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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA)

       KE NAKO
 IT’S NOW OR NEVER

    proposed by Matthieu Delouvrier

           February 2013
Megatrend: it is the dawn of SSA

                             Working-age population worldwide

                     7 000 000

                     6 000 000

                     5 000 000                                                                                                                      36%
                                                                                  11%
       (Thousands)




                     4 000 000
                                                                                  33%
                     3 000 000                                                                                                                      28%


                                                                                  18%
                     2 000 000
                                    7%                                                                                                              15%
                                   23%
                                                                                  21%
                     1 000 000     14%                                                                                                              9%
                                   22%
                                                                                  17%                                                               12%
                                   34%
                             0
                                                                    2000
                                 1950
                                        1960
                                               1970
                                                      1980
                                                             1990


                                                                           2010
                                                                                   2020
                                                                                          2030
                                                                                                   2040
                                                                                                          2050
                                                                                                                 2060
                                                                                                                        2070
                                                                                                                               2080
                                                                                                                                      2090
                                                                                                                                             2100
                              More developed regions                       China                 India            ROW                 SSA


                 Source: United Nations



                                                                                                                                                          2
SSA GDP is in top 20

                                    Some references

                                       (USD trillion in 2012)


                GDP current                                      GDP current PPP
          France                2.6                             India         4.7
          Brazil                2.4                             Brazil        2.5
          India                 1.9                             France        2.2
          Spain                 1.3                             SSA           2.1
          SSA                   1.3                             Mexico        1.7
          Mexico                1.2                             Korea         1.6
          Korea                 1.1                             Spain         1.4
          Indonesia             0.9                             Indonesia     1.2
          Turkey                0.8                             Turkey        1.1


         Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012




                                                                                    3
What do we see today?




                        4
SSA countries show the highest growth

                      Ten fastest growing countries*

                                         (Annual average GDP growth rate in %)


                   2001-2010                                                   2011-2015 (f)
          Angola                        11.3                            Iraq               11.0
          China                         10.5                            Ghana                  9.4
          Myanmar                       10.3                            China                  8.5
          Nigeria                         8.9                           Mozambique             7.8
          Chad                            8.6                           Guinea                 7.6
          Ethiopia                        8.3                           Rwanda                 7.6
          Kazakhstan                      8.3                           Niger                  7.4
          Mozambique                      8.0                           Zambia                 7.4
          Cambodia                        8.0                           DR Congo               7.2
          Rwanda                          7.8                           Cambodia               7.0
         • Countries with population above 10 million
         Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012




                                                                                                     5
The trend is very supportive

                        GDP growth of SSA countries

                                       (Annual GDP growth rate in %)
                                                                                     Forecast
         8
         7
         6
         5
         4
         3
         2
         1
         0
         -1
         -2
              1980      1985        1990      1995        2000         2005   2010      2015

         Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012




                                                                                                6
Big industries are paving the way

               Sales of SSA biggest companies (US$ bn)

                 600

                 500                                            CAGR

                 400
                                                                7.3%
                 300

                 200

                 100                                            5.7%
                    0
                                           2007                                      2011

                                          South Africa              SSA (excluding South Africa)

                  Source: The Africa Report - Top 500 African companies




 . South Africa companies remain                                          . FTSE ASEA Pan Africa index
 largely dominant.                                                        increased by around 20% in 2012.
 . Oil and mining: 33.2% of sales.

                                                                                                             7
Technology (mobile) is breaking through

                     Mobile: the door to modernity




                       Source: MobileMarketingWatch



 . Africa has twice as many mobile                    . Mobile phone is decreasing
 phones as the USA.                                   costs, improving efficiency.
 . Mpesa (Kenya) has become a                         . Nigeria is distributing subsidized
 global leader in mobile banking and                  inputs to 1.5 million farmers
 is selling its technology to India.                  through cell phones.
                                                                                             8
Entrepreneurs are building success stories

               Mr. Dangote ranked 76th world richest*




                   *Source: Forbes



                                      . February 2013: signature of a
 . Current activities:
                                      strategic agreement with General
 cement, sugar, flour, salt….
                                      Electric to collaborate on
 . Company expected to be listed on   power, transportation and oil &
 the London Stock Exchange in 2013.   gas.
                                                                         9
Entrepreneurs are dedicated to the continent

                Mr. Mo Ibrahim created his Foundation




 . Mr. Mo Ibrahim made a               . The Mo Ibrahim Foundation
 remarkable success in mobile          was created in 2006 to
 telecommunications with Celtel        stimulate good governance and
 which was sold in 2005.               leadership in Africa.

                                                                       10
The culture industry is not left over

                  NOLLYWOOD: the star of Afrotainment




                 The second largest film industry in the world

. Second largest employer in Nigeria      . 300 producers
. 56% of movies in local language         . Above 1,000 films per year
. Average DVD sale: 25-50,000 copies      . Average cost: US$ 20,000 per film


                                                                                11
The middle class is driving growth

                 Middle class size in Africa (million)

                  350                                              326
                  300
                                                           +60%
                  250
                                                    204
                  200
                                   157
                  150

                  100

                   50

                    0
                                  1990              2000           2010
                 Source: African Development Bank




. Middle class expected to double in                       . Passenger cars import in SSA
20 years.                                                  increased by 25%+ in Q4 2011
. Consumer spending (US$ 1tr) similar                      (YOY) and 250%+ in Rwanda.
to India, higher than Russia.                              . Nestlé invested US$ 1 bn in 2011.
                                                                                                 12
The overall security has improved

                                         Conflicts are regressing

                            1980-89                                 2000-09




            Source: Uppsala University




. The number of deaths by violence                     . Successful coups in Africa were
has decreased due to the reduction of                  down from 20 during 1980-89 to 7
conflicts and their intensity following                during 2000-09.
the democratization of the continent.

