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ISNGI 2016 - Speaker: Dr Tim Williams "Something short of utopia - the infrastructure challenge of making great cities"

  2. “The infrastructure challenge of making great cities”… No link at moment infrastructure provision isn’t about making great cities. Cities are orphans of public policy, under powered, under resourced, under-or mis-governed : with inappropriate appraisal processes. City Deals can help Today I’m going to talk about: • Cities and why are we talking about them - Trends shaping them/policy responses • Infrastructure Appraisal process: it is broke, do fix it :City outcomes vs. siloed modal thinking and metrics/BCA is a farce. Tolling distorts/need new funding mechanisms - Next gen infrastructure? Paint, brains, coordination, place-making first! - Drones?! Flying before we can walk/Public transport maybe quite important too: 2 hours to Wollongong - Sort out demand not just supply/density done well in city of 8m not sprawl which is worsening equity and city performance • City governance: no smart city without smart governance and data: ‘Trust in God;everyone else bring data’ • Data driven responsive city • City-making in a digital era: or driverless cars in rudderless cities/Irish question • Future:City Deals?
  3. Cities are it
  4. New National Approach to Cities “Historically the federal government has had a limited engagement with cities, and yet that is where most Australians live. It is where the bulk of our economic growth can be found. We often overlook the fact that liveable cities, efficient productive cities, the environment of cities, are economic assets. Making sure our cities and indeed our regional centres are wonderful places to live should be a key priority of every level of government” (Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull). It isn’t(appraisal and governance) and they aren’t (all).
  5. Cities – where the world’s population and wealth is going:
  6. 2050 metropolitan population:in aus too there is a ‘re-urbanisation of the economy ‘going on
  7. Where is the money going?
  8. Growth since 2000. Source: Brookings Global Metro Monitor (2015) New patterns of growth and change blue is the one to watch
  9. 9 Where is the money going? Top 20 cities for commercial real estate momentum, 2015 Source: Jones Lang LaSalle 9
  10. 10 And the South is increasingly central to global financial flows and knowledge transfers
  11. 11
  12. Talking about money: low public debt borrow now it’s cheap
  13. BTW/Wealthier Aus in a booming south: 2.5% :Aus grew 20% since GFC;US 9%, EU :0%:overtake UK in 25 years 14
  14. One example of why cities matter to Australia Sydney Financial Services alone= Mining in WA: bigger by value than HK and Singapore FS BTW
  15. City economies are increasingly recognized as the heart of the national economic picture Sydney’s GDP growth: 4% in 2014 Greater Sydney share of wealth rose to 23% and national FS exceeded contribution of mining: 30% of national growth in 2014/15 came from Sydney
  16. City Projects 1 Singapore 409 2 London 334 3 Shanghai 245 4 Dubai 234 5 New York 169 6 Hong Kong 162 7 Sydney 125 8 Beijing 97 9 Bangalore 97 10 Tokyo 96 11 Dublin 91 12 Paris 90 13 San Francisco 90 14 Melbourne 88 15 São Paulo 87 16 Kuala Lumpur 69 17 Helsinki 68 18 Amsterdam 63 19 Mexico City 62 20 Toronto 62 Australian cities: very strong investment destinations Global greenfield FDI 2014 Source: fDi Markets Brisbane ranked 5th and Perth 16th globally for FDI Strategy City 10 Munich 11 Sydney 16 Stockholm 17 Berlin 23 Melbourne 24 Hamburg 29 Toronto 37 Copenhagen 47 Brisbane 56 Stuttgart 57 Calgary 65 Perth 78 Montreal 86 Adelaide 90 Vancouver Cross- border real estate investment Source: JLL Global 300 Source: Greg Clark
  17. And people:Sydney growing twice as fast as London but Melbourne faster: will surpass Source: Bernard Salt, KPMG
  18. 375,100 740,900 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2012 2061 ACT population growth (ABS Series B) +98% ACT overtakes Tasmania’s pop in 2038: faster than Sydney /does not include NSW areas in city region:up or out?
