Dr. Scott Rozelle of the Rural Education Action Project at Stanford University demonstrates that rigorous research and strong data can influence public policy in China at Give2Asia's 10th Anniversary Forum on Oct. 2, 2012.
Turning an impact on 1000 into 1000000 give2asia oct2_c
1. “Multiplying Impact:
How to Change the Lives of Millions
by Investing in Thousands”
Scott Rozelle
Stanford University (Professor/Senior Fellow)
Director, Rural Education Action Project
(REAP)
&
Colleagues in the Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Northwest University, and Others
2. Hourly Wages in the 1990s
30
27.52
24.91
25 23.65
21.76
Hourly Wages (in USD)
20
15 13.56
10
5 4.09
2.63
0.5 0.8
0
China US Japan EU Korea Australia Mexico Brazil
China in late 1990s Park and Cai, 2008
4. Percent of Students Going to High School:
South Korea in the 1970s/1980s
100%
Percentage of Students in High School
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Large Cities Rural Korea
in Korea
Kuan, 2011
5. Mexico’s Story: Hourly Wages from 1975
30
to 1990
27.52
24.91
25 23.65
21.76
Hourly Wages (in USD)
20
15 13.56
10
5 4.01 4.09
0.5 0.75
0
China US Japan EU Korea Australia Mexico Brazil
Mexico in 1975 5
6. As would be expected, low-wage
factories in Mexico shut down and
moved elsewhere in the world
7. A Key to Development: Education
South Korea in the 1970s/1980s Mexico in the 1980s
100% 100%
Percentage of Students in High School
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Large Cities Rural Korea Large Cities Rural
in Korea in Mexico Mexico
8. Mexico in Crisis
Travel Warning Foreign Direct Investment
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Bureau of Consular Affairs, Mexico in Mexico
30
Cartels & gangs
25
20
Violence
15
05
06
07
08
09
10
Unemployment
20
20
20
20
20
20
8
9. Is it inevitable that Developing Countries
that are growing fast and achieve Middle
Income status always will continue to grow
and become rich, industrialized nations?
• In fact, history is littered with a lot of
wannabe OECD members:
– Argentina … one of the four richest countries in
the world in the early 20th century … collapse and
stagnation after WWII
– Uruguay / Iraq / Venezuela (in the 1960s & 70s)
– MORE RECENTLY:
• Or … as we are seeing before our eyes: Mexico
10. Annual Real Hourly
Unskilled Wage in
China (1978 dollars)
≈ $2.00 /
hour in
2000
2010
1500
1000
500
0
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
≈ 50 ¢ / hour in 1978
Park and Cai, 2008
16. Question: “Will these boys be able to do the jobs that
need to be done in the future economy?”
None of these students have ever touched a computer or surfed the web
17. So: China’s real challenge is
coming … and there are
fundamental questions:
• Can China transform itself like:
Taiwan / South Korea / Ireland / New
Zealand
• Or è will China become a: Mexico /
or / Argentina
18. China’s human capital problem is most
severe in poor rural areas.
≈ 35% of school-aged
children in poor rural
areas cities
(> 50 million children
in poor rural areas, other
ages 6 to 15)
rural
18
19. The High School Education Gap
China in 2005
100%
83%
80%
Percent of
students 60%
that go to 40%
High 40%
School
20%
0%
Large Rural
Cities in China
China 19
20. The High School Education Gap
China in 2005 Mexico in the 1980s
100% 100%
83% 82%
80% 80%
Percent of
students 60% 60%
that go to 40% 42%
High 40% 40%
School
20% 20%
0% 0%
Large Rural Large Rural
Cities in China Cities in Mexico
China Mexico 20
21. Is China planting the seeds for a
Mexico-like crisis in the future?
30
25
20
15
05
06
07
08
09
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
22. Why are there these gaps?
• Why don’t rural students stay in school?
• There are many reasons … but, perhaps one
of the most fundamental is:
poor health
poor nutrition
If children are sick or malnourished,
how can they learn?