                                                                                           13
Growth is not inclusive enough

                                      Extreme poverty headcount ratio (%)




                                                                                  Sub-Saharan Africa

                                                                                  East Asia & the Pacific

                                                                                  Required Millenium
                                                                                  Development Goal
                                                                                  progress



Source: World Bank 2012




. The ILO* estimates that between                         . Unemployment hits the youth.
2000 and 2007, the working age                            . Most countries are not on track to
population grew by 96 million but                         achieve the Millennium Development
only 63 million jobs were created.                        Goals by 2015.
* International Labour Organization
                                                                                                     14
Political and civil rights are not progressing

                            Classification of countries



             2012        18%                43%                   39%




             2002        17%                47%                    36%


                                  Free       Partly free         Not free

                    Source: Freedom House




 . During the last ten years, political                    . On the other side, many elections
 and civil freedom has not improved                        held in 2011 showed that peaceful
 significantly.                                            political alternation is possible.


                                                                                                 15
What are the drivers of change?




                                  16
Macro policies have produced results

              Foreign exchange reserves / External debt

              70%
              60%
              50%
              40%
              30%
              20%
              10%
               0%
                                       1990                            2011
                           Foreign exchange reserves / External debt   External debt / GDP

             Source: IMF, World Bank data



. Debt reduction strategies together                         . All recent sovereign bond issues are
with external trade oriented policies                        oversubscribed.
resulted in a dramatic improvement of                        . 9 sovereign wealth funds created. 10
SSA countries savings and solvency.                          to be created soon.

                                                                                                 17
Foreign financing to SSA has surged

                Destination of funds: public vs private




                                                                Source: IMF




. Foreign flows: x10 in 10 years.        . Funds going to the private sector:
. Remittances: over US$ 30 billion per   average return on investment is the
year.                                    highest in the world.
                                                                                18
Intra-African foreign direct investment is emerging

                             Number of projects




. The share of intra-African investment   . Leading investors come from South
has more than doubled in the last 8       Africa, Nigeria and Kenya.
years at the expense of developed
markets.
                                                                                19
There is a dramatic shift in trading partners

                                     Destination of SSA exports

               Excluding oil exporting countries             Oil exporting countries




 Source: IMF


. Current switch from Europe to BICs.               . Diversification of partners has been
Trade, not aid. Resources driven.                   an engine for growth: reduction of
. Intra-African trade still low despite             export volatility, better terms of
efforts of economic communities.                    trade, scale economies.
                                                                                             20
Investment in infrastructure has been crucial

              The future new air terminal in Lomé, Togo




. Infrastructure contributed to 50% of   . Improving infrastructure halfway to
SSA past growth.                         regional best practice (Mauritius)
. Current annual spendings: US$ 45 bn.   would increase GDP by 4.4%*.

                                         * World Economic Forum 2013

                                                                                 21
Africa has a buried treasure

               A vast potential in underground resources


                          Oil             10%

                          Gold            40%
                                                           Share of world reserves

                          Chromium        80%
                          &               to
                          Platinum        90%                     Source: Mc Kinsey Global Institute, June 2010




                                                . «African subsurface per ground km² is
. Africa is not richly endowed with
                                                estimated at around $25,000 compared
major minerals like copper, lead, zinc.
                                                to $125,000 in developed
. Africa’s mining sector accounts for           countries»*, showing that Africa is
just 10% of the world production.               underexplored.

                                                * Collier and Venables, 2008
                                                                                                              22
Africa can help feed the world

                               SSA: 45% of the potential available land
                                                                                                                         Global surface
                                                                                                                        in millions of ha
                         438                      326          89           456                           736               2,047
    Sub Saharan Africa




                                                                                      Rest of the world
                                  Latin America

                         46%



                                                        Mena



                                                                    Asia
                         54%



    Source: FAO, Fischer and Shah 2010                                                                     Potential arable land
                                                                                                           Cultivated land


. Productivity can be boosted: no                                          . Africa is ripe for a green revolution
country in Africa is now achieving                                         and the first stage of this revolution is
more than 30% of the potential yield                                       the land rush we are witnessing now.
on currently cultivated areas (World Bank).
                                                                                                                                     23
Labor productivity has been unleashed

                                        Evolution of productivity




         1 Used working age population (15-64) as a proxy for labor force
         Source: Conference Board World Economy Database; McKinsey Global Institute



. For the first time since the                                                . This gives scope for increased per
eighties, productivity of labor                                               capita revenues.
increased, and at a higher pace than
labor force.
                                                                                                                     24
Demography supports general productivity

                                                           Dependency ratio
           Non working population (<15;64<) for 100 people at working age (15-64)
           100

            90
                                                                                                                                 Brazil
            80
                                                                                                                                 Western Europe
            70                                                                                                                   China
                                                                                                                                 India
            60
                                                                                                                                 Sub-Saharan Africa
            50

            40

            30
                 1950
                        1960
                               1970
                                      1980
                                             1990
                                                    2000
                                                           2010
                                                                  2020
                                                                         2030
                                                                                2040
                                                                                       2050
                                                                                              2060
                                                                                                     2070
                                                                                                            2080
                                                                                                                   2090
                                                                                                                          2100
           Source: United Nations



. Today, SSA has the worst dependency                                                         . However, it is constantly declining
ratio. Twice as much as China.                                                                since 1985, giving a boost to Africa’s
                                                                                              competitiveness.
                                                                                                                                                      25
Urbanization is stimulating growth

                   The development of cities in Africa




. The advantages of the city: it is more   . Labor is available.
cost-efficient to manage
transport, food distribution and most      . If urbanization triggers higher
services.                                  productivity, it is a big challenge.

