Dr Maria Martin, EPA - Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland – Trends and Projections

1. State of the Environment in Ireland 2012
Meeting the Main Environmental Challenges
Workshop - 27 June 2012
2012
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
in Ireland – Trends and
Projections
Dr Maria Martin
Climate Change and Environmental
Research Programme

2. EPA’s role on inventories and projections
 EPA was established as the competent authority for the
National Atmospheric Inventory System in 2007
 National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the
EPA responsible for producing national emission
projections
 EPA submits figures to EU and UN on an annual basis for
inventories and EU biannually for projections
 EPA Team – Dr. Eimear Cotter, Paul Duffy, Bernard Hyde
Stephan Leinert and Emilia Hanley
 Coordination, quality assurance and quality control of data
from wide range of sources e.g.
 SEAI, Teagasc, CSO, Department of Agriculture and Marine, ESRI

3. Greenhouse Gas Trends 1990-2010
80
-4%
70
+27% -9%
60
Mtonnes, CO2eq
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste

4. Sectoral Emission Trends 1990-2010
25
20
Mtonnes, CO2eq
15
10
5
0
Waste
Transport 1.4% Energy
18.9% 21.8%
Energy Residential
Industry & Commercial Agriculture
Transport Waste
Residential
12.7%
Agriculture
30.5% Industry &
Commercial
2010 14.6%

5. Ireland’s Emissions Trading Sector
25
-9%
-16%
20
+1%
-9%
Mtonnes, CO2eq
15
10
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
30% drop in emissions from the Emissions Trading Sector between 2005 and 2011
5

6. Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections
70
60
50
Mtonnes, CO2eq
40 With Measures – existing policies and measures
With Additional Measures – existing and planned policies and measures
30
20
10
-
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
With Measures With Additional Measures

7. Kyoto Protocol Limit
75
Ireland is on track to
70
meet its Kyoto
Mtonnes, CO2eq
65 Kyoto Limit = 62.837
commitment
60
55
Projections indicate
50
4.1-5.1 Mt CO2eq above
45 KP limit over 2008-2012
40
Range represents two
scenarios – With
With Measures With Additional Measures
Kyoto Limit Baseline
Measures and With
Additional Measures
7

8. EU 2020 Targets
 Overall target is 20% reduction compared to 1990 levels
 Separates the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between
ETS and non-ETS sectors over period 2013-2020
 ETS – EU wide cap rather than national caps, reducing by 1.74%
per annum to give an overall reduction of 21% by 2020 compared to
2005.
 No free allocation to Powergen sector
 Limited free allocation starting at 70%, reducing to 30% benchmark
in other areas
 Sectors subject to carbon leakage receive 100% benchmark

9. Non–ETS sectors
 Non-ETS sectors - transport, buildings, agriculture
and waste - governed by the EU Effort Sharing
Decision (ESD)
 Establishes annual binding greenhouse gas emission
targets for EU Member States for non-ETS sectors
for the period 2013–2020
 The target for Ireland for non-ETS sectors is to
reduce emissions by 20% in 2020 relative to 2005
levels

10. EU Effort Sharing Decision – 20%
45
40
35
30
CO2eq, Mtonnes
25
20
15
10
5
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
WM WAM Annual Limits
10

11. Sectoral Share – non-ETS sectors
Residential Waste 3%
Agriculture and
12%
transport - 75% of non-
Industry& ETS sector emissions
Commercial in 2020
10%
Agriculture
48% Shows the important
role that transport and
agriculture will play in
Transport 27% developing mitigation
options to achieve 2020
targets
2020
11

12. Transport
 EPA’s Transport projection assumes
 Technological improvements – improved fuel efficiency
 10% biofuels in 2020
 Achievement of electric vehicle target of 200,000 electric vehicles
by 2020
 More efficient traffic movements
 Further improvements are possible – require behavioural
changes and removal of barriers to new technologies

13. Agriculture
 Agriculture projection assumes
 Full achievement of Food Harvest targets
 Removal of milk quota by April 1 2015
 Efficiencies included in line with Sectoral Road Map for Dairying
 Teagasc (2012) – potential for further reductions-
improvements in the Economic Breeding Index, extended
grazing and nitrogen efficiency - require behavioural
changes incentivisation.

14. Flexibilities under the Effort Sharing
Decision
 Carry forward from the following year a quantity of up to
5% of its annual emission allocation
 Carry over of excess emission reductions to the
subsequent years
 Transfer part of the annual emission allocation to other
Member States
 Use of credits up to 3% of a Member States 2005
emissions - additional 1% limit for some MS

15. Conclusions
 Ireland is on track to meet its Kyoto commitment taking into
account the EU ETS and/or the potential use of credits already
purchased by the State
 Ireland is projected to exceed its EU Effort Sharing Decision
annual limits in 2015-2017 and its 2020 target
 Now is the time to set both the right level of ambition and the
right pace of transition to a low-carbon economy
 Need to focus on delivering currently planned policies and
measures to achieve With Additional Measures scenario and
identify new policies and measures
 Focus should be on domestic action – agriculture and transport
 Domestic action can contribute to economic recovery,
innovation and wider environmental benefits.