Tonn energy greenexpo

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Tonn energy greenexpo

  1. 1. Case Study : How Can Ireland Become The Prime Mover In Wave Energy? Green Energy Exp May, 2010 Harvey Appelbe © Vattenfall AB
  2. 2. Case study: Tonn Energy • Background: who are we? • Day 1: what we expected? • Year 1: what happened • Year 2: what is happening • Year ?: what could happen © Vattenfall AB 2
  3. 3. Background: Who are Vattenfall? Europe’s main electricity companies European electricity generation TWh Net sales, EUR billions 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 170 TWh €18B 10 0 © Vattenfall AB AB 29
  4. 4. Background: Who are Vattenfall? Five strategic ambitions Number One for Number One for the Environment the Customer Employer Profitable of Choice Growth Benchmark for the Industry © Vattenfall AB AB 11
  5. 5. Background: Who are Vattenfall? Number One for the Environment A substantial contribution to sustainable development is essential for trust and for licence to operate and grow. • New low-emitting energy generation • Increased efficiency of existing production • R&D to reduce CO2 emissions and increase renewable energy • Promotion of global and market-oriented climate solutions © Vattenfall AB AB 13
  6. 6. Background: Who are Vattenfall? Profitable Growth Size carries strategic advantages. Profitable growth is vital for competitiveness and sustained economic value. • Organic expansion – construction of new plants, upgrading and renewal of existing plants • Acquisitions in priority markets – the UK, the Benelux countries, France and Central Europe • Business development – focus on efficient use of energy and biomass fuels © Vattenfall AB AB 14
  7. 7. Background: Who are Vattenfall? Making electricity clean Strategic direction over the coming decades • Reducing environmental impact from all operations • Emphasising the important role of electricity in the future sustainable society Commitment to customers and society • Operations climate-neutral by 2050 (by 2030 for the Nordic operations) • 50 per cent reduction in emissions from own operations by 2030 compared with 1990 Climate goals integrated in business strategy • Long-term profitable growth needed to realise vision © Vattenfall AB AB 18
  8. 8. Background: Why Ocean Energy? Expanding generation, expanding renewables 2008 2030 170 TWh 15% Coal 23,1 CCS 40% 44,1 Coal Renewables 20% Gas 30,4 Nuclear 2,4 5% 20% Coal Gas Nuclear Coal CCS Renewables © Vattenfall AB 8
  9. 9. Background: Why Ocean Energy? Vattenfall’s CO2 emissions roadmap Vattenfall’s target Reduce emissions by 50% - Technology? from 1990 to 2030 - Politics? - Economy? © Vattenfall AB 9
  10. 10. Background: Why Ocean Energy? 2030 – 2050: 100% emission neutral Vattenfall wants to grow and intends to be climate neutral in 2050: “making electricity clean” Options include ... • Nuclear power; where it is accepted • Efficient and smart energy consumption • Smart grids that can handle renewable generation ...and lots of new renewable energy ... • Offshore Wind Power • CCS-technology • Ocean Energy © Vattenfall AB 10
  11. 11. Background: Why Ocean Energy? Global Ocean Energy (Winter) © Vattenfall AB 11
  12. 12. Background: Why Ocean Energy? Ocean Energy projects Previous or existing device Planned future scheme © Vattenfall AB 12
  13. 13. Background: The Ocean Energy Program Vattenfall’s Ocean Energy Program (T) Technology & Grid (L) Localisation & Environm. Dr. Helmar Rendez (P) Pilote projects Owner (S) Site development Annika Andersson (L) Gunilla Andrée (L) Dr. Lars Strömberg Steering Magnus Andersson (T/P/S) Göran Lundgren Fredrik Carlsson (T) committé Katarina Eriksson (L) Erik Fröberg (P/T) Anders Johnsson (P) Jonas Gidlund (T/P/S) Administration & Program Pehr Hjalmarsson (P) Ulf Tisell Communication Management Tor Isdal (S) Thommy Karlsson (P) Lars Uggla Niclas Christoffersson (T/P/S) Birgitta Berglöw Dean McGowan (L) Thomas Olsson (L) Technology & Localisation & Pilot Site Jonas Persson (T) Daniel Salomonsson (T) grid environment projects development Erik Segergren (T/S) Marco Sipi (P) Per Holmberg Kristin Andersen José Silva Urban Henfridsson Erik Sparrevik (L/P) Oskar Danielsson Lovisa Stenberg (T) Vattenfall competence pool Kerstin Strandanger (T/P/S) Kristian Toresson (T/S) Kjell Wester (L) © Vattenfall AB 13
  14. 14. Background: The Ocean Energy Program Cheese © Vattenfall AB 14
