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Jarek Ratajski

Geecon Krakow 2023 presentation

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RESPECT ESTIMATES RESPECT ESTIMATES RESPECT ESTIMATES GEECON 2023 GEECON 2023 GEECON 2023 KRAKÓW KRAKÓW KRAKÓW
JAREK RATAJSKI JAREK RATAJSKI JAREK RATAJSKI Software Developer at Digital Asset Software Developer at Digital Asset Software Developer at Digital Asset
The talk is based on my personal opinions and The talk is based on my personal opinions and The talk is based on my personal opinions and does not represent point of view of my does not represent point of view of my does not represent point of view of my company or customers I am working for company or customers I am working for company or customers I am working for
Infamous monkey experiment Infamous monkey experiment Infamous monkey experiment
Actually, there is no evidence such experiment Actually, there is no evidence such experiment Actually, there is no evidence such experiment was ever held was ever held was ever held
Some scientists claim that monkeys are not Some scientists claim that monkeys are not Some scientists claim that monkeys are not that stupid that stupid that stupid
However, However, However,
However, However, However, we humans we humans we humans
However, However, However, we humans we humans we humans are not that smart are not that smart are not that smart
Lets start with Lets start with Lets start with estimates estimates estimates
http://www.commitstrip.com/en/2019/03/06/esti http://www.commitstrip.com/en/2019/03/06/est http://www.commitstrip.com/en/2019/03/06/est
Question: Question: Question: Random estimates? Random estimates? Random estimates?
What is an What is an What is an estimation estimation estimation? ? ?
Estimation Estimation Estimation (or estimating) is the process of (or estimating) is the process of (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is finding an estimate, or approximation, which is finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if a value that is usable for some purpose even if a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be input data may be input data may be incomplete incomplete incomplete,, , uncertain uncertain uncertain, or , or , or unstable unstable unstable.. . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation
What is an What is an What is an estimator estimator estimator? ? ?
An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator
An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) the estimator is itself a random(!) variable the estimator is itself a random(!) variable the estimator is itself a random(!) variable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER Estimations always yield random numbers Estimations always yield random numbers Estimations always yield random numbers By design By design By design
TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software developers frustrated developers frustrated developers frustrated
TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software developers frustrated developers frustrated developers frustrated
TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software developers frustrated developers frustrated developers frustrated Agile Developers Agile Developers Agile Developers
if someone needs perfect estimates? if someone needs perfect estimates? if someone needs perfect estimates?
This is the only sure method This is the only sure method This is the only sure method
QUESTION: QUESTION: QUESTION: Why we are so bad at estimating? Why we are so bad at estimating? Why we are so bad at estimating?
Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction industry industry industry
Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction industry industry industry ‒ but not in IT? ‒ but not in IT? ‒ but not in IT?
Building is different Building is different Building is different
You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials
You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in exactly that tool set exactly that tool set exactly that tool set
You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in exactly that tool set exactly that tool set exactly that tool set ‒ Tasks are often repetitive/standarized ‒ Tasks are often repetitive/standarized ‒ Tasks are often repetitive/standarized
In software development In software development In software development we do not repeat we do not repeat we do not repeat
We can We can We can but it would be slow but it would be slow but it would be slow
We are building our tools and changing our We are building our tools and changing our We are building our tools and changing our materials while we work with them materials while we work with them materials while we work with them This makes us elastic, powerful This makes us elastic, powerful This makes us elastic, powerful but makes software development less but makes software development less but makes software development less predictable predictable predictable
In IT we change plans while we are still In IT we change plans while we are still In IT we change plans while we are still constructing the foundation constructing the foundation constructing the foundation
Announcement Deadline 5 September 2006 (original) 30 October 2011 25 June 2010 3 June 2012 7 May 2012 17 March 2013 27 October 2012 27 October 2013 January 2013 on/after 2014 8 January 2014 on/after 2015 24 February 2014 on/after 2016 14 May 2014 on/after 2017 December 2014 2nd half of 2017 21 January 2017 2018 15 December 2017 October 2020
BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at €2.83 billion €2.83 billion €2.83 billion By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure
BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at €2.83 billion €2.83 billion €2.83 billion By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure 2019 €9.4 billion 2019 €9.4 billion 2019 €9.4 billion (wikipedia) (wikipedia) (wikipedia)
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER we are not that bad we are not that bad we are not that bad
TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER Thank you germans for this example. Thank you germans for this example. Thank you germans for this example.
