In Dec 2016 I took a deeper dive into the mobility space and synthesized some thoughts in the following presentation. It covers the drivers for change, a view on the future state, and who will be the winners and losers. The presentation includes thoughts on how the world is changing, what does the future hold for how people will move around and fulfil their needs for transportation and mobility. The presentation is built upon research by leading consultancies, aggregated and augmented with my thoughts on the topic. The presentation is high-level and is meant to be presented in-person rather than read as a stand-alone, exhaustive paper. It is meant as starting point — see the list of sources for in-depth reading.

1. Thoughts on the Future of Mobility
December 2016
Cornel Chiriac

2. Opening note
The presentation includes thoughts on how the world is changing, what does the future
hold for how people will move around and fulfil their needs for transportation and mobility.
The presentation is built upon research by leading consultancies, aggregated and
augmented with my thoughts on the topic. It is high-level and is meant to be presented in-
person rather than read as a stand-alone, exhaustive paper. It is meant as a starting point
- see the list of sources for in-depth reading.
Cornel Chiriac
Twitter @cornelchiriac
Linked http://uk.linkedin.com/in/cornelchiriac

3. Cornel Chiriac & Company 3
Mobility is changing

4. Trends
Cornel Chiriac & Company 4
Trends impacting local mobility
Digital technology
Product innovation
Macro Consumer behaviour

5. Macro trends
Cornel Chiriac & Company 5
By 2030, 60% of the world population will live in urban areas
The world’s megacities are set for major growth
Population growth of the world’s top 15 megacities (millions, 2011 – 2025)
Sources: Shannon Bouton et al., How to make a city great, McKinsey & Company, September 2013, mckinsey.com
UN population division, World Economic Forum, Statista
… and urban traffic is likely to deteriorate

6. Macro trends
Cornel Chiriac & Company 6
By 2030, more than 2bn people are likely to enter the middle class
Global middle class is forecast to surge …
Population, billions
Sources: EY; McKinsey “Urban Mobility at a Tipping Point, 2015”; The World Bank
Joyce Dargay, Dermot Gately, and Martin Sommer, “Vehicle ownership and income growth, worldwide: 1960–2030,” Energy Journal, Volume 28, Number 4, 2007, pp. 143–70.
… and with it the global car park is forecast to double
Global car park, billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015 2030
Poor
Middle class
Rich
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2015 2030

7. Digital technology trends
Cornel Chiriac & Company 7
Technology is eating the world
Sources: Statista; Forbes; Ultra VR
37% of global
population
will use
smartphones
by 2020
30bn devices
will be
connected by
2020
Virtual reality
and video
comms
trends are up

8. Product innovation trends
Cornel Chiriac & Company 8
Car manufacturers and tech giants are rethinking the vehicle
Sources: Deloitte University Press “Future of Mobility 2016”
Powertrain
technologies
are maturing
in response
to the green
movement
Stronger and
lighter
materials
reduce
vehicle
weight
V2I and V2V
technologies
are part of
new vehicles
Autonomous
vehicles have
arrived

9. Consumer behaviour trends
Cornel Chiriac & Company 9
Consumers think, and behave, differently
Sources: Sivak, M., ‘Has motorization in the US peaked?’, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, June 2013; Global Workplace Analytics; McKinsey Global Institute
Generation Y
is less
inclined to
own cars
Consumers
wish to
repurpose
driving time
to other
activities
“Work from
home” is on
the rise
Consumers
use delivery
more often

10. Trends summary
Cornel Chiriac & Company 10
The future of mobility is ‘green’ and ‘shared’
Digital technology
__
Penetration of mobile
technology and IoT
enable new mobility
business models
Product innovation
__
EVs, lighter materials,
connected vehicles, and
AVs are here
Macro
__
Congestion and greenhouse
gas emissions are on
the rise causing
regulators to respond
Consumer behaviour
__
Consumer preferences shift
to pay-per-use mobility
and multitasking
while mobile

11. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 11
Cars are the main mode of personal mobility in the UK
Source: Department of Transport, Transport Statistics UK 2014
78%

12. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 12
New tech enabled mobility models are emerging
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
A multimodal mobility scenario
could save consumers 30 - 60%
per annum

13. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 13
New business models could expand revenues by 30%
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, “Automotive revolution - perspective towards 2030”, Jan 2016
Global vehicle sales will continue to grow
Vehicle sales, millions
87
105
41
23
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 Urbanisation
and macro-
economic
growth
Fewer
private
vehicles
2030
New shared vehicles
Private vehicles
115
The automotive revenue pool will grow by c.$1.5 trillion by 2030
Revenues, USD billions
2750
4000
720
1200
30
1500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2015 2030
Recurring revenues
- Shared mobility penetrates dense and suburban
cities with new car sharing and e-hailing business
models
- >USD 100 billion from data connectivity services,
incl. apps, navigation, entertainment, remote
services, and software upgrades
Aftermarket
- Growth with increased vehicle sales
- Higher annual maintenance spend for shared
vehicles
- 20-30% lower maintenance spend on electric
powertrains
- Up to 90% lower average crash repair per
autonomous vehicle
One-time vehicle sales
- ~2% annual global increase in vehicle unit sales
driven by macroeconomic growth in emerging
economies
- Price premiums paid for electric powertrains and
autonomous driving technology features
3500
6700

14. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 14
Four future states of mobility will coexist
3
1
4
2Driver controlled
vehicles
Autonomous
vehicles
Personally owned
vehicles
Shared vehicles
Sources: Deloitte University Press “Future of Mobility 2016”
Personal
autonomy
_
53% cost reduction
Incremental
change
_
$0.97 cost per mile
Autonomous car
sharing
_
68% cost reduction
A world of car
sharing
_
35% cost reduction
Assist

15. Mobility
providers
Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 15
The new mobility competitive environment is complex
Specialty OEMs (e.g. Tesla)
and new entrants from the
East (e.g. BYD)
Traditional vehicle
manufactures
Established
OEMs
Emerging
OEMs
E-hailing and Car sharing
mobility providers (e.g. Uber,
Zipcar)
Technology
giants
Providers of mobility
services, advanced safety,
location-based services, in-
vehicle content, and remote
analytics
Extended services to
infrastructure (Smart roads
and cities)Source: McKinsey Global Institute, “Automotive revolution - perspective towards 2030”, Jan 2016

16. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 16
OEMs should partner with tech giants and expand into shared mobility
IN-VEHICLE EXPERIENCE
Be better than other OEMs
END-TO-END SEAMLESS
MOBILITY
Satisfy customer’s emerging
mobility needs better than
Uber and alike
MOBILITY NETWORK &
DIGITAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
Integrate in the connected
world and participate in the
new mobility ecosystem to
facilitate better consumer
experience
Sources: Deloitte University Press “Future of Mobility 2016”; IBM Mobility Survey 2015
Home turf
2
1
3
Expansion
Partnership

17. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 17
In vehicle experience: Personal vehicles
Sources: IDEO
KEY FEATURES
- Connectivity
- Electrification
- Autonomous driving
- Other ‘Smart car’ features

18. Implications for premium OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 18
‘Social status’ could drive OEM-led premium end-to-end experience
Social
status
Quality of
digital
experience
Quality of
vehicle
Cost
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2015

19. Summary
- Mobility is changing as a result of urbanisation, green movement, digitalisation, product innovation, and consumer behaviour
- Future consumer is likely to employ multiple modes of transport based on their needs and cost
- The automotive revenue pool will add $1.5 trillion (30%) in revenues due to the growth in the shared services
- There is a strong movement towards autonomous vehicles and shared economy but they require advancements in public and
private sectors to be adopted en masse (e.g. regulations, smart city technology)
- The competitive environment in the mobility space is becoming increasingly more complex and includes mobility providers and
technology giants in addition to traditional and emerging vehicle manufacturers
- The mobility leaders of tomorrow will innovate within their core competency, collaborate with technology giants, and embrace new
business models
Cornel Chiriac & Company 19
Mobility is changing and opportunities for all are big

