Improving SEM Results through Multi-Channel Conversion Attribution - Kenshoo Webinar

Improving SEM Results through
Multi-Channel Conversion Attribution
November 2012

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Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information |

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Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 2

[Daniel Morgan]
Head of Search
Accor

Presenters [Ariel Rosenstein]
Director of Marketing
Research
Kenshoo

[Yossi Synett]
Research Analytics
Team Lead
Kenshoo


Importance of Multi-Channel
Approach
History of Attribution

Agenda Reinvestment = Attribution
Types of Attribution Models
Viewing Data Via Different
Models
Accor Case Study
Choosing the Right Model


About Kenshoo

✔Controlled Automation ✔Algorithmic Optimization ✔Holistic Attribution ✔Infrastructure Integration
✔


Kenshoo.com/ForresterWave
Forrester Wave™: Bid Management Software Providers, Q4 '12

The Forrester Wave is copyrighted by Forrester
Research, Inc. Forrester and Forrester Wave are
trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. The Forrester
Wave is a graphical representation of Forrester's call
on a market and is plotted using a detailed
spreadsheet with exposed scores, weightings, and
comments. Forrester does not endorse any vendor,
product, or service depicted in the Forrester Wave.
Information is based on best available resources.
Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject
to change.


Importance of
Multi-Channel Approach


More important now, more than ever

1996 2011
20 millions U.S. internet users 245 millions U.S. internet users
 Average usage: 30 minutes/month  Average usage: 27 hours/month

Top rated TV show
Top rated TV show
 Sunday Night Football
 ER
 10.7% of household per average
 35% of household per average week
week

92% of surfers use a search engine

Average Facebook user
 15.5 hours/month on site

Video game usage matures
 Average gamer is 32 years old
 2 out of 5 gamers are female

Source: OnlineUniversity.net Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 8

Increased mobile activity
but results differ by device

Kenshoo Aggregate U.S. Client Metrics Q3 2012

COMPUTER PHONE TABLET

CLICKS 79% 11% 10%
AD SPEND 87% 6% 7%
CPC $0.48 $0.23 $0.31
CONVERSIONS 91.72% .061% 8.67%


Search engines performance varies

QUARTERLY U.S. SEARCH ENGINE
AVERAGE CLICK-THROUGH RATES

1.80%
1.61%
1.56%
1.60% 1.49% 1.49%

1.40%
1.25%
1.18%
1.20% 1.09% 1.08% 1.10%
1.03% 1.01%
1.00% 0.89%

0.80%

0.60%

0.40%

0.20%

0.00%
Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Google Yahoo Bing Network

Source: Kenshoo Global Search Advertising Trends, © 2012, Kenshoo, Inc. Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 10

Search engines’ performance varies

QUARTERLY U.S. SEARCH ADVERTISING
RETURN ON AD SPEND BY SEARCH ENGINE

1.27 1.30 1.29
1.24 1.23
1.20

1.14
1.04 1.05
1.00 0.99 0.96

Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012

Google Yahoo Bing Network

Source: Kenshoo Global Search Advertising Trends, © 2012, Kenshoo, Inc. Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 11

Facebook makes customers reachable
at all times of day

CONVERSIONS BY TIME OF DAY (FACEBOOK)

8.0%

7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Source: Kenshoo Social DSP partners Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 12

History of
Conversion Attribution


The early days of PPC

a company

2003 Yahoo!
buys Overture

2002 AdWords
goes to PPC Model


The assumption: One Conversion = One Click


Discovering the need for conversion attribution

Blue T-Shirt Red T-Shirt
Green T-Shirt XL Size
Great Prices Great Prices
T-shirt.com Available
T-shirt.com T-shirt.com

Keyword 1 Keyword 2 Keyword 3

Last-Click Attribution Model:
• Solves conversion duplication issue
• Assumes last click is most important


Reinvestment =
Conversion Attribution


Reinvestment based on data

Forecasting & Scenarios

Bid Algorithm Configuration
Mgmt Algorithm Selection

Geographies

Targeting Devices
Mgmt Sites and Content

Campaign Structure

Campaign Ad Copy & Testing
Management Keyword Selection

Attribution Model

Data Management & Mutli-Channel Data Connections
Integration Mutli-Source Data Reconciliation


GroovyTravel.com investment strategy
(with Last-Click attribution)

£1,500.00
cheap flights to Mexico GroovyTravel.com

£800.00
Revenue
Investment £1000
£600
Total ROAS =
1.88

Revenue
£500

Investment
£200

ROAS = 0.83 ROAS = 5


(with Last-Click attribution)


£980.00
£600.00
Revenue
£800
Investment
£200 Total ROAS =
Intended 1.63
Investment
£600

Revenue
£180
Actual
Investment
£400

ROAS = 0.9 ROAS = 2


GroovyTravel.com path to conversion

cheap
GroovyTrav
flights to £50
el.com
Mexico

cheap
flights to £450
Mexico

cheap
GroovyTrav
flights to £900
el.com
Mexico

GroovyTrav
£100
el.com


(with Distribute-Evenly attribution)

£1,500.00

£800.00
Revenue
£925
Revenue
£575 Total ROAS =
1.88

Investment
Investment
£600
£200

ROAS = 1.54 ROAS = 2.88


(with Distribute-Evenly attribution)

£1,800.00

£1,100.00
Total ROAS =
1.64

ROAS = 1.38 ROAS = 2.33


Types of Attribution Models


Attribution Models: Last-Click



Industry Default Model


Attribution Models: Linear



5% 10% 25% 60%

Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)


Attribution Models: Non-Linear



40% 10% 10% 40%

Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly


Attribution Models: Distribute-Evenly



25% 25% 25% 25%

Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly


Attribution Models: Single Click Only
(First or Last)



