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How To Deal With Disruption and How To Thrive In A Disruptive Age
The lecture by Dr. Fahri Karakas discusses the impact of disruption on careers and education, emphasizing the decline of traditional jobs and the rise of an entrepreneurial era. It highlights the necessity for individuals to adapt, create personal assets, and develop a growth mindset in response to rapid technological changes and uncertainties. Ultimately, it advocates for self-disruption as a means to thrive in an increasingly competitive and evolving landscape.
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How To Deal With Disruption and How To Thrive In A Disruptive Age
- 1. University of EastAnglia Norwich Business School Management Skills and Personal Development NBS-7031X Lectures 3-4 8 February, 2024 Dr. Fahri Karakas F.Karakas@uea.ac.uk
- 2. Slide 1.2 Hackathon:How to Deal With Disruption Disruption and Change Understanding Disruption Understanding Exponential Change Towards the End of Jobs Disrupting Education Learning Adventure: Soft Skills Workshop Key message of today: Disrupt yourself or get disrupted + +CV and Cover Letter– study at home +New Skills for a New Era – study at home
- 5. HERE IS APUZZLE: Why do you need to create your own assets in this day and age? -Decline of jobs -End of industrial revolution -Start of entrepreneurial revolution
- 6. Slide 1.6 Alltraditional jobs are in decline Career ladder is gone There is too much uncertainty Everyone has to think like an entrepreneur The industrial revolution is over The entrepreneur revolution is starting
- 7. Life Advice: A PosterGuide Why You Need To Create Your Own Assets
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- 9. HERE IS APUZZLE: Which British artist best depicts disruption and destruction? -Banksy
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- 12. HERE IS APUZZLE: Which documentary, directed by Doug Pray, depicts the role of disruption and inspiration in the advertising industry in the US? -Art and Copy
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- 14. HERE IS APUZZLE: Who is the agent provocateur and advertising icon known for 92 covers he designed for Esquire magazine from 1962 to 1972? He has a book titled “Damn Good Advice” -George Lois
- 15. Slide 1.15 RalphLauren, Perry Ellis and Calvin Klein Tommy Hilfiger is next.
- 16. UNDERSTANDING DISRUPTION TOP 10INDUSTRIES RIPE FOR DISRUPTION 16
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- 19. Slide 1.19 Whenwe think about the future, we tend to assume that most things will stay similar and trends will continue in a linear fashion. This is almost never the case. The world is changing drastically in front of our eyes. 2020 brought a lot of surprises and black swans in our lives — including the Coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent economic depression Technology companies have become more powerful than ever. Apple’s market value has surged to $2-trillion market value. Top 7 companies gained more than two trillion in market value during 2020. We will witness large-scale changes and unexpected events in the next decade. One of the biggest drivers of change will be exponential technologies. Wired experts talk of Mars colonies, a permanent moon base, accelerated genome sequencing, little nuclear power plants, and a possible climate apocalypse in 2030. Understanding Non-linear/Exponential Change
- 20. HERE IS APUZZLE: What were some of the top tech breakthroughs of 2020? -Alphafold, -GPT-3, -Neuralink, -Quantum Supremacy, -Starlink satellites, -Antiaging drugs
- 21. We lived adecade of events in 2020 For many, 2020 felt like five years packed into one… • Historic pandemic • Historic social movement (Black Lives Matter) • Historic stimulus • Historic wildfires • Historic election • Historic stock market high • Historic technology breakthroughs (Alphafold, GPT-3, Neuralink Quantum Supremacy, Starlink satellites, Antiaging drugs etc)
