Analytical take on 10 megatrends facing the world

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Megatrends 101
10 /10 Series – 10 “killer” slides in 10 minutes
28th June 2020
FAST FOOD FOR
QUICK DIGESTION
OFFICIAL
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10

2. 2

3. 3
These slides were spun up from a number of solid reads
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Hugh’s Killer
Idea’s (HKI) Book
Rating
Hugh’s Killer Ideas is an Amazon Associate. Book purchases resulting from Amazon links may earn an affiliate commission

4. 4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yes. Back to school. It’s Quiz time! ☺
• Homo sapiens (essentially the first humans) have been walking the
Earth for around ~200,000 years. What percent of the planet’s
existence is that?
❑ A: A tiny amount
(0.004%)
❑ B: A small
amount (10%)
❑ C: A substantial
amount (~50%)
1
• China has the largest population out of any country (~1.4bn), and
makes up almost one fifth of the world’s population. While in 1978,
~90% of it’s population were in extreme poverty (<$1.9 per day ppp),
by 2014 that number was less than 1%. How large is China’s economy
relative to the USA (PPP adjusted)?
❑ A: Half the size ❑ B: About the same ❑ C: A third larger
2
• In 1750 the world’s population stood at ~700m. In 2020, the number
has grow to ~7.6bn (more than 11x). By 2300, the UN predicts the
world population will be … ?
❑ A: Much larger
(~20bn)
❑ B: A bit larger (~10bn) ❑ C: About the
same (~7.6bn)
3
You can find the answers at the top of the next slide!
10 10

5. 5
Humans haven’t been around for long (around
0.004% of the earth’s existence)
~200,000 years ago
Humans start walking the earth, and have
a life expectancy of ~30 years until ~1800s
117 years ago
1903, the Wright brother
invented the first
successful airplane
You
are
here
today
4.5 billions
years ago
Earth is formed
500 million
years ago
Lobsters
200 million
years ago
Dinosaurs
5300 years ago
First invention of writing by the
Sumerians of Mesopotamia
2796 years ago
Olympic Games
instituted in Greece
570 years ago
1450 Johannes
Gutenberg developed a
commercially ready
printing press (at a time
when we believed the
sun orbited the Earth)
141 years ago
1879 American inventor
Thomas Edison produces
a long-lasting light bulb
Evolution of time
According to thinker and professor Jordan Peterson,
lobsters and humans have such similar nervous systems
that antidepressants also work on lobsters. In his book 12
Rules for Life, one rule refers to standing up straight with
your shoulders back just like a lobster. By standing tall
and sitting up properly, it can create a positive reinforcing
psycho-physiological feedback loop 10 10
“Remember to look up at the stars and not down at your feet.
Try to make sense of what you see and wonder about what
makes the universe exist. Be curious.” – Stephen Hawking
“The further backward you look, the further
forward you can see” – Winston Churchill
Answers to Quiz! Q1. A: A tiny amount (0.004%). Q2. C: A third larger. Q3. B: A bit larger (~9bn).
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

6. 6
& we only made it to New Zealand about 1,000 years ago
10 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Where it
all began!

7. 7
Across a range of indictors, the recent global trends over the last
half century have been very positive. Go team!
Infant mortality, 1950-2015,
% of children born alive dying before age 5
Life expectancy, 1960-2015,
#
GDP per capita, 1960-2017,
USD PPP
Adult literacy levels, 1980-2015,
% over age 15 who are literate
India
China
USA
Prosperity is a very recent achievement ..
In 2016, the average GDP per capita was
more than 10-times the average of the
past.
Across the entire historical sample, the
authors found that on average, around a
quarter died in the first year of life. Around
half died as children.
Estimates suggest that up until 1900, life
expectancy was around 30 years of age.
As Thomas Hobbes said: “Life in the state
of nature is solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, &
short”
While only 12% of the people in the world
could read and write in 1820, today the
share has reversed: only 14% of the world
population, in 2016, remained illiterate.
World
$304
$1,964
1960 2017
+3.3% p.a.
$192
$7,329
+6.6% p.a.
$17,037
$53,129
+2.0% p.a.
$3.696,95
$10.634,00
+1,9% p.a.
28.9%
4.8%
1950 2015
-2.7% p.a.
21.1%
1.2%
-4.9% p.a.
3.7%
0.7%
-2.9% p.a.
22.5%
4.5%
-2.8% p.a.
41
68
1960 2017
+65.8%
43
76
+75.1%
70
79
+12.7%
50
72
+42.9%
2015
1980
40.8%
72.2%
+77.0%
65.5%
96.4%
+47.2%
99.4%
99.4%
0%
67.1%
86.3%
+28.6%
Regions
10 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

