Ind ii2 national roads program proposal to dgh 09jul12 plus concepts

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  • 1. IndII Support to DGH on National Roads –- Road sector achievements and future program DGH, 9 July 2012
  • 2. IndII Support under Phase 1 - summary• MTEF, budgeting and sector performance: – Budgeting process, strategy linkage to long-term plan, KPI, action plan• Road network development and planning (Bipran-AECOM): – NR Masterplan, road corridor plans for E Sumatra & N Java – BPJT capacity, institutional options and toll road program• Road program delivery (Bintek-Cardno): – Extending design life, life-cycle costs, axle load limits, performance-based contracts, project management, routine maintenance delivery• Road sector policy issues: – South Africa visit: SANRAL MTEF, road management, business model• Sub-national roads: – Pilot on road management surveys, programming and routine maintenance• Road safety: – Blackspot program prepared, design manual produced 2
  • 3. Challenges for the road sector - MTEF• Infrastructure is a critical constraint to growth – low competitiveness ranking for road infrastructure provision• Poor connectivity – Main corridor times 60-100 percent longer than neighbours• Low cost effectiveness of road asset management – while condition is fairly good, deterioration is rapid – high annual costs, equivalent to new road every 5 years – fragmented contracts; weak construction industry.• Changed resource environment – 6-fold increase in funding in 6 years, 95+% budget execution – Value for money?? - average cost up, but output flat• Weak linkages to national development plan – lacks targets on connectivity, efficiency and effectiveness 3
  • 4. Phase 1 – Road Program implementation• Strong direction & interaction with Bintek and Balai• Revision to Pavement Design Guide: • Long-life designs (low maintenance) • Catalog approach for greater reliability (based on detailed analysis and life-cycle costs) • Strong foundation and drainage for long life • Overloading incorporated in design • Flexible, rigid, reconstructed and recycled pavements• Larger package size improves cost and quality• Balai want automated road surveys for better data• Options for management of routine maintenance• Economic justification for raising legal axle load limit 4
  • 5. Phase 1 – Road Network Development Connectivity: • low connectivity compared to regional neighbours, but no target • how do we measure performance and set targets? • need to measure, report and forecast travel times • link RENSTRA workplan to connectivity target and national long-term plan Normalized Trip Times on Economic Corridor Arterial Roads – 2011 Estimates Trip time hr/100 km*High land transport costs – low 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0connectivity of economic centres Trans-Sumatra 1 Target Service level Trans-Java 1-1.5 hr/100 km 2 Vietnam Indonesia Kalimantan 3 China Sulawesi 4 Thailand Malaysia Bali-NTT 5 Papua-Maluku 60.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Trip time (hr/100 km) * Corridor distance shorter Road Trip Time Nautical Add-on than Arterial road distance Source: IndII estimates from bus schedules and DGH data, April 2012 5
  • 6. DGH Masterplan for Road Infrastructure 2010-14 Road Length, km - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000Road development program - Sumatra Incremental widening to 3,690 minimum width standard Java 1,430• Budget IDR 7 trillion/yr Kalimantan 2,780• Covers 47% of network in 5 yr Sulawesi 3,160 Total Length• Increments to 4.5, 6 or 7 m width NTT 987 ImprovedBut comes at high cost: length Maluku-Papua 1,905• No distance saving, little speed Width standard of national arterial roads, improvement after DGH road development program 2010-14• Investment repeated in 5-10 yrs 7m• High cost = 30-40% of full width 14% construction for 20-yr life 6 m width 4.5 m width• Defers achieving modern asset 33% 53%• Compounds land issues 6
  • 7. Corridor planning approach for long-term development Nunukan Malinau Corridor plan evaluates options when generating project pipeline and Tj. Selor investment profile for Economic Aruk Corridor: Ng Badau staged over 5, 10, Enttikong Putusibau 15 & 20 year periods Pontianak Tayan Samarinda Balikpapan PalangkarayaStrategic Options(1) Widen existing road Banjarmasin(2) Realign & rebuild – “road renewal”; digambarkan dengan garis putus-putus Jalan yang belum terbangun Road standard(3) Highway on future expressway Expressway location >= 7 m 6m(4) Expressway in new location 4.5 – 6 m Not Connected Sea Port 7
  • 8. Corridor plan (trans-Sumatra example): detailed multi-year program & standard 8
  • 9. Corridor plan – strip map presentation: Trans-Sumatra - Corridor Plan for Staged Development of Capacity in Parallel Facilities over long-term 20-yr periodARTERIAL NATIONAL ROAD WIDTHWidth m 14 2019 Road Width 10 2024 2014 7 6 5 2010 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 B Aceh B Aceh Medan Medan Pekanbaru Pekanba Lampung Palembg LampungLength km 644 694 754 443 0Total distance 2536 1892 1198 443 EXPRESSWAY Dual Cway Renstra period color code Baseline 2010-2014 2015-2019 2020-2024 2025-2029 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 B Aceh Medan Pekanba Palembg Lampung 2029 2019 2024 2019 Length km 460 564 610 380 0 Distance km 2014 1554 990 380 9
