Overview of climate science, hazards and risks, and how Hudson Valley communities are adapting.

1. 1
How + why climate is changing
in the Hudson Valley
Libby Zemaitis
M.S. Climate Science & Policy, M.B.A. Sustainable Business
Climate Outreach Specialist, Hudson River Estuary Program / Cornell WRI
Bard College
February 23, 2016

2. 2
Roadmap
• Hudson River Estuary Program
• Basics of climate science
• Climate hazards, risks and projections
• Recap

3. 3
Hudson River Estuary Program
Six core benefits
• Clean water
• Resilient communities
• Vital estuary ecosystem
• Fish, wildlife & habitats
• Natural scenery
• Education & access
Ladder of stewardship:
Engage, inform, empower

4. 44
Basics of climate
science

5. 5
Climate is the longer-term average of our
weather
• “You dress for the weather and build a
house for the climate”
• Variability and shifts over time
• The only constant is change
• Trend of warming atmosphere leading to
more extreme water and temperature
distribution at surface

6. 6
Our climate changes according to major
earth system dynamics
• Milankovitch cycles
• Atmospheric composition
• Carbon Cycle
• Feedbacks
• Ocean-atmosphere interactions / water cycle

7. 7
The Milankovitch Cycles determine amount
and distribution of incoming solar radiation

8. 8
Our carbon cycle acts as Earth’s thermostat
New carbon entering our atmosphere is proportional to
the quantity of fossil fuels we burn

9. 9
The composition of our atmosphere
determines our ability to reflect and absorb
solar radiation
The Greenhouse Effect is a basic and measurable physical phenomenon, like gravity

10. 10
Recent trend: carbon dioxide increasing
in our atmosphere
Atmospheric carbon is 400 ppm for the
first time in a million years

11. 11
Atmospheric carbon concentration linked with
surface temperature
We have detailed records of our atmosphere from
ice cores going back 800,000 years

12. 12
Warmer temperatures change our ocean-
atmosphere interactions and the distribution of
our water cycle

13. 13
Feedbacks can help to amplify or
dissipate climate trends

14. 1414
Climate change in
New York

15. 15
New York climate models
• Downscaled to regional level
from global models
• Models have become very
robust
• Annual measurements track
with predictions, so far

16. 16
Climate hazards
Trends in our climate
• Heat
waves
• Short-term
drought
• Flooding
• increasing
temperatures
• rising sea level
• changing
precipitation
patterns
Climate risks
Impacts to humans

17. 17
New York is experiencing
three primary climate
hazards
• increasing temperatures
• rising sea level
• changing precipitation patterns

18. 18
Our average annual temperature has risen
faster than national and global averages
Since 1970:
• Global annual average temperature up 1.4°F
• US annual average temperature up 1.8°F
• New York annual average temperature up nearly 2°F
• New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F
*2015 the hottest year on record
*last month the hottest January on record

19. 19
y = 0.0262x - 1.346
R² = 0.3749
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AnnualMeanTemperature(F)
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Annual mean temperature in
Poughkeepsie has been increasing
Local evidence

20. 20
New York could become similar
to South Carolina today by the
end of the century

21. 21
NY Harbor has experienced 15” of
sea level rise since 1850

22. 22
Because the Hudson is an
estuary it experiences tides
and sea level rise

23. 23
NY has experienced 71% increase in
intense precipitation
71% Increase in rain falling in heavy downpours
between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009

24. 24
Local evidence
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AnnualPrecipitation(inches)
Year
Annual rainfall in Poughkeepsie has
become more variable

25. 25
Precipitation is expected to
continue becoming more variable
and extreme in New York

26. 26
Climate change will affect New Yorkers
in three major ways
• Heat waves
• Short-term drought
• Flooding

27. 27
Heat waves are
becoming more
frequent and severe

28. 28
We are experiencing more short-term
drought in the summer
• Increasing temperatures
• Reduced snowpack
• Increased evaporation

29. 29
Flooding is
occurring more
frequently and
severely

30. 30
You can explore sea
level rise along the
Hudson using Scenic
Hudson’s mapper
http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper

31. 3131
What can humans
do to respond to
climate change?

32. 32
We can mitigate and adapt productively to
our changing climate
Climate mitigation = reducing the
magnitude of climate change
Climate adaptation = reducing our
vulnerability to climate change

33. 33

34. 3434
Hudson Riverfront
communities are
becoming leaders

35. 35
Hudson Riverfront communities got hit hard
by Hurricanes Irene and Sandy

36. 36
Flood Resilience Task Forces tackle their flood
risk and recommend adaptation strategies

37. 37
Communities, business owners and residents
adapting to flooding

38. 38
Climate Adaptive Design
• A collaboration with Cornell
University Department of
Landscape Architecture
• Using design to inspire

39. 39
New: SLR Projections Adopted by NYS

40. 40
Recap
• Our climate system is complex and changing
• Global warming presents varying regional & local climate
change impacts
• Our climate is changing more rapidly in NY
• Communities can adapt to and thrive under climate change by
becoming resilient
• Hudson Riverfront communities are stepping up as leaders in
flood adaptation

41. 4141
Section Sub Title
Thank You
Libby Zemaitis
Climate Outreach Specialist, Hudson River Estuary Program
Libby.zemaitis@dec.ny.gov | (845) 256-3153
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