresVirtual Stores Hyper Online
Markets
The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)
15

16. 16
Same-Day Night Time Click ‘n’ Collect Locker Boxes
Frequent
Deliveries
Inventory
Visibility
Cold
Supply
Chain
Services
Multiple
Delivery
Options
Refrigerated
Locker Boxes
Smaller
Shipments
Urban Logistics Solutions
Ecommerce pressures on the supply chain
Retail Logistics Will Innovate Its Last Mile Offering Multiple
Delivery Options From Home Delivery to Self-Collect

17. In Future, HS Rail will not only offer high speed personal mobility
but will also transport cargo at a lesser fuel and carbon cost
What are the Opportunities?
• Higher Speed Logistics
• Intermodal Logistics
• Next-day delivery between continents
• More fuel-efficient than Air-Road Mix
• Night-time multimodal logistics (e.g. no night time
flight restrictions)
Project Examples:
• Eurocarex – High Speed Freight Train Between
Lyon and London
• Bangalore-Chennai High Speed Freight Train
• China’s Mixed Passenger-Freight High Speed
Trains
Mega Trend 4 : Higher Speed Logistics

18. Urban Logistics
Trends and Business
Models

19. 19
$2.55
trillion
$5.98
Trillion
50%
32%
18%
55%
23%
22%
Transportation & Distribution
Warehousing
Value-Added
2011 2020
2.5xUrban Logistics Spending
How will demand for urban logistics affect the spending on
logistics in urban environments ?

20. 20
How will urban freight transportation change?
Road to remain the dominant mode of urban freight transport. Logistics Related
Transport Will Account For Over 35% Of Urban Freight Traffic
B2C trips will Come to rival the current dominant segment, B2B by 2020
underpinned by growth in ecommerce
Average length of haul will decrease as warehouses and delivery spokesmove
further into cities
100% Loading Factor of Trucks – Full Optimisation
Smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles will be used within cities which are
seamlessly integrated with multi-modal functionalities (roll on-roll off)

21. 21
Future of Road Transport: Truck Concept 2020
Engine &
Fuel
Design
Driver
Support
Connectivity
• Lighter weight
vehicles (Plastic
Shell)
• Low loading floor
constructions
• Roll on-roll off
systems
• Tire Pressure
Monitoring
System, Driver
Distraction
Warning, Adaptive
cruise control
• Vehicle to grid
Communication,
Navigation, green
routing, terrain
mapping, On-
Board Traffic
analysing tools,
Geo-fencing, and
Smart sensors
• Electric
• Hybrids/Fuel cell
Fleets
• CNG
• HCCI
The Concept of future delivery vans will revolve around
technology, carbon footprint, fuel efficiency and Aerodynamics

22. Without Consolidation Centres
With Consolidation Centres
Distribution will become more Consolidated and Move Toward the
City Centre
Consolidation centre

23. 23
Urban Transhipment
Areas
Urban Consolidation
Centres
Urban Intermodal
Hubs
Locker BoxesMicrodistribution
Mobile Depots / Freight
Buses
Future of Consolidation and Last Mile Delivery
More Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban
Areas
Types of Urban Distribution
Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries
Mobile Collection Postal Service

24. 24
How are Cities managing Urban Logistics?
Through vehicle access restriction, economic instruments, and special
infrastructure, city governments and municipalities are planning for an
urban future
Access
Restriction
Economic
Instruments
Special
Infrastructure
Low Emission Zones
Time Windows
Vehicle Weight
Restrictions
Congestion Charging
Incentives & Subsidies
Freight Lanes
Urban Consolidation
Centre
Loading /
Unloading Areas

25. 25
City of Paris Parking Bays London Congestion Zone
Barcelona Night Time Window Italy’s Urban Consolidation Centres
Examples of Cities experimenting with Urban Freight Measures

26. 26
How are Logistics Services Providers Scaling up to meet demand for
Urban Logistics?
Transportation Technology
2008
Distribution
2010
2012
2015
2020
Off-Peak
Deliveries
Multimodal
Deliveries
Hybrid / Electric
Fleet / Shared
Fleet
Autonomous
Fleet (Self-
Monitoring
Vehicles)
Consolidation
Centres
Locker Boxes
Pick-Up Vans /
Self- Collection
Points
Lifestyle Carriers
Proprietary EDI
Telematics / Real
Time Solution
Vehicle Tech
(Smart Trucks
with Sensors)
Cloud Logistics
FuturePast

27. 27
Examples of Logistics Service Providers Experimenting with Urban
Logistics Models
DHL Consolidation Centre TNT Express Tricycles
TNT Express Bento BoxFedex Smart Ecommerce
Solutions
UPS-Kiala
Geodis Distropolis

28. 28
Top Industries Using Urban Logistics Services in the Future
Retail ApparelPharmaceutical
Food &
Beverages
Smaller Stores Generic Medicines
Chilled and Frozen
Food
Bricks and Clicks
Industry
Trend
Urban
Logistics
Implication
Smaller shelf size –
need for constant
replenishment
No more
homogenous single
supply chain model
Chilled and Frozen
Food
Free Shipping –
Low cost services
Urban
Logistics
Services
Retail
Consolidation
Centres
Pack-to-order
Cold Supply Chain
Services
Self-pickups

29. So what will the future of Urban Logistics look like in 2025
1. A minimum of 500 million deliveries per day will be made within cities by 2025.
2. People will volunteer to deliver goods on their way home becoming lifestyle
couriers
3. Access to cities in the future will be guided by Smart Cards and e-Tags
4. Information Driven Logistics will become the norm with providers planning
delivery trips even before orders are placed through predictive analysis and
social media integration
5. Logistics companies will innovate to overcome the future urban challenge
introducing hybrid fleets, consolidated deliveries and locker boxes among others
innovations for cities
6. City planners will reinforce and introduce new policy measures to control vehicle
access, provide economic incentive for sustainable freight deliveries, and invest in
infrastructure such as freight villages
29

30. Macro Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to
Strategy Implementation
Mega Trend
Selected trends that impact your
business and markets
Sub Trend
A sub-layer of trends that has a
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry
Visualising the roadmap of these
critical forces through scenario-
building and macro economic
forecasts
Impact on Future Product/
Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and
Unmet Needs
To
30

31. Learn More About “New Mega Trends”
Upcoming Book:
New Mega Trends
Implications for our Future Lives
By Sarwant Singh
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=5774
23
Join Our Mega Trend Group On
Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on
Frost & Sullivan Research
31

32. Frost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation Subscription
Provides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific
Topics by Industry Verticals
32
A
Global Mega Trends
Analysis
• Featuring global study updates
annually and analysis of key
topics like Urbanisation, Smart is
the New Green, Health, Wellness
and Well Being
B
Regional Mega Trends
and Implications
• Analysis of global Mega Trends in
key geographies such as
1. Africa
2. India
3. China
4. Latin America
• Identification of specific
regional trends (e.g.,
beneficiation in Africa)
C
Focus on Specific Mega
Trends and Their Impact by
Industry
• Focus on specific Topics e.g. the
Impact of Connectivity and
Convergence on Healthcare
Devices, Urban Logistics .
• There will be over 30 such topics
completed in next 12 months
360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on Industries

33. Contact Information
Mani James
Commercial Director, Africa
+27 21 680 3208
mani.james@frost.com
33