Presentation by Mr. Aldert de Vries, Ministry of Interior and Kingdom Relations in the Netherlands at the OECD LEED conference on "Demographic transition and ageing society - Implications for local labour markets" (Lodz, Poland), 21/-22 March 2013

1. Demographic
change in The
Netherlands
Lodz, 21 Mar 2013
Aldert de Vries
Housing and Construction
Office
Ministry of the Interior and
Kingdom Relations
9 april 2013

2. Content
• Demographic change in The Netherlands
• National and local policy responses
• Focus on economy and labour market
2 9 april 2013

3. Demographic transition in The Netherlands
• Stabilizing population
• Sharply rising age dependency ratio
• Relatively low fertility rates (1.75)
• Migration compensates for natural decline
Total population (2010=100) Old age dependency ratio
120.0 80.0
70.0
100.0
60.0
80.0
50.0
Europe
60.0 40.0 Japan
40.0 30.0 Netherlands
20.0 Poland
20.0
10.0
0.0
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
3 9 april 2013

4. Regional
differentiation
4 9 april 2013

5. 5 9 april 2013

6. Labour force
6 9 april 2013

7. Decrease of
labour force
7 9 april 2013

8. Migration patterns
8 9 april 2013

9. Population or households
9 9 april 2013

10. Ageing and decreasing labour force
10 9 april 2013

11. Impact of international migration
11 9 april 2013

12. Consequences - national
• School age
• reduction of labour force
• finance of public services and pensions
• from growth to renovation
12 9 april 2013

13. Consequences regional
• Housing (vacancies, deterioration,
devaluation)
• Services (health, education, retail,
culture, sport)
• Local economy (mismatch labour
market, closure or outmigration of
companies)
13 9 april 2013

14. Intergovernmental
program
• Objective: to maintain the
current level of liveability
• 3 “shrinkage regions””, 20
“anticipation regions”
• 3 pillars: housing/spatial
planning; services;
economy/labour market
• Awareness raising, process
facilitation, no funding
14 9 april 2013

15. Pillar 1: Housing
• Vacancy, price fall
• Remaining mortgage debt
• Downward spiral of
attractiveness
• Renovation and demolition
• Buy out private owners
• Clever reduction of new
housing scheme
15 9 april 2013

16. Pillar 2: Services
• Closure of shops, schools,
hospitals
• Mostly rural problem
• Relocation in central location
• Citizenship
16 9 april 2013

17. Demography
Pillar 3: economy and Population
dynamics
labour market Fertility
Life Expectancy
Migration
Marginalisation
Mortality
• This is focus of OECD Labour Market
Ageing
Economy
project in NL Unemployment Sector structure
Employment Ageing White
workforce economy
Social Sustainable Silver
inequalities Development economy
Retention &
Approach Innovation
attract.
Shortage of capacity
strategies
qualified Green growth
workers
Skill Ecosystem
Skills supply
Skills
utilisation
Skills
demand
Education
and training
Skills development
17 9 april 2013

18. Negative trends
• High percentage of low income, low educated and unemployed
• Low economic activity
• Low levels of innovation
• Skewed sector structure (industry)
• Culture of “inactiveness”
18 9 april 2013

19. Current and future mismatch on labour market
Groningen
Care
Education
Business services
Government
Industry
Transport and…
Trade
Construction
Finance
Hotel and catering…
Agriculture, forest,…
Other services
0 5000 10000
Not an issue Average Ageing Strongly ageing
19 9 april 2013

20. Promising responses
• Spin off universities
• Open innovation (Chemelot
campus)
• Triple helix agreements
(government, education,
business)
• Business strategies on
personnel
• Promoting choices for promising
study (“technology pact”)
20 9 april 2013

21. Pitfalls
• Overoptimistically count on
attracting newcomers
• Lack of inclusive approach (old
workers, low educated)
• Small and Medium Enterprises
• Cluster policy (chemics works,
health not)
• National policies.. Incentives for
innovation in health sector; life long
learning; social security
21 9 april 2013

22. Policy issues and recommendations
• Demographic transition is unavoidable – deal with it
• Search for economic growth models in context of
population decline.
• Regional cooperation instead of competition
• More initiatives from society, less top-down solutions from
public sector
• Shrinkage areas are the laboratories for the rest of the
country!
22 9 april 2013