Renewable Energy Development in  Germany (Status and Outlook)   Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Board Member   BEE - German Renew...
BEE - the German Renewable Energy Federation is the umbrellaorganization of renewable energy in Germany, with 25 memberass...
The German Government’s Energy Concept 2010: Targets• Greenhouse Gas Reduction:  minus 40% by 2020, 55% by 2030, 70% by 20...
Renewables in Germany (2011)                              Renewable energy sources as a share of energy supply in         ...
RE Electricity in Germany                                                                       Strong growth due to Feed-...
Electricity from Wind in Germany                            Development of electricity production and installed           ...
Installed Windpower in Germany                                      Development of the number and installed capacity of wi...
PV Capacity and Yield in Germany                      Installed capacity and energy supply from photovoltaic              ...
Biomass for Electricity in Germany                                                          Development of biomass *      ...
The Renewable Energy Act – EEG – • Priority grid access for Renewables                                                    ...
Paradigm-Shift:From traditional baseload power ….   Simulation 2007:   15 % RE (hourly resolution)
… towards a smart Mix with veryhigh shares of Renewable Energy BEE-Scenario 2020: 47 % RE (hourly resolution)             ...
RE Heating & Cooling in Germany                    Contribution of renewable energy sources to heat supply in             ...
Solar Thermal Heating in Germany                   Development of collector area and energy supply of solar thermal       ...
Geothermal Heat in Germany                Development of (near-surface) geothermal energy use * for                       ...
RE for Transport in Germany                                          Development of renewables-based fuel supply          ...
GHG-Reduction from Renewables in Germany (2011)                           Total Greenhouse gas emissions avoided via the u...
Are Renewables expensive?•Energy prices do not tell the truth  New technologies were always heavily subsidised  Globally...
Different cost structure of REand the need for supportHigh (upfront) capital costs but close to zero operating costs(Wind...
Public benefit: Merit order effectprice RE lower electricity prices                                    marginal generation...
2011: 36 billion Euro                       Turnover from RES                                         Investments in the c...
Avoided Fossil Fuel Imports due to Renewable Energybillion Euro                                          Forecast         ...
2011                           Total Greenhouse gas emissions avoided via the use of                                 renew...
Industry:                                                                                         > 500,000 jobs in 2020  ...
Renewable Energies– mature and beneficial•Provide significant contribution to Security of Energy Supply  Wide range of RE...
Thank you for your attention!Reinhardtstraße 18          BEE - German Renewable Energy Federation10117 BerlinFon +49 30 27...
Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
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Renewable Energy Development in Germany / Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes

  1. 1. Renewable Energy Development in Germany (Status and Outlook) Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Board Member BEE - German Renewable Energy Federation Berlin, 7th of November 2012
  2. 2. BEE - the German Renewable Energy Federation is the umbrellaorganization of renewable energy in Germany, with 25 memberassociations and organizations representing 30,000 members,including 5,000 enterprises. Our target: 100 % of renewable energy.