  15. 15. To help protect y our priv acy , PowerPoint prev ented this external picture from being automatically downloaded. To download and display this picture, click Options in the Message Bar, and then click Enable external content. Background: The Ocean Energy Program Learning curve Pilot Phase Demo Phase Commercial Phase Grid Connected Profitable 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 €ct/kWh 30 25 Scotland Ireland 20 Vattenfall Estimation 15 Vattenfall 10 Estimation Sweden 5 * Carbon Trust 2006, 10-15 % learning rate 0 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 MW © Vattenfall AB 15
  16. 16. Background: The Ocean Energy Program Learning curve Pilot Phase Demo Phase Commercial Phase Grid Connected Profitable 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 €ct/kWh 30 25 Scotland Ireland 20 Vattenfall Estimation 15 Vattenfall 10 Estimation Sweden 5 * Carbon Trust 2006, 0 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 MW 10-15 % learning rate 2000 2250 MW © Vattenfall AB 16
  17. 17. Background: The Ocean Energy Program The work Environmental impact certainty Operation in real marine climate. Hard to predict the economics (incl O&M) Transmission grid capacity and upgrade. Subsea super grid to be developed. Public and local appetite © Vattenfall AB 17
  18. 18. Background: The Ocean Energy Program Early days. Back several horses. Wavebob Seabased Pelamis © Vattenfall AB 18
  19. 19. Background: The Ocean Energy Program The race • Do pilot tests • Demonstrations Commercial • Establish sites • Site Development wave and tidal • Increase know-how farms 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wavebob Vattenfall - Proof of concept Technology / technologies proved 10-20 MW per plant to gain best economical result Pelamis 100-200 MW 100-200 MW Pilot tests Demonstrations Seabased Making use of national On markets with the best market support schemes commercial conditions © Vattenfall AB 19
  20. 20. Background: Tonn Energy Tonn Energy is Ireland in this race. • Do pilot tests • Demonstrations Commercial • Establish sites • Site Development wave and tidal • Increase know-how farms 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wavebob Investigate Technology / technologies proved Proof of concept array to gain best economical result Prepare Learn more Learn Pelamis 100-200 MW 100-200 MW Pilot tests Demonstrations Seabased Making use of national On markets with the best market support schemes commercial conditions © Vattenfall AB 20
  21. 21. Day 1: What we expected Criteria • Scalable Technology • Wave climate • ”Full load hours” • Technical availability • Incentives • Open for business • O&M strategy © Vattenfall AB 21
  22. 22. Day 1: What we expected Criteria • Scalable Technology • Wave climate • ”Full load hours” • Technical availability • Incentives • Open for business • O&M strategy © Vattenfall AB 22
  23. 23. Day 1: What we expected Criteria • Scalable Technology • Wave climate • ”Full load hours” • Technical availability • Incentives • Open for business Mullaghnmore Head, Ireland: 1 December 2007 14m waves recorded at wave bouys. • O&M strategy © Vattenfall AB 23
  24. 24. © Vattenfall AB
  25. 25. Day 1: What we expected Criteria • Scalable Technology Wavebob • Wave climate 50 KW/m wave • ”Full load hours” 3000 – 5000 hours • Technical availability 60 – 80% • Incentives 220 €/MWh • Open for business • O&M strategy © Vattenfall AB 25
  26. 26. Day 1: What we expected Criteria • Scalable Technology Wavebob • Wave climate 50 KW/m wave • ”Full load hours” 3000 – 5000 hours • Technical availability 60 – 80% • Incentives 220 €/MWh • Open for business OE Strategy • O&M strategy © Vattenfall AB 26
  27. 27. Day 1: What we expected Criteria • Scalable Technology Wavebob • Wave climate 50 KW/m wave • ”Full load hours” 3000 – 5000 hours • Technical availability 60 – 80% • Incentives 220 €/MWh • Open for business OE Strategy • O&M strategy ?! © Vattenfall AB 27
  28. 28. Day 1: What we expected Setup Energy - Groups as on wave OceanBusiness Main focus of 2009 power Three Norway 500 TWh Wave Power Potential Vattenfall Nordic Huge potential in our part UK 840 TWh (Sweden, Finland, Denmark) of the world Sweden 30 TWh Ireland 525 TWh Several technologies Denmark 30 TWh brought to our attention Germany 5 TWh Vattenfall Portugal 80 TWh Pan-Europe (Wind, Nuclear, Engineering) A little bit more lasting and predictable than wind Vattenfall´s Core Market Vattenfall Central Europe (Germanyambition is 30 Our and Poland) TWh/a for 2030 © Vattenfall AB AB 21 28
