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Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania
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Rob Byrne: Energy transitions in low-income countries: Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania

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Presentation at the STEPS Conference 2010 - Pathways to Sustainability: Agendas for a new politics of environment, development and social justice …

Presentation at the STEPS Conference 2010 - Pathways to Sustainability: Agendas for a new politics of environment, development and social justice

http://www.steps-centre.org/events/stepsconference2010.html

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  • 1. Energy transitions in low-income countries Learning to articulate solar home system niches in Kenya and Tanzania STEPS Symposium 2010 Pathways to Sustainability: Agendas for a New Politics of Environment, Development and Social Justice Institute of Development Studies September 24 th 2010 Rob Byrne Research Fellow SPRU [email_address]
  • 2. Background, purpose and argument of the presentation <ul><ul><li>Based on DPhil, field research conducted July 2007 to July 2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Not an assessment of PV as a solution to rural electrical service provision </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Explanation of the different evolutions of the PV markets in Kenya and Tanzania </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This presentation focuses on only some of the activities in the evolution of the Tanzanian photovoltaic (PV) market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>I will attempt to describe and analyse the development and growth of the PV niche, from early donor-funded interventions based on experience in Kenya </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>I argue that the model transferred from Kenya did not understand the Tanzanian setting, which helps to explain its ‘failure’ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Subsequent learning in Tanzania resulted in greater articulation of the niche – descriptively and connectively – and this helps to explain the recent ‘success’ </li></ul></ul>
  • 3. Some general background Source : World Bank African Development Indicators (2009) <ul><li>Some PV activity in Tanzania up to early 1990s </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A few PV suppliers in Dar es Salaam (e.g. BP) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some market for telecoms systems, railways, vaccine refrigeration </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Very few Solar Home Systems (SHSs) (perhaps a few hundred) </li></ul></ul>
  • 4. Strategic Niche Management – some definitions <ul><ul><li>Following Berkhout (2006), and Eames et al . (2006): </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Expectation : a socio-technical ‘target’ towards which actors can align themselves and their activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vision : s pecifies the means to achieve the socio-technical target or expectation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>First order learning : “ how to improve the design, which features of the design are acceptable for users, and about ways of creating a set of policy incentives which accommodate adoption” (Hoogma et al . 2002:28). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Second order learning : results from the testing of fundamental assumptions about technology and context </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Networks of actors : broad networks considered important </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Institutions : the sociological understanding (norms, practices, policies, etc.) </li></ul></ul>
  • 5. Expectations, visions, and first and second order learning Expectation 1 Expectation 2 Second-order learning First-order learning First-order learning ‘ Starting’ point
  • 6. Kenyan SHS market origins <ul><ul><li>Karamugi Harambee School installation (1984) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Harold Burris and Mark Hankins (ex-Peace Corps in Kenya) did the installation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Headmaster and teachers wanted systems for their homes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Burris marketed SHSs to HHs (wealthy ‘middle class’) around Mt. Kenya </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hankins looked to training technicians and writing about SHSs in Kenya </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hankins and Burris got USAID funding for PV projects in three schools (1985/86) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Installation and training, each day </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Practical work installing systems; classroom-based sessions on theory </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Many of the electricians became sales technicians for Burris </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Nairobi PV suppliers employed some and later ‘poached’ others </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>After a regional workshop in Nairobi in 1992, Hankins (now as EAA) began a project with Oswald Kasaizi (KARADEA, north west Tanzanian NGO) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>This became the KARADEA Solar Training Facility (KSTF) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  • 7. Transferring the model to Tanzania <ul><ul><li>KSTF was Sida-funded (1993) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>PV technician training courses (CSC and others funded) – installations and classroom theory </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>About 200 technicians trained over ten-year period (East Africa) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>KSTF tried to develop a market in Kagera region – no substantial success </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EAA implemented other community centre and PV training projects, e.g. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Government district officers awareness workshop (1996) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Simanjiro Animal Health Learning Centre (1996) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Wasso Hospital (1997) </li></ul></ul></ul>
  • 8. Transferring the model to Tanzania <ul><ul><li>Similar outcomes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Group of technicians with basic PV installation skills </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Raised awareness of PV for rural electrification </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Little or no market stimulation; technicians returned home but </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No resources </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No PV suppliers </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No clear market demand </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But EAA was becoming established as a prominent PV actor in East Africa </li></ul></ul>
  • 9. TaTEDO’s PV activities <ul><ul><li>TaTEDO (Tanzania Traditional Energy Development and Environment Organisation) had a PV system installed by Burris (around 1996/7) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PV project funded in late 1990s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>PV Training courses in three regions (Hankins model), focussed on partner CBOs </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>First was in Dar es Salaam in May 2000, with stakeholder workshop </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Tanzania Solar Energy Association (TASEA) created </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Other courses recruited participants to TASEA </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No market or project activity following courses, except among those already active in PV </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Later courses focussed more on private sector actors (dealers and employees) and business training, and PV for commercial activities </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Helped to get training courses officially recognised (VETA) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Worked with KSTF, TASEA, Burris, Umeme Jua (more below), and others </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TaTEDO becoming established PV actor in Tanzania </li></ul></ul>
