EPA Projections - Dr. Eimear Cotter - EPA/SEAI Future Energy Workshop June 2011

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EPA Projections - Dr. Eimear Cotter - EPA/SEAI Future Energy Workshop June 2011

  1. 1. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Projections Office of Climate, Licensing and Resource Use Dr Eimear Cotter Future Energy Workshop 1 st July 2011
  2. 2. Contents <ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Projections 2010-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Kyoto Targets </li></ul><ul><li>2020 Targets </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  3. 3. GHG emissions 1990-2009 (excluding LULUCF) +21% -3% -8%
  4. 4. Interannual Change in GHG Emissions -5.4 Mt CO 2 eq
  5. 5. GHG emissions 1990 and 2009 1990 2009
  6. 6. GHG emissions and GDP (relative trend) GDP GHG Emissions
  7. 7. Contents <ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Projections 2010-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Kyoto Targets </li></ul><ul><li>2020 Targets </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  8. 8. Key macroeconomic assumptions <ul><li>ESRI Recovery Scenarios for Ireland: An Update – July 2010 (Low Growth Scenario) </li></ul>Low Growth Scenario Growth rate (% per annum) Average Annual % Growth 2009 2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 GDP -7.1% -0.4% 3.2% 2.1% GNP -12.2% 0.0% 3.0% 2.2% Personal Consumption -11.3% -9.0% 2.1% 1.5% 2009 2010 2015 2020 Housing completions (‘000) 26 10 32.7 38.0 Stock of cars (‘000) 1,917 1,819 1,891 2,032 Population (‘000) 4,459 4,431 4,484 4,669
  9. 9. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections (without carbon sinks) +3% -7%
  10. 10. With Additional Measures (without carbon sinks) -7% +4% -8% -12% -29% -4%
  11. 11. Contents <ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Projections 2010-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Kyoto Targets </li></ul><ul><li>2020 Targets </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  12. 12. Kyoto Protocol Limit – Distance to Target Mtonnes of CO 2 e With Measures Average 2008-2012 60.0 Attributed to ETS 17.8 Attributed to non-ETS 42.2 Distance to target 1.6
  13. 13. Kyoto Protocol Limit – Distance to Target Calculating “Distance to Target” for With Additional Measures: 62.8 (Kyoto Limit) – 22.3 (Annual Allowance Allocation for ETS) = 40.6 Mtonnes of CO 2 e. 41.9 – 40.6 = 1.3 Mtonnes of CO 2 e Mtonnes of CO 2 e With Measures With Additional Measures Average 2008-2012 60.0 59.6 Attributed to ETS 17.8 17.8 Attributed to non-ETS 42.2 41.9 Distance to target 1.6 1.3
  14. 14. Government Purchasing Requirement <ul><li>Government Purchasing Requirement – CO 2 e </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Annual gap 1.3 - 1.6 Mtonnes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total projected gap 6.5 - 8.0 Mtonnes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>National Climate Change Strategy 18.0 Mtonnes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total purchases to date (C&AG report 2009) 8.3 million credits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Possible NESA Returns ~ 5.0 million credits </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Contents <ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Greenhouse Gas Projections 2010-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Kyoto Targets </li></ul><ul><li>2020 Targets </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  16. 16. 2020 Targets – non-ETS Sectors <ul><li>Non-ETS Sectors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry & Commercial </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Waste </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The target for Ireland for non-ETS sectors is to reduce emissions by 20% in 2020 relative to 2005 levels </li></ul><ul><li>This is provisionally calculated as 37.4 Mtonnes of CO 2 e in 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Annual targets between 2013 and 2020 </li></ul>
  17. 17. WM and WAM non-ETS Projection (without carbon sink) WM Distance to Target = 8.8 Mt CO 2 e = 1% below 2005 levels WAM Distance to Target = 4.1 Mt CO 2 e = 11% below 2005 levels
  18. 18. WM and WAM non-ETS Projection (without carbon sink) 2013-2020 Total Exceedance = 4.5 - 30 Mtonnes CO 2 e Total estimated cost = €90m - €600m
  19. 19. 2020 Targets – non-ETS Targets <ul><li>Underachieved emission reductions will have to be achieved in the next year; multiplied by a factor of 1.08 </li></ul><ul><li>Temporary suspension of the Member State's eligibility to use the flexibility mechanisms </li></ul><ul><ul><li>bank and borrow emission budgets (5% max) between years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>transfer overachieved emission reductions between Member States </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>invest in projects in other Member States </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Member States may use credits from outside the EU </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Sectoral share of non-ETS in 2020
  21. 21. Forest Sink 2013-2020 2013-2020 Sum of carbon sink = 33 Mtonnes CO 2 Total Exceedance = 4.5 - 30 Mtonnes CO 2 e
  22. 22. Conclusions <ul><li>Ireland can comply with its Kyoto obligations </li></ul><ul><li>Projected to breach our annual obligations under the EU 2020 target from 2015/2016 onwards </li></ul><ul><li>Total exceedance of 4.5 - 30 Mtonnes CO 2 e over the period 2013-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Role of carbon sinks critically important for Ireland </li></ul>

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