23. Students with
anemia
Students (39%)
without
anemia
(61%)
REAP study (Luo et 4000)students in
REAP study of al., 2010 of 4000
rural Shaanxi Province
students in rural Shaanxi Province
Luo, et al., 2010
24. Report to Center for Disease Control:
“There are Still High Rates of Anemia”
è
Response:
“It must be those guys from Shaanxi … they
have never had good diets …”
25. We went on to test nearly 40,000
additional children across China….
National Institute of Health &
Pfizer Corp.
26. In fact, anemia is all over China
Total
Total 33.7
Shaanxi—2008 (Dataset 1) 37.5
Shanxi—2009a (Dataset 2) 31.6
Gansu—2010 (Dataset 3) 31.2
Qinghai—2009 (Dataset 4) 51.1
Ningxia—2009 (Dataset 5) 25.4
Sichuan—2010 (Dataset 6) 24.8
Guizhou—2010 (Dataset 7) 33.1
Luo, R., X. Wang, C. Liu, et al. (2011) “Alarmingly High Anemia Prevalence
in Western China.” Southeast Asian Journal of Tropical Medicine and
Public Health Vol. 42 No. 5
27. Poor areas of China
Children
with anemia
(≈ 33%)
Children with
out
≈ 20 million school aged children
are estimated to have anemia …
28. Which of these kids are sick? With a disease like iron-deficiency
anemia, it is impossible to tell … there are no outward symptoms
… this in part makes it truly a neglected disease
29. But, these two students were anemic … we know (from later
work) that their IQ had dropped by 10 to 20 points because of
this illness … They attended school 10 less days per year
30. Testing >25,000 children in Gansu and
Shaanxi Provinces
myopic
normal
vision
3680 (≈15%) were myopic (or nearsighted).
31. What happens when
students cannot see …
• The chalk board?
• Teachers’ illustrations?
• The work of fellow students?
32. Testing > 25,000 children in Gansu and
Shaanxi Provinces
myopic
normal
vision
3680 (≈15%) were myopic (or nearsighted).
Only 142 had eyeglasses
33. Academic performance suffers
Chinese Math English Average
Nearsighted students -0.174*** -0.109* -0.179*** -0.182**
(0.055) (0.056) (0.061) (0.059)
Other covariates yes yes yes yes
Treatment Township (τ) -0.053 -0.070 0.078 -0.018
(0.069) (0.071) (0.077) (0.075)
Poor Vision×Treatment 0.024 -0.087 -0.065 -0.050
Township (β) (0.047) (0.067) (0.046) (0.053)
As you can see, holding all things constant, children that can not see well,
perform worse! They should be 80+, but, they are <75 points.
34. THE SCOURGE WITHIN:
INTESTINAL WORMS IN RURAL CHINA
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Center for Disease Control, Shanghai
Stanford University (with support of Asia Health Care Initiative funding) +
Rural Education Action Program’s Advisory Board
35. SURVEY SITES
Total 1701 children
• 8 students/village (8-10 years old/grades 3-4)
• 8 children/village (3-5 years old, pre-school)
36.
37.
38. Incidence of Intestinal Worms,
Guizhou Province, 2010
34% 40%
with with
worms worms
Without Without
3 to 5 year olds 8 to 10 year olds
Zhang et al., 2011
42. Response by Ministries
• Mostly: silence
• Why?
– MOE: “What does health and nutrition have to
do with education?”
– MOH: “We know this / tell us what to do about
it …”
43. Response by the NGO community
• Lots of: Action
Building Schools … Giving scholarships …
Migrant community centers … Teacher
training … Improved cook stoves … Giving
out Embrace sleeping bags … Empowering
women … Raising awareness of minorities
… and more …
44. But no matter how many:
• Dell’s … providing 100s of computers …
• Starbuck’s … training 1,000s of teachers …
• CDYF’s … building 10,000s of schools …
• Zigen’s … teaching 100,000s of migrant children …
• Ford Foundation’s … giving 1,000,000s in scholarships
…
• Give2Asia’s … organize / facilitate >$10,000,000 in
grants and program aid!