- 23. We saw once-in-a-generationevents in nearly every sphere of life. Each of these events rippled throughout society leading to unpredictable second-order effects which upended our long-held beliefs about media, democracy, business, and citizenship. We had to fundamentally rethink our lives, relationships, and work. Here's the thing though… 2020 isn't a temporary blip before things go back to normal. It is the kickoff to an unprecedented acceleration that few have considered, let alone prepared for. If time is like a treadmill, 2020 was running. The near-future will be an all out sprint. How do we keep up? Because human biology evolves so slowly we don't notice, ideas (cultures, strategies, technologies, etc.) evolve so quickly, we can't keep up. Idea evolution is like biological evolution on steroids. In other words, in a moment when many are already feeling overwhelmed by change, things are about to take off even faster. 20 years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what it is now. Things will keep accelerating from there, and in 40 years, it will be 16x
- 28. HERE IS APUZZLE: "We won't experience 100 years of technological advance in the 21st century; we will witness on the order of 20,000 years of progress or about 1000 times greater than what was achieved in the twentieth century.” Who said these words? He also predicts “technological singularity” — the crucial moment when machines become smarter than humans — will occur in our lifetime. -Ray Kurzweil
- 29. EXPONENTIAL TIMES • 20years from now, the rate of change will be 4x what is now. • For someone who is about 40 today, when they're 60 in 2040, the rate of paradigm change will be 4x what it is now. • For someone who is 10 today, when they're 60, they'll experience a year of change in 11 days. What We Can Do About Time Acceleration In Our Careers • "In order to keep up with the world of 2050, you will need not merely to invent new ideas and products but above all to reinvent yourself again and again."- Yuval Noah Harari • We are on the precipice of an era of extreme competition-which means that the amount and pace of competition will accelerate 4x in the next 20 years. • If you don't prepare now, you will be progressively outcompeted and overwhelmed.
- 30. Exercise Puzzles on the Rateof Change
- 31. •I have 3small puzzles for you now. •Please provide your estimates. 31
- 32. Dynamic ‘Creative Destruction’ Wedo live in interesting times. Forget traditional jobs, job security, upward mobility •Fortune 500 companies from 1955 vs. 2014. •What % of them are still on the list? Any guesses? 32
- 33. Dynamic ‘Creative Destruction’ Wedo live in interesting times. Forget traditional jobs, job security, upward mobility •89% of Fortune 500 companies from 1955 are not on the list in 2014. 33
- 34. Dynamic ‘Creative Destruction’ Wedo live in interesting times. Forget traditional jobs, job security, upward mobility •Guess the average age of a company listed on the S&P 500 •During 1920s? •Right now? 34
- 35. Dynamic ‘Creative Destruction’ Wedo live in interesting times. Forget traditional jobs, job security, upward mobility • The average age of a company listed on the S&P 500 was: • 67 years old in the 1920s • Right, now this age is 12 years only and it keeps dropping. 35
- 37. Dynamic ‘Creative Destruction’ Wedo live in interesting times. Forget traditional jobs, job security, upward mobility • In 2028, what % of S&P 500 companies will stay on the current list? • Any guesses? Estimates? 37
- 38. Dynamic ‘Creative Destruction’ Wedo live in interesting times. Forget traditional jobs, job security, upward mobility • In 2028, 40% of all S&P 500 companies will disappear from this list. • 60% are expected to survive the list – although this figure might fall even more radically. 38
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- 43. How Ninja makes$500,000 per month playing Fortnite
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- 54. Slide 1.54 10 smartindividual strategies to survive and thrive during the disruptive 2020s: • You need to develop your antifragility and preparedness for black swans. • You need to learn to think differently by learning across disciplines, applying mental models, and focusing on the long term. • You need to develop new capabilities for dealing with FONKU — the fear of not keeping up. • You need to focus on using your own imagination every day. • You need to take care of your brain and improve your learning habits. • You need to forget the career ladder and start creating your own assets. • You need to become a polymath (renaissance person) who learns and innovates beyond borders. • You need to make a commitment to create your own creative assets and invest in your own creativity. • You need to develop your inspirational capital by being curious and passionate. • You need to develop positive habits, systems, and assets to take control of your own future.
