The document summarizes the opportunity for ARM server processors and identifies three waves of ARM processors entering the server market. The first wave introduced ARMv8 server chips but had low performance. The second wave improved performance but not significantly. The third wave beginning in 2017 is expected to truly challenge Intel's Xeon E5 chips by offering 32-core processors using 16/14nm technology with performance on par with Intel's 14nm chips. For ARM servers to be widely adopted they will need to match the performance and features of Intel's Xeon E5 chips.

1. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
ARM Server Processor Opportunity
Linley Gwennap, Principal Analyst
April 14, 2016

2. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
About Linley Gwennap
• Founder, principal analyst, The Linley Group
• Leading vendor of technical reports on processor, mobile,
and communications semiconductors and IP
• Editor-in-chief of Microprocessor Report
• Author of recent articles on ARM, Broadcom, Intel, Marvell,
MediaTek, NetSpeed, Qualcomm, et al
• Author of “A Guide to Mobile Processors” and “Mobile
Semi Market Share Forecast”
• Former CPU designer at Hewlett-Packard
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3. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
Agenda
• Server market opportunity
• Three ARM waves for servers
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4. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
Clouds Open Arms to New Architectures
• Cloud service providers reaching out for non x86 processors
• Intel has >97% server processor market share
• CSPs want a multi-vendor environment
• Not possible for one vendor to cover all application spaces
• Intel offer high memory bandwidth only with high CPU performance
• Many applications benefit from hardware accelerators
• Intel can address these problems with custom products, but only for large
customers
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One Solution Does Not Fit All Applications

5. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
New Cloud Technologies Change Processors
• Microservices break down traditional scale-up applications
• Better for smaller CPU cores
• Hyperconvergence merges compute and networking in one box
• Networking is well suited to smaller CPU cores, hardware acceleration
• Reduced demand for multi-socket systems
• SoC processors reduce size and power without coherency overhead
• New workloads change balance between CPU, memory, I/O
• In-memory databases need large memory but moderate compute
• Cold storage needs high bandwidth but little compute
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6. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
Opportunities for ARM in Servers
• Market needs 64-bit processors—ARMv8 now available
• Xeon E5 defines mainstream server market
• Little to no volume in microservers
• Xeon E7 is too expensive for all but a few applications
• ARMv8 software ecosystem continues to build
• Commercial support for open-source stack (Linux, etc)
• CSPs porting their in-house software using GCC
• APIs available for networking functions (SDN and NFV)
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7. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
First ARMv8 Wave (2014-15)
• AppliedMicro X-Gene 1 entered production in 2Q14
• First ARMv8 server processor
• First merchant ARMv8 processor product of any kind
• 8-core X-Gene 1 used 40nm technology to accelerate time to market
• AMD A1100 (“Seattle”) ready for production in 2015
• 28nm processor using 8 stock Cortex-A57 CPUs
• First wave products had low performance, targeted microservers
• Intel offered 8-core Atom (“Silvermont”) with better perf/watt
• ARMv8 server software infrastructure wasn’t ready for deployment
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8. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
Second ARMv8 Wave (late 2015-2016)
• AppliedMicro X-Gene 2 entered production in 2H15
• Move to 28nm improves perf/watt, but not significantly
• Quad DRAM channels offer more memory bandwidth, capacity than Atom
• Cavium ThunderX entered production in 2H15
• Massive 48-core design matches per-socket throughput of low-end Xeon E5
• Low per-core performance enhanced by hardware accelerators
• Second wave offers advantages over Intel for specific workloads
• X-Gene 2 good for scale out memory-intensive applications (e.g. in-memory DB)
• ThunderX good for embedded applications, esp. storage and networking
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9. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
Third ARMv8 Wave (2017-2018)
• AppliedMicro X-Gene 3 targets production in 2H17
• 32 cores, 3.0GHz processor will challenge Xeon E5
• Qualcomm likely to reach production in 2017
• No product details yet, but we expect 32 cores using smartphone CPU
• Cavium moving ThunderX to FinFET, production likely in 2017
• Broadcom Vulcan on hold after Avago deal
• Third wave targets mainstream Xeon E5 customers
• Uses 16/14nm FinFET technology on a par with Intel 14nm “Skylake”
• Brawnier cores in X-Gene 3 compete for Web-scale computing
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10. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
Requirements for ARM Server Processor Adoption
• Match performance of Xeon E5
• Xeon E5 is the most commonly deployed server processor—need to replace
• Match per-core and per-socket performance to serve scale-out applications
• Match or exceed Xeon E5 power efficiency (perf/watt)
• Requires strong microarchitecture and be within one process node of Intel
• Excellent cache performance and multicore scaling
• Proven reliability, availability, and serviceability (RAS) feature set
• Exceed Xeon E5 in one or more areas (e.g., memory, accelerators)
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11. © 2016 The Linley Group March 15, 2016
Conclusions
• Server OEMs want more choices in processor suppliers
• ARMv8 software infrastructure is maturing in the data center
• Early ARM server processors deliver advantages on certain workloads
• Hindered by low core count and/or lagging process technology versus Intel
• Third wave of ARM server processors offers more choices
• High performance, high core counts for scale-out workloads
• Hardware accelerators for specialized workloads
• Server processors are no longer a single-vendor market
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