8. 8
This is even more impressive when it is put in the context of
economic growth before 1820
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
“First, growth was glacially slow. Economist Angus Maddison estimates that the growth of average GDP per
capita in the world was 0.07% (seven one-hundredths of one percent) per year over the period 1700-1820 and
0.04% per year over the period 1500-1700. Even in Western Europe, which during 1500-1820 ascended to
world dominance, average growth was only 0.14% per year. (China is now growing at about 7% per year; so it
is doing in a year what Western Europe did every 50 years!) Going back even further in time, there is little
evidence that living standards had any trend growth at all before 1500.
The lack of trend growth does not mean that living standards were constant. Quite the contrary, the
preindustrial economy was characterized by year-to-year fluctuations (often driven by harvest conditions) and
by longer-term cycles, sometimes lasting hundreds of years. Economist John Maynard Keynes described the
situation this way:
‘From the earliest times of which we have record–back, say to two thousand years before Christ–down to the
beginning of the eighteenth century, there was no very great change in the standard of life of the average man
living in the civilised centres of the earth. Ups and downs certainly. Visitations of plague, famine, and war.
Golden intervals. But no progressive, violent change. Some periods perhaps 50 percent better than others–at
the utmost 100 percent better–in the four thousand years which ended (say) in A.D.1700.’”
- David N. Weil, Economic Growth
10 10

9. 9
Not to mention how generally tough life was in ancient times for a
vast number of our ancestors
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
“When the ancients thought about money, friendly swaps [bartering] were hardly
the first thing that came to mind. True, some .might have thought about their tab
at the local ale-house or, if they were a merchant or administrator, of storehouse,
account books, exotic imported delights. For most, though, what was likely to
come to mind was the selling of slaves and ransoming of prisoners, corrupt tax-
farmers and the depredations of conquering armies, mortgages and interest,
theft and extortion, revenge and punishment, and, above all, the tension between
the need for money to create families, to acquire a bridge so as to have children,
and use of that same money to destroy families – to create debts that lead to the
same wife and children being taken away. ‘Some of our daughters are brought
unto bondage already: neither is it in our power to redeem them.’ One can only
imagine what those words meant, emotionally, to a father in a patriarchal society
in which a man’s ability to protect the honor of his family was everything. Yet this
is what money meant to the majority of people for most of human history.”
- David Graeber, Debt
10 10

10. 10
“’The first transatlantic telegraph was laid in 1866. By the turn of the century, the entire world was connected by telegraph, & communication times fell from months to minutes.’ Of course, the rate of
technological change in moving goods & services & knowledge cheaply & rapidly across nations has continued unabated, even accelerating according to some observers. Thus, Wolf writes: ‘The cost of a
three-minute telephone call from New York to London in current prices dropped from about $250 in 1930 to a few cents today. In more recent years, the number of voice paths across the Atlantic
has skyrocketed from 100,000 in 1986 to more than 2 million today. The number of Internet hosts had risen from 5,000 in 1986 to more than 30 million now’.” – Thomas Friedman
There has been dramatic change across a wide range of indicators …
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10

