Economic Indicators October 2013

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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview October 2013

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Economic Indicators October 2013

  1. 1. Economic Indicators Last update 18.10.2013 1 | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
  2. 2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2013 Europe: • Consensus October GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for 2014. • Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved again in September. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the 5th time in September. While the assessment of the current business situation was slightly less favorably than in the previous month, the six-months business expectations were once again more optimistic. • The ECB kept its main interest rate on hold on October 2. Recovery remains weak , fragile and uneven, inflation fell to 1,1%, notably below its 2% target. US: • Consensus October GDP forecast for the US remained on 1,6% for 2013 and decreased from 2,7% to 2,6% for 2014. • US recovery prospects have been hit by the government shut-down, caused by the dispute over the FY 2014 budget. Dysfunctional, polarised political wrangling has hurt confidence in the US. Key fiscal issues were again being postponed to a later date. Japan: • The October GDP growth forecast for Japan again remained stable on 1,9% for 2013 and on 1,7% for 2014. • The government took a small step forward in its plan to reduce Japan’s debt burden after it proceeded with a much discussed sales tax increase earlier this month. The levy, which will be implemented in April 2014 will increase from the current 5% rate to 8%. 2 | Economic Indicators |
  3. 3. Eurostat Data 3 | Economic Indicators |
  4. 4. 13 Q1 12 Q1 '11 Q1 '10 Q1 '09 Q1 '08 Q1 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 '07Q1 % Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year Source: Eurostat Sep 13 4 | Economic Indicators |
  5. 5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 1 0,5 0 % -0,5 -1 -1,5 -2 13 Q1 12 Q1 '11 Q1 '10 Q1 '09 Q1 '08 Q1 '07Q1 -2,5 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter Source: Eurostat Sep 13 5 | Economic Indicators |
  6. 6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 13/1 12/1 11/1 10/1 09/1 1,3 08/1 % The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States. Source: Eurostat Oct 13 6 | Economic Indicators |
  7. 7. Eurozone inflation Sep.13; 1,1 ECB short-term rate Oct 13; 0,5 Jul.13 Jan 13 Jul.12 Jan 12 July 11 Jan 11 Jul.10 Jan 10 Jul.09 Oct 13; 0,25 Jan 09 July 08 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 FED rate 0,5 0,0 -0,5 Jan 08 % Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate Source: ECB, FED Oct 13 7 | Economic Indicators |
  8. 8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate 12 11 10,9 % 10 9 8 7 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 6 Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries Source: Eurostat Sep 13 8 | Economic Indicators |
  9. 9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in September. Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks. Source: Eurostat Oct 13 9 | Economic Indicators |
  10. 10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved again in September. 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 -35 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases. Source: Eurostat Oct 13 10 | Economic Indicators |
  11. 11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 85 78,9 80 75 % 70 65 13Q1 12Q1 11Q1 10Q1 09Q1 08Q1 07Q1 06Q1 05Q1 04Q1 60 The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry. Source: Eurostat Aug 13 11 | Economic Indicators |
  12. 12. Ifo Data 12 | Economic Indicators |
  13. 13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Aug 13 13 | Economic Indicators |
  14. 14. Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Aug 13 14 | Economic Indicators |
  15. 15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Aug 13 15 | Economic Indicators |
  16. 16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO Oct 13 16 | Economic Indicators |
  17. 17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Oct 13 17 | Economic Indicators |
  18. 18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO June 13 18 | Economic Indicators |
  19. 19. Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations 6 months expectations Business situation Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Jan 08 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the 5th time in succession. Although companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favorably, their business expectations were once again more optimistic. The German economy made a confident start to the autumn. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. Source: IFO Oct 13 19 | Economic Indicators |
  20. 20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the 5th time in succession. Although companies assessed their current business situation slightly less favorably, their business expectations were once again more optimistic. The German economy made a confident start to the autumn. Source: IFO Oct 13 20 | Economic Indicators |
  21. 21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly to -8 in August. Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien 21 | Economic Indicators |
  22. 22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Business Development at German Printers – August 2013:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry improved compared to the last month to now -12%, which is slightly worse than in the same month of last year.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – improved slightly to now -8%.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened by 10%points to now -3%. In the same month of last year expectations were still positive at +8%. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien 22 | Economic Indicators |
  23. 23. Zenith Data 23 | Economic Indicators |
  24. 24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 24 | Economic Indicators |
  25. 25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 25 | Economic Indicators |
  26. 26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 26 | Economic Indicators |
  27. 27. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 27 | Economic Indicators |

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