  • 10. Free Energy Europe in Tanzania <ul><ul><li>Karlijn Arkesteijn, an intern at TaTEDO during 2000, did market research for Free Energy Europe (FEE) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>European PV module manufacturer already selling in Kenya </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interested to sell in Tanzania </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Arkesteijn mapped the PV actors in three regions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Interactions with each other </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sought their views on how the market could be developed </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The research informed a proposal to the Dutch government to help fund a joint venture in Tanzania (DGIS contributed about EUR 600,000) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Aligned FEE’s objective to sell in Tanzania with Dutch government objective to promote sustainable energy services in developing countries </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Umeme Jua created (2001) – FEE, TaTEDO and independent consultant </li></ul></ul></ul>
  • 11. Umeme Jua’s market development activities <ul><ul><li>Market studies using ‘EAA’ methodology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identified ‘entrepreneurial’ retail based dealers in urban centres of ‘promising’ regions (where customers may have enough income) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Built a network of dealers and associated technicians </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Trained dealers in selling PV; and technicians local to the dealers </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Initial training based on Hankins model (through TASEA, TaTEDO) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Later adapted to dealers’ and technicians’ needs (short, frequent, in-situ) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Guaranteed supplies and offered terms depending on numbers sold </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demonstrated PV systems in public places (e.g. markets), advertised on radio (local stations found to be better than national) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Referred interest to local dealers and technicians </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Experimented (unsuccessfully) with micro-finance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hire purchase very successful (Tunakopesha, later a competitor) </li></ul></ul>
  • 12. Donor-funded PV projects in Tanzania: instruments of energy policy <ul><ul><li>UNDP-GEF project in Mwanza region (2004) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Initial design adjusted following consultation with TaTEDO, UJ and others </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strong similarity to UJ approach but with explicit policy lobbying </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Private sector capacity building </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Raising awareness </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Enhancing affordability </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Replication </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sida-MEM project in three regions: Tanga, Morogoro and Iringa (2005) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Initial design adjusted following consultations (UNDP-GEF, UJ, etc.) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strong similarity to UJ approach but, like UNDP-GEF, including a policy dimension </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Business development services </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Networking support (TASEA) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Raising awareness </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Replication to other regions </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  • 13. Market outcomes and niche status <ul><ul><li>Gradually (over 2 to 3 years), “the numbers began to get interesting” (van der Vleuten 2008, former manager of FEE) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2007, an estimated 285 kWp of modules were sold (could be anything from 5000 to 15,000 systems) – a 57% increase from the previous year </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Price per watt-peak fell from USD 12.07 (2006) to USD 9.85 (2007) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In 2008, the PV market was estimated to be worth USD 2 million </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sida-MEM project estimated it to be higher (more than USD 2.8 million) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Umeme Jua turned over USD 1 million in 2007-2008 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highly interconnected niche (particularly through TASEA) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wide range of actors involved </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing links to other niches and regimes </li></ul></ul>
  • 14. Summary analysis <ul><ul><li>Dominant overall expectation shifted subtly </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>From rural electrification using PV systems (development and business opportunities) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>To PV market (development co-benefits) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adjusted main direction of learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Instead of learning how to bring PV electrical services to the poor </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>It became how to maximise sales of PV modules </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Achieved by articulating the PV niche (descriptively and connectively) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Demonstrating PV to users, understanding user preferences, business practice and needs </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Building broad networks of actors including connections to actors ‘outside’ the niche </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Articulating the niche helped to lower risks and the flow of information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rural electrification expectation persists – micro-finance experiments, etc. </li></ul></ul>
  • 15. Conclusions <ul><ul><li>Huge effort to develop the market for PV in Tanzania </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Not a simple story of private sector led development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Public sector funds helped to lower some of the risks </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Facilitated experimentation and learning to develop business models </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Private sector replicated </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The poor have not benefited directly, although effort continues </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PV is expensive but electrical services are in high demand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What does this imply for other energy service technologies? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For example, is it realistic to expect that clean cooking technologies can be diffused through private markets when direct burning of biomass is cheap and simple? </li></ul></ul></ul>

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