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Economic Indicators April 2014

Economic Indicators April 2014

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Economic indicators april 2014   houston Economic indicators april 2014 houston Presentation Transcript

  • | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1 Economic Indicators Last update 22.4.2014
  • | Economic Indicators |2 Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – April 2014 Europe: • Consensus April GDP forecast for WE remained on 1,5% for 2014 and improved by 0,1%point to 1,8% for 2015. • The EU industrial confidence decreased slightly compared to last month while the consumer confidence indicator continued its positive path from the last months also in March. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany fell in March after four consecutive increases. The crisis of the emerging economies and the events in Crimea are impacting confidence. • The Euro area recovery appears to be gaining traction: retail sales held firm during February, unemployment came slightly down, consumer confidence expanded in March and PMIs were also upbeat. US: • Consensus April GDP forecast for the US decreased again slightly from 2,8% to 2,7% for 2014. Forecast for 2015 came down from 3,1% to now 3,0%. • The US economy made a soft start to 2014, with exports falling in February and winter storms curbing production. On the other hand, forward-looking manufacturing indicators are robust. Japan: • The April GDP growth forecast for Japan fell again from 1,4% to 1,3% for 2014 and remained stable on 1,3% for 2015. • On April 1, 2014, Japan raised its consumption tax for the first time in 17 years in an attempt to help consolidate the country’s hefty deficit. There are fears over how much the sales tax hike will impact short-term GDP growth and inflation.
  • 3 | Economic Indicators | Eurostat Data View slide
  • | Economic Indicators |4 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28 Source: Eurostat Mar 14 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 % GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year View slide
  • | Economic Indicators |5 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28 Source: Eurostat Mar 14 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 % GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
  • | Economic Indicators |6 Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index Source: Eurostat Apr 14 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 15/1 14 Mar, 0.6 % The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
  • | Economic Indicators |7 Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Apr 14 Mar 14; 0,5 Apr.14; 0,25 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 Jan08 July08 Jan09 Jul.09 Jan10 Jul.10 Jan11 July11 Jan12 Jul.12 Jan13 Jul.13 Jan14 Jul.14 Jan15 % ECB short-term rate Eurozone inflation FED rate
  • | Economic Indicators |8 Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate Source: Eurostat Apr 14 Feb.14, 10.6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 % Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
  • | Economic Indicators |9 Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat Apr 14 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Industrial confidence within EU 28 decreased slightly in March, but the industry remains in a fairly positive mood. The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
  • | Economic Indicators |10 Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat Apr 14 Consumer Confidence within EU 28 continued its positive path in March. -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
  • | Economic Indicators |11 Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 Source: Eurostat Feb 14 60 65 70 75 80 85 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 79.4 % The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
  • | Economic Indicators |12 Ifo Data
  • | Economic Indicators |13 Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate Source: IFO Feb 14 The Ifo World Economic climate further brightens in Q1 2014 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  • | Economic Indicators |14 Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate Source: IFO Feb 14 The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly again in Q1 2014. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  • | Economic Indicators |15 Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate Source: IFO Feb 14 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  • | Economic Indicators |16 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO Dec 13
  • | Economic Indicators |17 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Dec 13
  • | Economic Indicators |18 Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO Apr 14
  • | Economic Indicators |19 Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Source: IFO Apr 14 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Business situation 6 months expectations The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in March after four successive increases. Companies expressed far less confidence in future business developments, but were more satisfied with their current business situation. The crisis of the emerging economies and the events in Crimea are impacting the confidence of German firms.
  • | Economic Indicators |20 Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation Source: IFO Apr 14 The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in March after four successive increases. Companies expressed far less confidence in future business developments, but were more satisfied with their current business situation. The crisis of the emerging economies and the events in Crimea are impacting the confidence of German firms.
  • | Economic Indicators |21 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Source: IFO Apr 14, bundesverband druck und medien -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. The business climate within the printing industry deteriorated slightly from 0 to -3 in March.
  • | Economic Indicators |22 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Business Development at German Printers – March 2014:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry deteriorated by 9%points and only reached 2% in March.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – remains clouded, reaching -3% after 0% in the previous month.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative at -8% after -11% in the previous month. Source: IFO Apr 14, bundesverband druck und medien
  • | Economic Indicators |23 Zenith Data
  • | Economic Indicators |24 Global Advertising Growth – Zenith 4/14 Press Release Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14
  • | Economic Indicators |25 Regional Advertising Development – Zenith 4/14 Press Release Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14
  • | Economic Indicators |26 Global Advertising Market – Zenith 4/14 Press Release Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14
  • | Economic Indicators |27 Advertising by medium – Zenith 4/14 Press Release Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14