                                                                                  26
Efforts are made for better education

                     Secondary school gross enrolment rates




             Source: United Nations, Renaissance




. SSA at the level of Mexico, Turkey in            . But there are still concerns about
1975.                                              quality: facilities, teachers.


                                                                                          27
Better health fosters productivity

               Fighting against malaria: a prominent example

              In Ghana, the mining company AngloGold Ashanti invested
              around US$ 7 million in a comprehensive program against
              malaria with the following results:
                                                                 2005    2009

             Cases in AngloGold’s hospital (number per month)   6,603    1,146

                    Drug expenditures (US$ per month)           55,000   9,800

                    Work days lost (number per month)           6,983    282




. In Africa, Malaria mortality rate was             . Experience shows that investment
reduced by 33% since 2000.                          in water, sanitation and health yields
. Life expectancy at birth in SSA: 49.5             between 4$ and 60$ per 1$ invested.
in 1990; 49.7 in 2000; 54.2 in 2010.
                                                                                             28
Trade integration is slowly taking off

                          Total bilateral African trade




                                                                                    Source: Ernst & Young’s 2012
                                                                                    Africa attractiveness survey.
                                                                                    Total respondents: 505

                   2002    2003   2004   2005   2006    2007   2008   2009   2010


. Africa has integrated with the rest of               . Nevertheless, intra African trade has
the world, mostly selling                              grown at the same pace as all African
commodities, faster than with itself.                  trade at 17% a year for the last 10 years.
                                                                                                                    29
Perception is still a big obstacle

                Perception of Africa relative to other regions

                                              Africa is less attractive than…                Africa is more attractive than…
                         Asia
              North America
                 Middle East
             Western Europe
               Latin America
              Eastern Europe
             Central America
         Former Soviet States

                                   -50       -40        -30       -20       -10         0         10        20        30           40
                                           Respondents with no presence in Africa           Respondents wth a presence in Africa

        Source: Ernst & Young’s 2012 Africa attractiveness survey. Total respondents: 505



                                                                             . It is the contrary for investors having
. For investors with no presence in                                          knowledge of Africa.
Africa, the continent is still viewed as
relatively unattractive against all                                          . Major factors: political
regions.                                                                     instability, corruption, difficulty of doing
                                                                             business.
                                                                                                                                        30
What to do next?




                   31
So many things to do! - The governance challenge

                                               Education          Food
  Millenium Development Goals
                                        HIV
    Employment                                    Housing                Corruption
                          Social protection
                                                           Public management
        Justice
                             Gender equality
                                                                     Security
Capital availibility                              Fiscal policy
                            Competitiveness
            Health care                                Regional integration

 Infrastructure                    Natural resources           Entrepreneurship



                   SSA needs faster, more inclusive growth

                                                                                      32
Implement a new public management method

              SSA’s absorption capacity is far too low



   SSA needs to implement                      Foreign/local funds and
countless projects to boost its                partners are increasingly
        development                                    available


           Despite this very favorable context, the result has been
            disappointing: too many projects take too long to
            implement when they do not fail.
           Governments need to implement a new management
            method focused on the rapid execution of development
            projects with the creation of highly specialized teams:


                        Project Delivery Squads

                                                                           33
Innovate in infrastructure finance

                 Infrastructure density in SSA is weak
                       (as a percentage of the density of other low income countries)
                100%
                 90%
                 80%
                 70%
                 60%
                 50%
                 40%
                 30%
                 20%                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: Economic Commission
                 10%                                                                                                                                                                                          for Africa, African Union 2012
                  0%

                                                                    Télécom main-line
                          Paved-road density


                                               Total road density




                                                                                                                             Power generation
                                                                                        Mobile density




                                                                                                                                                                       Improved water
                                                                                                         Internet density




                                                                                                                                                Electricity coverage




                                                                                                                                                                                        Improved sanitation
                                                                                                                                capacity
                                                                         density




. Another US$ 40 billion per year need                                                                                      . Principle: bottleneck
to be mobilized. Possible sources:                                                                                          hunting, defragmenting the space
China, investment funds, local…                                                                                             (create regional spaces), cost cutting.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               34
Care about cities, strengthen local governments

                        Urban rural population are growing in SSA
                        2,000,000
                        1,800,000
                        1,600,000
                        1,400,000                            Urban = 36% of total
            Thousands




                        1,200,000
                        1,000,000
                          800,000
                          600,000
                          400,000
                          200,000
                               —
                                    1960




                                    2025
                                    1950
                                    1955

                                    1965
                                    1970
                                    1975
                                    1980
                                    1985
                                    1990
                                    1995
                                    2000
                                    2005
                                    2010
                                    2015
                                    2020

                                    2030
                                    2035
                                    2040
                                    2045
                                    2050
                                          Rural population                 Urban population
            Source: United Nations data


                                                                    . Urban planning, land use
. Urban population growth: 3.7%.
                                                                    regulation, property rights… are
. People need                                                       urgently needed.
housing, water, power, food, jobs…

                                    Revolutions come from cities
                                                                                                       35
Africa is a continent,
        not a country


A Country Assessment Framework
      to measure diversity




                                 36
The macro environment
                                                                                                                          Insufficient                                                                                      Sufficient
                                                                                                                                                        Level of growth
                                                                                                  80
                                                                                                                                                                                          Cape Verde
                                                                                                                                                                                    Botswana
                                                                                                                1                                                                                                                           4
Quality of economic and social policies




                                                                                                  75
                                          (Source: 2012 Mo Ibrahim index of African governance)




                                                                                                                                                                       Seychelles
                                                                                                  70                                                         South Africa
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Namibia




