Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina

1. Heikot signaalit
tulevaisuuden
avartajina
10.1.2019
#heikotsignaalit @sitrafund

2. Tervetuloa!
Veera Heinonen, Sitra
Weak signals and exploring the future
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
Heikot signaalit selvitys: tulevaisuuksien avartaminen
Mikko Dufva, Sitra
Kommentti selvitykseen
Leena Ilmola, IIASA
Heikkojen signaalien kerääminen ja tulkinta
Soile Ollila, Business Finland
Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia
#heikotsignaalit
Ohjelma

3. WEAK SIGNALS AND EXPLORING THE FUTURE
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta

4. Weak signals and exploring
the future
Geoff Mulgan, SITRA, January 2019

5. A storm in Thailand?
Jolts to stock market prices?
K-pop triumphant?
Vegans attacking restaurants?
Huawei attacks/arrests?
Bond yields signaling US recession?
Reemergence of anti-capitalist conservatism?

6. Tyromancy

7. ‘The future’s already here – it’s
just unevenly distributed’
William Gibson

8. What is a
weak
signal?
Non-obvious, non-
linear, not too
visible…

9. How? Art, science or luck?
Who? Experts, the powerful, the
powerless?

10. Public / Social
Private / Corporate
Academic Mainstream
culture

11. But…
the trouble with weak signals – lots of them
and most misleading!
More acorns than oaks; no formulae; timing
is a challenge
So the key issue is future sensitivity …

12. Geoff Mulgan
Innovation

13. Strong signals and megatrends …

14. !

15. J to S?

17. Dator’s Three ‘Laws’ of Futures…
1. The ‘future’ cannot be predicted because the
‘future’ does not exist.
‘What Futures Studies, and Is not’
Professor James Dator, University of Hawaii
2. Any useful idea about the future should appear
ridiculous.
3. We shape our tools and thereafter our tools
shape us.

18. Oral Tradition
Shamans, mystics,
priests etc.
First Wave
Second Wave
Early Written Age
Sīmă Qiān, Ibn Khaldun,
Nostradamus, Thomas More, Robert
Boyle.
Third Wave
Extraction and enlightenment
Comte, H.G. Wells, Jules Verne,
William F. Ogburn, Soviet planning
Fourth Wave
Systems and cybernetics
RAND, SRI, la prospective,
Herman Kahn, Shell, GBN, The
Limits to Growth
Fifth Wave
Complexity & emergence
Integral Futures,
experiential futures, anticipatory
systems
Wendy Shultz, APF 2012
Creative Commons
Five Ages of Futures

19. A Taxonomy of Futures Methods
Gathering intelligence about the
future:
- Horizon Scanning
- 7 Questions
- The Issues Paper
- Delphi
Exploring the dynamics of change:
- Driver Mapping/ Scenarios
- Axes of Uncertainty
Describing what the future might be
like:
- Speculative Design
- Visioning
- SWOT Analysis
- Science-Fiction
Developing / testing policy & strategy:
- Simulation & games
- Policy Stress-testing
- Backcasting
- Roadmapping

20. 2015
2013
2017
2018 2019….
2016
2014
Future Londoner
Personas with Arup
CrimeForce:
Interactive
Scenarios
FutureFest
Immersive
Garden
Participatory
Futures
Toolkit

21. Horizon scanning or
searching

22. Any questions?

23. Any questions?
Source: Travelzoo

24. Any questions?
Adapted from Gregor Cresnar from Noun Project

25. Any questions?
Source: Cognitive Edge

26. Data scanning tools

27. The Scanner: 3 layers (descriptive, exploratory, functional)
● Lists of relevant activity (e.g.
projects/funding/networking)
● Evolution of trends over time
● Maps of activity
● Compare activity across different
themes (e.g. MeSH terms,
societal needs)
● Gain inspiration & new ideas (e.g.
links between topics)
● Explore emergent trends
● Understand non-health
innovations that may have health
implications (e.g. architecture)
● Download data and perform own analyses
● Export visualisations
● Tune results according to specific parameters (e.g.
more or less sensitive thresholds)
I have a
question/topic
of interest
I’d like to
explore
Access
Scanner
online

