2.  are used to select from among choices
or to evaluate opportunities.
 Addresses various forms of reasoning

3.  reflect the strengths of an economic
perspective. One such strength is the
ease of developing and using
mathematical models for human
behavior.

4.  Alternative Model
› makes greater allowance for the
psychological make-up of each individual
decision maker.
 Subjective expected utility theory
› the goal of human action is to seek pleasure
and avoid pain.
 Subjective Probability
› which is a calculation based on the
individuals estimates of likelihood rather than
an objective computations

5.  considered options one by one and then
we select an option as we find one that
is satisfactory or just good enough to
meet our minimum level of
acceptability.
 Bounded rationality
› we are rational, but within the limits

6.  eliminate alternatives focusing on
aspects of the various options.
Condition probability
• is the likelihood of one event , given
another.

7.  can be applied to a broad range of
behaviors and environments.
 development of a field of study that is
based on decision making in natural
environments.

8.  Working as a group can enhance the
effectiveness of decision making, just as
it can enhance the effectiveness of
problem solving.
Benefits of Group Decision Making:
 the group benefits from the expertise of
each of the members
 increase in resources and ideas
 improved group memory over individual
memory

9.  In a small group, they have open
communication and members share a
common mind set, identify with the
group, and agree on acceptable group
behavior.
 In a group made up of diverse
members, they are in the position to make
better decisions.

10.  One of them is groupthink.
 Groupthink - a phenomena
characterized by premature decision
making that is generally the result of
group members attempting to avoid
conflict; frequently results in suboptimum
decision making that avoids
nontraditional ideas.

11. Anxiety

12. 1) An isolated, cohesive, and
homogeneous group is empowered to
make decisions
2) Objective and impartial leadership is
absent, within the group or outside it
3) High levels of stress impinge on the
group decision-making process

13. 1) In closed-mindedness, the group is not open to
alternative ideas
2) In rationalization, the group goes to great lengths to
justify both the process and the product of its decision
making
3) In the squelching of dissent, thos who disagree are
ignored, criticized, or even ostracized
4) In the formation of a "mindguard" for the group, one
person appoints himself or herself the keeper of the
group norm and ensures that people stay in line
5) In feeling invulnerable, the group believes that it must
be right, given the intelligence of the members and
the information available to them
6) In feeling unanimous, members believe that everyone
unanimously shares the opinions expressed by the
group

14.  The leader of a group should encourage
constructive criticism, be impartial, and
ensure that members seek input from
people outside the group.
 The group should form subgroups that
meet separately to consider alternative
solutions to a single problem.

15. It is important that the leader should take
responsibility for preventing spurious
conformity to a group norm.

16.  People make decisions based on biases
and heuristics in their thinking. These
mental shortcuts lighten the cognitive
load of making decisions, but they also
allow for a much greater chance of
error.

17. In representativeness, we judge the
probability of an uncertain event
according to:
1) how obviously it is similar to or
representative of the population from
which it is derived
2) the degree to which it reflects the salient
features of the process by which it is
generated

18. Example:
Gambler's fallacy - a mistaken belief that
the probability of a given random
event, such as winning or losing at a
game of chance, is influenced by
previous random events.
Hot hand or Streak Shooter

19.  One reason that people misguidedly use
the representativeness heuristic is
because they fail to understand the
concept of base rates.
 Base rate - refers to the prevalence of an
event or characteristic within its
population of events or characteristics.

20.  Availability heuristic - we make judgments
on the basis of how easily we can call to
mind what we perceive as relevant
instances of a phenomenon.
 Conjunction fallacy - an individual gives a
higher estimate for a subset of events than
for the larger set of events containing the
given subset.
 Inclusion fallacy - a variant of the
conjunction fallacy in which the individual
judges a greater likelihood that every
member of an inclusive category has a
particular characteristic than that every
member of a subset of the inclusive
category has that characteristic.

21.  Anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic - a
heuristic related to availability by which people
adjust their evaltuations of things by means of
certain reference points called end-anchors
 Framing effects - the way that the options are
presented influences the selection of an option
 Illusory correlation - another judgment
phenomenon in which we tend to see
particular events or particular attributes and
categories as going together because we are
predisposed to do so.

22.  Overconfidence - an individual's
overevaluation of her or his own
skills, knowledge or judgment.
 Sunk-cost fallacy -- the decision to
continue to invest in something simply
because one has invested in it before and
one hopes to recover one's investment.
 Opportunity costs - the prices paid for
availing oneself of certain opportunities
 Hindsight bias - when we look at a situation
retrospectively, we believe we easily can
see all the signs and events leading up to a
particular outcome.

23.  Heuristics do not always lead us astray.
Sometimes, they are amazingly simple
ways of drawing sound conclusions.
 Take the best - a simple heuristic which
can be amazingly effective in decision
situations.

24.  The prefrontal cortex, and particularly the
anterior cingulate cortex, is active during
decision-making process. The amount of
gain associated with a decision also affects
the amount of activation observed in the
parietal region.
 During decision making, the anterior
cingulate cortex is involved in consideration
of potential rewards. This area of the brain is
onvolved in the comparison and weighing
of possible solutions.