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                High
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Ghana
                                                                                                  65

                                                                                                                                                                                           Lesotho
                                                                                                  60                                                    Benin      São Tomé and Príncipe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Tanzania




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Level of inclusion
                                                                                                                                                                                              Zambia
                                                                                                                                              Senegal
                                                                                                                                                                  Burkina Faso
                                                                                                  55                      Mali                     Malawi                     Uganda            Mozambique
                                                                                                                                                                   Gabon       Kenya                    Rwanda                           Average
                                                                                                              Swaziland
                                                                                                  50                                                                       Gambia                  Niger
                                                                                                                                                                Comoros
                                                                                                                                 Madagascar                                       Ethiopia                        Liberia
                                                                                                  45                                                            Togo       Cameroon
                                                                                                                                                   Burundi                 Angola
                                                                                                                                                        Guinea        Congo
                                                                                                                                                                                               Nigeria
                                                                                                  40                               Guinea-Bissau                                                                 Equatorial Guinea
                                                                                                                                                                 Côte d'Ivoire




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Low
                                                                                                  35            2                                                 Central African Republic                             Zimbabwe             3
                                                                                                                                                          Chad                      DR Congo           Eritrea
                                                                                                  30
                                                                                                       -5.0                       -2.5                      0.0                         2.5                           5.0                   7.5

                                                                                                                GDP growth (average 2011, 2012, 2013) minus current urban population increase
                                                                                                                                                                   (Source: World Bank data)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              37
The business environment

                                                                                                  Low risk                                                                                      High risk
                                                                                                                                                        Resource curse
                                                                               20




                                                                                                                                                                 Average
                                                                                         1                                                                                                                         4
                                                                               40                                                    South Africa
Ease of Doing Business (world ranking)




                                                                                                              Rwanda
                                                                                                                                                              Ghana
                                                                               60




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   High
                                                                                                                               Botswana
                                         (Source: World Bank, 2012 figures)




                                                                               80
                                                                                      Namibia
                                                                                                                                                                                       Zambia
                                                                              100




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          private activity
                                                                                         Kenya




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Incentive to
                                                                              120                      Swaziland
                                                                                                                           Uganda
                                                                                                                                      Ethiopia
                                                                                                                                                   Tanzania                                Nigeria             Average
                                                                                             Lesotho         Madagascar
                                                                              140                                                   Sierra Leone
                                                                                                                                                   Mozambique Liberia
                                                                                                           Gambia          Togo               Burkina Faso       Mali
                                                                              160                                               Malawi
                                                                                                                                                              Burundi                     Angola
                                                                                                   Senegal                                           Cameroon
                                                                                                                                       Côte d'Ivoire                                                   Gabon




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Low
                                                                                                    Benin                   Zimbabwe                                                DR Congo
                                                                              180                                  Niger
                                                                                         2                                 Guinea-Bissau    Central African Republic       Guinea                                  3
                                                                                                                                                                                                Chad    Congo
                                                                              200
                                                                                    1%                                                                    10 %                                                         100 %
                                                                                    Bubble: size of GDP                      Weight of natural resources in the GDP (Log)
                                                                                                                                             (Source: World Bank Data, 2010)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  38
« The risk of not going to Africa is to
    find that it is too late to get there ».
        Lord Boateng, former British High Commissioner in South Africa
                             and director of Aegis




Matthieu Delouvrier
Swensee
md@swensee.com


                                                                         39
References

. Africa’s natural resources in a global context, Raf Custers & Ken            . It’s time for Africa, Africa attractiveness survey, Ernst & Young, March
Matthysen, IPIS, August 2009.                                                  2011.
. Land grab or development opportunity?, Lorenzo Cotula, Sonja                 . Economic Report on Africa 2011, Economic Commission for Africa, African
Vermeulen, Rebeca Leonard and James Keeley, iied, FAO, IFAD, 2009.             Union, March 2011.
. Sustainability and security of the global food supply                        . Africa Progress Report 2011, Africa Progress Panel, April 2011.
chain, Rabobank, 2010.
                                                                               . Sub-Saharan Africa: Recovery and New Risks, Regional Economic
. The World Health Report, World Health Organization, 2010.                    Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2011.
. China, Africa and the International Aid Architecture, Deborah                . Africa’s pulse, World Bank, April 2011.
Bräutigam, African Development Bank Group, April 2010.
                                                                               . The Middle of the Pyramid: Dynamics of the Middle Class in Africa, African
. Rising Global Interest in Farmland, World Bank, September 2010.              Development Bank, April 2011.
. Sub-Saharan Africa: Resilience and Risks, Regional Economic                  . Foreign aid, trade and development, The strategic presence of
Outlook, International Monetary Fund, October 2010.                            China, Japan and Korea in sub-Saharan Africa, Dr. Johan Lagerkvist, The
                                                                               Swedish Institute of International Affairs, April 2011.
. African acceleration, Société Générale, October 2010.
                                                                               . Agribusiness for Africa’s prosperity, UNIDO, May 2011.
. Top Banques, African Business, October 2010.
                                                                               . Transformation through Infrastructure, Issues and concept Note, World
. The struggle underground, The Africa Report, October 2010.
                                                                               Bank, June 2011.
. Anticipated trends in the use of global land and water resources, F.
                                                                               . African Agriculture: From Meeting Needs To Creating Wealth, Mo Ibrahim
Nachtergaele, J. Bruinsma, J. Valbo-Jorgensen, and D. Bartley, FAO, 2010.
                                                                               Foundation, 2011.
. China in Africa, A Macroeconomic Perspective, Benedicte Vibe
                                                                               . Private equity and investment in Africa, Yingni Lu and John
Christensen, December 2010.
                                                                               Battersby, SouthAfrica.info, July 2011.
. Africa, The new frontier for growth, Accenture, 2010.
                                                                               . Africa, The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion, Renaissance
. Africa’s Infrastructure, A Time for Transformation, Vivien Foster and        Capital, July 2011.
Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank, Agence Française de
                                                                               . Africa in 50 Years’ Time, The Road Towards Inclusive Growth, African
Développement, 2010.
                                                                               Development Bank, September 2011.
. Africa’s impressive growth, The Economist, January 2011.
                                                                               . Rising Global Interest in Farmland, World Bank, September 2011.
. Fulfilling Africa’s Potential, Goldman Sachs Global Economics, January
                                                                               . Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining the Expansion, Regional Economic
2011.
                                                                               Outlook, International Monetary Fund, October 2011.
. The Mining sector, an opportunity for Growth in Africa?, Proparco, January
                                                                               . Growth and poverty reduction in Africa in the last two decades, Andy
2011.
                                                                               McKay, University of Sussex, December 2011.
. Africa‘s Future and the World Bank‘s Support to It, World Bank, February
                                                                               . Africa’s population, Miracle or Malthus, The Economist, December 2011.
2011.