QUESTION: QUESTION: QUESTION: Who needs estimates, anyway? Who needs estimates, anyway? Who needs estimates, anyway? Does your project need it? Does your project need it? Does your project need it?
When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated something? something? something?
When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated something? something? something? What wrong would happen if it took 3x longer? What wrong would happen if it took 3x longer? What wrong would happen if it took 3x longer?
When do we need to estimate? When do we need to estimate? When do we need to estimate?
Fixed price projects! Fixed price projects! Fixed price projects! Budgeting, Budgeting, Budgeting, Feasibility study Feasibility study Feasibility study
When do we do it? When do we do it? When do we do it?
When do we do it? When do we do it? When do we do it? probably too often probably too often probably too often
Does it really matter if it is 3 or 5 ? Does it really matter if it is 3 or 5 ? Does it really matter if it is 3 or 5 ?
8 people discuss for a 30 minutes if story is 8 people discuss for a 30 minutes if story is 8 people discuss for a 30 minutes if story is (probably) (probably) (probably) 1 or rather 2 days long 1 or rather 2 days long 1 or rather 2 days long
Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending time on planing ... time on planing ... time on planing ...
Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending time on planing ... time on planing ... time on planing ... doing estimates, that are not needed doing estimates, that are not needed doing estimates, that are not needed
Or at least, that do not have to be Or at least, that do not have to be Or at least, that do not have to be that that that precise precise precise
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER You probably do not need estimates You probably do not need estimates You probably do not need estimates
TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris
TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris
And we play tetris to have better And we play tetris to have better And we play tetris to have better velocity velocity velocity
QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION What is a velocity? What is a velocity? What is a velocity?
How many story points we do in a sprint How many story points we do in a sprint How many story points we do in a sprint
What is a story point? What is a story point? What is a story point?
Good question? Good question? Good question?
It is unit of time - just indirect It is unit of time - just indirect It is unit of time - just indirect
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER An hour has approximately 60 minutes An hour has approximately 60 minutes An hour has approximately 60 minutes
TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER In a real software project an hour has In a real software project an hour has In a real software project an hour has approximately 20 minutes approximately 20 minutes approximately 20 minutes
Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives #noestimates #noestimates #noestimates
Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives #noestimates #noestimates #noestimates 1,2,3 or ∞ 1,2,3 or ∞ 1,2,3 or ∞
Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives #noestimates #noestimates #noestimates 1,2,3 or ∞ 1,2,3 or ∞ 1,2,3 or ∞ trivial, boring, risky too big trivial, boring, risky too big trivial, boring, risky too big
QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION Do we have time for quality? Do we have time for quality? Do we have time for quality?
DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality
DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality The greatest lie of software developers The greatest lie of software developers The greatest lie of software developers
I can do it in 3 days, but I will need 6 days to do it I can do it in 3 days, but I will need 6 days to do it I can do it in 3 days, but I will need 6 days to do it in a good quality with tests, reviews etc. in a good quality with tests, reviews etc. in a good quality with tests, reviews etc.