11. 11
Categories
Population (How many
of us are there and
where are we?)
Economic Value (How
much economic profit
exists and who has it?)
Social Issues (What do
we believe and how
are we treating each
other?)
We will, however, explore just ten key global (mega)trends
Key global megatrends
• Violence has been on the Decline – according to Steven Pinker, “Today we may be living in the most peaceful era in our
species’ existence”, with the most dangerous country today (El Salvador) having a lower homicide rate than 1300 Europe. With
technological advancements including the atomic bomb, the threat of a large scale man-made catastrophe has increased
• Atheists might be a Growing Minority – despite the rapidly increasing rates of literacy around the globe and the
challenge of organized religion (including great books like “god is not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything” or “The God
Delusion”; Atheists are expected to fall as a percentage of the population from 16% to 12.5% by 2060
• Slavery is a Growing Problem – there are now more people enslaved than at any other time in history (40m people, or 1 in
every 185; and 1 in 10 in both North Korea and Eritrea), with about half in forced labor and the other in some forced sexual
relationship
• Global Warming requires Action – the Earth has been warming, and while there is mixed public perception the weight
of scientific evidence (97%) and the cost of inaction means this “wicked problem” is something that should be prioritized
• Rise of China – While China does not yet have the largest or strongest military, it is by far the largest economy when
adjusting for purchasing power parity; and will become the global hegemon in the coming decades (a return to #1 economy
which it was in 1800s)
• Poverty is Plummeting – over the last 200 years those living in extreme poverty has plummeted at an astonishing rate from
~90% to ~10%; with China going from ~90% of it’s billion plus population in extreme poverty in 1978 to less than 1% within
just 40 years
• The African Century – while the percent of the world’s population living in Africa has gone from 9% in 1950, to 17% today;
forecasts suggest it will grow to 40% by 2100
• Democracies Flailing – while most countries are now democracies, only 6% of the world’s population live in “full
democracies” and according to the Economist Intelligence Unit most countries are not democracies
• Population Growth – the worlds population has experience accelerating growth (with the population growing ~10x over the
last few centuries), however the overwhelming majority (~85%) still live in developing economies (“The Global South”)
• Urbanization – the majority of the world's population now live in cities (growing from ~3% in 1800), and by 2050 this will
be more than two-third’s as cities will essentially absorb all the population growth (~2.3 billion) in addition to rural migration
8
9
7
10
5
6
2
3
1
4
10 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

12. 12
Population has grown ~10x in the last 200 years, with more than
1/3 living in just two countries China and India
1
105 bn people have lived on earth, of whom ~5.5% are alive today
813
1700
AD
1800
AD
1900
AD
1950
AD
190
1975
AD
2000
AD
2010
AD
7,584
2,400
600
1000
AD
5000
BC
2020
AD
1 5
254
425
545
1,550
200000
BC
10000
BC
6,082
1600
AD
6,848
0
0
170
500
AD
1500
AD
2,556
213
331
Brazil
Nigeria
China
India
Pakistan
Ethiopia
United States
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Russia
206
Mexico
Japan
Philippines
Egypt
Vietnam
1,439
1,380
274
221
165
146
129
126
115
110
102
97
18.5%
17.7%
4.3%
3.5%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
Global population by country, 2020, millions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
~85% of the world live in developing economies
Developing economies
Developed economies
Global Population, 200,000 BC – 2020 AD, millions
“At the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1750, the
world’s population stood at 700 million. This figure
doubled 150 years later, reaching 1.5 billion people in
1900. The population had doubled again by 1960, this
time taking only sixty years to reaching 3 billion, despite
the effects of both World Wars. Population growth
continued to accelerate, with the population doubling
again in thirty-nine years to 6 billion by 1999, and adding
another billion in just one decade to reach today’s total
of 7 billion. The United Nations currently predicts that
there will be 9.1 billion humans on the planet by 2050.”
– David Kilcullen
% % of global population
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Before the 1st century AD the world’s
population grew at a glacial rate of 0.04%
per year. This is compared to 1.8% over
the second half of the 20th century!