  • 10. Corridor Plan Output - Trans-Sumatra Example: Linkage of Development Outcomes and Financing Plan – Long-term 20-yr Period Connectivity: 80 Financing Plan 5-Year Spending estimate (IDR T) Travel Time from South to 70 1,5 North 60 7 50 70 60 40 58,6TRAVEL TIME (hr) 50 30 47,9 0 40 20 20,2 30 B Aceh 10 2,6 1,7 3 3,6 3 3 3 0 20 Medan 0 1,8 Pekanb 10 R1 R2 R3 R4 Palem RENSTRA PERIOD 0 Boukh 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Rd Presv Rd Widening Exwy GOI Exwy PrivSec 10
  • 11. Forecast of Forward Funding Requirements (demonstration only, from study data)• Public funding of IDR 42-56 trillion/yr required 2015-29• Only IDR 4 trillion/yr (16%) attractive to private sector• Road development requires IDR 19 trillion/yr – in renewal• Road preservation 20-30% less due to stronger roads 70 Forecast Funding Requirements 60 Annual Funding Requirement, IDR trillion (2011 prices) 50 40 Expressway - private funding 30 Expressway - public funding 20 Arterial road development 10 Road preservation Road management 0 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 11
  • 12. Priorities for Phase 2 supportBased on DGH priorities and Phase 1 findings, key areas include:• Preparation of long-term national road master-plan: – Connectivity in main economic corridors – Expressway development, project pipeline and financing – Modernisation of arterial road network• Better road performance and lower annual costs – extend life of road assets – expected and actual• Better budget allocation and accountability – Improved asset management and systems• Strategic priorities for RENSTRA and funding requirement• Staff performance, capability and accountability 12
  • 13. Proposed activities for Phase 2 National roadsPolicyPlanningProgram delivery 13
  • 14. 1. Advisory support on road sector policy - DG, DirectorsAims• Improving sector and institutional performance• Effective legal, regulatory & financing provisions• Effectiveness of IndII support to DGH & road sectorSub-activities:• Dialog with GOI – MPW, MOF, Bappenas, CMEA, MoT• Revisions to Road Law• Expressway financing and issues• Institutional structure and organizational performance• Management and financing• Sub-national road role, road preservation fund• IndII road program effectiveness 14
  • 15. 2. Support on Planning Road Development- Bipran, BPJTAims:• Plan road development to meet connectivity goals• Strategy for modernising arterial road network• Improve delivery & financing of expressway networkMain outputs:• Long-term development strategy for road infrastructure• 20-yr pipeline of investment projects in economic corridors• Expressway masterplan and PPP-VGF demonstration• Road renewal policy to modernise arterial road networkPerformance measures:• Connectivity (travel time) in main corridors• Accessibility in eastern region (km/km2) 15
  • 16. 2. Support on Planning Road Development:Sub-activities• Procedures for planning development of road network – Advisory support in Bipran: long-term planning of connectivity & capacity in corridors, road renewal policy, medium-term pipeline, KPI for network, staff competencies and training• Planning & capacity for developing expressway network – Update expressway master-plan, include staging – BPJT advisory support, VGF financing mechanisms, capacity-building, review of packages, institutional options• Preparation of corridor plans for Java and Sumatra – Refine corridor plans & extend to arterial corridors, prepare 2015-19 project pipeline, guidance on expressway packages• Preparation of corridor plans & pipeline for east region – Survey, analyse and prepare plans for 4 main corridors in Kal, Sul, Bali-NTT, M-Papua; 2015-19 pipeline; review needs for other NAR• Preparation of medium- and long-term plans – Assist preparation of 2015-19 RENSTRA and 2015-24 long-term plan 16
  • 17. 3. Improving performance of national road program implementation (Bintek, balai)Aims:• To extend asset life through improved design• To build capacity for asset management in balai implementation offices• To improve delivery and quality of construction and maintenancePerformance measures:• Expected life and actual life of major works• Contract package length• Average preservation costs/km/yr• Road and bridge condition• Percentage of arterial road renewed 17
  • 18. 3. Improving the performance of national road program implementation (cont)• Implementation of new design code – Longer life, better foundation & drainage, concrete• Application of road renewal policy – Programming, design & implementation of road renewal along arterial corridors coordinated with long-term network plan• Development of improved asset management tools – Automated surveys, practical life-cycle programming tool with strip-map report to replace IRMS, performance indicator reports• Improved project management, skills & performance – Satker and PPK strengthened in contract packaging, procurement and supervision – Further use of performance-based and maintenance contracts• Piloting of asset management & project management – 2 balai in 2013, then progressively to other balai 2014-15. 18
