Economic Indicators September 2013

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Economic Indicators September 2013

  1. 1. | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1 Economic Indicators Last update 13.09.2013
  2. 2. | Economic Indicators |2 Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – September 2013 Europe: • Consensus September GDP forecast for WE rose from -0,1% to 0,0% for 2013 and from 1,1% to 1,3% for 2014. • Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in August. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose again in August. Both, the assessments of the current business situation as well as the six-months business outlook are more positive than last month. • The Eurozone finally exited recession in Q2 and latest indicators suggest that the recovery could be maintained over the coming months. US: • Consensus September GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,5% to 1,6% for 2013 and from 2,6% to 2,7% for 2014. • A small uptick in the 2013 and 2014 GDP outlook was based on the 2nd release of the Q2 national accounts. The report showed an upside revision to the initial GDP outturn of 1,7% to 2,5% growth, more than double the first quarter’s 1,1% pace. Japan: • The September GDP growth forecast for Japan remained on 1,9% for 2013 and improved from 1,5% to 1,7% for 2014. • Q2 GDP indicated that a solid economic recovery is taking hold.
  3. 3. 3 | Economic Indicators | Eurostat Data
  4. 4. | Economic Indicators |4 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 Source: Eurostat Sep 13 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 '07Q1 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 % GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
  5. 5. | Economic Indicators |5 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 Source: Eurostat Sep 13 -2,5 -2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 '07Q1 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 % GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
  6. 6. | Economic Indicators |6 Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index Source: Eurostat Aug 13 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 1,7 % The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
  7. 7. | Economic Indicators |7 Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate Source: ECB, FED Sep 13 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 Jan08 July08 Jan09 Jul.09 Jan10 Jul.10 Jan11 July11 Jan12 Jul.12 Jan13 Jul.13 % ECB short-term rate Eurozone inflation FED rate
  8. 8. | Economic Indicators |8 Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate Source: Eurostat Sep 13 10,9 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 % Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
  9. 9. | Economic Indicators |9 Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat Aug 13 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again considerably in August. The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
  10. 10. | Economic Indicators |10 Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat Sep 13 Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved again in August. -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
  11. 11. | Economic Indicators |11 Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 Source: Eurostat Aug 13 60 65 70 75 80 85 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 78,9 % The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
  12. 12. | Economic Indicators |12 Ifo Data
  13. 13. | Economic Indicators |13 Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate Source: IFO Aug 13 The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  14. 14. | Economic Indicators |14 Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate Source: IFO Aug 13 The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  15. 15. | Economic Indicators |15 Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate Source: IFO Aug 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  16. 16. | Economic Indicators |16 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO June 13
  17. 17. | Economic Indicators |17 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO June 13
  18. 18. | Economic Indicators |18 Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO June 13
  19. 19. | Economic Indicators |19 Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Source: IFO Sep 13 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Business situation 6 months expectations The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise. Both, the assessments of the current business situation and the expectations for the coming six months are more positive than last month. The German economy moved up a gear.
  20. 20. | Economic Indicators |20 Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation Source: IFO Sep 13 The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise. Both, the assessments of the current business situation and the expectations for the coming six months are more positive than last month. The German economy moved up a gear.
  21. 21. | Economic Indicators |21 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly to -8 in August.
  22. 22. | Economic Indicators |22 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Business Development at German Printers – August 2013:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry improved compared to the last month to now -12%, which is slightly worse than in the same month of last year.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – improved slightly to now -8%.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened by 10%points to now -3%. In the same month of last year expectations were still positive at +8%. Source: IFO Sep 13, bundesverband druck und medien
  23. 23. | Economic Indicators |23 Zenith Data
  24. 24. | Economic Indicators |24 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: Zenith 6/13 Executive summary: Advertising Expenditure Forecast June 2013 • Global ad expenditure to grow 3,5% in 2013, down from 3,9% forecast in Q1 due to continuing recession in the Eurozone and security concerns in South Korea. 5,1% are being forecast for 2014 and 5,8% for 2015. • Growth will be led by the Rising markets (av. growth of 8,6% per year) while Mature markets will grow at an average of 2,8%. • US remains biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global ad market followed by China, Argentina, Indonesia and Russia • Internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance, mobile advertising has now truly taken off and is growing five times faster than desktop internet. • Advertising in printed newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an average of 2-3% a year.
  25. 25. | Economic Indicators |25 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
  26. 26. | Economic Indicators |26 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
  27. 27. | Economic Indicators |27 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
  28. 28. | Economic Indicators |28 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13

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