The document discusses how the rules for running businesses, organizations, and governments successfully changed around 15 years ago at "midnight" without most people noticing. It argues that three dynamic forces - the pace of change, scale of everything, and human interaction density - have overwhelmed the "sticky glue" of inertia and tradition. As a result, the ability to learn and change must now accelerate to keep up with the pace of change in this new world. It then provides 12 new rules for surviving and thriving in this changed landscape.
Marel Q1 2024 Investor Presentation from May 8, 2024
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WAM Lets Talk
1. Welcome to the W orld A fter M idnight Welcome to the WorldAfterMidnight
2. About fifteen years ago all the Rules about how to run a business, organisation or government successfully, were changed or deleted and a completely new set of Rules has been in operation ever sinceā¦
4. Because it happened at MIDNIGHT while you were asleep ā so you didnāt notice and have carried on the same way but your thoughts and actions donāt give you the same results as beforeā¦
10. The top line is 10% than the bottom lineā¦ longer
11. So why did you think they were the same length?
12. Because when you were a child you saw a similar puzzle used to explain parallax. In that problem the lines were the same lengthā¦
13. And you learnt the ācorrect answerā and remembered it for years, for decades up until todayā¦ You remembered it because you, like most of us, believe that ācorrect answersā do not have a shelf-life and last foreverā¦
20. In spite of over 90,000 books on creativity on amazon and google returning over 5.6 million hits if you type in: innovation + creativity + consultant less than 1 in 100,000 ideas is found making money and delivering benefits over two years after ālaunchāā¦
21. In spite of over 90,000 books on creativity on amazon and google returning over 5.6 million hits if you type in: innovation + creativity + consultant less than 1 in 100,000 ideas is found making money and delivering benefits over two years after ālaunchāā¦
22. In the 2008 banking crisis Paulsonās first three-page proposal to spend $700 billion on a rescue plan for the banks was not passed by the US Senate. Later that week a 400 page version was passed by the Senate. It seems that Paulson had forgotten to write the last 397 pages of the plan*ā¦ * Jean Francios Rischard
23. In the 2008 banking crisis Paulsonās first three-page proposal to spend $700 billion on a rescue plan for the banks was not passed by the US Senate. Later that week a 400 page version was passed by the Senate. It seems that Paulson had forgotten to write the last 397 pages of the plan*ā¦ * Jean Francios Rischard
24. In 2004 the price of a barrel of oil was ~$30 and was projected to rise to no more than ~$35 by the end of the decade. By the end of the year to the surprise of most ā experts ā the price was nudging ~$100. It peaked at ~ $140 and then fell to ~$90 within two months ā all this volatility happened inspite of over 40 years of proven reservesā¦
25. In 2004 the price of a barrel of oil was ~$30 and was projected to rise to no more than ~$35 by the end of the decade. By the end of the year to the surprise of most ā experts ā the price was nudging ~$100. It peaked at ~ $140 and then fell to ~$90 within two months ā all this volatility happened inspite of over 40 years of proven reservesā¦
26. A 2008 survey of 1000 companies showed that their budgets, carefully prepared over an approximately three month period, were obsolete or needed changes prior to being published widely in the organisationā¦
27. A 2008 survey of 1000 companies showed that their budgets, carefully prepared over an approximately three month period, were obsolete or needed changes prior to being published widely in the organisationā¦
28. A study on change and project success by Oracle* compared the average project to āa family of five going on holiday from London to New York at a cost of Ā£ 1,200ā. It concluded that in the average project, āthe family actually ended up in Quito, Ecuador, at a cost of Ā£ 1,716 whilst leaving two of the children behind at homeāā¦ *Peter Sparrow
29. A study on change and project success by Oracle* compared the average project to āa family of five going on holiday from London to New York at a cost of Ā£ 1,200ā. It concluded that in the average project, āthe family actually ended up in Quito, Ecuador, at a cost of Ā£ 1,716 whilst leaving two of the children behind at homeāā¦ *Peter Sparrow
30. In November 2008 The EU countries abandoned a plan to ābalance their budgets by 2010ā. The deadline was moved to the less definite āmedium termā. Surprisingly they had only adopted the plan in April 2007 ā So even short term planning has become long term planningā¦
31. In November 2008 The EU countries abandoned a plan to ābalance their budgets by 2010ā. The deadline was moved to the less definite āmedium termā. Surprisingly they had only adopted the plan in April 2007 ā So even short term planning has become long term planningā¦