  19. Arthur D Little Urban Mobility Index 4 Copenhagen 1 0 Helsinki 1 1 Munich 1 3 Berlin 3 6 Montreal 3 8 Toronto 4 6 Sydney 5 0 Melbourne IESE Cities in Motion, Transport, 2015 4 Copenhagen 9 Helsinki 10 Munich 15 Stockholm 17 Berlin 32 Oslo 35 Melbourne 63 Toronto 89 Vancouver 95 Sydney 111 Montreal 122 Ottawa Based on traffic, subway provision, modal split, bike sharing, smart cards etc Australian cities: weak transport and infrastructure platforms Source: Greg Clark
  20. 21 Cities of low density: sprawl, dispersed suburbia = about 35% density of LA! Will Sydney carry on with this model as we go from 4 to 8m? Up/out? Roads spread/PT agglomerates
  21. #Designperth study showed that for every 1000 dwellings developed in infill sites, it costs the government 3x as much to provide infrastructure for greenfield sites Even though sprawl costs more!
  22. More emissions
  23. Road building :heart of sprawl in Aus cities: infrastructure appraisal process enables this;and is worsening this..
  24. Divided city:western Sydney sprawl v Compact city of East=poorer health outcomes/lack of walkability /commute
  25. 27 Sprawl =lack of social mobility/health:appraisal!!• Social mobility — the extent to which children manage to achieve a higher socioeconomic status than their parents — is lower in Atlanta than it is in Detroit. • So what’s the matter with Atlanta? Harvard study suggests that the city may just be too spread out, so that job opportunities are literally out of reach for people stranded in the wrong neighbourhoods. Sprawl may be killing social mobility • The apparent inverse relationship between sprawl and social mobility obviously reinforces the case for “smart growth” urban strategies, which try to promote compact centres with access to public transit • Our appraisal process does not see it that way • Roads before public transport ; roads before congestion charging even though you cannot reduce congestion by building roads: induced demand problem never considered sufficiently • Sometimes taking our roads helps congestion and creates more value in cities: never considered in BCAs
  26. Only road pricing works re congestion: BCAs seldom consider it for political reasons “As a ground-breaking study of congestion management in Los Angeles by the RAND Corporation puts it: ‘any package of reforms that does not include pricing strategies will not achieve lasting reductions in traffic congestion’” Then we build roads which don’t sort congestion or reduce travel times: oh and we don’t evaluate infrastructure performance afterwards…to improve the process
  27. Induced demand: triple convergence “Induced demand happens when increasing the supply of roadways actually triggers demand to use them, especially when the supply is free or under- priced. That is, supply can actually create demand. Extra supply does this through initially lowering driving times thereby causing more people to drive and thus cancelling out all initial reductions in congestion. Congestion constrains growth in peak- period trips, but if road capacity is increased, peak- period trips also increase until congestion again constrains traffic growth. This is the ‘triple convergence’ of induced demand.”
  28. Benefits of Congestion Charge - Stockholm • Recurring charge designed to distribute cars throughout the city • Traffic reduction of 18% • Public transport increase of 4.5 • Retailers reported a 6% increase in business • ‘But we needed an expensive new road to sort congestion out’
