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India: An Emerging Giant     Arvind Panagariya    Columbia University    September 24, 2007
GDP and Population Growth7                                                      6.365                                  4.8...
Poverty Ratio: 1951-62                70.00                60.00                                                          ...
Poverty Ratio: 1963-74                70.00                                                                               ...
Poverty ratio6050403020100     1973-74   1977-78   1983      1987-88      1993-94   1999-00
Focusing on the recent Years               GDP Growth: Business cycle effect or a shift in the growth rate?10.0 9.0       ...
GDP in current dollars ($billion): 16.8 percent Annual growth During 2003-06900800                                        ...
Merchandise exports have doubled in three years ($billion--current)120.0                                                  ...
Services exports have more than doubled in two years ($billion--current)70.0                                              ...
Exports (goods+services) to GDP ratio25.0                                                            20.520.0             ...
19              0.0                    5.0                          10.0                                     15.0         ...
Remittances have coninued to rise rapidly                                   ($billion--current)3025201510 5 0     1990- 19...
Software exports have doubled in two years ($billion--current)25.0                                                        ...
Phone Lines in Million250.00200.00150.00100.00 50.00  0.00         1991            July 31 2005    July 31 2006   28-Feb-07
1.801.601.401.201.00                                                                   Passenger vehicles (million)       ...
Innovation china india_sep.07_a_panagariya
Innovation china india_sep.07_a_panagariya
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Innovation china india_sep.07_a_panagariya

  1. 1. India: An Emerging Giant Arvind Panagariya Columbia University September 24, 2007
  2. 2. GDP and Population Growth7 6.365 4.8 4.14 GDP Growth 3.2 Population Growth3 2.3 2 2.1 1.9210 1951-65 1965-81 1981-88 1988-06
  3. 3. Poverty Ratio: 1951-62 70.00 60.00 -0.002x y = 52.167e 50.00Poverty Ratio 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 Year
  4. 4. Poverty Ratio: 1963-74 70.00 0.0134x 60.00 y = 50.562e 50.00Poverty Ratio 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1972-73 1973-74 Year
  5. 5. Poverty ratio6050403020100 1973-74 1977-78 1983 1987-88 1993-94 1999-00
  6. 6. Focusing on the recent Years GDP Growth: Business cycle effect or a shift in the growth rate?10.0 9.0 8.6 8.0 7.1 7.0 6.0 5.2 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1990-93 1993-97 1997-03 2003-07
  7. 7. GDP in current dollars ($billion): 16.8 percent Annual growth During 2003-06900800 806700 696600 601500 506 461 478 452400300200100 0 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
  8. 8. Merchandise exports have doubled in three years ($billion--current)120.0 102.7100.0 79.2 80.0 63.8 60.0 52.7 36.8 40.0 18.1 20.0 0.0 1990-91 1999-00 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 P
  9. 9. Services exports have more than doubled in two years ($billion--current)70.0 60.660.050.0 46.040.030.0 26.920.0 16.310.0 4.6 0.0 1990-91 2000-01 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
  10. 10. Exports (goods+services) to GDP ratio25.0 20.520.0 15.615.0 11.610.0 7.2 5.0 0.0 1990-91 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06
  11. 11. 19 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 90 1 9 -9 1 91 1 9 -9 2 92 1 9 -9 3 93 1 9 -9 4 94 1 9 -9 5 95 1 9 -9 6 96 1 9 -9 7 97 1 9 -9 8 98 1 9 -9 9 99 2 0 -0 0 00 2 0 -0 1 01 2 0 -0 2 02 2 0 -0 3 03 2 0 -0 4 02 0 4 -0 05 5 -0 6P TOTAL foreign investment has picked up though not DFI ($billion) DFI Total
  12. 12. Remittances have coninued to rise rapidly ($billion--current)3025201510 5 0 1990- 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 91 92 93 94 95 96 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
  13. 13. Software exports have doubled in two years ($billion--current)25.0 23.620.0 17.215.0 12.810.0 6.2 5.0 0.8 0.0 1995-96 2000-01 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
  14. 14. Phone Lines in Million250.00200.00150.00100.00 50.00 0.00 1991 July 31 2005 July 31 2006 28-Feb-07
  15. 15. 1.801.601.401.201.00 Passenger vehicles (million) Passenger cars (million)0.800.600.400.200.00 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

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