                                                                                                                                                            40
References

. World Investment Report, UNCTAD, 2011.                                        . African Economic Outlook 2012, OECD, 2012.
. Classement des Banques, Jeune Afrique, 2011.                                  . Global Development Finance 2012, World Bank, 2012.
. Yes Africa can, World Bank, 2011.                                             . Inclusive Wealth Report 2012, UNEP, UNU-IHDP, 2012.
. The Africa Competitiveness Report 2011, Africa Commission, World              . Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development
Economic Forum, 2011.                                                           Goals, MDG Report 2012, Economic Commission for Africa, Africa
                                                                                Union, African Development Bank, UNDP, 2012.
. Will the lion roar in 2012?, African Business, January 2012.
                                                                                . Africa Human Development Report 2012, UNDP, 2012.
. Growing with Africa’s consumers, Bain & Company, February 2012.
                                                                                . World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2012.
. Defragmenting Africa, Marcelo Giugale, Huffington Post, February 2012.
                                                                                . World Investment Report, UNCTAD, 2012.
. BRICs’ Philosophies for Development Financing and Their Implications for
LICs, Nkunde Mwase and Yongzheng Yang, International Monetary Fund              . Is Africa’s Recent Economic Growth Sustainable?, Ifri October 2012
Working Paper, March 2012.
                                                                                . Global Trends 2030, Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence
. Economic Report on Africa 2012, Economic Commission for Africa, African       Council, December 2012.
Union, March 2012.
. Building Bridges, Africa attractiveness survey, Ernst & Young, March 2012.
. Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty, Regional
Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2012.
. How can Africa compete with China, Marcelo Giugale, Huffington
Post, April 2012.
. Africa Losing Billions of Dollars Due to Trade Barriers, Mohammed
Suleman, allafrica.com, April, 2012.
. The New Business of Africa: Markets and People transforming the
continent, Fair Observer, May 2012.
. Jobs, Justice and Equity, Africa Progress Panel, June 2012.
. Waking up to the maths of malaria, Ed Cropley, AlertNet, June 2012.
. Sub-Saharan Africa Region, Global Economic Prospects, World
Bank, June 2012.
. Assessing Africa’s Policies and Institutions, CPIA Africa, World Bank, June
2012.
. The Millennium Development Goals Report, United Nations, July 2012.


                                                                                                                                                       41

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2013 02 sub saharan africa economy