VS VS VS
I can do it in 6 days I can do it in 6 days I can do it in 6 days If needed I can do it dirty way in 3 days, If needed I can do it dirty way in 3 days, If needed I can do it dirty way in 3 days, we will pay the price later we will pay the price later we will pay the price later
Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick and dirty and dirty and dirty
Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick and dirty and dirty and dirty
If they already have a working production ... If they already have a working production ... If they already have a working production ... probably probably probably not not not
If this is a startup, or a new project / proof of If this is a startup, or a new project / proof of If this is a startup, or a new project / proof of concept, possibly concept, possibly concept, possibly yes yes yes
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER It depends It depends It depends
TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER Using calculated words / sentences can shift Using calculated words / sentences can shift Using calculated words / sentences can shift blame for subpar code onto management blame for subpar code onto management blame for subpar code onto management
QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION How do you run in a marathon? How do you run in a marathon? How do you run in a marathon?
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER In sprints In sprints In sprints Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER In sprints In sprints In sprints Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible and repeat and repeat and repeat
Ideal sprint: Ideal sprint: Ideal sprint: 1st day of sprint - recovering after last sprint, planning, retro 2-3rd day of sprint - patching worst bugs, leftovers 4-5th day - clarifying stories
6-7th day - production dramas, firefighting, 8th day - implementing stories 9th neglecting tests, reviews - because demo 10th day demo
and again and again and again 1st day ... recovering
QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION What is a burndown chart What is a burndown chart What is a burndown chart
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog Really? Really? Really?
We have: We have: We have:
We have: We have: We have: daily
We have: We have: We have: daily small teams
We have: We have: We have: daily small teams short sprints
We have: We have: We have: daily small teams short sprints And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how are we progressing? are we progressing? are we progressing?
We have: We have: We have: daily small teams short sprints And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how are we progressing? are we progressing? are we progressing?
TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER Burndown chart is a picture that makes you Burndown chart is a picture that makes you Burndown chart is a picture that makes you feel bad feel bad feel bad
Are we not getting into a big distraction? Are we not getting into a big distraction? Are we not getting into a big distraction?
Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal
Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal
Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal
Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal SCRUM became the goal SCRUM became the goal SCRUM became the goal
What about? What about? What about?
What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality...
What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience...
What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience... Maintainability... Maintainability... Maintainability...
What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience... Maintainability... Maintainability... Maintainability... Knowledge management... Knowledge management... Knowledge management...
What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience... Maintainability... Maintainability... Maintainability... Knowledge management... Knowledge management... Knowledge management... Developer joy Developer joy Developer joy
There are lots of strange things happening There are lots of strange things happening There are lots of strange things happening around SCRUM around SCRUM around SCRUM
“The word 'agile' has been subverted to the “The word 'agile' has been subverted to the “The word 'agile' has been subverted to the point where it is effectively meaningless, and point where it is effectively meaningless, and point where it is effectively meaningless, and what passes for an agile community seems to what passes for an agile community seems to what passes for an agile community seems to be largely an arena for consultants and be largely an arena for consultants and be largely an arena for consultants and vendors to hawk services and products.” Dave vendors to hawk services and products.” Dave vendors to hawk services and products.” Dave Thomas, another Manifesto signatory: Thomas, another Manifesto signatory: Thomas, another Manifesto signatory: https://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to- https://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to- https://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to- kill-agile.html kill-agile.html kill-agile.html
QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION Going back to waterfall, then? Going back to waterfall, then? Going back to waterfall, then?
A personal secret. I was coding with a team A personal secret. I was coding with a team A personal secret. I was coding with a team already in 199x already in 199x already in 199x
ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER We were not doing any waterfall in 199x... We were not doing any waterfall in 199x... We were not doing any waterfall in 199x...
Winston Walker Royce 1970 Winston Walker Royce 1970 Winston Walker Royce 1970 ... implementation described above is risky and ... implementation described above is risky and ... implementation described above is risky and prone to failure... prone to failure... prone to failure...
Spiral model/iterations Spiral model/iterations Spiral model/iterations
Waterfall was created as a good Waterfall was created as a good Waterfall was created as a good public enemy public enemy public enemy by agile proponents by agile proponents by agile proponents
Kulak Kulak Kulak
TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER False dichotomy False dichotomy False dichotomy
ALTERNATIVES ALTERNATIVES ALTERNATIVES
Extreme Programming ? Extreme Programming ? Extreme Programming ?
