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IEA Energy Technology Model


 Energy Technology Perspectives 2010




                                       © OECD/IEA - 2011
Energy Technology
                         Perspectives project
   ENERGY                 IEA flagship project on energy
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES               technology, complementing the
   2010
  Scenarios &
                           WEO
                          Provides impartial advice to
   Strategies
    to 2050

                           decision makers on energy
                           technology policy
                          Main output is Energy Technology
                           Perspectives (ETP) publication –
                           released every two years
                          Input to high-level inter-
                           governmental discussions
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
ETP Scenarios
                          Baseline scenario:
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
                            Following the World Energy Outlook 2009
PERSPECTIVES                 Reference Scenario
   2010
                            World GDP grows by factor 2.75 between
  Scenarios &
   Strategies                2007 and 2050
    to 2050
                            Energy prices: Oil USD 120/bbl in 2050, Coal
                             USD 115/tonne
                          BLUE scenario:
                            50% reduction of energy related CO2
                             emissions by 2050 compared to 2005
                            Options with marginal reductions of up to USD
                             175/t CO2 are needed
                            Due to uncertainties number of variants being
                             considered

     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Key messages from scenarios

                          The Baseline scenario is unsustainable
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
                             – environmentally, economically,
PERSPECTIVES                 socially
   2010
                            Widespread deployment of low carbon
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
                             technologies (costs < USD 175/tCO2)
    to 2050                  needed to halve CO2 emissions by 2050
                            Improved energy efficiency and
                             decarbonising electricity are key
                            New technologies needed after 2030
                            Shares of biomass and electricity
                             increase
                            Urgent action required – emissions
                             must peak by around 2020
                            Non-OECD countries also need to cut
                             emissions below current levels
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
World: CO2 emissions

                                     60
   ENERGY

                            Gt CO2
TECHNOLOGY
                                     50
PERSPECTIVES                                                                     Other
   2010
                                     40                                          Buildings
  Scenarios &                                                                    Transport
   Strategies                        30
    to 2050                                                                      Industry
                                     20                                          Other transformation
                                                                                 Power generation
                                     10

                                     0
                                          2007   2030      2050   2030    2050

                                                    Baseline        BLUE Map




                         • Global emissions double by 2050 in Baseline
                         • 50% reduction in 2050 on 2005 levels in BLUE, equivalent
                           to 75% reduction from 2050 Baseline
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Key technologies for reducing global CO2
                         emissions under the BLUE Map scenario

   ENERGY
                                   60
TECHNOLOGY
                          Gt CO2
                                                              Baseline emissions 57 Gt                     CCS 19%
PERSPECTIVES                       55

   2010                            50                                                                      Renewables 17%
                                   45
  Scenarios &
                                                                                                           Nuclear 6%
   Strategies                      40
    to 2050
                                   35
                                                                                                           Power generation efficiency and
                                   30                                                                      fuel switching 5%

                                   25                                                                      End-use fuel switching 15%

                                   20
                                                                                                           End-use fuel and electricity
                                   15                                                                      efficiency 38%
                                                             BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
                                   10

                                    5
                                            WEO 2009 450 ppm case               ETP2010 analysis
                                    0
                                     2010   2015   2020     2025    2030    2035    2040     2045   2050




                               A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce
                                     energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Modelling the Buildings Sector


   ENERGY
                          Model for buildings sector
TECHNOLOGY                   developed for ETP 2006
PERSPECTIVES
   2010                     Regional model, but model
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
                             large countries separately
    to 2050
                            Bottom-up approach,
                             focusing on end-uses,
                             includes stock models
                            Very data intensive
                            Continuously working to
                             improve understanding of
                             global building stock and
                             energy consumption by end-
                             use
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Energy consumption by fuel
                         and by scenario
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
   2010
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
    to 2050




                            Energy consumption in the building sector is 5%
                         higher in 2050 than in 2007 in the BLUE Map Scenario.
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Energy consumption by fuel, by
                         scenario and region
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
   2010
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
    to 2050




                         OECD regions reduce energy consumption below 2007
                              levels in the BLUE Map scenario by 2050.
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Energy savings by sector and
                         by end use, 2050
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
   2010
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
    to 2050




