Global and national implications of alternative metrics - Reisinger et al
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Global and national implications of alternative metrics - Reisinger et al
- 1. Global and National Mitigation Costs Under Alternative Metrics Andy Reisinger1, Adolf Stroombergen2, Oscar van Vliet3, Petr Havlík3 1 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 2 Infometrics Consulting 3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 1
- 2. In a nutshell 100-year GWPs are not a cost-effective way of comparing GHGs Alternative bio-physical metrics address some problems of GWPs – but few studies have explored the cost and climate policy implications if such metrics were to replace GWPs. 1. Determine the global cost-effectiveness of different metrics under a variety of other assumptions 100-year GTPs Time-dependent GTPs (focused on 2100) Exclusion of agricultural non-CO2 emissions 2. Evaluate economic implications for New Zealand of alternative metrics, for the years 2020 / 2050 Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 2
- 3. Emissions paths under alternative metrics using MESSAGE Fixed 100-year GTPs lead to less CH4 mitigation Time-dependent GTPs lead to more CH4 mitigation by 2100 Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 3
- 4. Global net costsresults MESSAGE 450ppm CH4 mitigation determines atmospheric space for CO2 emissions and hence total mitigation costs 550ppm Leading Partners in Science Global agricultural CH4 emission pathways 4
- 5. no improvement in rapid improvement in no improvement in rapid improvement in agricultural mitigation agricultural mitigation NPV mitigation cost (US$ 2005 billion) agricultural mitigation agricultural mitigation potential potential 250 5000 potential potential 200 150 4000 NPV mitigation cost (US$ 2005 billion) 100 50 3000 0 agriculture CH4 2010 - 2050 2000 Global discounted net N2O 2010 - 2050 present value mitigation CH4 2050 - 2100 N2O 2050 - 2100 costs (2010-2100) agriculture 1000 Example for 550ppm industry CO2-eq stabilisation waste forestry energy Leading Partners in Science 0 Global agricultural CH4 emission pathways GWP GTP GTP (fixed) (time-dep.) GWP GTP GTP (fixed) (time-dep.) 5
- 6. Global cost-effectiveness of metrics • Fixed GTPs result in higher CO2 prices and higher total mitigation costs than GWPs • Time-dependent GTPs (focusing on year 2100) result in lower CO2 prices and lower total mitigation costs than GWPs, but escalating CH4 prices raise question about practical feasibility • Assumptions about agriculture mitigation potential have a larger effect on global costs than alternative metrics • Different long-term stabilisation targets have a much larger effect on global costs than alternative metrics • Excluding agriculture globally is by far the most costly ‘metric’ Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 6
- 7. National-level implications for New Zealand Agricultural non-CO2 emissions are major source • 47% of gross GHG emissions (100-year GWPs, UNFCCC) • 27% of gross GHG emissions (100-year GTPs) NZ has accepted emissions targets (responsibility targets) • -10 to -20% by 2020, and -50% by 2050, relative to 1990 and contingent on comprehensive international agreement Different metrics would affect NZ through • Revised AAUs and gross future emissions • Different GHG prices in international carbon market • Different commodity prices if world prices all emissions • ... and potentially different emissions reduction targets Need nested models to reflect multiple links !!! Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 7
- 8. MAGICC version 6 Calculates exchange rates between CO2 and non- Model CO2 gases, for alternative bio-physical metrics and policy choices for treatment of agriculture. Linkages Calibrated to complex coupled climate models non-CO2 metrics MESSAGE Cost-effective multi-gas emissions pathways and mitigation costs over the 21st century to meet a pre- determined stabilisation target in the year 2100 GHG prices and bioenergy demands global CO2 prices GLOBIOM used in emissions Changes in agricultural production and commodity price indices up to 2050, based on spatially trading explicit modelling of agricultural products and trade Commodity price index metrics ESSAM to account for Calculates changes in economic activity in New non-CO2 gases Zealand in 2020 and 2050, relative to ‘no climate Leading Partners in Science in emissions policy’, for prescribed economy-wide emissions targets targets expressed in percentage relative to 1990.
- 9. National-level implications for New Zealand • metrics for emissions targets • carbon prices • commodity price index • policy assumptions Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 9
- 10. National-level implications for New Zealand Competing effect of metrics. Fixed 100-year GTPs would: • Reduce burden of hard-to-mitigate non-CO2 gases • Raise global carbon prices and bioenergy demand • Reduce increase in livestock commodity price index Net effect of metrics on NZ depends on policy setting • GTPs mute economic effects of mitigation on New Zealand If NZ benefits, it would benefit more under GWPs than GTPs If NZ incurs costs, costs would be greater under GWPs than GTPs • Benefits from additional enteric CH4 abatement technologies would be greater under GWPs than under (fixed 100-year) GTPs • NZ is better off if everybody mitigates agricultural emission than if nobody does, despite having large fractional ag emissions itself Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 10
- 11. Conclusions GWPs are not the most cost-effective metric Fixed 100-year GTPs are even less cost-effective, but time-dependent GTPs would be more cost-effective Cost implications of alternative metrics are smaller than alternative assumptions about future agricultural mitigation potential, and much smaller than choices of long-term target Metrics do matter for New Zealand net mitigation costs, but alternative policy scenarios matter much more; GTPs would mute both positive and negative effects on NZ Further work might want to explore the implications of metrics for the political economy of sectoral and regional participation in global climate agreements and their robustness/durability Leading Partners in Science Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 19 OCTOBER 2011 | 11