28. AI in Health: Descriptive analysis example
Artificial intelligence in health
Trends
Categories
Maps

29. Examples: we are already finding AI needles in grant data haystacks
The overall goal of the Big Data for Better Outcomes (BD4BO)
programme is to facilitate the use of ‘big data’ to promote the
development of value-based, outcomes-focused healthcare systems in
Europe.
Errors in medical documents represent a critical issue that can adversely
affect healthcare quality and safety. Physician use of speech recognition (SR)
technology has risen in recent years due to its ease of use and efficiency at
the point of care. However, high error rates, upwards of 10-23%, have been
observed in SR-generated medical documents. Error correction and content
editing can be time consuming for clinicians. A solution to this problem is to
improve accuracy through automated error detection using natural language
processing (NLP).
Beacon is a mobile platform for anonymous group therapy powered by
natural language processing.
Can a better understanding of your personal characteristics help unlock new insights into disease?
Could your credit score, your income and your shopping habits help predict whether you are about
to have a heart attack? This project focuses on people with diabetes - specifically looking at
whether linking big atypical, non-health data sets with health data can reliably predict who is likely
to benefit from a health intervention or who is not.
Under this grant, the Center for Digital Democracy
(CDD), in partnership with the Berkeley Media Studies
Group (BMSG), will carry out analysis, convening, and
outreach activities to build awareness of trends in
digital marketing; the goal will be to provide an
updated and in-depth examination of practices that
drive marketing of unhealthy foods and beverages
and to identify the potential use of these digital-
marketing technologies to shape consumer demand
to drive the reduction of childhood obesity.
We create neurotechnology platforms
that help people tell their health story
using short videos paired with artificial
intelligence and ML.

30. Scenarios and stories

31. The cone of plausibility

32. Building scenarios
Research ScenariosDrivers of change

33. Sources: Inc.com, Historical DeWitticisms, Independent.ie

34. Any questions?
Created by Gregor Cresnar from Noun Project

36. ● What If? Eg what is the smart city visions
actually happened? What counter-
movements would grow?
● Backwards stories: assume a zero carbon
world, or anti-discrimination ideas extend
to intelligence

37. Simulation and Games:
experience and see
possible futures

38. DECC2050 IMPACT Stage Your City
Real world examples

39. SuperBugs ConsortiumInnovate!
What Nesta has been working on

40. The year is 2020, the week before Budget Day... Eg
planning for flying cars
Icon made by Freepik from
www.flaticon.com

41. Speculative design

42. Any questions?
Source: Strange Telemetry

43. Any questions?
Source: Smithery
A

44. Any questions?
Source: Smithery

45. How? Art, science or luck?
Who? Experts, the powerful, the
powerless?

46. How to use?
● Immerse in weak signals – the marginal, possible, surprising
● Get a feel, and keep an eye as some grow – and be faster
to respond

47. serendipity favours
the prepared mind

48. Q&A

49. Tervetuloa!
Veera Heinonen, Sitra
Weak signals and exploring the future
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
Heikot signaalit selvitys: tulevaisuuksien avartaminen
Mikko Dufva, Sitra
Kommentti selvitykseen
Leena Ilmola, IIASA
Heikkojen signaalien kerääminen ja tulkinta
Soile Ollila, Business Finland
Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia
#heikotsignaalit
Ohjelma

50. HEIKOT SIGNAALIT SELVITYS:
TULEVAISUUKSIEN AVARTAMINEN
Mikko Dufva, Sitra

51. Miksi heikot
signaalit?

52. Tulevaisuusajattelun muodot
Tulevaisuuteen
varautuminen
Tulevaisuuksien
suunnittelu
Tulevaisuuksien
avartaminen
vrt. Miller 2018

53. 350 000 katselukertaa

54. Heikko signaali
merkki mahdollisesti
nousevasta asiasta
tai
ensioire mahdollisesta
muutoksesta

55. Heikko signaali riippuu havaitsijastaan
Sitran signaalityössä fokus on Suomen ja suomalaisen
yhteiskunnan kehittämisen kannalta kiinnostavissa
signaaleissa.