  29. 29. Year 1: What happened Roadmap Commercial Viability € Operational Feasibility Growth / Maturity Technical Reliability € Technical Commercialisation Feasibility € Graduation Incubation Galway Belmullet Site 1 West Coast 1MW 5MW 250MW ?000MW i i © Vattenfall AB 29
  30. 30. Year 1: What happened Graduate Project © Vattenfall AB 30
  31. 31. Year 1: What happened Graduate Project Environmental Impacts Commercial Fisheries Recreation users Shipping navigation Infrastructures (ports, roads) Public concern and opinion Seascape Archaeology and heritage Survivability Operation & maintenance © Vattenfall AB 31
  32. 32. Year 1: What happened Graduate Project Permit Plan H1 H2 H3 H4 Project Management License application successful Foreshore Lease Foreshore License On-shore planning Foreshore Lease Design specifications Environmental Impact Assessment Marine Archeology Community Engagement Public Information Campaign PR Compaign Technical specifications ESB Network Application CER License to construct CER License to generate Power purchase agreement Deployment specifications Health & Safety Supply chain & Logistics Insurance © Vattenfall AB 32
  33. 33. Year 1: What happened Consenting agencies ESBn Electrical Licence to Connection CER Construct Eirgrid OEU SEI DCENR Foreshore DAFF Marine Lease AnBord Planning DHELG CoCo Environmental UAU Dúchas Impact Community Community Udarás DoCRGA Acceptance © Vattenfall AB 33
  34. 34. Year 1: What happened Consenting agencies ESBn Electrical Licence to Connection CER Construct Eirgrid OEDU SEI DCENR Foreshore DAFF Marine Lease Go AnBord Wait Planning DHELG Stop CoCo Environmental UAU Dúchas Impact Community Community Udarás DoCRGA Acceptance © Vattenfall AB 34
  35. 35. Year 1: What happened Consenting agencies ESBn Electrical Licence to Connection CER Construct Eirgrid OEDU SEI DCENR Foreshore DAFF Marine Lease Go AnBord Wait Planning DHELG Stop CoCo Environmental UAU Dúchas Impact Community Community Udarás DoCRGA Acceptance © Vattenfall AB 35
  36. 36. Year 1: What happened Consenting agencies ESBn Electrical Licence to Connection CER Construct Eirgrid OEDU SEI DCENR Foreshore DAFF Marine Lease Go AnBord Wait Planning DHELG Stop CoCo Environmental UAU Dúchas Impact Community Community Udarás DoCRGA Acceptance © Vattenfall AB 36
  37. 37. Year 1: What happened Consenting agencies ESBn Electrical Licence to Connection CER Construct Eirgrid OEDU SEI DCENR Foreshore DAFF Marine Lease Go AnBord Wait Planning DHELG Stop CoCo Environmental UAU Dúchas Impact Community Community Udarás DoCRGA Acceptance © Vattenfall AB 37
  38. 38. Year 1: What happened Consenting agencies ESBn Electrical Licence to Connection CER Construct Eirgrid OEDU SEI DCENR Foreshore DAFF Marine Lease Go AnBord Wait Planning DHELG Stop CoCo Environmental UAU Dúchas Impact Community Community Udarás DoCRGA Acceptance © Vattenfall AB 38
  39. 39. Year 1: What happened Consenting agencies ESBn Electrical Licence to Connection CER Construct Eirgrid OEDU SEI DCENR Foreshore DAFF Marine Lease Go AnBord Wait Planning DHELG Stop CoCo Environmental UAU Dúchas Impact Community Community Udarás DoCRGA Acceptance © Vattenfall AB 39
  40. 40. Year 1: What happened Graduate Project Permit Plan H1 H2 H3 H4 Project Management License application successful Foreshore Lease Foreshore License On-shore planning Foreshore Lease Design specifications Environmental Impact Assessment Marine Archeology Community Engagement Public Information Campaign PR Compaign Technical specifications ESB Network Application CER License to construct CER License to generate Power purchase agreement Deployment specifications Health & Safety Supply chain & Logistics Insurance © Vattenfall AB 40
  41. 41. Year 2: What is happening Solution Wave Wave Climate Climate Vendor Device Devices Array Subsea Subsea Cables Cable Substation Substation ESBn ESBn Connection Connection CER CER Permission Permission Land Land Lease Lease On land On land Planning Planning EIS EIS Foreshore Foreshore Lease Lease SEAI Tonn Energy © Vattenfall AB 41
  42. 42. Year 2: What is happening Collaboration Wave Wave Wave Climate Climate Climate Vendor Device Partner Device Devices Array Devices Array Subsea Subsea Dedicated Subsea Cables Cable Cables Cable ESBn ESBn Substation Substation Connection Connection ESBn ESBn CER CER Connection Connection Permission Permission CER CER Substation Permission Permission Land Land Land Lease Lease Lease On land On land On land Planning Planning Planning EIS EIS EIS Foreshore Foreshore Foreshore Lease Lease Lease SEAI Tonn Energy Collaboration © Vattenfall AB 42
  43. 43. Year 2: What is happening Collaboration © Vattenfall AB 43