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- 62. or be disrupted DisruptYourself
- 63. HERE IS APUZZLE: Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote an influential book, creating a theory on unpredictable severe events. What is its title? “An unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected and has potentially severe consequences.” - Events like September 11, Trump’s election, Brexit, or Covid-19 -Black Swan
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- 65. HERE IS APUZZLE: According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, what are the top 3 most harmful addictions ? -Heroin -Carbohydrates -A monthly salary
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- 67. HERE IS APUZZLE: What do we call a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of constant changes, unprecedented challenges, and incomplete or contradictory requirements? Financial crises, inequality, climate change etc. -A wicked problem
- 68. Slide 1.68 Your Careeras a Wicked Problem WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS MODEL? HOW CAN YOU COPE?
- 69. HERE IS APUZZLE: If your career is a wicked problem, how do you start addressing or solving it? - Be prepared for contingencies - Be flexible, resilient, resourceful, and entrepreneurial
- 70. Slide 1.70 Your Careeris a Wicked Problem 1. Do not settle with easiest and most convenient option available to you. 2. Cultivate a lot of diverse seeds, experiment, and see which options have more potential (i.e. grow) 3. Be prepared for uncertainty through developing more resilience, resourcefulness, entrepreneurship, and creativity
- 71. HERE IS APUZZLE: Who developed the theory and concept of “the growth mindset”? People having a growth mindset believe that intelligence and abilities can be developed through effort, persistence, trying different strategies and learning from mistakes. - Carol Dweck
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- 75. HERE IS APUZZLE: Which book is the best seller book on personal finance? This book was published in 1997 It has since sold over 40 million copies - Rich Dad Poor Dad - Robert Kiyosaki
- 76. HERE IS APUZZLE: How do you become rich? What are the basic principles? - Make money work for you - Create or buy assets, avoid debt/liabilities - Save and invest early - Create streams of passive income
- 77. Slide 1.77 “RICH DAD,POOR DAD” Kayasaki - Game: Cash Flow
- 78. HERE IS APUZZLE: Which of the following existed before 2007? INSTAGRAM, SNAPCHAT, PINTEREST, TIKTOK, WHATSAPP AIRBNB, UBER, TESLA BITCOIN, BLOCKCHAIN, 4G, 5G
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- 81. HERE IS APUZZLE: Which company compiles 50 most successful disruptors and start-ups of the year? CNBC
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- 84. Slide 1.84 CNBC Disruptorcompanies
- 85. Slide 1.85 Theseforward-thinking start-ups have not only identified unexploited niches in the market that have the potential to become billion-dollar businesses, a majority of them already are billion-dollar businesses. ◦ A startling 41 disruptors this year are unicorns that have already reached or passed the billion-dollar mark. These 50 companies have raised nearly $56 billion in venture capital at an implied market valuation of more than $552 billion. ◦ Biotech and machine learning to transportation and retail and even exploring outer space ◦ Drones and genes to the battles for control in the rapidly growing ridesharing, lodging and cryptocurrency industries ◦ 40 with social or environmental purpose – deal with climate crisis — these innovations are changing the world. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/these-are-the-2022-cnbc- disruptor-50-companies.html
- 86. HERE IS APUZZLE: WEF: By 2022 everyone will need how many days of learning in one year? 101
- 88. HERE IS APUZZLE: Who has first coined the term “FONKU” in an article? “Fear of Not Keeping Up” Fahri Karakas
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- 91. HERE IS APUZZLE: During Covid, which streaming service was the most expensive in the world? Harvard University
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- 96. HERE IS APUZZLE: Which university has no teachers, no syllabus, and no fees? Ecole 42
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- 98. Slide 1.98 Thisuniversity has no teachers, syllabus or fees: Paris's École 42 is reinventing education for the future (training the next Zuckerberg) ◦ http://www.wired.co.uk/article/paris-tech-school-ecole-42 ◦ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9OKfktv3k-0 ◦ https://www.42.us.org/the-university/bootcamp-piscine/ https://www.udacity.com/ https://www.techinasia.com/online-learning-platform-17zuoye-raises-100m- series-lei-jun-yuri-milner http://www.itutorgroup.com/about_1.html https://www.pluralsight.com/ http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/higher/will-the-minerva-project- the-first-elite-american-university-to-be-launched-in-a-century-change-the- 9624379.html
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- 100. HERE IS APUZZLE: At which school do you pay tuition only after you get a job? Lambda School
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- 102. HERE IS APUZZLE: Which company has started $49 dollar/month courses to replace college degrees? GOOGLE
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- 105. University of theFuture Learning Adventure
- 106. Exercise: How would youdesign the university of the future? How would you disrupt higher education? In the next 1 minute: Create min. 2 ideas - capture them on a white page.
