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![Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without
Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
DECC - 'high DECC - 'high
Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy
[1]
energy prices energy prices prices prices
current rates current rates
(FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI
designed to designed to
give fixed give fixed
return & will return & will
Financial lower than adjust to adjust to
incentives current tariff energy energy
(FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices)
Project
deployment
rate
(wind/biomas 30% (0% for
s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind)
Green policy
support (for
building
integrated
technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 4](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/criffinalpresentation191211finalissued090112-120112034433-phpapp01/85/CRIF-Final-Presentation-Camco-5-320.jpg)
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CRIF Final Presentation, Camco
- 1. Cambridgeshire Renewables InfrastructureFramework Shire Hall 19th December 2011 Duncan Price, Director Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
- 2. Background • DECC study of renewable energy potential in the East of England • CRIF work looks in more detail at Cambridegshire • Moving beyond technical potential to economic and deployment considerations • Consideration of three primary delivery pathways • Forms part of the evidence base for public policy formation Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 1
- 3. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbonobjectives What is Cambridgeshire's potential? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 2
- 4. Cambridgeshire is progressingwell Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 3
- 5. Modelling renewable energydeployment potential Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind) Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6% DECC - 'high DECC - 'high Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy [1] energy prices energy prices prices prices current rates current rates (FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI designed to designed to give fixed give fixed return & will return & will Financial lower than adjust to adjust to incentives current tariff energy energy (FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices) Project deployment rate (wind/biomas 30% (0% for s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind) Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 4
- 6. Deployment options forrenewable energy Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 5
- 7. Renewable electricity potentialis very large Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 6
- 8. Renewable heat constitutesthe greater challenge Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 7
- 9. S. Cambs andHunts have largest resource Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 8
- 10. Substantial infrastructure isneeded Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 9
- 11. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 10
- 12. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 11
- 13. Energy efficiency andrenewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’ Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12
- 14. Carbon prices areprojected to rise Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13
- 15. Conclusions: deployment potential • Cambridgeshire has experience of delivering renewable energy • There needs to be more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind • All technologies are needed – heat and electricity • Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers UK legal renewable energy and carbon targets by 2031 • Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario • Local jobs, affordable energy, hub of expertise Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
- 16. Thanks Duncan Price Renewable energy delivery pathways Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
- 17. There are threedelivery pathways Community Public Sector Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
- 18. What is thepotential for each pathway? Deployment potential by pathway 1600 Deployment potential (GWh) 1400 Wind >=6 turbines 1200 Wind <=5 turbines 1000 Biomass 800 ASHP 600 GSHP 400 SWH 200 PV 0 Public sector Community Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
- 19. Community pathway Deployment potential • PV • Heat pumps • 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels • 43,000 or 15% of houses • 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 • £140m capex, £75m NPV houses (14%) • Wind • £640m capex, £150m NPV • 75MW or 30 turbines • Solar water heating • £120m capex, £8m NPV • 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%) • £50m capex, £20m NPV Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 18
- 20. Case study: community Gamlingay Eco Hub and Wind Turbine (planned) • Community building owned by Parish Council with community input; funding from Public Works Loan Board or Community Builders fund • Income from FiT & energy export; reduced energy bills; new community centre • Standalone wind turbine proposed, owned by community group; entirely private investment from residents and businesses • 10% net income to community fund for first 15 years of FiT estimated at £200,000 Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19
- 21. Community pathway roadmap Conditions precedent •strong incentive to invest in renewable energy •access to a range of funding sources •maximising learning from leading practice •managing energy projects effectively •planning support 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Roadmap Community Mainstream Share information, Establish partnerships Establish long term establish funding community-wide between community models, delivery vehicles community and ownership of local demonstrate and de-risking commercial infrastructure approaches mechanisms developers Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20
- 22. Public sector pathway Deployment potential • PV • Heat pumps • 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels • 8,100 or 20% of houses • 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 • £40m capex, £23m NPV houses (18%) • Wind • £170m capex, £40m NPV • 27MW or 11 turbines • Solar water heating • £44m capex, £3m NPV • 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%) • £10m capex, £4m NPV • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21
- 23. Case study: publicsector Decarbonising Cambridge / Carbon Management, Cambridge City • Decarbonising Cambridge Study – forms part of evidence base for RE planning policies • Assessed district heating, biomass, energy from waste, wind, pyrolysis, gasification and anaerobic digestion • Carbon Trust’s Public Sector Carbon Management Plan Programme participation - to cut the Council’s carbon emissions and make ongoing cost savings • Projects form the basis of the CM plan e.g. upgrading boilers, replacing inefficient light fittings, energy awareness campaigns – also renewable energy projects e.g. Renewable Heat Incentive projects Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
- 24. Case study: publicsector Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23
- 25. Public sector pathwayroadmap Conditions precedent •Maximised value of public sector hard assets •Maximised impact of soft assets •Facilitating and convening across all sectors Roadmap Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24
- 26. Commercial pathway Deployment potential • PV • Heat pumps • 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels • 200 or 3% of buildings • 3,200 non-residential buildings • £75m capex, £43m NPV • £720m capex, £165m NPV • Wind • Solar water heating • For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11 turbines • 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of buildings • For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines • £9m capex, £4m NPV • Total capex £660m, £45m NPV • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25
- 27. Case study: commercial/communitypartnership Coldham Estate, Fenland • Standalone turbines • Private ownership • Savings: 38.5 GWh/year - 9,000 UK homes 36,000 tonnes CO2 • Community benefits: Revenue under Section 106 agreement for local projects and regeneration; Fund for education • Community input: The Co-operative Group worked closely with local community during planning and site construction Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
- 28. Commercial pathway roadmap Conditions precedent •Strong and stable policy environment •Clearly identified investment opportunities •Public sector facilitation Roadmap Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27
- 29. Conclusions • The economic prize is £3-6bn investment in Cambridgeshire • Deployment potential is spread across three pathways • Conditions precedent must be met • There are good practice examples to follow • The role of the public sector is key: Leadership Policy support Project development through own assets Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28
- 30. Thanks Duncan Price Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29