Extreme Programming Extreme Programming Extreme Programming Tests CI User stories Pair programming
Extreme programming Extreme programming Extreme programming No certificates No Scrum masters No JIRA plugins No velocity
Extreme programming Extreme programming Extreme programming No certificates No Scrum masters No JIRA plugins No velocity No money
25% of time is sometimes 90% of energy 25% of time is sometimes 90% of energy 25% of time is sometimes 90% of energy
Richard Marmorstein (blog) Richard Marmorstein (blog) Richard Marmorstein (blog) The critical resource is not The critical resource is not The critical resource is not developer time developer time developer time, it's , it's , it's developer developer developer energy energy energy
Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software developers developers developers
Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software developers developers developers Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!!
Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software developers developers developers Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!! Q & A Q & A Q & A
respect-estimates.pdf

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respect-estimates.pdf

  • 1. RESPECT ESTIMATES RESPECT ESTIMATES RESPECT ESTIMATES GEECON 2023 GEECON 2023 GEECON 2023 KRAKÓW KRAKÓW KRAKÓW
  • 2. JAREK RATAJSKI JAREK RATAJSKI JAREK RATAJSKI Software Developer at Digital Asset Software Developer at Digital Asset Software Developer at Digital Asset
  • 3. The talk is based on my personal opinions and The talk is based on my personal opinions and The talk is based on my personal opinions and does not represent point of view of my does not represent point of view of my does not represent point of view of my company or customers I am working for company or customers I am working for company or customers I am working for
  • 4. Infamous monkey experiment Infamous monkey experiment Infamous monkey experiment
  • 5. Actually, there is no evidence such experiment Actually, there is no evidence such experiment Actually, there is no evidence such experiment was ever held was ever held was ever held
  • 6. Some scientists claim that monkeys are not Some scientists claim that monkeys are not Some scientists claim that monkeys are not that stupid that stupid that stupid
  • 9. However, However, However, we humans we humans we humans are not that smart are not that smart are not that smart
  • 10. Lets start with Lets start with Lets start with estimates estimates estimates
  • 13. What is an What is an What is an estimation estimation estimation? ? ?
  • 14. Estimation Estimation Estimation (or estimating) is the process of (or estimating) is the process of (or estimating) is the process of finding an estimate, or approximation, which is finding an estimate, or approximation, which is finding an estimate, or approximation, which is a value that is usable for some purpose even if a value that is usable for some purpose even if a value that is usable for some purpose even if input data may be input data may be input data may be incomplete incomplete incomplete,, , uncertain uncertain uncertain, or , or , or unstable unstable unstable.. . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation
  • 15. What is an What is an What is an estimator estimator estimator? ? ?
  • 16. An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator
  • 17. An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) (that is, a function of the data) the estimator is itself a random(!) variable the estimator is itself a random(!) variable the estimator is itself a random(!) variable https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimator
  • 18. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER Estimations always yield random numbers Estimations always yield random numbers Estimations always yield random numbers By design By design By design
  • 19. TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software developers frustrated developers frustrated developers frustrated
  • 20. TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software developers frustrated developers frustrated developers frustrated
  • 21. TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: TRUE ANSWER: Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software Estimation is a process of keeping software developers frustrated developers frustrated developers frustrated Agile Developers Agile Developers Agile Developers
  • 22. if someone needs perfect estimates? if someone needs perfect estimates? if someone needs perfect estimates?
  • 23.
  • 24. This is the only sure method This is the only sure method This is the only sure method
  • 25. QUESTION: QUESTION: QUESTION: Why we are so bad at estimating? Why we are so bad at estimating? Why we are so bad at estimating?
  • 26. Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction industry industry industry
  • 27. Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction Why do estimations work for the construction industry industry industry ‒ but not in IT? ‒ but not in IT? ‒ but not in IT?