- 107. My vision University ofthe Future I try to design and improve this module based on this model. What do you think university of the future should look like? How can we move towards there?
- 108. My vision: Universities as Placesof Imagination
- 109. Learning Adventure Prepare yourCV and Cover Letter- Do at home
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- 112. Slide 1.112 Innovation inorganisations Having fun Being creative Freedom & flexibility
- 113. Slide 1.113 Whichjob will you be applying for as part of your coursework? ◦ Entry level job ◦ Which department/position? ◦ Find a job advertisement and attach it in your coursework ◦ Customise your job application for this job. Come up with a list of Top 3 best companies that you would like to work for. Why do you want them? Which department? Why? Which job title? ◦ A) Think about the job requirements ◦ B) Think about your own KSAs (Knowledge, Skills, Abilities) and experience ◦ C) Think about Evidence of Fit between A and B ◦ D) How will you demonstrate this evidence of fit? Talk through these points with your team
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- 116. Slide 1.116 Apply designtools, concepts, and thinking to the world of careers and employability. As youth unemployment reaches unprecedented levels in the UK and especially in London; you can effectively use the resources and perspectives of the design discipline to empower yourself in preparation for the job market Rotman's business design courses Ayse Birsel’s "Design the Life You Love“ workshops https://www.huffpost.com/entry/forget-new-years-resoluti_b_798710 Harvard's "Design Thinking and Innovation" course by Professor Srikant M. Datar Open University's distance course on "Design thinking: creativity for the 21st century"
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- 119. SoftSkillsWorkshop WHY SOFT SKILLSARE THE NEW BLACK
- 120. 120 Let us startwith a puzzle • Let us start with the following question: • What do you think are the eight most important qualities of Google’s top employees?
- 121. 121 TOP 8 QUALITIESOF GOOGLETOP EMPLOYEES • being a good coach; • communicating and listening well; • possessing insights into others (including others different values and points of view); • curiosity toward the ideas of your teammates; • having empathy toward and being supportive of one’s colleagues; • being a good critical thinker and problem solver; • being able to make connections across complex ideas; • emotional intelligence.
- 122. Slide 1.122 1 2 2 Youwill attend a mock job interview in a few minutes. Your potential employers will ask you the following question: Why should we hire you instead of 120 other applicants? You need to come up with a story to tell your potential employers. This story should illustrate your soft skills. You can choose any soft skill (or a mix of them); including: ◦ Team work and collaboration skills ◦ Communication skills ◦ Creativity and problem solving skills ◦ Leadership skills ◦ Customer service Please write down this story. Remember the critical incident. ◦ Remember the setting. Who were involved? How did events unfold? ◦ What were the challenges? How did you overcome them?
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- 125. Slide 1.125 1 2 5 Idecided to run as a leader to lead the school team for a national competition. My friends were worried that the people on the team were not motivated and they lacked the drive and the skills. They told me: “You are making a mistake.” Once I enrolled at my chosen school, I saw that my friends had been correct about the character of the people on the team. The team members were not motivated, not athletic, and needless to say, lost every race they entered. Three other freshman who had walked onto the team joined me in deciding to change the team members’ attitudes. However, animosity was abundant between the upperclassman and the freshman. While we won races, the upperclassmen felt inferior, causing internal conflict in the team. Regardless, I was determined to persuade the team to mesh well to create unity. Consequently, the upperclassmen quit the team. I have worked very hard to be a role model and motivate and inspire my team members. We believed in our shared goal and worked relentlessly until late hours. Eventually, we advanced to the national level; getting a third-place medal. The moral of this story is that when I was challenged to do the impossible, my devotion, character, team leadership, and tenacity persevered, while also helping the team.