  3. 3. The German Government’s Energy Concept 2010: Targets• Greenhouse Gas Reduction: minus 40% by 2020, 55% by 2030, 70% by 2040, 80-95% by 2050 (compared to 1990 levels)• Share of Renewable Energy in Gross Final Energy Consumption: 18% by 2020, 30% by 2030, 45% by 2040, 60% by 2050• Share of Renewables in Electricity Consumption: 35% by 2020, 50% by 2030, 65% by 2040, 80% by 2050 After Fukushima – complete Phase-out of Nuclear Energy by 2022
  4. 4. Renewables in Germany (2011) Renewable energy sources as a share of energy supply in Germany 40 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 minimum 35.0 1) 35 2009 2010 2011 Targets: 2020 30 25Share in [%] Gross final 20.0 energy 20 consumption 1) 18.0 15 14.0 1) Transport sector 12.2 10.4 10.0 1,2) 10.9 10 7.8 5.6 5 4.3 4.5 3.2 0.9 0 Share of RES in total gross Share of RES in total Share of RES in fuel Share of RES in total final Share of RES in total electricity consumption energy consumption for consumption for road traffic energy consumption primary energy heat in transport sector (2) (electricity, heat, fuels) consumption (3) 1) Sources: Targets of the German Government, Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG); Renewable Energy Sources Heat Act (EEWärmeG), EU-Directive 2009/28/EC; 2) total consumption of engine fuels, excluding fuel in air traffic; 3) calculated using efficiency method; source: Working Group on Energy Balances e.V. (AGEB); RES: Renewable Energy Sources; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional
  5. 5. RE Electricity in Germany Strong growth due to Feed-in tariffs Development of electricity generation from renewable 2012 >25% energy sources in Germany since 1990 2011: 20% 140,000 Hydropower Wind energy EEG: 120,000 Biomass * Photovoltaics January 2009 100,000 EEG: EEG: April 2000 August 2004 80,000[GWh] Amendment to BauGB: November 1997 60,000 StromEinspG: 40,000 January 1991 - March 2000 20,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic share of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 5
  6. 6. Electricity from Wind in Germany Development of electricity production and installed capacity of wind energy plants in Germany 50,000 30,000 Electricity generation [GWh] 29,075 MW 45,000 installed capacity [MW] EEG: EEG: 25,000 40,000 April 2000 August 2004 35,000 20,000 30,000 Amendment to BauGB:[GWh] [MW] 25,000 November 1997 15,000 EEG: 20,000 January 2009 StromEinspG: 10,000 15,000 January 1991 - March 2000 4,489 10,000 2,966 5,000 2,032 1,500 10,509 15,786 18,713 25,509 27,229 30,710 39,713 40,574 38,639 37,793 46,500 909 5,000 5,528 7,550 600 275 100 71 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; 1 TWh = 1 Bill. kWh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; sources: electricity supply 2011according to 50Hertz Transmission, Amprion, TenneT TSO, EnBW Transportnetze; J.P. Molly: "Wind Energy Use in Germany - Status 31.12.2011"; Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and German Wind Energy Association (BWE); BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); as at: March 2012; image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; all figures provisional 6
  7. 7. Installed Windpower in Germany Development of the number and installed capacity of wind energy plants in Germany 30,000 30,000 Installations, cumulative number of plants [-] 29,075 MW cumulative installed capacity [MW] 25,000 25,000 StromEinspG: Amendment to BauGB:Number of plants [-] 20,000 January 1991 - March 2000 November 1997 20,000 EEG: [MW] 15,000 April 2000 15,000 10,000 EEG: EEG: 10,000 6,185 August 2004 January 2009 5,178 4,326 3,528 2,467 5,000 5,000 1,675 1,084 22,297 21,572 20,965 13,739 16,518 20,147 11,415 15,371 17,474 19,344 18,578 7,864 9,351 700 405 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: J.P. Molly: "Wind energy use in Germany, as at 31.12.2011"; Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and German Wind Energy Association (BWE); 1 TWh = 1 Bill. kWh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; all figures provisional 7
  8. 8. PV Capacity and Yield in Germany Installed capacity and energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany 26,000 26,000 Electricity supply [GWh] 2012 – more than 30,000 MWp 24,820 MWp 24,000 24,000 installed capacity [MWp] 22,000 22,000 20,000 20,000 18,000 18,000 16,000 16,000[GWh] [MWp] 14,000 14,000 12,000 12,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 1,282 6,000 6,000 556 4,000 313 4,000 11,683 19,000 162 2,220 3,075 4,420 6,583 76 11 16 26 32 42 64 2,000 2,000 1 2 3 6 8 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; image: BMU / Bernd Müller; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 8