  • 28. Building is different Building is different Building is different
  • 29. You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials
  • 30. You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in exactly that tool set exactly that tool set exactly that tool set
  • 31. You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with You have tools, materials, specialists with experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools experience in exactly that tools ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have known tools and materials ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in ‒ You have specialists with experience in exactly that tool set exactly that tool set exactly that tool set ‒ Tasks are often repetitive/standarized ‒ Tasks are often repetitive/standarized ‒ Tasks are often repetitive/standarized
  • 32. In software development In software development In software development we do not repeat we do not repeat we do not repeat
  • 33. We can We can We can but it would be slow but it would be slow but it would be slow
  • 34. We are building our tools and changing our We are building our tools and changing our We are building our tools and changing our materials while we work with them materials while we work with them materials while we work with them This makes us elastic, powerful This makes us elastic, powerful This makes us elastic, powerful but makes software development less but makes software development less but makes software development less predictable predictable predictable
  • 35.
  • 36. In IT we change plans while we are still In IT we change plans while we are still In IT we change plans while we are still constructing the foundation constructing the foundation constructing the foundation
  • 37. Announcement Deadline 5 September 2006 (original) 30 October 2011 25 June 2010 3 June 2012 7 May 2012 17 March 2013 27 October 2012 27 October 2013 January 2013 on/after 2014 8 January 2014 on/after 2015 24 February 2014 on/after 2016 14 May 2014 on/after 2017 December 2014 2nd half of 2017 21 January 2017 2018 15 December 2017 October 2020
  • 38. BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at €2.83 billion €2.83 billion €2.83 billion By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure
  • 39. BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT BERLIN BRANDENBURG AIRPORT By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at By 2009 the construction cost was budgeted at €2.83 billion €2.83 billion €2.83 billion By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin By late 2012 expenditures for Berlin Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, Brandenburg Airport totalled at €4.3 billion, nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure nearly twice the originally anticipated figure 2019 €9.4 billion 2019 €9.4 billion 2019 €9.4 billion (wikipedia) (wikipedia) (wikipedia)
  • 40.
  • 42. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER we are not that bad we are not that bad we are not that bad
  • 43. TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER Thank you germans for this example. Thank you germans for this example. Thank you germans for this example.
  • 44. QUESTION: QUESTION: QUESTION: Who needs estimates, anyway? Who needs estimates, anyway? Who needs estimates, anyway? Does your project need it? Does your project need it? Does your project need it?
  • 45. When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated something? something? something?
  • 46. When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated When was the last time you estimated something? something? something? What wrong would happen if it took 3x longer? What wrong would happen if it took 3x longer? What wrong would happen if it took 3x longer?
  • 47. When do we need to estimate? When do we need to estimate? When do we need to estimate?
  • 48. Fixed price projects! Fixed price projects! Fixed price projects! Budgeting, Budgeting, Budgeting, Feasibility study Feasibility study Feasibility study
  • 49. When do we do it? When do we do it? When do we do it?
  • 50. When do we do it? When do we do it? When do we do it? probably too often probably too often probably too often
  • 51. Does it really matter if it is 3 or 5 ? Does it really matter if it is 3 or 5 ? Does it really matter if it is 3 or 5 ?
  • 52. 8 people discuss for a 30 minutes if story is 8 people discuss for a 30 minutes if story is 8 people discuss for a 30 minutes if story is (probably) (probably) (probably) 1 or rather 2 days long 1 or rather 2 days long 1 or rather 2 days long
  • 53. Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending time on planing ... time on planing ... time on planing ...
  • 54. Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending Everyday hundreds of developers are spending time on planing ... time on planing ... time on planing ... doing estimates, that are not needed doing estimates, that are not needed doing estimates, that are not needed
  • 55. Or at least, that do not have to be Or at least, that do not have to be Or at least, that do not have to be that that that precise precise precise
  • 56. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER You probably do not need estimates You probably do not need estimates You probably do not need estimates
  • 57. TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris
  • 58. TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is The only result of having tons of estimates is the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris the possibility to play scrum tetris
  • 59. And we play tetris to have better And we play tetris to have better And we play tetris to have better velocity velocity velocity
  • 60. QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION What is a velocity? What is a velocity? What is a velocity?