20. Appendix

21. Sources
Mobility
- Fortune on JLR http://fortune.com/2016/09/21/jaguar-land-rover-inmotion/
- Deloitte future of mobility: https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/about-deloitte/topics/future-of-
mobility.html
- Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielnewman/2016/09/27/autonomous-cars-the-future-of-
mobility/#178610f6514a
- Atlantic accident reduction http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/09/self-driving-cars-
could-save-300000-lives-per-decade-in-america/407956/
- Wired https://www.wired.com/brandlab/2015/12/the-future-of-mobility/
- Ideo http://automobility.ideo.com
- TechCrunch https://techcrunch.com/2015/08/08/understanding-the-future-of-mobility/
- Yahoo / Wolf predictions fro 2016 http://uk.businessinsider.com/michael-wolf-predicts-what-will-
happen-in-the-tech-industry-in-2016-2015-10/#-1
- Average driving time in USA
- 2015 https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/2015AmericanDrivingSurveyFS.pdf
- 2005 ABC poll https://www.reference.com/world-view/much-time-people-spend-driving-
f93af41f3f2605ea
- Average American time spent http://distractify.com/old-school/2015/01/07/astounding-
facts-about-how-we-actually-spend-our-time-1197818577
- Average American time spent http://blog.tempo.io/2013/7-time-consuming-things-an-
average-joe-spends-in-a-lifetime/
- CVC on mobility http://www.cvent.com/events/gcv-automotive-2016/event-summary-
1e70ceac75564e95b06bc6f9bb36f365.aspx?ReflD=ove
- Tesla AR2016 http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-16-13195&CIK=1318605
- Ford AR2015 http://corporate.ford.com/annual-reports/2015/index.html
- McKinsey ‘Urban Mobility at a Tipping Point 2015’ http://www.mckinsey.com/business-
functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/urban-mobility-at-a-tipping-point
- McKinsey ‘Future of Auto Industry’ 2014 http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-
assembly/our-insights/a-road-map-to-the-future-for-the-auto-industry
- Deloitte ‘Future of Mobility’ https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/focus/future-of-
mobility/transportation-technology.html?id=gx:2el:3dc:dup1374:eng:cons:fom:dcpromo
- Transport stats in the UK
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/489894/tsgb-
2015.pdf
- Statista, growth of megacities https://www.statista.com/chart/1826/population-growth-in-the-worlds-
megacities/
- China middle class, McKinsey http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/mapping-
chinas-middle-class
- Global middle class growth, EY http://www.ey.com/gl/en/issues/driving-growth/middle-class-growth-
in-emerging-markets---entering-the-global-middle-class
- IoT estimates http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2015/12/27/roundup-of-internet-of-things-
forecasts-and-market-estimates-2015/#4224f05448a0
- Statista, Smartphone penetration https://www.statista.com/statistics/203734/global-smartphone-
penetration-per-capita-since-2005/
- Cheapest generation http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/the-cheapest-
generation/309060/
- Work from home http://globalworkplaceanalytics.com/telecommuting-statistics
- IBM Mobility survey http://www-935.ibm.com/services/multimedia/GBE03640USEN.pdf
- CB Insights https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/game-changers-mobility-and-transportation/
Cornel Chiriac & Company 21

22. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 22
In vehicle experience: Autonomous delivery
Sources: IDEO
KEY FEATURES
- Connectivity
- Electrification
- Autonomous driving
- Delivery robotisation

23. Implications for OEMs
Cornel Chiriac & Company 23
In vehicle experience: Work-on-Wheels vehicles
Sources: IDEO
KEY FEATURES
- Connectivity
- Electrification
- Autonomous driving
- Office technology capability

24. EV tech annual global financing history
Cornel Chiriac & Company 24

25. Mobility game-changers
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Sources: CB Insights

26. Mobility game-changers
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Sources: CB Insights

27. Mobility game-changers
Cornel Chiriac & Company 27
Sources: CB Insights

28. Mobility game-changers
Cornel Chiriac & Company 28
Sources: CB Insights

29. Rise of shared economy in business travel
Cornel Chiriac & Company 29
Uber accounts for 43% of business ground transportation

30. Tech Investor @LondonVentureFactory and @Chicago_Angels
Independent consultant to startups and corporates
LinkedIn http://uk.linkedin.com/in/cornelchiriac
Twitter @cornelchiriac
Cornel Chiriac