13. “Indeed it is certain, it is clear to see, that the earth itself is currently over cultivated and developed than
in earlier times. Now all places are accessible, all are documented, all are full of business … Everywhere
there is a dwelling, everywhere a multitude, everywhere a government, everywhere there is life. The
greatest evidence of the large number of people: we are burdensome to the world, the resources and
scarcity adequate to us; and our needs straighten us and complaints are everywhere while already nature
does to sustain us. Truly, pestilence and hunger and war and flood must be considered as a remedy for
nations, like a pruning back of the human race becoming excessive in numbers.”
- Quintus Septimius Florens, Tertullianus (De Anima, circa A.D. 200)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
“In an endeavor to raise the proportion of the quantity of provisions to the number of consumers in any
country, our attention would naturally be first directed to the increasing of the absolute quantity of
provisions; but finding that, as fast as we did this, the number of consumers more than kept pace with it,
and that with all our exertions we were still as far as ever behind, we should be convinced that our efforts
directed only in this way would never succeed … Finding, therefore, that from the laws of nature we
could not proportion food to the population, our next attempt should naturally be to proportion the
population to the food.”
- Thomas Malthus, English cleric, scholar and economist
Despite a lot of speculation (not all correct) around population growth
throughout history, dating back thousands of years …
10 10

14. 14
… thanks in large part to increasing women’s empowerment, peak
population should occur before the end of the century
Fertility and Affluence
40,000
7
4
1
0 10,000
3
5
20,000
2
30,000 50,000
6
60,000 70,000
Hong Kong
South Africa
Ivory Coast
France
Tunisia
GDP, USD, 2012
Fertility rate, Avg. # of children per woman
Niger
Chad
Kenya
Spain
Egypt
Algeria
Libya
Netherlands
Cameroon
Hungary
Ghana
Czech Republic
Portugal
Austria
Tanzania
Italy
Namibia
Great Britain
Germany
USA
Switzerland
Fertility and Education
3 17
7
18
3
13 19
1 4 7
2 5
6
6 20
11
8 9 10 16
15
4
12
2
5
14
1
Djibouti
Level of education, Avg. # of years of school
Oman
Chad
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Albania
Sierra Leone
Turkey
Fertility rate, Avg. # of children per woman
Gambia
Bangladesh
Maldives
Morocco
United Arab
Emirates
Comoros
Indonesia
Senegal
Sudan
Yemen
Lebanon
Burkina Faso
Brunei
Pakistan
Qatar
Kyrgyzstan,
Malaysia
Algeria
Saudi Arabia,
Jordan
Palestinian
territories
Azerbaijan
Kuwait
Mali
Afghanistan
Iran
Niger
Tunisia
Egypt
Bahrain
Kazakhstan
Mauritania
Libya
Guinea
2.1 is
considered
the rate at
which a
population
replaces
itself
"The cure for poverty has a name, in fact: it's called the empowerment of women. If you give women some control over the rate at which they reproduce, if you give them
some say, take them off the animal cycle of reproduction to which nature and some doctrine—religious doctrine condemns them, and then if you'll throw in a handful of
seeds perhaps and some credit, the floor of everything in that village, not just poverty, but education, health, and optimism will increase. It doesn't matter; try it in
Bangladesh, try it in Bolivia, it works—works all the time. Name me one religion that stands for that, or ever has.“ – Christopher Hitchens
10 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

15. 15
Most of the population growth going forward is expected to occur in
Africa (as Shakira says, “This time for Africa”)
55%
61%
54%
43%
9%
13% 26%
40%
7%
9%
8% 6%
22%
12%
7% 6%
7% 5%
1%
1950
5%
2000
4%
1%
2050
1%
Asia
Europe
2100
North America
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Africa
9.8
100% =
1%
Oceania
6.1 10.9
2.5
Global Population by Region,
1950-2050, billions
By 2100, five of the world's 10 largest countries are projected to be in
Africa
Countries with largest population, millions
1950 2020 2100
China 554 China 1,439 India 1,450
India 376 India 1,380 China 1,065
U.S. 159 U.S. 331 Nigeria 733
Russia 103 Indonesia 274 U.S. 434
Japan 83 Pakistan 221 Pakistan 403
Germany 70 Brazil 213 D.R. Congo 362
Indonesia 70 Nigeria 206 Indonesia 321
Brazil 54 Bangladesh 165 Ethiopia 294
UK 51 Russia 146 Tanzania 286
Italy 47 Mexico 129 Egypt 225
While the 21st Century has been argued as the Asian century, the 22nd century will likely be the African century; going from
zero to 5 of the top 10 countries by population between 1950 and 2100 being in Africa
2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10