  • 19. 3. Improving the performance of national road program implementation (cont)• Improved public participation – Use of program reports in local consultation, public disclosure of program and project information (perhaps through CoST)• Improved performance and incentives for contractors – Support for action plan of Bp Konstruksi to improve certification and performance evaluation, strengthen LPJK and accountability 19
  • 20. Interim activities – July-December 2012• Bintek support: – Training of balai on new pavement design manual, calibration of structural tests, preparation of drainage design manual, baseline survey of KPI• DG, Bipran support: – Preparing & convening national symposium on road network development and financing, with GOI & international participants• Bipran support: – Baseline surveys of connectivity in main trunk routes; review status of new toll road packages; preparation for main activity• Detailed preparation and procurement of IndII DGH activities 20
  • 21. IndII-2 in DGH:Key concepts to note• Expressway as class of public road, not toll road• New public financing model (VGF) in PPP – Availability- or performance-based, quarterly payment, toll optional• Long-term corridor plan selects road standard and timing of renewal• Road renewal policy – Defers betterment until full realignment & construction planned – Gains long life, safe, modern highway• Asset management and programming function for preservation transferred to balai, with graphical tool• Costs reduced by extending expected and actual life• Independence between supervision and contractor• Monitor outcomes – KPI on travel time, age, costs 21
  • 22. Timeline for Phase 2 on national roads Month Activity Jan-12 DGH workshop on future direction, Ongoing IndII-DGH discussions Apr-12 IndII consultation on strategy with AusAID Jul-12 - Activity proposals drafted - Activities discussed with DGH - Policy adviser (John Lee) arrives Aug-12 - Activity designs finalised, procurement starts; - Interim activities start Oct-12 Symposium on road development planning and financing Jan-13 Expected start of main Planning and Implementation activities Jan-14 Mid-term review Dec-14 Main activities end 22
  • 23. Conclusion• The activities are designed to support DGH in delivering its program• Core support will be provided through individual advisers working as partner to Directorate staff in DGH offices• Consultant teams will be coordinated by the advisers and work closely with DGH staff in central and balai offices• The teams will be most effective if working space can be made available in DGH offices• Your input to the activity design is important – especially in the next two months Jul-Aug Terima kasih 23
  • 24. 4. Sub-national roads: Incentivising road management Objectives Implementation and Outcomes  Strengthening central Component 1: Preparation of Grant Design and Interim and provincial Support for Critical Elements to expedite program, agencies on asset (implemented second half of 2012) management for sub- Component 2: Consultants for project management and national roads (SNR) implementation of grant program over 5 years, 2014-2018;  Improving participation  Creation of SNR project management unit in DGH by private sector and  Establishment of transport forums the public – to improve communication and  TA and training in planning and implementation of agency performance maintenance & rehabilitation, and PBC  Implementation of pilot  Incentives for increased budget allocation, for output-based road contracting out works and performance-based contracts maintenance and rehabilitation program  Staged pilot, starting with one province (NTT) increasing to up to other jurisdictions, based on demonstrated  Effective delivery of capability and commitment. IndII support for sub- national roads 24
  • 25. 5. Improving Road Safety Blackspots and Program Management Objectives Implementation and Outcomes Building capability of Component 1: Interim support: international road safety central and regional specialist supporting RSEU 3 p-months to Jul-12; offices for managing Component 2. Implementation support by Consultant firm for 24 months to Jun-14 (2-stage); blackspot improvement Component 3. Program management support by International programs specialist (50% of 30 months). Implementation of Strategic Plan for Road Safety in DGH blackspot improvements to meet  RSEU, DGH balai and local police trained in managing RENSTRA targets road safety programs, Developing and  Support to achieve 150 blackspot improvements to monitoring road safety achieve RENSTRA objectives programs in national  Three fact-finding missions provide overseas training and police and sub-national experience to 60 officials road agencies  Performance and results publicised and build GOI donor Effective delivery of & public support for road safety programs IndII support for road safety•  Further road safety programs ready in DGH, INTP and sub-national DGLT agencies. 25