  • 1. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA) KE NAKO IT’S NOW OR NEVER proposed by Matthieu Delouvrier February 2013
  • 2. Megatrend: it is the dawn of SSA Working-age population worldwide 7 000 000 6 000 000 5 000 000 36% 11% (Thousands) 4 000 000 33% 3 000 000 28% 18% 2 000 000 7% 15% 23% 21% 1 000 000 14% 9% 22% 17% 12% 34% 0 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 More developed regions China India ROW SSA Source: United Nations 2
  • 3. SSA GDP is in top 20 Some references (USD trillion in 2012) GDP current GDP current PPP France 2.6 India 4.7 Brazil 2.4 Brazil 2.5 India 1.9 France 2.2 Spain 1.3 SSA 2.1 SSA 1.3 Mexico 1.7 Mexico 1.2 Korea 1.6 Korea 1.1 Spain 1.4 Indonesia 0.9 Indonesia 1.2 Turkey 0.8 Turkey 1.1 Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012 3
  • 4. What do we see today? 4
  • 5. SSA countries show the highest growth Ten fastest growing countries* (Annual average GDP growth rate in %) 2001-2010 2011-2015 (f) Angola 11.3 Iraq 11.0 China 10.5 Ghana 9.4 Myanmar 10.3 China 8.5 Nigeria 8.9 Mozambique 7.8 Chad 8.6 Guinea 7.6 Ethiopia 8.3 Rwanda 7.6 Kazakhstan 8.3 Niger 7.4 Mozambique 8.0 Zambia 7.4 Cambodia 8.0 DR Congo 7.2 Rwanda 7.8 Cambodia 7.0 • Countries with population above 10 million Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012 5
  • 6. The trend is very supportive GDP growth of SSA countries (Annual GDP growth rate in %) Forecast 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: IMF WEO Oct 2012 6
  • 7. Big industries are paving the way Sales of SSA biggest companies (US$ bn) 600 500 CAGR 400 7.3% 300 200 100 5.7% 0 2007 2011 South Africa SSA (excluding South Africa) Source: The Africa Report - Top 500 African companies . South Africa companies remain . FTSE ASEA Pan Africa index largely dominant. increased by around 20% in 2012. . Oil and mining: 33.2% of sales. 7
  • 8. Technology (mobile) is breaking through Mobile: the door to modernity Source: MobileMarketingWatch . Africa has twice as many mobile . Mobile phone is decreasing phones as the USA. costs, improving efficiency. . Mpesa (Kenya) has become a . Nigeria is distributing subsidized global leader in mobile banking and inputs to 1.5 million farmers is selling its technology to India. through cell phones. 8
  • 9. Entrepreneurs are building success stories Mr. Dangote ranked 76th world richest* *Source: Forbes . February 2013: signature of a . Current activities: strategic agreement with General cement, sugar, flour, salt…. Electric to collaborate on . Company expected to be listed on power, transportation and oil & the London Stock Exchange in 2013. gas. 9
  • 10. Entrepreneurs are dedicated to the continent Mr. Mo Ibrahim created his Foundation . Mr. Mo Ibrahim made a . The Mo Ibrahim Foundation remarkable success in mobile was created in 2006 to telecommunications with Celtel stimulate good governance and which was sold in 2005. leadership in Africa. 10
  • 11. The culture industry is not left over NOLLYWOOD: the star of Afrotainment The second largest film industry in the world . Second largest employer in Nigeria . 300 producers . 56% of movies in local language . Above 1,000 films per year . Average DVD sale: 25-50,000 copies . Average cost: US$ 20,000 per film 11
  • 12. The middle class is driving growth Middle class size in Africa (million) 350 326 300 +60% 250 204 200 157 150 100 50 0 1990 2000 2010 Source: African Development Bank . Middle class expected to double in . Passenger cars import in SSA 20 years. increased by 25%+ in Q4 2011 . Consumer spending (US$ 1tr) similar (YOY) and 250%+ in Rwanda. to India, higher than Russia. . Nestlé invested US$ 1 bn in 2011. 12
  • 13. The overall security has improved Conflicts are regressing 1980-89 2000-09 Source: Uppsala University . The number of deaths by violence . Successful coups in Africa were has decreased due to the reduction of down from 20 during 1980-89 to 7 conflicts and their intensity following during 2000-09. the democratization of the continent. 13
  • 14. Growth is not inclusive enough Extreme poverty headcount ratio (%) Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & the Pacific Required Millenium Development Goal progress Source: World Bank 2012 . The ILO* estimates that between . Unemployment hits the youth. 2000 and 2007, the working age . Most countries are not on track to population grew by 96 million but achieve the Millennium Development only 63 million jobs were created. Goals by 2015. * International Labour Organization 14
  • 15. Political and civil rights are not progressing Classification of countries 2012 18% 43% 39% 2002 17% 47% 36% Free Partly free Not free Source: Freedom House . During the last ten years, political . On the other side, many elections and civil freedom has not improved held in 2011 showed that peaceful significantly. political alternation is possible. 15
  • 16. What are the drivers of change? 16
  • 17. Macro policies have produced results Foreign exchange reserves / External debt 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 2011 Foreign exchange reserves / External debt External debt / GDP Source: IMF, World Bank data . Debt reduction strategies together . All recent sovereign bond issues are with external trade oriented policies oversubscribed. resulted in a dramatic improvement of . 9 sovereign wealth funds created. 10 SSA countries savings and solvency. to be created soon. 17
  • 18. Foreign financing to SSA has surged Destination of funds: public vs private Source: IMF . Foreign flows: x10 in 10 years. . Funds going to the private sector: . Remittances: over US$ 30 billion per average return on investment is the year. highest in the world. 18
  • 19. Intra-African foreign direct investment is emerging Number of projects . The share of intra-African investment . Leading investors come from South has more than doubled in the last 8 Africa, Nigeria and Kenya. years at the expense of developed markets. 19
  • 20. There is a dramatic shift in trading partners Destination of SSA exports Excluding oil exporting countries Oil exporting countries Source: IMF . Current switch from Europe to BICs. . Diversification of partners has been Trade, not aid. Resources driven. an engine for growth: reduction of . Intra-African trade still low despite export volatility, better terms of efforts of economic communities. trade, scale economies. 20
  • 21. Investment in infrastructure has been crucial The future new air terminal in Lomé, Togo . Infrastructure contributed to 50% of . Improving infrastructure halfway to SSA past growth. regional best practice (Mauritius) . Current annual spendings: US$ 45 bn. would increase GDP by 4.4%*. * World Economic Forum 2013 21