16. 16
Full democracy
9.0 - 10.0
8.0 - 9.0
Flawed democracy
7.0 - 8.0
6.0 - 7.0
Hybrid regime
5.0 - 6.0
4.0 - 5.0
Authoritarian regime
3.0 - 4.0
2.0 - 3.0
0 - 2.0
No data
13%
32%
22%
32%
Full
democracy
Flawed
democracy
Hybrid
regime
Authoritarian
regime
6%
43%
16%
36%
Authoritarian
regime
Full
democracy
Flawed
democracy
Hybrid
regime
Global population by type, %
Countries by regime type, %
Countries by Regime Type, 2019, n=167
3
32%
57%
14%
38%
13%
29%
30% 30%
57%
1946 1986 2016
Democratic Autocractic
Mixed
Countries by Regime
Type, 1946-2016,
n=167
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Full democracy
9.0 - 10.0
8.0 - 9.0
Flawed democracy
7.0 - 8.0
6.0 - 7.0
Hybrid regime
5.0 - 6.0
4.0 - 5.0
Authoritarian regime
3.0 - 4.0
2.0 - 3.0
0 - 2.0
No data
13%
32%
22%
32%
Full
democracy
Hybrid
regime
Flawed
democracy
Authoritarian
regime
6%
43%
16%
36%
Full
democracy
Flawed
democracy
Hybrid
regime
Authoritarian
regime
Global population by type, %
Countries by regime type, %
Countries by Regime Type, 2019, n=167
While more countries are now democracies, only ~6% of the world’s
population live in “full democracies”
3
32%
57%
14%
38%
13%
29%
30% 30%
57%
1946 1986 2016
Mixed
Democratic Autocractic
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
In 2016 the USA was downgraded from “full democratic” status 10 10
Countries by Regime
Type, 1946-2016,
n=167

17. 17
2000
90
1980
1960 2020 2030 2040
0
20
40
60
80
100
1950 2090
2070 2010 2050
10
30
50
70
25%
2%
1960
1900
1750
10%
75%
2014 2050
52%
Urbanization is on the rise
Population living in urban areas by location, %
The urban areas of the world will absorb all the population growth (~2.4 billion until 2050), in addition to
migrating rural populations. These cities are overwhelming concentrated on coastlines in developing economies
The majority of the world’s population
now live in cities
Global population living in urban areas, %
FORECAST
The majority of the world’s population live in cities, and this is
expected to grow to 75% by 2050
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
90% of the world’s population live on less than
10% of the land, and with urbanization this
skew will increase

18. “This growth won't continue indefinitely: global population is expected to level off at somewhere between 9.1 and 9.3
billion humans on the planet by about 2050. Still, that's a lot of people – about a twelve fold increase in just three
centuries.
As population has grown, urbanization has accelerated. In 1800, for example, only 3 percent of people lived in a city
with 1 million inhabitants or more; by the year 2000, 47 percent of the global population lived in cities this size. In
1950, there were only 83 cities with populations over 1 million; by 2007, there were 468. By April 2008, the world had
passed the 50 percent urbanization mark, and in December 2011, the world's most populous nation, China, announced
that it had reached a level of 51.3 percent urbanization. India, with the second-largest population on the planet, will not
only overtake China's population by 2025 but will also undergo a radical shift in settlement patterns, going from
approximately two-thirds rural in ton to two-thirds urban by 2040. Some Indian population centers will become
megacities, and "according to one vision, India's entire western seaboard could turn into a single conurbation ... within
two decades India will probably have six cities considerably bigger than New York, each with at least 10 million people.
By 2050, roughly 75 percent of the world's population will be urbanized. In more immediate terms, about 1.4 million
people across the world migrate to a city every week."
This unprecedented urbanization is concentrated in low-income areas of Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Cities are
expected to absorb all the new population growth on the planet by 2050, while simultaneously drawing in millions of
migrants from rural areas. And this growth will be "concentrated in the cities and towns of the less developed regions.
Asia, in particular, is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.7 billion, Africa by 0.88 billion, and Latin
America and the Caribbean by 0.2 billion." What this means is that population growth is becoming "an urban
phenomenon concentrated in the developing world." .”
- David Kilcullen, Out of the Mountains
10 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