  29. Next generation infrastructure might making taking stuff out….
  30. And putting green ,walkable stuff in:the road killed value/ induced congestion
  31. • Janette Sadik-Khan • Pedestrian and cycling upgrades in New York: garden chairs on Broadway • Economic uplift • Retail sales improvements • Liveable, productive ,accessible Who needs expensive infrastructure to change a city?Cheap prototyping to show direction
  32. Cheap change :2007-12 retailers income increased 170%: Paint as next gen infrastructure
  33. Street Fight • Janette Sadik-Khan • “To be successful over the long term, we knew we had to be smart about measuring the street, but getting the data isn’t easy. It required that we first create an economic methodology. Working with our sister agency, the Department of Finance, which collects taxes and revenue for New York City, we obtained detailed, aggregated retail sales data for the dozens of locally owned storefronts, restaurants, and markets on the streets where we introduced bike lanes, bus lanes, and plazas across the city. We compared the results on these streets with boroughwide and citywide retail sales as a control group. What we found was astonishing: stores along streets where changes had been made reported increased sales, far outperforming overall businesses across the boroughs.” • Street Fight: Handbook for an Urban Revolution (2016) • Walking’s quite cheap too
  34. 38 But not in the suburbs: Why people don’t walk in Aus cities: we have designed walking out … • First we shape our streets then they shape us • Corner store less than 5 mins walk: we walk • Lynx light rail in Charlotte; within year people nr it were walking 1.2m a day extra and lost 6 kilos. • People don’t walk in aus cities because we have designed destinations out of reach;kids put on weight in summer hols in aus…. • Does getting to a grocer’s or a doctor or a restaurant without a car seem like a pretty big burden? Can your children walk or cycle to school safely on their own? If you think these are unreasonable questions then choice has been designed out of your area • Public transit revolution? • Compact city? • Retrofitting suburbia • Or business as usual: quite important to utility planners!
  35. Big global trends:’bright flight’ back to inner city ‘smaller homes, shared spaces, bigger lifestyles’: time-hungry
  36. Universities all heading back to cities:and Pheonix connects by light rail 40
  37. 42 bB
  38. 43 Knowledge economy jobs vs housing dispersal:poverty not inner city but suburban Dispersedhousing & jobs model(1930-2001) Knowledgeeconomy agglomeration since 1990’s
  39. Virtually no-one in Sydney lives in 30 minute city :structural shift required/PT
  40. 45
  41. 46 str
  42. Two Sydneys:what happens as we densify and double to 8m? • Dickens wrote his novel, A Tale of Two Cities, about London and Paris. A writer with similar ambitions today could easily stay in one city and write a tale of two Sydneys. • In one Sydney, people live within 10 kilometres of the city centre, where there is almost one job for every resident, and public transport is close by and comes fairly frequently. • The inner suburbs, which from 2006 have soaked up more than half the city’s overall employment growth, stand in stark contrast to the Sydney more than 20 kilometres from the city centre. • There are three jobs for every 10 western Sydney residents, compared to eight in 10 for people in suburbs within 10 kilometres of the centre. Outer suburban jobs also pay much less: across the nation, an average of $56,000 a year compared to $77,000 for those near the centre. • Yet today more than half of Sydney’s population lives more than 20 kilometres from the city centre. And it is this outer Sydney where most population growth is occurring. By 2030s a majority of Sydney’s population will be west of Parramatta. The increasing separation between jobs and people in our large cities is Australia’s great new divide: the city of short and indeed walkable journeys v city of long commutes
  43. Source: Bernard Salt, KPMG
  44. Vertical fiscal imbalance – cities underfunded: with no metro self-gov: although Sydney now has GSC: our tools and resources are poor for city management
  45. Has been difficult to get on top of this .The symbolic Sydney challenge : governance matters to city performance:9-5 but still…Denver contrast and local tax raising for city decided priorities Source: Urban Taskforce