0% 0% 0% 100%

Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly


Last Click Attribution Undervalues
FB Performance

Increase in Facebook ROI for Retail
Advertiser Based on Revenue Attribution

First Prefer Distribute U-Shaped Prefer Last
Only First Evenly Last Touch

• Last Touch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


FB Performance



• Prefer Last

• Last Touch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


FB Performance



• U-Shaped

• Prefer Last

• Last Touch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


FB Performance



• Distribute Evenly

• U-Shaped

• Prefer Last

• Last Touch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


FB Performance



• Prefer First


• U-Shaped

• Prefer Last

• Last Touch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


FB Performance



• First Only

• Prefer First


• U-Shaped

• Prefer Last

• Last Touch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Case Study: Major US Retailer
Interplay between search & social channels

20% of all conversion paths showed ad clicks from more than one channel
(search and social)
• Over 1/3 had brand queries in the path to conversion
• Consumers discover brand on FB and then search for it by name

Logarithmic Distribution of Keywords in Multi-Channel Conversion Paths


Viewing Data via
Different Models


Considering multiple channels using
Kenshoo Attribution Model Simulator

ROI – Display

2.29

• Leading US pet supply cataloger using
last-click attribution 2.31

• Brought data from various channels
2.24
(email, CSE, display) into Kenshoo
Total
• Using Kenshoo Attribution Model
2.47
Simulator, saw best and worst case ROI
for each channel under different models
2.12
• Determined which model was best fit by
seeing how different channels would 2.27
benefit or lose from changing models
1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50

U Shape Prefer First Prefer Last
First Only Last Only Divide Equal


Case Study: Moving away from Last-Click

U.S. national service center chain increases ROI by changing attribution model
following a multi-model attribution analysis

Key Lessons
 Different regions have
different behaviors
 Last-Click model was
holding back potential
new to file customers
 Prefer last model better
allocated money


82% Increase in Revenues
Year-on-Year using
Kenshoo’s U-shaped Model
(Generic Keywords Jan-Mar 2011 Vs 2012)

Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information |

About Accor

Present in 92 countries, with more than 3,500 hotels and 440,000
rooms, Accor’s brands offer hotel stays tailored to the specific needs of
each business and leisure customer.

41

Introduction

• Accor Group began working with Kenshoo in April 2011

• Accor run paid search campaigns across all 13 brands in over 80
countries on the Kenshoo Platform

• In combination with Kenshoo, Accor use 2 other tracking softwares –
TARS & Xiti

• Campaigns are optimised using Kenshoo data but internal reports
continue to use TARS

42

The Rest of
Online
Media

Above-
Search
the-Line
Engines
Media

43

• The user clicks on an Accor
Search Paid Search Ad
Engine

• They arrive on the
Accorhotels.com site and
On-Site search for a hotel – No
Search Reservation

• They then access the Brand
Reservation website directly AND Reserve No Internal Sales
on Sister Attribution
site

44

Accor Turns to Kenshoo for a Solution...

Partners/Affil;
5% Maps; 4%
Other Search
Campaigns, 8%

Cross-site
Conversions
attributed as Direct SEA
"Direct Entry" Sales, 66%
internally, 18%

What we found
• Cross site conversion - SEA is directly affecting the direct access of all Accor’s websites
• Maps , Affiliation, Email -The more we spend on SEA the higher our revenues

45

No more conspiracy theories…

40% U-Shaped Model - attributes greater value
6.7% to the first and last clicks in the path with
6.7% both the starting and the closing keywords
6.7% getting the same credit regardless of the
40% length of the conversion path.

What we found:
• Generic affects brand – 10% of Brand sales started searches on generics
• Brand affects generic – Surprisingly 20% of brand searches generated generic clicks
• Brand affects other brand – Multiple Accor Brand Searches e.g. ibis then etap,then accor
• Generic affects generic – From broad searches to long tail e.g. “hotel paris” TO hotel “paris
with pool, excepts cats”

46

Optimisation becomes easier…

No need to spend in hope - Accor can optimise campaigns
by pausing any keywords or campaigns that do not
contribute to any conversion.
But the next challenge is to see if those campaigns that
don’t covert have a positive affect outside the cookie
period?

47

Developing an online relationship is key…

Success still heavily relies upon generating
awareness, which at the moment Search does not do well!

48 48

The Results

Accor’s Search Team can justify higher spend on paid search
Comparing the period from 1st January 2011 to 31st March 2011 when Kenshoo
tracking had not been implemented, to the same period in the year 2012:

• 82% increase in revenues
• Only 36% increase in spend
• 14% increase in revenues across all other channels
• 33% increase from brand terms

49

How to choose the right model


Attribution Model Simulation:
Inform your investment decisions

Track activity across
multiple channels
Gain target and
keyword-level insight
including contribution
in the conversion path
Empower strategic
decisions for budget
allocation, bid
management, and
keyword selection


Get insights

• Any single model will only show a single viewpoint, compare different models for the
most comprehensive view
• Lower costs by pruning ads/keywords that have no touch-points in any conversion
attribution model
• Expand assisting keywords to find new traffic generators and widen you market reach
• Don’t miss the forest for the trees, apply real world categories and use your own
business logic to make attribution model decisions


Download the full whitepaper

Kenshoo.com/ConversionAttributionWhitepaper


The Yahoo! Bing Network is a must-buy

Excerpt from Kenshoo GLOBAL SEARCH
ADVERTISING TRENDS, October 2012 Edition

“…with YBN consistently delivering better ROAS… the
new imperative for marketers is, at the very least, to be
active on YBN, if not make it the first place resources are
allocated and maximized.


Thank you

webcast@kenshoo.com


Improving SEM Results through Multi-Channel Conversion Attribution - Kenshoo Webinar

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