                          Two-thirds of the energy savings in the BLUE map
                             scenario come from the residential sector.
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
BLUE Map results for Buildings:
                         CO2 emissions
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
   2010
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
    to 2050




                           In the BLUE Map scenario, buildings sector CO2
                            emissions in 2050 are 83% lower than in the
     © OECD/IEA - 2011                   Baseline scenario.
BLUE Map results for Buildings:
                         CO2 emissions
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
   2010
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
    to 2050




                           Improvements in the building shell and energy
                          savings in electrical end-uses dominate total CO2
     © OECD/IEA - 2011          reductions in the BLUE Map scenario.
Key Technologies for the
                         Buildings Sector in BLUE Map
                          Tighter building standards and codes
   ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
                             for new residential and commercial
PERSPECTIVES                 buildings
   2010
                            Large-scale refurbishment of residential
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
                             buildings in the OECD
    to 2050
                            Highly efficient heating, cooling and
                             ventilation systems
                            Improved lighting efficiency
                            Improved appliance efficiency
                            The widespread deployment of CO2-free
                             technologies. Including the widespread
                             deployment of solar thermal, bioenergy,
                             heat pumps, and fuel cell CHP.
                            Cross-cutting technologies: thermal
                             energy storage and importance of
                             future proofing for smart grid
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Key Messages
                          Baseline scenario: CO2 emissions grow from
   ENERGY                  8.1 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 to 15.2 Gt CO2 in
TECHNOLOGY                 2050
PERSPECTIVES
   2010                   BLUE Map scenario reduces this by 83% in 2050
                             Decarbonisation of electricity reduces emissions by
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
                              6.8 Gt CO2)
    to 2050               Buildings are the key to low-cost CO2 abatement
                           scenarios
                             Energy efficiency and switch to low- and zero-carbon
                              technologies reduces emissions by 5.8 Gt CO2
                          Very different challenges in OECD and non-
                           OECD
                          Most of the technology solutions are available
                           today and are generally mature, but more R&D
                           needed
                          However, uptake is far from optimal from an
                           economic or environmental perspective
                          Strong policy action is required

     © OECD/IEA - 2011
Next steps

   ENERGY                 Model update – ETP 2012
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES                Expand regional coverage of the
   2010
                             buildings sector
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
    to 2050
                            Expand the time horizon to 2075
                            Increase technological specificities
                               E.g. include hydrogen fuel-cell; solar
                                space cooling; etc.
                            Refine stock accounting models
                            Better tracking of appliance stock
                            Update data with most up-to-date
                             information
                               Including the newly released World
                                Energy Outlook
     © OECD/IEA - 2011
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
   2010
  Scenarios &
   Strategies
    to 2050
                         Thank you