- 126. Slide 1.126 1 2 6 Asa customer-service rep for a video-rental company, I once had an irate customer who left three messages on my voicemail in about 10 minutes demanding a call back. I listened to the customer explain that she was upset because she had purchased a loyalty program membership from us, and then several days later, we were giving away the same memberships at no cost. I apologized to the customer and asked her how I could help. She stated that she wanted her money back and she would no longer be a member. I agreed to refund her money. I then bought her a thank-you card and enclosed her refund and a free membership to our loyalty program. I also noticed that several times during the phone conversation, she had stopped to yell at her children, so I also enclosed two coupons for free kids’ rentals. I thanked her for her business, apologized for not meeting her expectations, and invited her to bring her children in for a free video rental. I also enclosed my business card and asked her to call me directly if she was ever disappointed in any way while visiting one of our locations. She telephoned me when she received the card and told me that was the nicest thing any person had ever done for her when she was upset with a business. I again thanked her for her business and told her that she was my bread and butter. If she wasn’t happy, then I couldn’t be either!
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- 129. Simulated Job Interviews: TellYour Story Learning Adventure
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- 131. Slide 1.131 1 3 1 CLUSTERSOF TWO One of you will be recruiter; and the other will be job applicant. Ask your interviewees: ◦ Why should we hire you instead of 120 other applicants? Tell us a story about yourself and your skills or experiences that differentiate you apart? Each job applicant tells their own story in 2-3 minutes.
- 132. Slide 1.132 1 3 2 CLUSTERSOF TWO Now, you will exchange the roles. The recruiters will be job applicants. The job applicants will be the recruiters now. Repeat the question so that they respond: ◦ Why should we hire you instead of 120 other applicants? Tell us a story about yourself and your skills or experiences that differentiate you apart? Each job applicant tells their own story in 2-3 minutes.
- 133. Slide 1.133 1 3 3 CLUSTERSOF TWO Now, please provide constructive feedback to each other. Everyone gives feedback quickly in less than 1 minute. After finishing the exercise and sharing the feedback/suggestions, write down a POP CORN for the others in your team. ◦ A pop corn is something you write on a piece of paper for that person to keep as a memory. ◦ It should be something positive, memorable, constructive.
- 134. How Professions areChanged by TikTok The Case of Cilgin Dondurmaci (Ice Cream Vendor in Turkey)
- 135. New Skills fora New Era Please study these slides at home
- 136. 136 Jobs will beautomated. Technical knowledge and skills will probably be automated. Implication: Soft skills, interpersonal skills, and creativity will be even more important (since robots and computers cannot replicate these).
- 137. 137 People Skills (softskills) trump technical skills and knowledge
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- 140. Slide 1.140 Trends andstatistics Nobody knows Dodgeball. Everyone knows Foursquare. Why? We spend 3 billion hours in gaming every week. Carnegie Mellon University estimated the average young person today spent 10,000 playing online games before the age of 21 11 billion hours were spent playing Angry Birds last year Corporate success examples include Samsung Nation and Nike Plus After LinkedIn created ‘Profile Completeness Bar’, profile completion rates increased more than 20%. https://blog.captainup.com/analysis-of-linkedin- driving-engagement-with-gamification/ 140
- 141. Slide 1.141 World EconomicForum Report We are at the beginning of a Fourth Industrial Revolution. The rise of the sharing economy allows people to monetize everything from their empty house to their car. Developments in genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing and biotechnology are all building on and amplifying one another. This will lay the foundation for a revolution more comprehensive and all-encompassing than anything we have ever seen. Smart systems—homes, factories, farms, grids or cities—will help tackle problems ranging from supply chain management to climate change. 141
- 142. Slide 1.142 142 Assignment: Pleasewatch this at home and reflect on the future.
- 143. Slide 1.143 Assignment: Pleasewatch this at home to understand AI, its past and its future.