  • 61. How many story points we do in a sprint How many story points we do in a sprint How many story points we do in a sprint
  • 62. What is a story point? What is a story point? What is a story point?
  • 64. It is unit of time - just indirect It is unit of time - just indirect It is unit of time - just indirect
  • 65.
  • 66. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER An hour has approximately 60 minutes An hour has approximately 60 minutes An hour has approximately 60 minutes
  • 67. TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER In a real software project an hour has In a real software project an hour has In a real software project an hour has approximately 20 minutes approximately 20 minutes approximately 20 minutes
  • 70. Alternatives Alternatives Alternatives #noestimates #noestimates #noestimates 1,2,3 or ∞ 1,2,3 or ∞ 1,2,3 or ∞ trivial, boring, risky too big trivial, boring, risky too big trivial, boring, risky too big
  • 71. QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION Do we have time for quality? Do we have time for quality? Do we have time for quality?
  • 72. DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality
  • 73. DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER DEVELOPER ANSWER We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality We do not have time for quality The greatest lie of software developers The greatest lie of software developers The greatest lie of software developers
  • 74. I can do it in 3 days, but I will need 6 days to do it I can do it in 3 days, but I will need 6 days to do it I can do it in 3 days, but I will need 6 days to do it in a good quality with tests, reviews etc. in a good quality with tests, reviews etc. in a good quality with tests, reviews etc.
  • 76. I can do it in 6 days I can do it in 6 days I can do it in 6 days If needed I can do it dirty way in 3 days, If needed I can do it dirty way in 3 days, If needed I can do it dirty way in 3 days, we will pay the price later we will pay the price later we will pay the price later
  • 77. Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick and dirty and dirty and dirty
  • 78. Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick Do not assume business wants always quick and dirty and dirty and dirty
  • 79. If they already have a working production ... If they already have a working production ... If they already have a working production ... probably probably probably not not not
  • 80. If this is a startup, or a new project / proof of If this is a startup, or a new project / proof of If this is a startup, or a new project / proof of concept, possibly concept, possibly concept, possibly yes yes yes
  • 81.
  • 83. TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER Using calculated words / sentences can shift Using calculated words / sentences can shift Using calculated words / sentences can shift blame for subpar code onto management blame for subpar code onto management blame for subpar code onto management
  • 84. QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION How do you run in a marathon? How do you run in a marathon? How do you run in a marathon?
  • 85. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER In sprints In sprints In sprints Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible
  • 86. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER In sprints In sprints In sprints Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible Just run 100 meters as fast as possible and repeat and repeat and repeat
  • 87. Ideal sprint: Ideal sprint: Ideal sprint: 1st day of sprint - recovering after last sprint, planning, retro 2-3rd day of sprint - patching worst bugs, leftovers 4-5th day - clarifying stories
  • 88. 6-7th day - production dramas, firefighting, 8th day - implementing stories 9th neglecting tests, reviews - because demo 10th day demo
  • 89. and again and again and again 1st day ... recovering
  • 90.
  • 91. QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION What is a burndown chart What is a burndown chart What is a burndown chart
  • 92. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog
  • 93. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal Burndown ... It is internal tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to tool/visualsation that team uses to predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog predict delivery of sprint backlog Really? Really? Really?
  • 95. We have: We have: We have: daily
  • 96. We have: We have: We have: daily small teams
  • 97. We have: We have: We have: daily small teams short sprints
  • 98. We have: We have: We have: daily small teams short sprints And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how are we progressing? are we progressing? are we progressing?
  • 99. We have: We have: We have: daily small teams short sprints And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how And we need an additional chart to see how are we progressing? are we progressing? are we progressing?