25.  a related kind of thinking. It is the
process of drawing conclusions from
principles and from evidence. In
reasoning, we move from what is
already known to infer a new conclusion
or to evaluate a proposed conclusion.

26. 1) Deductive reasoning - process of reasoning from one
or more general statements regarding what is known
to reach a logically certain conclusion. It often
involves reasoning from one or more general
statements regarding what is known to a specific
application of the general statement.
2) Inductive reasoning - process of reasoning from
specific facts or observations to reach a likely
conclusion that may explain the facts. In inductive
reasoning, we never can reach a logically certain
conclusion. We only can reach a particularly well-
founded or probable conclusion.

27.  is based on logical propositions.
• Proposition - basically an
assertion, which may either be true or
false.
• Premises - propositions about which
arguments are made.

28.  one of the primary types of deductive
reasoning. It is in which the reasoner
must draw a conclusion based on an if-
then proposition.
 The conditional if-then proposition states
that if antecedent condition p is met,
then consequent event q follows.

29.  modus ponens - "If p, then q. p.
Therefore, q."
- the reasoner affirms the antecedent
 modus tollens - "If p, then q. Not q.
Therefore, not p.
- the reasoner denies the consequent

30. Type of argument Conditional Existing Inference
proposition condition
p→q P q
modus ponens If you are a You are a Therefore, you
mother, then mother have a child
Deductively valid you have a child
Inferences
p→q ¬ q you do ¬ p therefore,
modus tollens If you are a not have a you are not a
mother, then child. mother
you have a child
p→q ¬p ¬q
denying the If you are a You are not a Therefore, you
antecedent mother, then mother do not have
you have a child child
Deductive fallacies
p→q q p
affirming the If you are a You have a Therefore, you
consequent mother, then child are a mother
you have a child

31. Proposition based on what Test Type of reasoning
shows on the face of the Card
p q Based on
A given card has a Does the card have an even modus ponens
consonant on one side number on the other side?
¬q ¬p Based on
A given card does not Does the card not have a modus tollens
have an even number on consonant on the other side?
one side. That is, a given That is, does the card have a
card has an odd number vowel on the other side?
on one side
¬p ¬q Based on
A given card does not Does the card not have an denying the
have a consonant on one even number on the other antecedents
side. That is, a given card side? That is, does the card
has a vowel on one side. have an odd number on the
other side
q p Based on
A given card has an even Does the card have a affirming the
number on side consonant on the other side? consequent

32. Pragmatic reasoning schemas - general
organizing principles or rules related to
particular kinds of goals, such as
permissions, obligations, or causations.
These schemas are sometimes referred
to as pragmatic rules.

33.  Syllogisms
› Are deductive arguments that involve
drawing conclusions from two premises.
› All syllogisms comprise a major premise, a
minor premise, and a conclusion.
› Sometimes conclusions mat be that no
logical conclusion may be reached based
on two given premises.

34.  In a syllogism, each of the two premises
describes a particular relationship
between two items and at least one of
the items is common to both premises.
 First term of the major premise is the
subject. The common term is the middle
term. Second term is the predicate.
 Relationship among terms is linear.
Quantitative or qualitative comparison.

35. You are smarter than your best friend.
Your best friend is smarter than your roommate.
Which of you is the smartest?
What logical deduction can you reach based on the premises of
this linear syllogism? Is deductive validity the same as truth?
First term Linear Second term
(Item) Relationship (Item)
Premise A You Are smarter Your best friend
than
Premise B Your best friend Is smarter than Your roommate
Conclusion: Who - Is/are the
is smartest? smartest of the
three

36.  When deductively valid, its conclusion
follows logically from the premises.
 How do people solve linear syllogisms?
› Are solved spatially, through mental
representations of linear continua.
› Using a semantic model involving
propositional representations.
 ―you are smarter than your roommate‖
 [smarter (you, your roommate)]
› A combination of spatial and propositional
representations

37.  The premises state something about the
category memberships of the terms.
 Common term as the middle term. First
and second terms in each premise are
linked through the categorical
membership of the terms.

38. All cognitive psychologists are pianists.
All pianists are athletes.
Therefore, all cognitive psychologists are athletes.

39. Type of Form of Description Examples Reversibility
premise premise
The premise positively All males are
(affirmatively) states men.
Universal All A are B that all members of the
All men are
affirmative males Nonreversible
first class (universal) are
member of the second
All A are B.
class All B are A.
No A are B. The premise states that No men No men are
none of the members of females =
Universal (alternative:
the first class are
are No females are
negative All A are not B) members of the second females men.
class Reversible
Na A are B =
No B are A.
The premise states that Some Some F are women
only some of the Some women are F
Particular Some A are members of the first
females Nonreversible
affirmative B class are members of are women Some A are B
the second class Some B are A
The premise states that Some Some F are not
some members of the women
Particular Some A are first class are not
women are Nonreversible
negative not B members of the second not Some A are not B
class females Some B are not A

40.  Atmosphere bias
› If there is at least one negative in the
premises, people will prefer a negative solution.
› If there is at least one particular in the
premises, people will prefer a particular solution.
 Conversion of premises
› Terms of a given premise are reversed.
› ―If A, then B into ―If B, then A‖
› People often believed that the reversed form is
as valid as the original but don’t realize that the
statements are not equivalent.