- 144. Slide 1.144 Lorem ipsumdolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Etiam aliquet eu mi quis lacinia. Ut fermentum a magna ut. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut fermentum a magna ut eleifend. Integer convallis suscipit ante eu varius. Morbi a purus dolor. Suspendisse sit amet ipsum finibus justo viverra blandit. Ut congue quis tortor eget sodales. 144
- 145. Slide 1.145 145 Assignment: Pleasethink about each of these future skills. Do you have them? How can you develop them further?
- 146. 146 THE FUTURE WORKPLACE WILLRELY ON SOFT SKILLS • Automation and artificial intelligence will result in a greater proportion of jobs relying on soft skills. • Thanks to cutting-edge technology, tasks that require hard skills are continuing to decline, making soft skills key differentiators in the workplace. • A study by Deloitte Access Economics predicts that two-thirds of all jobs in Australia will rely on soft skills by 2030. This trend will inevitably be mirrored globally.
- 147. Slide 1.147 Robot-Proof: HigherEducation in the Age of Artificial Intelligence Driverless cars are hitting the road, powered by artificial intelligence. ◦ Robots can climb stairs, open doors, win Jeopardy, analyze stocks, work in factories, find parking spaces, advise oncologists. ◦ In the past, automation was considered a threat to low-skilled labor. Now, many high- skilled functions, including interpreting medical images, doing legal research, and analyzing data, are within the skill sets of machines. ◦ How can we prepare students for their professional lives when professions themselves are disappearing? ◦ Students need to learn how to invent, to create, and to discover―to fill needs in society that even the most sophisticated artificial intelligence agent cannot. A “robot-proof” education calibrates students with a creative mindset and the mental elasticity to invent, discover, or create something valuable to society - a scientific proof, a hip-hop recording, a web comic, a cure for cancer. A new discipline, humanics, prepares students to compete in a labor market in which smart machines work alongside human professionals. ◦ The new literacies of humanics are data literacy, technological literacy, and human literacy. Students will need data literacy to manage the flow of big data, and technological literacy to know how their machines work, but human literacy―the humanities, communication, and design―to function as a human being. Life-long learning opportunities will support their ability to adapt to change. The only certainty about the future is change. Higher education based on the new literacies of humanics can equip students for living and working through change. 147
- 148. Slide 1.148 The GigEconomy: The Complete Guide to Getting Better Work, Taking More Time Off, and Financing the Life You Want ◦ From Uber to the presidential debates, the gig economy has been dominating the headlines...and for good reason. ◦ Today, more than a third of Americans are working in the gig economy-mixing together short-term jobs, contract work, and freelance assignments. The Gig Economy is an uncertain but rewarding new world. Succeeding in it starts with shifting gears to recognize that only you control your future. Next is leveraging your skills, knowledge, and network to create your own career trajectory- one immune to the whims of an employer. ◦ Packed with research, exercises, and anecdotes, this book supplies strategies-ranging from the professional to the personal-to help you: Construct a life based on your priorities and vision of success Cultivate connections without networking Create your own security Take more time off Build flexibility into your financial life Face your fears by reducing risk Prepare for the future and much more Layoffs... recessions... Corporate jobs are not only unstable- they're increasingly scarce. It's time to take charge of your own career and lead the life you actually want. 1 4 8
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- 153. Slide 1.153 LegitimizeDaydreaming – a blog piece by me http://www.mixhackathon.com/hack/legitimi ze-daydreaming-fly-beyond-iron-cage Miyazaki Dreams of Flying - Video Essay https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PATDDT n_vHY
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- 159. Slide 1.159 ReadSelf Making Studio and complete the exercises Go over lecture materials Read the FONKU article: https://medium.com/@fahrikarakas/welcome-to-the-era-of-fonku-fear-of-not-keeping-up-46d9ce8523dd Choose your job/position Update your CV Write your cover letter for this job/position Choose which creative challenges/imagination experiments you will do It is your responsibility to learn module skills/knowledge and make them useful for yourself and your career
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