45. There are still:
• 50,000,000 children more without computers …
• 5,000,000 migrant children in inferior schools without
health care …
• 500,000 teachers that lack training …
• 50,000 schools with no libraries or IT programs or
livable dorms
• UNCOUNTABLE NEEDS … for all of the donors in
one Give2Asia or 100 Give2Asias
46. There are still:
• 50,000,000 children more without computers …
• 5,000,000 migrant children in inferior schools without
health care …
• 500,000 teachers that lack training …
• 50,000 schools with no libraries or IT programs or
livable dorms
• UNCOUNTABLE NEEDS … for all of the donors in
one Give2Asia or 100 Give2Asias
47. The basic truth (we believe) is:
• The ultimate goal of philanthropy in China
today … “should be” to show something
works on 1000 kids … show how to do it
more effectively … get the government to
buy into the program … and let them upscale
… and have an impact on 1,000,000 kids …
or more!
Despite what you hear about corruption today, the basic fact is true:
The government has fiscal resources … The government is looking for
good projects that will further China’s development … Government
officials benefit personally from being identified with SUCCESS …
48. The need for “Action Research”
or Social Experimentation with
Chinese Characteristics!
• Seeing is believing …
• Show the effect of treatment on China …
• Experiment with different ways of treating …
compare efficacy / cost …
è To gain policy traction …
49. The Rural Education Action Project is a
Research Organization/NGO/Government
Organization/Policy Action partnership
At Stanford University Collaborators in China
50. Our Vision
We are committed to finding
solutions to the help bridge the
gap … cost effective …
scalable … efficient solutions
53. To understand the barriers keeping the rural poor from closing
the gap and learn what can be done
REAP works in two ways
1. REAP designs and implements new program interventions and
conducts the evaluations
2. REAP partners with NGOs and government agencies who are
trying to implement projects
– REAP advises
– They carry out
– REAP evaluates
We call this “action research”
59. REAP’s Three “Action Platforms”
Health, Nutrition and Education
Technology and Keeping Kids in School
Human Capital
60. So what is the key to “action research”?
Two things:
1. The rigorous / but simple way that we
demonstrate IMPACT …
2. Our commitment to scaling up … through
engagement in policy …
These are also the two sources of
engagement with our other set of
partners … the government!!
63. The NGO wanted to
work in schools in
Shaanxi … REAP
“figured out” they
needed to “work” in 30
schools (to be able to
be certain that their
program could show
an effect) … So we pick
60 schools of the type
hey wanted …
64. The NGO wanted to
work in schools in
Shaanxi … REAP
“figured out” they
needed to “work” in 30 *
schools (to be able to
be certain that their
program could show
an effect) … So we pick
60 schools of the type
they wanted …
65. Before the project was launched by
the NGO …
REAP went to 60 schools …
And collected baseline information
(again: BEFORE the NGO ever
visited the schools)
68. Randomly Choose the Treatment Schools and
Control Schools
But, do it over
and over until:
69. Pre-balanced at the baseline between
30 Treatment (T) Schools &
30 Control (C) Schools
45
40
35
30
25 122.3 122.1 38.7 39.8 73.1 72.3
20
15 T C T C T C
10
5
0
Hb levels Anemia Test
Rates Scores
71. Prebalancing ensures that schools in treatment groups and
schools in control groups are statistically identical prior to
the intervention (like identical twins)
Treated Control
schools schools
Therefore, after the intervention, we can interpret any
differences to the outcome variables (Hb levels, anemia, test
scores) to be due to the intervention
72. The Intervention
School Type A
(30 schools)
“Vitamin / Day”
Give students one over
the counter multi-
vitamin with iron per
day (5 mg of iron) …
from November 2008
to May 2009
(≈4 US cents/day)
77. Impact of vitamin on students:
Hemoglobin Points Anemia Rates (%)
Math Test Scores (std. dev.)