  9. 9. Biomass for Electricity in Germany Development of biomass * use for electricity supply in Germany 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000[GWh] 20,000 15,000 10,000 3,589 3,260 2,277 2,102 2,013 1,875 1,636 5,000 1,558 1,471 1,434 10,077 14,025 18,685 24,281 27,531 30,341 33,866 36,920 4,737 5,207 6,038 8,247 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 9
  10. 10. The Renewable Energy Act – EEG – • Priority grid access for Renewables Regulation / Law installations Money • Each kWh must be purchased and Power remunerated by the utility / grid - EEG - operator (with defined exceptions) Provides for grid • Fixed feed-in tariff paid for 20 years access, sets FIT Utility / TSO • Annual (monthly for PV) degression for new installations (a fixed percentage or a conventional defined mechanism) electricity Feed-in tariff renewable electricity Electricity • Differentiated support according to rates + FIT surcharge technology, size and site quality • Costs are passed on to all electricity consumers (specific exceptions for energy RES-E Electricity intensive industry) Producer consumer • Regular evaluation and amendments
  11. 11. Paradigm-Shift:From traditional baseload power …. Simulation 2007: 15 % RE (hourly resolution)
  12. 12. … towards a smart Mix with veryhigh shares of Renewable Energy BEE-Scenario 2020: 47 % RE (hourly resolution) Peaks at noon Strong and weak wind periods Storage, Import/Export Variable Load  System-Transformation: technically & economically
  13. 13. RE Heating & Cooling in Germany Contribution of renewable energy sources to heat supply in Germany since 1997 2011: 10.4% RES 160,000 Biomass * Solar thermal energy Geothermal energy 140,000 Stable Framework missing  Future growth uncertain 120,000 100,000[GWh] 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Biomass share of RES - heat: 91 % 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic share of waste; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; RES: Renewable Energy Sources; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 16
  14. 14. Solar Thermal Heating in Germany Development of collector area and energy supply of solar thermal installations for heat supply in Germany 6,000 16,000 Energy supply [GWh] Area, cumulative [m²] 14,000 5,000 12,000 4,000 10,000 [1,000 m2][GWh] 3,000 8,000 6,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 280 221 107 169 2,000 1,026 1,261 1,587 1,884 2,144 2,443 2,778 3,218 3,638 4,134 4,733 5,200 5,600 355 440 549 690 848 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat) and ZSW; image: ZSW / Ulrike Zimmer; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 17
  15. 15. Geothermal Heat in Germany Development of (near-surface) geothermal energy use * for heat supply in Germany since 1995 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000[GWh] 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,440 1,440 1,458 1,491 1,532 1,581 1,651 1,741 1,842 1,972 2,156 2,602 3,255 3,962 4,640 5,300 5,980 500 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * Including Air/Water-, Water/Water- and Brine/Water- Heat Pumps; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat) and ZSW; image: ZSW / Ulrike Zimmer; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 18
  16. 16. RE for Transport in Germany Development of renewables-based fuel supply in Germany since 1991 50,000 Bioethanol New and focused policies needed 45,000 Vegetable oil 40,000 Biodiesel 35,000 30,000[GWh] 25,000 20,000 Significant growth 2004 – 2007 / stagnation since then 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Vegetable oil as a part of biogenic fuels used since 1992, Bioethanol since 2004; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kWh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Dieter Böhme; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 19
  17. 17. GHG-Reduction from Renewables in Germany (2011) Total Greenhouse gas emissions avoided via the use of renewable energy sources in Germany 2011 Electricity 15.5 34.2 24.7 12.987.3 million t 1.3 Heat 35.437.2 million t Total GHG emissions avoided 2011 (electricity/heat/transport): 0.5 approx. 129 million t CO2 equiv., incl. GHG emissions avoided due to electricity paid for under the EEG: Biofuels 4.8 approx. 70 million t CO2 equiv. 4.8 million t 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 GHG avoidance [million t CO2 equiv.] Hydropower Wind energy Biomass Photovoltaics Geothermal energy Solar thermal energy Biofuels GHG: Greenhouse gas; deviations in the totals are due to rounding; geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities of electricity produced; source: Federal Environment Agency (UBA) according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: H.G. Oed; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 20