     © OECD/IEA - 2011

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IEA-Energy Technology Model

  • 1. IEA Energy Technology Model Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 2. Energy Technology Perspectives project ENERGY  IEA flagship project on energy TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES technology, complementing the 2010 Scenarios & WEO  Provides impartial advice to Strategies to 2050 decision makers on energy technology policy  Main output is Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) publication – released every two years  Input to high-level inter- governmental discussions © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 3. ETP Scenarios  Baseline scenario: ENERGY TECHNOLOGY  Following the World Energy Outlook 2009 PERSPECTIVES Reference Scenario 2010  World GDP grows by factor 2.75 between Scenarios & Strategies 2007 and 2050 to 2050  Energy prices: Oil USD 120/bbl in 2050, Coal USD 115/tonne  BLUE scenario:  50% reduction of energy related CO2 emissions by 2050 compared to 2005  Options with marginal reductions of up to USD 175/t CO2 are needed  Due to uncertainties number of variants being considered © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 4. Key messages from scenarios  The Baseline scenario is unsustainable ENERGY TECHNOLOGY – environmentally, economically, PERSPECTIVES socially 2010  Widespread deployment of low carbon Scenarios & Strategies technologies (costs < USD 175/tCO2) to 2050 needed to halve CO2 emissions by 2050  Improved energy efficiency and decarbonising electricity are key  New technologies needed after 2030  Shares of biomass and electricity increase  Urgent action required – emissions must peak by around 2020  Non-OECD countries also need to cut emissions below current levels © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 5. World: CO2 emissions 60 ENERGY Gt CO2 TECHNOLOGY 50 PERSPECTIVES Other 2010 40 Buildings Scenarios & Transport Strategies 30 to 2050 Industry 20 Other transformation Power generation 10 0 2007 2030 2050 2030 2050 Baseline BLUE Map • Global emissions double by 2050 in Baseline • 50% reduction in 2050 on 2005 levels in BLUE, equivalent to 75% reduction from 2050 Baseline © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 6. Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions under the BLUE Map scenario ENERGY 60 TECHNOLOGY Gt CO2 Baseline emissions 57 Gt CCS 19% PERSPECTIVES 55 2010 50 Renewables 17% 45 Scenarios & Nuclear 6% Strategies 40 to 2050 35 Power generation efficiency and 30 fuel switching 5% 25 End-use fuel switching 15% 20 End-use fuel and electricity 15 efficiency 38% BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt 10 5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 7. Modelling the Buildings Sector ENERGY  Model for buildings sector TECHNOLOGY developed for ETP 2006 PERSPECTIVES 2010  Regional model, but model Scenarios & Strategies large countries separately to 2050  Bottom-up approach, focusing on end-uses, includes stock models  Very data intensive  Continuously working to improve understanding of global building stock and energy consumption by end- use © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 8. Energy consumption by fuel and by scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Energy consumption in the building sector is 5% higher in 2050 than in 2007 in the BLUE Map Scenario. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 9. Energy consumption by fuel, by scenario and region ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 OECD regions reduce energy consumption below 2007 levels in the BLUE Map scenario by 2050. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 10. Energy savings by sector and by end use, 2050 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Two-thirds of the energy savings in the BLUE map scenario come from the residential sector. © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 11. BLUE Map results for Buildings: CO2 emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 In the BLUE Map scenario, buildings sector CO2 emissions in 2050 are 83% lower than in the © OECD/IEA - 2011 Baseline scenario.
  • 12. BLUE Map results for Buildings: CO2 emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Improvements in the building shell and energy savings in electrical end-uses dominate total CO2 © OECD/IEA - 2011 reductions in the BLUE Map scenario.
  • 13. Key Technologies for the Buildings Sector in BLUE Map  Tighter building standards and codes ENERGY TECHNOLOGY for new residential and commercial PERSPECTIVES buildings 2010  Large-scale refurbishment of residential Scenarios & Strategies buildings in the OECD to 2050  Highly efficient heating, cooling and ventilation systems  Improved lighting efficiency  Improved appliance efficiency  The widespread deployment of CO2-free technologies. Including the widespread deployment of solar thermal, bioenergy, heat pumps, and fuel cell CHP.  Cross-cutting technologies: thermal energy storage and importance of future proofing for smart grid © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 14. Key Messages  Baseline scenario: CO2 emissions grow from ENERGY 8.1 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 to 15.2 Gt CO2 in TECHNOLOGY 2050 PERSPECTIVES 2010  BLUE Map scenario reduces this by 83% in 2050  Decarbonisation of electricity reduces emissions by Scenarios & Strategies 6.8 Gt CO2) to 2050  Buildings are the key to low-cost CO2 abatement scenarios  Energy efficiency and switch to low- and zero-carbon technologies reduces emissions by 5.8 Gt CO2  Very different challenges in OECD and non- OECD  Most of the technology solutions are available today and are generally mature, but more R&D needed  However, uptake is far from optimal from an economic or environmental perspective  Strong policy action is required © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 15. Next steps ENERGY  Model update – ETP 2012 TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES  Expand regional coverage of the 2010 buildings sector Scenarios & Strategies to 2050  Expand the time horizon to 2075  Increase technological specificities  E.g. include hydrogen fuel-cell; solar space cooling; etc.  Refine stock accounting models  Better tracking of appliance stock  Update data with most up-to-date information  Including the newly released World Energy Outlook © OECD/IEA - 2011
  • 16. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2010 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Thank you © OECD/IEA - 2011