78. Is one result enough?
• It works in Shaanxi …
… but does it work in Ningxia?
• It works in an NGO project …
… but can it work “inside the system?”
• What is the most effective way (time / cost)?
82. Impact of vitamin supplementation on students
Hemoglobin Points Anemia Rates (%)
Math Test Scores (std. dev.)
Win
Win
Win
83. And policy making circles …
Official
policy
brief
(think
of
President
Formal
no)fica)on
that
there
has
been
a
“policy
Obama’s
desk
and
the
desks
of
his
cabinet
direc)ve”
direc)ng
MoEdu
and
MoHealth
to
members)
move
our
informa)on
into
the
policy
discussion
84. Policy Action—Central Government
In 2009 è direct MoE to begin a plan to put
nutrition into the school system …
Wen Jiabao: Premiere
Liu Yandong: Standing Committee Li Keqiang: Vice
member (education) Premiere
86. Challenges of Working with (Local/
regional) Policy Makers for
Implementation
An Example:
• We say “give vitamins” / local policy
makers give eggs
This has happened twice:
Shaanxi in 2009-10
Ningxia in 2010-11
88. Does one egg per day, improve test scores / attendance?
One Egg Per Day No intervention.
25 elementary schools in Gansu 25 elementary schools in Gansu
97. Impact of Eggs on Hb Levels …
Standard deviations
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Control One Egg/Day Chewable Vitamin
No impact …
as expected!
98. Impact of Eggs on Test Scores …
Standard deviations
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Control One Egg/Day Chewable Vitamin
No impact on test
scores… either!
99. Conclusion for egg study:
• NO: it is NOT that eggs are bad for you …
– In fact: kids liked it … teachers liked it … parents liked
– The “satisfaction” of stakeholders in “egg schools”
were higher than in “vitamin schools”
• But, the problem is that eggs do not address one of
the fundamental problems of rural children in the
poor areas of Northwest China: iron-deficiency
anemia
100. While we are discovering what works
and what does not work …
The State Council moves …
101. Oct. 30, 2011
China’s new nutrition program:
-- 16 billion yuan [$US 2 billion
dollars] to put nutrition into schools
in rural China
[or 20 billion US dollars over 10
years]
[equals about 3 yuan / student / day …]
102. An Example:
Treating 40,000 students through
philanthropy è
Turned into nutritious lunches for
20,000,000 million
[Many groups helped in the “action
research” …. CDRF / CDC / and:
REAP]
103. There are many low cost, effective
solutions beyond reducing anemia
• Vitamin / day è 0.2 yuan per day
• Deworming è 1-2 yuan per year
• Eyeglasses è 80 yuan per year
(< 0.10 yuan per day)
• Early Childhood Education
• Computer room + Software + Teacher training
– One PC Tablet per Child
• Conditional cash transfers for junior high
students
104. What if China can not overcome the
[BIG] human capital challenge?
• If human capital does not rise, will China stop
growing?
• What happens if there are two distinct classes …
haves and have nots … and China’s growth slows?
• What happens if there are:
100 million unemployed?
70 million unmarried?
There will only be two choices for the unemployed in China (they will NOT be
able to cross the border into a neighboring rich country) … they will either seek
employment in the informal economy OR seek refuge in organized crime [this is
NOT new in Chinese history]
105. Is China planting the seeds for a
Mexico-like crisis in the future?
30
25
20
15
05
06
07
08
09
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
106. We believe that the optimistic path is
still possible because:
“There is exactly enough time
starting now”
106
107. One other keys the PEOPLE:
the Collaborations
è Action Research …
– NGOs
– Corporation CSR programs
– Individual donors
+
– Action Research Organization/Partners
è Policy Collaboration …
… with collaborations at all levels of government
112. Real objective è the kids!
• Not to change policy … for policy sakes …
• Not to run a good program … for the sake
of running a good program …
• But, to impact the lives of the students in
China … and their families …
for them … for their children … for China