41.  Using a semantic (meaning-based) process
based on mental models
 Rule-based (―syntactic‖) processes
› Mental Model- is an internal representation of
information that corresponds analogously with
whatever is being represented.
Types of representations of Syllogisms
 Circle diagrams
 Truth table

42.  Heuristics in syllogistic reasoning include
overextension – in these errors, we overextend
the use of strategies that work in some syllogisms to
syllogisms in which the strategies fail us.
 Foreclosure effects – when we fail to consider
all the possibilities before reaching a conclusion.
 Premise phrasing effects – may lead us to leap
to a conclusion without adequately reflecting on
the deductive validity of the syllogism.

43.  Confirmation Bias
› We seek confirmation rather than
disconfirmation of what we already believe.
› Can be detrimental and dangerous in some
circumstances.
› Explicit attention to the premises seems more
likely to lead to valid inferences. Explicit
attention to irrelevant information more often
leads to inferences based on prior beliefs
regarding the believability of the conclusion.

44.  Based on our observations
› Reaching any logically certain conclusion is
not possible.
As the future has not happened, how can we
predict what it will bring?
Given possible alternative futures, how do we
know which one to predict?
For example, in the number series 2,4,6,?,

45.  Inductive reasoning
› Involves reasoning where there is no
logically certain conclusion. Often it involves
reasoning from specific facts or observations
to a general conclusion that may explain the
facts.
› Basis of empirical method.
Why people use inductive reasoning?
 Helps them to become increasingly able to
make sense out of the great variability in their
environment.
 It helps them to predict events in their
environment, thereby reducing their uncertainty.

46. Casual Inferences – how people make
judgments about whether something causes
something else.
John Stuart Mill – proposed a set of canons- widely
accepted heuristic principles on which people
may base their judgments.
o Method of agreement
o Method of difference

47. The office staff of the company There was a drastic
Company 1 organized and joined a union. drop in the value of
The company’s major product the company’s stock
was under suspicion as a
carcinogen.
The office staff did not There was a drastic
Company 2 organize and join a union. The drop in the value of
company’s major product the company’s stock
was under suspicion as a
carcinogen.
Illegal campaign contributions There was no drastic
Company 3 were traced to the company’s drop in the value of
manager’s. the company’s the company’s stock.
major product was not under
suspicion as a carcinogen.

48. Common Errors of Inductive Reasoning
 Law of large numbers
 Ignore base-rate information
 Demonstrate confirmation bias, which leads
to errors such as illusory correlations
 Frequently make mistakes when attempting
to determine casualty based on
correlational evidence alone.
 Failing to recognize that many phenomena
have multiple causes.
 Discounting error – we stop searching fro
additional alternative or contributing causes

49. Confirmation bias can have a major effect
on our everyday lives.
• Self-fulfilling prophecy
Relationship between covariation
(correlation) information and casual
inferences

50.  uses bottom-up strategies and top-down
strategies
 uses information from their sensory
experiences and based on what they
already know

51.  Analogy
› is a cognitive process of
transferring information or meaning from a
particular subject (the analogue or source)
to another particular subject (the
target), and a linguistic expression
corresponding to such a process.
› also refer to the relation between the source
and the target themselves, which is
often, though not necessarily, a similarity

52.  Analogical reasoning seeks to identify
specific sets of similar and dissimilar
characteristics, in search of some unique
combination of characteristics that can
then be used to define distinctive
properties of each set.
 a means of transfer—applying
knowledge acquired in one context in
new situations.

53.  Inductive reasoning is considered a basic
component of thinking, and it is one of
the most broadly studied procedures of
cognition.
 The inductive method, or teaching by
examples, is one of the oldest methods of
instruction.
 In addition, induction, or rather its role in
generating scientific knowledge, is one of
the most enduring problems of philosophy.

54. 2 complementary systems of reasoning
1. Associative System
- involves mental operations based on
observed similarities and temporal contiguities
- can lead to speedy responses that are
highly sensitive to patterns and to general
tendencies
- can detect similarities between observed
patterns and patterns stored in memory

55. 2. Rule-Based System
- involves manipulation based on the
relations among symbols.
- requires more deliberate, painstaking
procedures for reaching conclusions
- carefully analyze relevant features of
the available date, based on rules stored
in memory

56.  Reasoning involves brain areas associated
with working memory, such as the basal
ganglia.
Basal Ganglia – involved in a variety of
functions, including cognitive and learning
 Moral reasoning in persons who show
antisocial behaviors indicative of poor
moral reasoning, malfunctions were noted
in several areas within the prefrontal cortex,
including the dorsal and ventral regions

57.  Impairments in the
amygdala, hippocampus, angular
gyrus, anterior cingulated, temporal
cortex were also observed.
 Anterior Cingulated is involved in
decision making and the hippocampus is
involved in the working memory.
 Therefore, it is to be expected that
malfunctions in theses areas would result
in deficiencies in reasoning.