  • 22. Africa has a buried treasure A vast potential in underground resources Oil 10% Gold 40% Share of world reserves Chromium 80% & to Platinum 90% Source: Mc Kinsey Global Institute, June 2010 . «African subsurface per ground km² is . Africa is not richly endowed with estimated at around $25,000 compared major minerals like copper, lead, zinc. to $125,000 in developed . Africa’s mining sector accounts for countries»*, showing that Africa is just 10% of the world production. underexplored. * Collier and Venables, 2008 22
  • 23. Africa can help feed the world SSA: 45% of the potential available land Global surface in millions of ha 438 326 89 456 736 2,047 Sub Saharan Africa Rest of the world Latin America 46% Mena Asia 54% Source: FAO, Fischer and Shah 2010 Potential arable land Cultivated land . Productivity can be boosted: no . Africa is ripe for a green revolution country in Africa is now achieving and the first stage of this revolution is more than 30% of the potential yield the land rush we are witnessing now. on currently cultivated areas (World Bank). 23
  • 24. Labor productivity has been unleashed Evolution of productivity 1 Used working age population (15-64) as a proxy for labor force Source: Conference Board World Economy Database; McKinsey Global Institute . For the first time since the . This gives scope for increased per eighties, productivity of labor capita revenues. increased, and at a higher pace than labor force. 24
  • 25. Demography supports general productivity Dependency ratio Non working population (<15;64<) for 100 people at working age (15-64) 100 90 Brazil 80 Western Europe 70 China India 60 Sub-Saharan Africa 50 40 30 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Source: United Nations . Today, SSA has the worst dependency . However, it is constantly declining ratio. Twice as much as China. since 1985, giving a boost to Africa’s competitiveness. 25
  • 26. Urbanization is stimulating growth The development of cities in Africa . The advantages of the city: it is more . Labor is available. cost-efficient to manage transport, food distribution and most . If urbanization triggers higher services. productivity, it is a big challenge. 26
  • 27. Efforts are made for better education Secondary school gross enrolment rates Source: United Nations, Renaissance . SSA at the level of Mexico, Turkey in . But there are still concerns about 1975. quality: facilities, teachers. 27
  • 28. Better health fosters productivity Fighting against malaria: a prominent example In Ghana, the mining company AngloGold Ashanti invested around US$ 7 million in a comprehensive program against malaria with the following results: 2005 2009 Cases in AngloGold’s hospital (number per month) 6,603 1,146 Drug expenditures (US$ per month) 55,000 9,800 Work days lost (number per month) 6,983 282 . In Africa, Malaria mortality rate was . Experience shows that investment reduced by 33% since 2000. in water, sanitation and health yields . Life expectancy at birth in SSA: 49.5 between 4$ and 60$ per 1$ invested. in 1990; 49.7 in 2000; 54.2 in 2010. 28
  • 29. Trade integration is slowly taking off Total bilateral African trade Source: Ernst & Young’s 2012 Africa attractiveness survey. Total respondents: 505 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 . Africa has integrated with the rest of . Nevertheless, intra African trade has the world, mostly selling grown at the same pace as all African commodities, faster than with itself. trade at 17% a year for the last 10 years. 29
  • 30. Perception is still a big obstacle Perception of Africa relative to other regions Africa is less attractive than… Africa is more attractive than… Asia North America Middle East Western Europe Latin America Eastern Europe Central America Former Soviet States -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Respondents with no presence in Africa Respondents wth a presence in Africa Source: Ernst & Young’s 2012 Africa attractiveness survey. Total respondents: 505 . It is the contrary for investors having . For investors with no presence in knowledge of Africa. Africa, the continent is still viewed as relatively unattractive against all . Major factors: political regions. instability, corruption, difficulty of doing business. 30
  • 31. What to do next? 31
  • 32. So many things to do! - The governance challenge Education Food Millenium Development Goals HIV Employment Housing Corruption Social protection Public management Justice Gender equality Security Capital availibility Fiscal policy Competitiveness Health care Regional integration Infrastructure Natural resources Entrepreneurship SSA needs faster, more inclusive growth 32
  • 33. Implement a new public management method SSA’s absorption capacity is far too low SSA needs to implement Foreign/local funds and countless projects to boost its partners are increasingly development available  Despite this very favorable context, the result has been disappointing: too many projects take too long to implement when they do not fail.  Governments need to implement a new management method focused on the rapid execution of development projects with the creation of highly specialized teams: Project Delivery Squads 33
  • 34. Innovate in infrastructure finance Infrastructure density in SSA is weak (as a percentage of the density of other low income countries) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Source: Economic Commission 10% for Africa, African Union 2012 0% Télécom main-line Paved-road density Total road density Power generation Mobile density Improved water Internet density Electricity coverage Improved sanitation capacity density . Another US$ 40 billion per year need . Principle: bottleneck to be mobilized. Possible sources: hunting, defragmenting the space China, investment funds, local… (create regional spaces), cost cutting. 34
  • 35. Care about cities, strengthen local governments Urban rural population are growing in SSA 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 Urban = 36% of total Thousands 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 — 1960 2025 1950 1955 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Rural population Urban population Source: United Nations data . Urban planning, land use . Urban population growth: 3.7%. regulation, property rights… are . People need urgently needed. housing, water, power, food, jobs… Revolutions come from cities 35
  • 36. Africa is a continent, not a country A Country Assessment Framework to measure diversity 36