  46. Case Study: Denver, Colorado • FasTracks plan passed in 2004 with a referendum • Big light rail and heavy rail extensions – including airport rail link
  47. FasTracks • $6 billion US plan • 0.5% tax increase approved • Engaged community/users/business • Bonds • And gets money from residential value uplift in local axes : Feds take that here • We must innovate around city income
  48. Externalities of agglomeration: the price of success: we have poor tools to manage them – not even good data at metro level • High costs: housing, labour, goods, living • Infrastructure investment demand • Social cohesion and integration • Two-tier labour market • Sprawl • Traffic congestion • Pollution • Opposition to growth model
  49. all roads lead to governance and cross gov collab: without , our infrastructure planning is silo’d and non city focussed Collaboration off • Sectoral policies lead • Autonomous bodies • Hierarchical system • Spatial disparities and variation • Low co-ordination equilibrium • Tax and transfer payments Collaboration on • Integrated planning • Cross cutting objectives • Networked governance • Spatial strategy and cohesion • Cross cutting/catalytic projects • High co-ordination equilibrium • Financial innovation and leverage:
  50. It doesn’t value things properly: area value uplift and city transformation via infrastructre • Since Bryant Park in New York was improved: – commercial rental values increased by 220% – house prices increased by 5-7% – properties within 2 blocks were more highly valued than equivalent properties further away (CABE Space, Does money grow on trees) – Value Capture for Public Sector is the challenge as the gains can be privatized while costs socialised 58
  51. CABE: Does Money Grow on Trees?we take em out • Yes. • • CABE Space has been contributing to a growing body of evidence that demonstrates how green spaces can offer lasting economic, social, cultural and environmental benefits. • “The benefits of good urban green spaces are diverse and wide ranging. Since the improvements to Bryant Park in New York , commercial rental values have increased by up to 220 per cent.” • “In 2005 CABE Space published Does money grow on trees?. It reported research that used property prices as an indication of the desirability of an area, and looked at whether improvements to parks and green spaces increased the economic activity in the area. It found that being directly adjacent to such parks added a 5 to 7 per cent premium to house prices, and that most properties within two blocks were priced more highly than equivalent properties that were in the same market area but further away.” • A well-designed, high-quality, connected public realm system can raise property values, enhance economic vitality and increase the tax base. 59
  52. GI=‘urban infrastructure hidden in plain site’:appraisal needs to recognise this • • The potential benefits that green infrastructure • can provide have been largely under- appreciated • and unrealised. Green infrastructure is an urban • infrastructure hidden in plain sight.’ 60
  53. And then we have this going on: towards the Data driven responsive city? • If that weren’t enough we now have this: What does this data driven digital/shared econ/IoT future/present mean for city management?
  54. Tech trends changing how councils/government operate: Australia’s first data driven and responsive city? • Open data • Data analytics • Online citizen engagement • GIS 62
  55. Data sharing and collaboration between city governments and digital cos:new PS delivery and last mile • The whole notion of PT changing and with it city planning – tech enabled MicroTransit/Uber : carless development?
  56. Seoul sharing city • Bringing all types of the collaborative economy together
  57. Chicago works for you
  58. Chicago: WindyGrid/array of things “What would a Fitbit for Chicago look like?” • Monitoring the “vital signs” of the city to make quicker and smarter decisions and allocate resources, eg. spatial data, emergency calls, transit and mobile locations, building information, geospatially-enabled public tweets • Provides: situational awareness, incident monitoring historical data retrieval, real-time advanced analytics • Open-source application – for improvement by other cities and developers
  59. Some examples: Kansas Smart City Corridor more than just transit: city management:NEXT GEN INFRASTRUCTURE PLUS RAIL/DATA ANALYTICS/IOT FEEDING BACK INTO CITY MANAGEMENT. HERE? George Street