  18. 18. Are Renewables expensive?•Energy prices do not tell the truth  New technologies were always heavily subsidised  Globally, fossil & nuclear receive 6 times the subsidies of RE  Grid costs are not properly attributed to fossil & nuclear energy•Most externalities are not included in energy prices  Impact of fossil on environment, health, society not included  Nuclear risks (incl. Waste!) are largely borne by public money  No realistic price of carbon (despite ETS)•There are various competitive disadvantages for Renewables  Still: Costs for Renewables are decreasing rapidly  Wind is already competitive (even in disturbed markets)  Solar PV is reaching grid parity AND: Costs for fossil & nuclear are increasing 21
  19. 19. Different cost structure of REand the need for supportHigh (upfront) capital costs but close to zero operating costs(Wind, PV ...) Distributed production and consumption: different gridstructureFlexible system needed: smart grids, system services, storage ....For development and deployment of a broad range of renewableNeed to bridge the gap between today’s and tomorrow’s energy• remove remaining economic and administrative barriers,• compensate for structural and competitive disadvantages• accelerate market penetration and up-scaling of various RE,• foster technology development and increased deployment,• trigger economies of scale and resulting cost reduction. 22
  20. 20. Public benefit: Merit order effectprice RE lower electricity prices marginal generation cost RE substitute most expensive power plant Electricity produced 23
  21. 21. 2011: 36 billion Euro Turnover from RES Investments in the construction of renewable energy facilities in Germany since 2004 plus 13.1 for O&M 30 Investments in RES 27.8 Investments in the electricity sector (RES) 25 22.9 25.0 20.1Investments [Bill. Euro] 20 20.1 16.7 15 14.0 16.5 12.9 10.6 12.8 10 8.8 10.8 9.2 8.4 5 6.8 RES investment predominantly for electricity 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to the Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Wuerttemberg (ZSW); 2004 and 2005 estimated; image: BMU / Dieter Böhme; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 24
  22. 22. Avoided Fossil Fuel Imports due to Renewable Energybillion Euro Forecast electricity heating transportSource:
  23. 23. 2011 Total Greenhouse gas emissions avoided via the use of renewable energy sources in Germany 2011 Electricity 15.5 34.2 24.7 12.987.3 million t 1.3 Heat 35.437.2 million t Total GHG emissions avoided 2011 (electricity/heat/transport): 0.5 approx. 129 million t CO2 equiv., incl. GHG emissions avoided due to electricity paid for under the EEG: Biofuels 4.8 approx. 70 million t CO2 equiv. 4.8 million t 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 GHG avoidance [million t CO2 equiv.] Hydropower Wind energy Biomass Photovoltaics Geothermal energy Solar thermal energy Biofuels GHG: Greenhouse gas; deviations in the totals are due to rounding; geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities of electricity produced; source: Federal Environment Agency (UBA) according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: H.G. Oed; as at: March 2012; all figures provisional 26
  24. 24. Industry: > 500,000 jobs in 2020 Further increasing, problems for PV manufacturers Jobs in the renewable energy sources sector in Germany 96,100 102,100 Wind energy 85,700 63,900 122,000 128,000 Biomass 119,500 56,800 120,900 80,600 Solar energy 49,200 25,100 7,600 7,800 Hydropower 8,100 Increase: approx. 129 % 9,500 13,300 14,500Geothermal energy 10,300 1,800 160,500 277,300 339,500 367,400 Publicly funded 7,500 6,500 jobs jobs jobs jobs research / administration 4,500 3,400 2004 2007 2009 2010 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Figures for 2009 and 2010 are provisional estimate; deviations in totals are due to rounding;Source: O’Sullivan/Edler/van Mark/Nieder/Lehr: "Bruttobeschäftigung durch erneuerbare Energien im Jahr 20010 – eine erste Abschätzung", as at: March 2011; interim report of research project „Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt“; image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transit 27
  25. 25. Renewable Energies– mature and beneficial•Provide significant contribution to Security of Energy Supply  Wide range of RE technologies are proven and mature  A mix of different technologies and resources is available•Renewables reduce Dependency on Energy Imports  RES are domestic energy sources•Renewables mitigate the risks of Price Volatility of Fossil Fuels  Wind, solar and geothermal energy are free  RE-technologies have high cost decreases•Renewables are reliable technologies against Climate Change  RES are (nearly) carbon free or carbon neutral 28
  26. 26. Thank you for your attention!Reinhardtstraße 18 BEE - German Renewable Energy Federation10117 BerlinFon +49 30 275 81 70  0Fax +49 30 275 81 70  20rainer.hinrichs@bee-ev.dewww.bee-ev.de

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