  44. 44. 5MW: Belmullet © Vattenfall AB 44
  45. 45. Year ?: What could happen Roadmap Commercial Viability € Operational Feasibility Growth / Maturity Technical Reliability € Technical Commercialisation Feasibility € Graduation Incubation Galway Belmullet Site 1 West Coast 1MW 5MW 250MW ?000MW i i © Vattenfall AB 45
  46. 46. Year ?: What could happen 2040 Scan Scot IRL Iberia © Vattenfall AB 46
  47. 47. Year ?: What could happen 2040 Scan Scot 10GW IRL Iberia $3B pa © Vattenfall AB 47
  48. 48. Year ?: What could happen 2040 © Vattenfall AB 48
  49. 49. Year ?: What could happen 2030 Scan Scot 5GW IRL Iberia $1.5B pa © Vattenfall AB 49
  50. 50. Hallå Hall Year ?: What could happen 2030 © Vattenfall AB 50
  51. 51. Year ?: What could happen 2020 Scan Scot 0.5GW IRL Iberia © Vattenfall AB 51
  52. 52. Year ?: What could happen 2020 Scan Scot 0.5GW IRL Iberia © Vattenfall AB 52
  53. 53. Year ?: What could happen Timeline 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Test Site Learnings Public Attitude Awareness Consultation Environmental Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP Permitting Reorganisation Allocation Consenting © Vattenfall AB 53
  54. 54. Year ?: What could happen Timeline 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Test Site Learnings Public Attitude Awareness Consultation Environmental Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP Permitting Reorganisation Allocation Consenting Grid Access Analysis Design Construction © Vattenfall AB 54
  55. 55. Year ?: What could happen Timeline 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Test Site Learnings Public Attitude awareness Consultation Environmental Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP Permitting Reorganisation Allocation Consenting Grid Access Analysis Design Construction © Vattenfall AB 55
  56. 56. Year ?: What could happen Timeline 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Test Site Learnings Public Attitude awareness Consultation Environmental Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP Permitting Reorganisation Allocation Consenting Grid Access Analysis Design Construction Industrial Development Evaluation Design Consenting Construction © Vattenfall AB 56
  57. 57. Year ?: What could happen Timeline 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Test Site Learnings Public Attitude awareness Consultation Environmental Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP Permitting Reorganisation Allocation Consenting Grid Access Analysis Design Construction Industrial Development Evaluation Design Consenting Construction © Vattenfall AB 57
  58. 58. Year ?: What could happen Timeline 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Test Site Learnings Public Attitude awareness Consultation Environmental Spatial Planning SEA/OREDP Permitting Reorganisation Allocation Consenting Grid Access Analysis Design Construction Industrial Development Evaluation Design Consenting Construction Infrastructure Policy/mobilise Planning Construction & development © Vattenfall AB 58
  59. 59. If climate change is still a problem... Utilities like Vattenfall will develop wave farms of utility scale. Vattenfall, on its own, have ambitions for some 30TWh for 2030+ This means a CAPEX of some €15B - €20B, and an annually O&M cost of some €0,5B: • Boats / seamen • Workshop / mechanics • Workshop / electricians Initially half in Ireland, half in Scotland? HELP! © Vattenfall AB 59
  60. 60. Summary Case study: Tonn Energy • Background: who are we? An example multi-national looking to invest • Day 1: what we expected? Great resource, & open for business • Year 1: what happened Opening for business • Year 2: what is happening Open for collaborative work • Year ?: what could happen Jigsaw pieces fall into place Be the most open for business Be the earliest Be the best. Take the opportunity. © Vattenfall AB 60
  61. 61. Summary Take the opportunity.... • 2010, formulate a spatial plan (SEA/OREDP) for Ocean Energy • 2011, allocate some sea floor to earnest, qualified developers. • 2012, design and plan the grid capacity required to these sites • 2013, commence construction of the grid capacity • 2014, commence construction of the infrastructure (ports, workforce...) • 2014-16, go through the consenting process for these projects • 2017, ramp up to employment, construction and deployment • 2020, be the first country to have an open, effective process and 500MW © Vattenfall AB 61

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