37. Hierarchies and reporting lines which control from the top, so nothing random can happenā¦ Cultures , processes and systems which are not built with the āuserā in mind and rarely modernisedā¦ Laws , regulations , policies and concepts which are added but never updated or removed even when they are past their āsell-byā dateā¦
38. Hierarchies and reporting lines which control from the top, so nothing random can happenā¦ Cultures , processes and systems which are not built with the āuserā in mind and rarely modernisedā¦ Laws , regulations , policies and concepts which are added but never updated or removed even when they are past their āsell-byā dateā¦
40. A Dynamic Trio ā¦ andā¦ Dynamic Dynamic Dynamic
41. There are as many people alive today as have ever lived and the number of humans on the planet is increasing faster than exponentiallyā¦ More than half of them live closely in citiesā¦ Over 40% of them have daily access to ācyberspaceā through radio, TV, phone and internet and can respond instantly to global events and trendsā¦
42. There are as many people alive today as have ever lived and the number of humans on the planet is increasing faster than exponentiallyā¦ More than half of them live closely in citiesā¦ Over 40% of them have daily access to ācyberspaceā through radio, TV, phone and internet and can respond instantly to global events and trendsā¦
43. Dynamic Force Human Interaction Density Letās call thisā¦ 1
44. Cyberspace drives everything along at the speed of light . Technology enables faster and more productive activityā¦ Every business, organisation, governmental body, third sector organisation is proactively seeking changeā¦ Because Share P rice = E arnings x G rowth Capitalism drives ever upward on the quest for growthā¦
45. Cyberspace drives everything along at the speed of light . Technology enables faster and more productive activityā¦ Every business, organisation, governmental body, third sector organisation is proactively seeking changeā¦ Because Share P rice = E arnings x G rowth Capitalism drives ever upward on the quest for growthā¦
46. Dynamic Force The Pace and Speed of Change Letās call thisā¦ 2
47. With the internet even a ādesk under the stairsā is the HQ of a global business - The scale of business is not its size ā¦ Food prices rise in Kenya because America plants bio-fuel crops - Supply chains are l o n g, convoluted and globalā¦ Cutting down the Amazon rain forest accelerates global warming - Armageddon for all. So the rest of the world wants to āinterfereāā¦
48. With the internet even a ādesk under the stairsā is the HQ of a global business - The scale of business is not its size ā¦ Food prices rise in Kenya because America plants bio-fuel crops - Supply chains are l o n g, convoluted and globalā¦ Cutting down the Amazon rain forest accelerates global warming - Armageddon for all. So the rest of the world wants to āinterfereāā¦
49. Dynamic Force The Scale of Everything Letās call thisā¦ 3
50. When the Sticky āGlueā of Inertia and Tradition winsā¦ If you play āPoohsticksā* in a stream itās predictable. If you put your stick on the left it flows down the left hand sideā¦ * Winnie the Pooh A. A. Milne
51. Thatās because the Dynamic Trio are winningā¦ If you play āPoohsticksā in a turbulent torrent you canāt predict where the stick will go. But you do know it will probably go downstreamā¦
52. Over the past couple of decades the ābalance of powerā between the forces has shifted decisively - creating a new patternā¦
54. 1 2 The PAST NOW 3 Sticky Glue So it starts off almost flat & straight...
55. 1 2 3 Sticky Glue The PAST NOW ā¦ and then starts to curve upwardsā¦
56. 1 2 3 Sticky Glue The PAST NOW ā¦ and even further upwardsā¦
57. Do you remember the days of ācorrect answersā? To have correct answers means we can study and learn about something faster than it changesā¦ ā¦and we couldā¦
58. 1 2 3 Sticky Glue The PAST NOW Our Rate of Learning Pace of Change around Us
59. But what has happened to our ability to learn and change over the decades? - Has it led the change in the world? - Has it kept pace? - Has it fallen behind ?
60. Do you live in an organisational hierarchy where you canāt move faster than the monthly meeting or quarterly budget cycle and can only work on what your boss approves or fits in the strategy ?
61. Do you work in a market which believes in ā cycles ā and so you only act long after it is obvious that the cycle is broken ?
62. Does your Government talk about ā annual spending plansā? Do they govern by setting policy? Are many of the policies in conflict with each other? Do the Laws they pass have a āvalid-untilā date?
63. Do you work in an organisation which ābenchmarksā against other organisations just like them and has little curiosity of what is happening in other industries or organisations? Where people often use the expression, ābut in the real worldā¦ā in order to justify their narrow mindedness?