  60. And then...Home of ‘Madame La Maire J’ai une idee’
  61. Not just govt creating public services: co-production online Waze: Community Based Traffic and Navigation
  62. NYC 311: data analytics and platform for understanding your place/service and changing it: what does it mean?
  63. Big city analytics complemented by local data and responses Microsoft- HereHereNYC
  64. Citizens as creators not just consumers • Really important Digitally engaged citizens come to see themselves as facilitators of public services, not just as consumers fighting for a bigger share of council pie . • Whereas consumers demand more services from govt, citizens demand more participation. BRIDGING GAP BETWEEN TECH AND LI[MPING WORLD OF GOVERNMENT can restore the public’s faith in politics and civil servants’ faith in public service . • GIVE PEOPLE NEW TOOLS AND GET THEM EXCITED ABOUT GOVERNMENT again. You can give People opportunities to be the agents of culture change.” • Save money/deliver more 72
  65. Collaborating with business and universities to compete: data sharing • Silos are helpful, when they’re the protective structures that store grain, but they’re a hindrance when it comes to big data. We’re collecting a near infinite amount of data these days, but much of it is tucked away by various entities that lack communication and sharing platforms. • Collaborations UNIVERSITIES AND CITY GOVS TOGETHER • Last month, Rice University and the City of Houston announced a data-sharing partnership as part of the national Smart City Initiative. • Rice brought on Klara Jelinkova, former chief information officer of the University of Chicago, to build an urban data platform specifically for the initiative. They will put data sets from their own researchers into the platform, as well as new sets from the City of Houston. The third step is still in the works. City department heads and researchers at Rice will soon meet to discuss what research questions are currently most important to the city. • “Every department collects different types of data, in different ways, at different times and for different purposes,” This is likely true both of the city and of Rice, and Kinder wants to do something about it. They’re structuring the Institute as an interdisciplinary entity, and they’re creating ties across sectors in Houston. • The Institute has collected, but not yet linked three data sets: about 30 years of public opinion surveys, Houston Independent School District student performance data, and Texas Medical Center’s health data. “When we connect this data we can connect the dots between education and health, absences and student performances, medical visits and medical problems. “the network of data-sharing partnerships that the Kinder Institute project creates will hopefully generate similar un-siloed synergy 75
  66. Procurement :public procurement eats innovation • Get hackers and coders not consultants. They are free to let their minds wander, hunting for problems, spitballing solutions.. • Procurement/Apps competitions/collaboration is less expensive and more innovative • With NYC BigApps, started in 2009 as the City’s first open data initiative, it has awarded $300,000 in prizes and received more than 500 submissions, engaging thousands of New Yorkers. • citizen coders can experiment and make mistakes, at no cost to the taxpayer, in the quest to create impactful solutions. By participating in the program, coders, as in Chicago, are mentored through the development process by agency representatives. Innovation is less constrained by red tape and products can be refined more efficiently. • Imagine being able to state a problem and then work cooperatively with companies to figure out a joint solution scalable across multiplier cities with payment to be allocated based on value added performance • Procurment :eBay for procurement invite solutions and collaboration online • Use hack days/social entrepreneurs and citizens ,procure for innovation 76
  67. Without improvements to city governance and infrastructure decision-making…• Without improvements to city governance and infrastructure decision- making and funding Aus will continue to miss out on the potential of its cities, as investment decisions are made without reference to their impact on the competitiveness and economic performance of its cities. • Major investment decisions must be shaped by a more holistic view of cities’ needs. This must start with the cities’ own growth imperative and be supported by strong risk analysis, rather than a narrow transport appraisal system that assumes the development of the economy is broadly independent of the transport system. • Cities need to have funding guarantees that cut across political cycles, fiscal devolution that allows cities to keep a greater proportion of the tax revenue generated by investment, and additional powers over transport services. • Better transport, land use planning and city devolution go hand in hand. 77
  68. Wrong Appraisal process to prioritise transport • There is a mismatch between federal and state governments’ ambition to boost jobs growth and economic prosperity in cities and the system used to prioritise transport investment and funding. • It is a system that developed during an era in which only modest budgets were available for managing the decline of cities: ill-suited to today when cities are once again the drivers of the country’s future growth and success. Investment decisions, often heralded as economic decisions, are made without reference to their impact on the competitiveness and economic performance of cities. • Centralised decision-making means transport decisions are evaluated independently of their impact on the economy or interaction with other policies, something which astonishes non- economists and even some politicians.
  69. Appraisal needs reform • The city-shaping and wider economic benefits of major transport infrastructure investment are under-recognised, • • Transport projects are not evaluated at a strategic level, or on the basis of the contribution they make to a preferred urban structure, and related economic or sustainability outcomes. They are typically conceived narrowly with only travel related benefits and costs in mind. Or top down with political selection for ‘pet projects’.
  70. Reform appraisal… • There is an insufficient understanding of the distinction between ‘city-shaping’ and ‘follower’ infrastructure in terms of project formulation, and through the investment process. City-shaping transport projects demand a more concerted ‘whole of government’ and spatial approach to evaluation because they will have cross- portfolio implications. Such projects should part of making metropolitan plans, which represent a comprehensive, cross agency ‘view of the future’. • • Cost Benefit Analysis is universally applied to evaluate projects but is inadequate for major city-shaping projects which have long lasting and reverberating effects on how a city ‘works’. Conventional CBA restricts measured impacts to ‘first round’ and direct effects of projects.