  • 100. TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER Burndown chart is a picture that makes you Burndown chart is a picture that makes you Burndown chart is a picture that makes you feel bad feel bad feel bad
  • 101. Are we not getting into a big distraction? Are we not getting into a big distraction? Are we not getting into a big distraction?
  • 102. Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal
  • 103. Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal
  • 104. Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal
  • 105. Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became Velocity somehow became the goal the goal the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Perfect estimates became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal Nice charts became the goal SCRUM became the goal SCRUM became the goal SCRUM became the goal
  • 107. What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality...
  • 108. What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience...
  • 109. What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience... Maintainability... Maintainability... Maintainability...
  • 110. What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience... Maintainability... Maintainability... Maintainability... Knowledge management... Knowledge management... Knowledge management...
  • 111. What about? What about? What about? Quality... Quality... Quality... User experience... User experience... User experience... Maintainability... Maintainability... Maintainability... Knowledge management... Knowledge management... Knowledge management... Developer joy Developer joy Developer joy
  • 112. There are lots of strange things happening There are lots of strange things happening There are lots of strange things happening around SCRUM around SCRUM around SCRUM
  • 113. “The word 'agile' has been subverted to the “The word 'agile' has been subverted to the “The word 'agile' has been subverted to the point where it is effectively meaningless, and point where it is effectively meaningless, and point where it is effectively meaningless, and what passes for an agile community seems to what passes for an agile community seems to what passes for an agile community seems to be largely an arena for consultants and be largely an arena for consultants and be largely an arena for consultants and vendors to hawk services and products.” Dave vendors to hawk services and products.” Dave vendors to hawk services and products.” Dave Thomas, another Manifesto signatory: Thomas, another Manifesto signatory: Thomas, another Manifesto signatory: https://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to- https://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to- https://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to- kill-agile.html kill-agile.html kill-agile.html
  • 114. QUESTION QUESTION QUESTION Going back to waterfall, then? Going back to waterfall, then? Going back to waterfall, then?
  • 115. A personal secret. I was coding with a team A personal secret. I was coding with a team A personal secret. I was coding with a team already in 199x already in 199x already in 199x
  • 116. ANSWER ANSWER ANSWER We were not doing any waterfall in 199x... We were not doing any waterfall in 199x... We were not doing any waterfall in 199x...
  • 117. Winston Walker Royce 1970 Winston Walker Royce 1970 Winston Walker Royce 1970 ... implementation described above is risky and ... implementation described above is risky and ... implementation described above is risky and prone to failure... prone to failure... prone to failure...
  • 119.
  • 120. Waterfall was created as a good Waterfall was created as a good Waterfall was created as a good public enemy public enemy public enemy by agile proponents by agile proponents by agile proponents
  • 122. TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER TRUE ANSWER False dichotomy False dichotomy False dichotomy
  • 124. Extreme Programming ? Extreme Programming ? Extreme Programming ?
  • 125. Extreme Programming Extreme Programming Extreme Programming Tests CI User stories Pair programming
  • 126. Extreme programming Extreme programming Extreme programming No certificates No Scrum masters No JIRA plugins No velocity
  • 127. Extreme programming Extreme programming Extreme programming No certificates No Scrum masters No JIRA plugins No velocity No money
  • 128.
  • 129. 25% of time is sometimes 90% of energy 25% of time is sometimes 90% of energy 25% of time is sometimes 90% of energy
  • 130. Richard Marmorstein (blog) Richard Marmorstein (blog) Richard Marmorstein (blog) The critical resource is not The critical resource is not The critical resource is not developer time developer time developer time, it's , it's , it's developer developer developer energy energy energy
  • 131. Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software developers developers developers
  • 132. Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software developers developers developers Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!!
  • 133. Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that Regarding the discovery of an approach that effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software effectively utilizes the potential of software developers developers developers Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!! Exercise for the listener!!! Q & A Q & A Q & A