56. Tutkain: työkalu signaalikeskusteluun
Mitä nämä signaalit
kertovat tulevaisuudesta?
Miltä oma
tutkaimesi näyttää?

57. 6
2
8
lukua heikoista
signaaleista ja niiden
hyödyntämisestä
lukua havaituista
signaaleista ja niiden
tulkinnoista
työkalua signaalien
tunnistamiseen ja
tulkintaan

58. Valikoima
signaaleja
Otsikko
keskustelun
herättäjänä
Sanaselitykset
Sisältö
tiivistetty
kuvaan
Signaalien
pohjalta tehty
tulkinta

59. psst…. muista myös tämä

60. Mikä on
ihminen?
Kuka päättää
tulevaisuudessa?
Mitä tulevat sukupolvet
ajattelevat nykyajasta?
Miten teemme asioita
tulevaisuudessa?
Miten teknologiaa
voi käyttää väärin?
Pitäisikö maailman
olla suunnittelu-
projekti?

61. Signaalitietokanta
https://kumu.io/mdufva/ennakointi#signaalit

62. “Any useful idea about the futures should
appear to be ridiculous”
Jim Dator

63. KOMMENTTI SELVITYKSEEN
Leena Ilmola, IIASA

64. 10.1.2019
Sitra Heikot signaalit tulevaisuuden avartajina
Leena Ilmola
Advanced Systems Analysis Program
Weak signals as windows to
alternative futures –
Commentary

65. What is important – what is not? Composed in 2009
Nations (or industries) are not able to create global rules > optimization (local fitness)
Financial system is centralized, giant banks are closely linked
IPR and patent regulation diversifies > concentration of technology development into large
corporations that are closely connected and/or emerging innovations
Knowledge structures are decentralized, but some dominating hubs either because of their superior
resources (Intel) or by their position in the network (Google)
Increase of computing power that leads to the fast and equal access to information in resources
markets (raw material market, labor market, financial market).
World of Volatility
Nations are forced to create global rules by global threat (climate change, collapse of biological
environment, volcanic activity, nuclear war, antibiotics resistant diseases)
IPR regulation is supporting the concentration of technology development into a few large
corporations that are launching competing technologies
Political and corporate power are integrated into one decision making system
Wealth generation is centralized, investment s in technology at the top of the hierarchy
Global financial system has collapsed and taken over by global gvt/blocs/groups
Periods of Stability & Turbulence
Open source and self-organization in the virtual world and regulation in the real economy
Split of industries into areas, where the regulation/ rules of the game differ – such as government
owned and free industries
External constraints (such as wars, political systems, ideological blocks, diseases) are separating
some geographical areas or technology fields or societies from each another.
Strong supporting structures prevent development of a domain (agriculture).
Value systems block global interaction (such as religious fundamentalism).
Multidynamics
Casti, J., Ilmola, L., Rouvinen, P., & Wilenius, M. (2011). Extreme events. Helsinki: Taloustieto Oy.

66. What is important – what is not Example 2
behavio
r
developer
USER
COMPANYADVERTISERS
data
Google
Owners of
Alphabet
Deep
Mind
?
PVN projekti, STN
https://www.jyu.fi/it/en/researc
h/publications/reports-on-
scientific-computing-and-
optimization/reports/digitalizati
on-of-global-economy-and-
public-sector-funding-
report1.pdf

67. KIITOS!
Ottakaa yhteyttä ilmola@iiasa.ac.at

68. Tervetuloa!
Veera Heinonen, Sitra
Weak signals and exploring the future
Geoff Mulgan, Nesta
Heikot signaalit selvitys: tulevaisuuksien avartaminen
Mikko Dufva, Sitra
Kommentti selvitykseen
Leena Ilmola, IIASA
Heikkojen signaalien kerääminen ja tulkinta
Soile Ollila, Business Finland
Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia
#heikotsignaalit
Ohjelma

69. HEIKKOJEN SIGNAALIEN
KERÄÄMINEN JA TULKINTA
Soile Ollila, Business Finland
Tiina Jokela, Suomen Akatemia

70. #HEIKOTSIGNAALIT

71. sitra.fi | seuraavaerä.fi
@sitrafund