  71. Reform appraisal • Vertical fiscal imbalance in Australia means the states opt for projects which appear to satisfy national goals, such as freight route upgrades, rather than urban public transport projects which struggle to satisfy conventional cost benefit indicators. It also makes projects which can attract private financing such as toll roads, more attractive to states with limited revenue sources.
  72. “[CBA] has been of little use in developing long term plans or influencing decisions on large scale projects. Recent large projects have been announced as ‘happening’ by Government before CBAs have been completed or as in some recent examples even started. For these projects, CBA has become an exercise in retrospective justification with all the ensuing biases and cynicism that such a process entails [.…] it may instead be wiser to recast the problem at a higher planning level.” Douglas and Brooker, 2013 Appraisal process: It is broke, do fix it
  73. Identify city problem and do option appraisal Option appraisal “is often the most significant part of the analysis. Initially a wide range of options should be created and reviewed. This helps to set the parameters of an appropriate solution. A shortlist may then be created to keep the process manageable, by applying the techniques summarised below to high level estimates or summary data. The ‘do minimum’ option should always be carried forward in the shortlist, to act as a check against more interventionist action.” UK Green Book
  74. IA(too)politely pointing out current appraisal not robust • WestConnex was the major priority project put forward in Infrastructure NSW’s 2012 State Infrastructure Strategy. The Strategy employed a multi-criteria prioritisation framework to decide between infrastructure options. Infrastructure Australia believes a more robust analysis would have seen WestConnex considered against, and in conjunction with, a broader set of options for addressing Sydney’s longer term transport needs. The design for WestConnex has evolved from the original business case, and the cost of the project has increased. A more comprehensive options analysis may have identified these evolutions or other approaches earlier in the planning and delivery process, potentially mitigating some risks around project certainty and scope.
  75. What we do now…
  76. What we should do…
  77. A new city deal for Australia prototyped here? • A move, influenced by the emerging City Deals in the UK, from a federal government grant model for specific initiatives determined by centralised funding formulae and modal appraisal methods... • ….to a ‘city outcomes’ investment based approach determined by a city collaboration involving state and federal governments and the city council: a package of shared outcomes and investments agreed by the collaboration; and funds not for separate projects but a ‘city business plan’ or investment framework • Towards a multi-tier government/council(City Deals)accord • New approach to funding : preference for Strategic investment to deliver growth based upon the needs and potential of the area, rather than on siloed funding streams and the timing of government bidding rounds • Should also lead to reduced national and local bureaucracy via a local, more efficient appraisal and due diligence process,
  78. City Deals?Plus governance reform like GSC+ surely? • A clear shared vision and narrative • City deals = cross government/cross tier collaboration • Program or business plan for city shaping not just separate infrastructure projects • Defined plan for implementation and regular monitoring of progress • Hard and soft infrastructure • Hardest and most important thing: place management with infrastructure enabling growth in a timely coordinated way • Build on this? GSC for every city? Metro self govt!

Editor's Notes

  1. Source: ABS Cat No 5220.0 and SGS Economics & Planning Australian Cities Accounts 2013-14 Sydney’s growth is driving the nation. What is good for Sydney, is good for Australia.
  2. In terms of quality of life, many of you will have come across these indexes in the past, and the familiar contenders from Central Europe, Austaralia and Canadaare all still there and are ever-present in nearly all major rankings but beyond these there are examples of cities which are becoming beacons of liveability in their region, including Taipei and Hong Kong in East Asia, and Tel Aviv in the Middle East.
  3. Coming to 13 of 16 new KC Streetcar stops are large-display interactive kiosks that operate over Wi-Fi and with wireless beacons. There will also be smart streetlights and traffic signals, as well as video sensors for measuring everything from parking to snowfall to help local officials know where to dispatch snowplows.
  4. Crowd sourcing smart phone app- a social network for drivers, utilising empty side streets and roads to redirect vehicles, spreading traffic across the grid rather than only on one mayor road
  5. Adelaide…
  6. Today we are establishing the partnership and collaboration