64. If you do, then learning and improvement will suffer. You, your organisation or your country will find it tough to accelerate learning and improvement inspite of all the opportunities of technology, information and connectednessā¦
65. 1 2 3 Sticky Glue The PAST NOW Our Rate of Learning Pace of Change around Us
66. The PAST NOW When the lines crossed over the rules for success were rewrittenā¦ . Our Rate of Learning Pace of Change around Us
67. The PAST NOW When the lines crossed over the rules for success were rewrittenā¦ . ā¦ that was MIDNIGHT
68. About fifteen years ago all the Rules about how to run a business, organisation or government successfully, were changed or deleted and a completely new set of Rules has been in operation ever sinceā¦
69. The PAST NOW In the OLD WORLD Predictable & Cartesian Forecasts Command & Control Strategy Customer More of the same Growth Hierarchy Market Share Management Best Practice Efficiency Economies of Scale Barriers to Entry Wealth=Money=Value Towns & Cities In the NEW WORLD Ambiguous and Chaotic Learning Self-Directed Teams/ Networks Business Model Stakeholder Innovation Sustainability Virtual Organisations/Teams Promoters & Communities Leadership first Design Effectiveness & Differentiation Evolve, Dominate or Die Disruptive Technology Wealth isnāt Money isnāt Value Social Networks
70. The PAST NOW In the OLD WORLD Predictable & Cartesian Forecasts Command & Control Strategy Customer More of the same Growth Hierarchy Market Share Management Best Practice Efficiency Economies of Scale Barriers to Entry Wealth=Money=Value Towns & Cities In the NEW WORLD Ambiguous and Chaotic Learning Self-Directed Teams/ Networks Business Model Stakeholder Innovation Sustainability Virtual Organisations/Teams Promoters & Communities Leadership first Design Effectiveness & Differentiation Evolve, Dominate or Die Disruptive Technology Wealth isnāt Money isnāt Value Social Networks
71. You canāt see the bigger pattern by studying the minutiae of the eventsā¦ Events evaporate but bigger patterns persist* * Eddie Obeng
77. 1. Say AND not OR! Is your solution integrative? 2. Assume Fair=Different not Fair=Equal Does your solution recognise the need to tailor actions to meet different populations/ needs? 3. Change DEPENDENCE to INTERDEPENDENCE Is your solution capable of self governance? 4. Do NOTHING of NO use! Is your solution designed to ensure focus on delivering to your goal of making money (delivering benefit to society)? 5. Stakeholders rule OK! Is your solution designed around the people who have to deliver it and live with the results? 6. Make time fit! To what extent have you made scoped your solution to the possible rather than the nice-to-have impossible? 7. CHUNK IT OR JUNK IT!ā Have you reduced the scope to de-risk your solution appropriately? 8. ALL CONSTRAINTS INTO MEAT SPACE Have you ensured that your solution appropriately uses new technologies? 9. Unlearn EVERYTHING ! Have you ensured that your solution appropriately uses new knowledge? 10. Donāt change anything ! Have you taken into account the overall impact of change on your ability to deliver results? 11. LOOP IT UP! Is your solution self-sustaining? 12. Go VIRTUAL! Have you developed a solution with powerful results where the effect is more important than the form? Where technology enables beyond tradition? Ours areā¦
78. 1. Say AND not OR! Is your solution integrative? 2. Assume Fair=Different not Fair=Equal Does your solution recognise the need to tailor actions to meet different populations/ needs? 3. Change DEPENDENCE to INTERDEPENDENCE Is your solution capable of self governance? 4. Do NOTHING of NO use! Is your solution designed to ensure focus on delivering to your goal of making money (delivering benefit to society)? 5. Stakeholders rule OK! Is your solution designed around the people who have to deliver it and live with the results? 6. Make time fit! To what extent have you made scoped your solution to the possible rather than the nice-to-have impossible? 7. CHUNK IT OR JUNK IT!ā Have you reduced the scope to de-risk your solution appropriately? 8. ALL CONSTRAINTS INTO MEAT SPACE Have you ensured that your solution appropriately uses new technologies? 9. Unlearn EVERYTHING ! Have you ensured that your solution appropriately uses new knowledge? 10. Donāt change anything ! Have you taken into account the overall impact of change on your ability to deliver results? 11. LOOP IT UP! Is your solution self-sustaining? 12. Go VIRTUAL! Have you developed a solution with powerful results where the effect is more important than the form? Where technology enables beyond tradition? Ours areā¦