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Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
This document outlines a roadmap for achieving an 80% reduction in carbon emissions in the EU by 2050. It details pathways that are sustainable, technically feasible, and have a positive economic impact. These pathways include increasing renewable energy sources like wind and solar to 60-80% of electricity production, deploying carbon capture and storage technology for 20-50% of industry emissions, and using nuclear power for 20% of electricity. It also analyzes the infrastructure needs like increased transmission lines and backup generation capacity to support high shares of variable renewable resources while keeping curtailment of renewable energy low. Cost estimates are provided for the annual capital expenditures needed along with projected costs of electricity generation. The European Commission aims to provide long-term policy
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Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
- 1. ROADMAP 2050 A prac/cal guide to a prosperous, low-‐carbon Europe Tom Brookes NESC EPA Ireland, Dublin, November 14 2012 PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of the European Climate Foundation is strictly prohibited
- 2. Project Set-Up: organisationsinvolved
- 3. THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYSANALYSED ARE SUSTAINABLE, TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE, AND HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
- 4. AT LEAST 80%CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION 1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve 2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline 3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries) SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Roadmap 2050 Technical Analysis
- 5. ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2050 (EU-27+ Norway & Switzerland)
- 6. RES DIVERSITY CONTRIBUTESTO CONSISTENT SUPPLY
- 7. INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS UK + UK + Ireland Ireland
- 8. AN EU APPROACHREQUIRES A THIRD LESS RESERVE CAPACITY Maximal reserve requirement1, GW Region 80% RES 60% RES UK & Ireland France Iberia Nordic Benelux & Germany Central-‐Europe Poland & Baltic South East Europe Italy & Malta Total EU27 281 191 Benefit of reserve sharing Total with reserve sharing 183 125 between regions -‐35% -‐35% 8 8
- 9. CURTAILMENT IS KEPTLOW THROUGH GRID EXPANSION AND BACK-UP CAPACITY 2050, GW Transmission & generation capacity requirements RES curtail-‐ Pathways DR, % Transmission Back-‐up and balancing ment1, % Baseline 0 2 Requirements on top of the baseline 80% RES 0 3 10% CCS 10% nuclear 20 2 60% RES 0 2 20% CCS 20% nuclear 20 1 9 9
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- 13. Commission Work Programme2013 The European Commission has announced a comprehensive 2030 framework for energy and climate policies: • To meet 80-95% GHG emission reduction objective in 2050 compared to 1990 • To foster long term competitiveness, security of supply and sustainability • To provide a long-term perspective for investments until 2030.