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Climate change and time traps …andwhat to doDisclaimer: not necessarily theviews of the Welsh Government
Time trap 1: environmental inertia
IPCC emissions scenarios                   Modelled warming                   Source: Hadley Centre
Time trap 2: infrastructure upgrade
Time trap 3: innovation
Toyota hybrid sales            800Thousands            700            600            500            400            300    ...
Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid           10.0Millions            9.0            8.0            7.0            ...
Time trap 4: changing human behaviour
Smoking prevalence               All > age 16 (Britain)504540353025201510 5 0 1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   20...
Time trap 5: economic expectations
Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.01.21.00.80.60.4                                                           ...
Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.01.21.00.8         2.4% per person0.6         per year0.40.20.0  1950   196...
Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.08.07.06.05.04.0                                                           ...
GDP growth has huge GHG increase potentialCO2 emissions per capita (tonnes/year)                                          ...
Most important issues facing Britain100 90                                  Pollution / environment 80 70 60      Ozone   ...
Most important issues facing Britain100 90 80                              Unemployment 70                                ...
Non-negotiable?  Living within ecological limits is the non negotiable basis for  our social and economic development  Jon...
The negotiation
Time trap 6: price expectations
Oil price US$/barrel Brent crude160140120100 80 60 40 20 0      1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   20...
Carbon price expectations       Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2           EU ETS carbon price 300 250 200 150 100  50   0   2...
Part 2: What to do about it?
What to do 1: just stop it!
Stop it! The 2oC commitment…    CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C.                          ...
What to do 2: form clubs
20 countries - 80% emissions Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review
Concentration in innovation investment                           Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007      100...
What to do 3: switch to policies & measures
What to do 4: pricing not quantities                                Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0 16.0 14.0           • ...
What to do 5: deals•   Nuclear fuel cycle management•   LNG infrastructure for China•   Forest and sink protection•   Grid...
What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’
What to do 7: innovation strategy                                                                                      Ene...
What to do 8: emphasise adaptation
Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation?    Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009
Anticipate harmful mal-adaptations
What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge
What to do 10: future proofing
Six time traps1. Environmental response2. Infrastructure3. Innovation4. Human behaviour                            Thank y...
Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it
Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it
Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it
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Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it

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This is a longer version of the presentation I gave at TED in Cardiff in 2010. This was done for Imperial College

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Why time complicates climate change - and what to do about it

  1. 1. Climate change and time traps …andwhat to doDisclaimer: not necessarily theviews of the Welsh Government
  2. 2. Time trap 1: environmental inertia
  3. 3. IPCC emissions scenarios Modelled warming Source: Hadley Centre
  4. 4. Time trap 2: infrastructure upgrade
  5. 5. Time trap 3: innovation
  6. 6. Toyota hybrid sales 800Thousands 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  7. 7. Toyota total sales - hybrid and non-hybrid 10.0Millions 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  8. 8. Time trap 4: changing human behaviour
  9. 9. Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain)504540353025201510 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  10. 10. Time trap 5: economic expectations
  11. 11. Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.01.21.00.80.60.4 10x0.20.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  12. 12. Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.01.21.00.8 2.4% per person0.6 per year0.40.20.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  13. 13. Gross World Product - US$ relative to 2010 = 1.08.07.06.05.04.0 7x3.02.01.00.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
  14. 14. GDP growth has huge GHG increase potentialCO2 emissions per capita (tonnes/year) GDP per capita current US$ World Bank – World Development Indicators . Visualisation by Google public data explorer
  15. 15. Most important issues facing Britain100 90 Pollution / environment 80 70 60 Ozone hole 50 Peak concern on climate 40 change 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
  16. 16. Most important issues facing Britain100 90 80 Unemployment 70 Economy 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
  17. 17. Non-negotiable? Living within ecological limits is the non negotiable basis for our social and economic development Jonathan Porritt
  18. 18. The negotiation
  19. 19. Time trap 6: price expectations
  20. 20. Oil price US$/barrel Brent crude160140120100 80 60 40 20 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  21. 21. Carbon price expectations Shadow cost of carbon £/tCO2 EU ETS carbon price 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  22. 22. Part 2: What to do about it?
  23. 23. What to do 1: just stop it!
  24. 24. Stop it! The 2oC commitment… CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C. Developing countries peak in 2020 and fall at 8% per year after Developed countries peak in 2010 and fall at 10% per year after Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44
  25. 25. What to do 2: form clubs
  26. 26. 20 countries - 80% emissions Source: Garnaut Climate Change Review
  27. 27. Concentration in innovation investment Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007 100% Percentage share of global total 80 60 40 20 0 Japan China France Korea Brazil Canada United United India Germany Kingdom Russia StatesSource: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data
  28. 28. What to do 3: switch to policies & measures
  29. 29. What to do 4: pricing not quantities Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0 16.0 14.0 • Globally co-ordinated carbon tax • Nationally collected 12.0 • Predictably rising • Very long term 10.0 • No shocks 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
  30. 30. What to do 5: deals• Nuclear fuel cycle management• LNG infrastructure for China• Forest and sink protection• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators• Product and building energy efficiency standards• Water trading and river basin management• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel• Etc etc…
  31. 31. What to do 6: focus on ‘no regrets’
  32. 32. What to do 7: innovation strategy Energy storage density Hydrogen GasolineEnergy density by weight (watt hours / kg) 10,000 Ethanol CNG Bio-diesel Liquid fuels Diesel Gaseous fuels 1,000 Hydrogen absorbing alloy Batteries 100 Lithium-ion Nickel metal 10 Lead 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre) Source: Toyota
  33. 33. What to do 8: emphasise adaptation
  34. 34. Misallocation: low carbon vs adaptation? Source: Policy Exchange, Delivering 21st Infrastructure for Britain, 2009
  35. 35. Anticipate harmful mal-adaptations
  36. 36. What to do 9: the geoengineering hedge
  37. 37. What to do 10: future proofing
  38. 38. Six time traps1. Environmental response2. Infrastructure3. Innovation4. Human behaviour Thank you5. Economic expectations6. Price signalsWhat to do? Ten thoughts…1. Stop it!2. Clubs3. Policies & measures4. Global carbon price5. Deals6. No-regrets7. Innovation8. Adaptation9. Geoengineering hedge10. Future proofing

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