  • 37. The macro environment Insufficient Sufficient Level of growth 80 Cape Verde Botswana 1 4 Quality of economic and social policies 75 (Source: 2012 Mo Ibrahim index of African governance) Seychelles 70 South Africa Namibia High Ghana 65 Lesotho 60 Benin São Tomé and Príncipe Tanzania Level of inclusion Zambia Senegal Burkina Faso 55 Mali Malawi Uganda Mozambique Gabon Kenya Rwanda Average Swaziland 50 Gambia Niger Comoros Madagascar Ethiopia Liberia 45 Togo Cameroon Burundi Angola Guinea Congo Nigeria 40 Guinea-Bissau Equatorial Guinea Côte d'Ivoire Low 35 2 Central African Republic Zimbabwe 3 Chad DR Congo Eritrea 30 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 GDP growth (average 2011, 2012, 2013) minus current urban population increase (Source: World Bank data) 37
  • 38. The business environment Low risk High risk Resource curse 20 Average 1 4 40 South Africa Ease of Doing Business (world ranking) Rwanda Ghana 60 High Botswana (Source: World Bank, 2012 figures) 80 Namibia Zambia 100 private activity Kenya Incentive to 120 Swaziland Uganda Ethiopia Tanzania Nigeria Average Lesotho Madagascar 140 Sierra Leone Mozambique Liberia Gambia Togo Burkina Faso Mali 160 Malawi Burundi Angola Senegal Cameroon Côte d'Ivoire Gabon Low Benin Zimbabwe DR Congo 180 Niger 2 Guinea-Bissau Central African Republic Guinea 3 Chad Congo 200 1% 10 % 100 % Bubble: size of GDP Weight of natural resources in the GDP (Log) (Source: World Bank Data, 2010) 38
  • 39. « The risk of not going to Africa is to find that it is too late to get there ». Lord Boateng, former British High Commissioner in South Africa and director of Aegis Matthieu Delouvrier Swensee md@swensee.com 39
  • 40. References . Africa’s natural resources in a global context, Raf Custers & Ken . It’s time for Africa, Africa attractiveness survey, Ernst & Young, March Matthysen, IPIS, August 2009. 2011. . Land grab or development opportunity?, Lorenzo Cotula, Sonja . Economic Report on Africa 2011, Economic Commission for Africa, African Vermeulen, Rebeca Leonard and James Keeley, iied, FAO, IFAD, 2009. Union, March 2011. . Sustainability and security of the global food supply . Africa Progress Report 2011, Africa Progress Panel, April 2011. chain, Rabobank, 2010. . Sub-Saharan Africa: Recovery and New Risks, Regional Economic . The World Health Report, World Health Organization, 2010. Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2011. . China, Africa and the International Aid Architecture, Deborah . Africa’s pulse, World Bank, April 2011. Bräutigam, African Development Bank Group, April 2010. . The Middle of the Pyramid: Dynamics of the Middle Class in Africa, African . Rising Global Interest in Farmland, World Bank, September 2010. Development Bank, April 2011. . Sub-Saharan Africa: Resilience and Risks, Regional Economic . Foreign aid, trade and development, The strategic presence of Outlook, International Monetary Fund, October 2010. China, Japan and Korea in sub-Saharan Africa, Dr. Johan Lagerkvist, The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, April 2011. . African acceleration, Société Générale, October 2010. . Agribusiness for Africa’s prosperity, UNIDO, May 2011. . Top Banques, African Business, October 2010. . Transformation through Infrastructure, Issues and concept Note, World . The struggle underground, The Africa Report, October 2010. Bank, June 2011. . Anticipated trends in the use of global land and water resources, F. . African Agriculture: From Meeting Needs To Creating Wealth, Mo Ibrahim Nachtergaele, J. Bruinsma, J. Valbo-Jorgensen, and D. Bartley, FAO, 2010. Foundation, 2011. . China in Africa, A Macroeconomic Perspective, Benedicte Vibe . Private equity and investment in Africa, Yingni Lu and John Christensen, December 2010. Battersby, SouthAfrica.info, July 2011. . Africa, The new frontier for growth, Accenture, 2010. . Africa, The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion, Renaissance . Africa’s Infrastructure, A Time for Transformation, Vivien Foster and Capital, July 2011. Cecilia Briceño-Garmendia, World Bank, Agence Française de . Africa in 50 Years’ Time, The Road Towards Inclusive Growth, African Développement, 2010. Development Bank, September 2011. . Africa’s impressive growth, The Economist, January 2011. . Rising Global Interest in Farmland, World Bank, September 2011. . Fulfilling Africa’s Potential, Goldman Sachs Global Economics, January . Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining the Expansion, Regional Economic 2011. Outlook, International Monetary Fund, October 2011. . The Mining sector, an opportunity for Growth in Africa?, Proparco, January . Growth and poverty reduction in Africa in the last two decades, Andy 2011. McKay, University of Sussex, December 2011. . Africa‘s Future and the World Bank‘s Support to It, World Bank, February . Africa’s population, Miracle or Malthus, The Economist, December 2011. 2011. 40
  • 41. References . World Investment Report, UNCTAD, 2011. . African Economic Outlook 2012, OECD, 2012. . Classement des Banques, Jeune Afrique, 2011. . Global Development Finance 2012, World Bank, 2012. . Yes Africa can, World Bank, 2011. . Inclusive Wealth Report 2012, UNEP, UNU-IHDP, 2012. . The Africa Competitiveness Report 2011, Africa Commission, World . Assessing Progress in Africa toward the Millennium Development Economic Forum, 2011. Goals, MDG Report 2012, Economic Commission for Africa, Africa Union, African Development Bank, UNDP, 2012. . Will the lion roar in 2012?, African Business, January 2012. . Africa Human Development Report 2012, UNDP, 2012. . Growing with Africa’s consumers, Bain & Company, February 2012. . World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2012. . Defragmenting Africa, Marcelo Giugale, Huffington Post, February 2012. . World Investment Report, UNCTAD, 2012. . BRICs’ Philosophies for Development Financing and Their Implications for LICs, Nkunde Mwase and Yongzheng Yang, International Monetary Fund . Is Africa’s Recent Economic Growth Sustainable?, Ifri October 2012 Working Paper, March 2012. . Global Trends 2030, Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence . Economic Report on Africa 2012, Economic Commission for Africa, African Council, December 2012. Union, March 2012. . Building Bridges, Africa attractiveness survey, Ernst & Young, March 2012. . Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining Growth amid Global Uncertainty, Regional Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2012. . How can Africa compete with China, Marcelo Giugale, Huffington Post, April 2012. . Africa Losing Billions of Dollars Due to Trade Barriers, Mohammed Suleman, allafrica.com, April, 2012. . The New Business of Africa: Markets and People transforming the continent, Fair Observer, May 2012. . Jobs, Justice and Equity, Africa Progress Panel, June 2012. . Waking up to the maths of malaria, Ed Cropley, AlertNet, June 2012. . Sub-Saharan Africa Region, Global Economic Prospects, World Bank, June 2012. . Assessing Africa’s Policies and Institutions, CPIA Africa, World Bank, June 2012. . The Millennium Development Goals Report, United Nations, July 2012. 41