19. 19
China is now the largest economy & will soon become the global
hegemon
750
464
234
175
170
82
64
55
52
51
South Korea
United Kingdom
United States
France
Russia
China
Iran
India
Saudi Arabia
Germany
#1
#3
#4
#17
#2
#14
#8
#6
#7
#13
16%
2014
1
26%
1820
32% 33%
1% 2%
7%
17% 16%
China India USA
#2
In 2013, China once again became the largest economy in the world, after being toppled by the USA in 1890, with the last century described as “The American
Century”. Over the past 500 years, there have been 16 cases of where a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power, with 12 turning into war
5
Despite the fact the annual military expenditure of the USA
equals 25% of the global spend; and remains the strongest
military force …
Annual military expenditure by country, billion $, top 10 # Global Firepower Ranking
… given it is no longer the largest economic power in the
world, China will soon become the global hegemon (or return
given it was the largest in the early 1800s)
Percentage of Global GDP for China, India and USA, %, PPP
#1 NA #1 #2 NA #1 #3 #2
# Global ranking of economy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
“Like other practicing historians, I am often
asked what the ‘lessons of history’ are. I answer
that the only lesson I have learnt from studying
the past is that there are no permanent
winners and losers.” – Ramachandra Guha

20. 20
Portugal Spain
Late 15th century
France Hapsburgs
First half of 16th century
Hapsburgs Ottoman Empire
16th and 17th centuries
Hapsburgs Sweden
First half of 17th century
Dutch Republic England
Mid- to late 17th century
France Great Britain
Late 17th to mid-18th centuries
United Kingdom France
Late 18th and early 19th centuries
France and United Kingdom Russia
Mid-19th century
France Germany
Mid-19th century
China and Russia Japan
Late 19th and early 20th centuries
United Kingdom United States
Early 20th century
United Kingdom supported by France, Russia Germany
Early 20th century
Soviet Union, France, and UK Germany
Mid-20th century
United States Japan
Mid-20th century
United States Soviet Union
1940s-1980s
United Kingdom and France Germany
1990s—present
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
There is a strong chance of this leading to war, as the
Thucydides’s Trap project has shown is often the case
Over the past 500 years, there have been 16 cases in which an ascending power challenged an establish power,
12 of these rivalries have resulted in war
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Period Ruling power Rising power Domain Result
War No war
• Global empire and trade
• Land power in Western Europe
• Land power in Europe, sea
power in Mediterranean
• Land /sea power in north Europe
• Global empire (& trade)
• Global empire (& Euro land power)
• Land/sea power in Europe
• Global empire (Central Asia)
• Land power in Europe
• Land/sea power in East Asia
• Global economic dominance
• Global sea power (Euro land power)
• Europe land/ sea power
• Sea power in Asia-Pacific region
• Global power
• Political influence in Europe

21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Over the first half of the 21st century, China’s economic rise will
continue (potentially becoming almost 3x the size of the USA)
China’s rise looks similar to the rise of
the USA a century ago
China’s GDP will continue to make up a larger share of global GDP (as
the USA continues to shrink in a relative sense)
“In the last three decades of the
nineteenth century, the United
States has risen from the ashes of its
civil war to become an economic
colossus. In 1850, the populations of
Britain and America were roughly
equal. By 1900, there were twice as
many Americans as Britons. The
American economy surpassed
Britain’s in 1870, and grew to twice
its size by 1914. In 1880, Britain has
accounted for 23 percent of global
manufacturing output. By 1914, its
market share had fallen to 13
percent as America’s rose to 32
percent” – Graham Allison
1% 2%
18%
30%
49%
76%
66%
59%
50%
22%
16% 11%
China
1950
100
1980 2050
100
USA
Rest of world
100 100
100% =
2016
“’Now it is official. In 2014 the IMF estimates the size of the U.S. economy was $17.4 trillion and the size
of China’s econmy was $17.6 trillion.’ The I went on to note that ‘as recently as 2005, China’s economy
was less than half the size of the U.S. By 2019, the IMF expects it to be 20% bigger.’” – Graham Allison

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