CRIF Final Presentation, Camco. Presented to the member steering group 19th December 2011

1. Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
Shire Hall 19th December 2011
Duncan Price, Director
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

2. Background
• DECC study of renewable energy potential in the East of England
• CRIF work looks in more detail at Cambridegshire
• Moving beyond technical potential to economic and deployment
considerations
• Consideration of three primary delivery pathways
• Forms part of the evidence base for public policy formation
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 1

3. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives
What is Cambridgeshire's potential?
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 2

4. Cambridgeshire is progressing well
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 3

5. Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without
Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
DECC - 'high DECC - 'high
Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy
[1]
energy prices energy prices prices prices
current rates current rates
(FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI
designed to designed to
give fixed give fixed
return & will return & will
Financial lower than adjust to adjust to
incentives current tariff energy energy
(FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices)
Project
deployment
rate
(wind/biomas 30% (0% for
s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind)
Green policy
support (for
building
integrated
technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 4

6. Deployment options for renewable energy
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 5

7. Renewable electricity potential is very large
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 6

8. Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 7

9. S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 8

10. Substantial infrastructure is needed
Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 9

11. Significant investment opportunity
Investment potential for each scenario in £millions
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 10

12. Significant investment opportunity
Investment potential for each scenario in £millions
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 11

13. Energy efficiency and renewable energy can
close the carbon ‘gap’
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12

14. Carbon prices are projected to rise
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13

15. Conclusions: deployment potential
• Cambridgeshire has experience of delivering renewable energy
• There needs to be more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind
• All technologies are needed – heat and electricity
• Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers UK legal
renewable energy and carbon targets by 2031
• Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario
• Local jobs, affordable energy, hub of expertise
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14

16. Thanks
Duncan Price
Renewable energy delivery pathways
Director
Camco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150
m: +44 (0)7769 692 610
e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com
172 Tottenham Court Road London
W1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15

17. There are three delivery pathways
Community Public Sector Commercial
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16

18. What is the potential for each pathway?
Deployment potential by pathway
1600
Deployment potential (GWh)
1400
Wind >=6 turbines
1200
Wind <=5 turbines
1000
Biomass
800
ASHP
600
GSHP
400
SWH
200
PV
0
Public sector Community Commercial
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17

19. Community pathway
Deployment potential
• PV • Heat pumps
• 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels • 43,000 or 15% of houses
• 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 • £140m capex, £75m NPV
houses (14%)
• Wind
• £640m capex, £150m NPV
• 75MW or 30 turbines
• Solar water heating
• £120m capex, £8m NPV
• 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%)
• £50m capex, £20m NPV
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 18

20. Case study: community
Gamlingay Eco Hub and Wind Turbine (planned)
• Community building owned by Parish Council with community input; funding from
Public Works Loan Board or Community Builders fund
• Income from FiT & energy export; reduced energy bills; new community centre
• Standalone wind turbine proposed, owned by community group; entirely private
investment from residents and businesses
• 10% net income to community fund for first 15 years of FiT estimated at £200,000
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19

21. Community pathway roadmap
Conditions precedent
•strong incentive to invest in renewable energy
•access to a range of funding sources
•maximising learning from leading practice
•managing energy projects effectively
•planning support
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Roadmap
Community
Mainstream
Share information, Establish
partnerships Establish long term
establish funding community-wide
between community
models, delivery vehicles
community and ownership of local
demonstrate and de-risking
commercial infrastructure
approaches mechanisms
developers
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20

22. Public sector pathway
Deployment potential
• PV • Heat pumps
• 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels • 8,100 or 20% of houses
• 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 • £40m capex, £23m NPV
houses (18%)
• Wind
• £170m capex, £40m NPV
• 27MW or 11 turbines
• Solar water heating
• £44m capex, £3m NPV
• 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%)
• £10m capex, £4m NPV
• Biomass
• 14 installations of 1.5MW
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21

23. Case study: public sector
Decarbonising Cambridge / Carbon Management, Cambridge City
• Decarbonising Cambridge Study – forms part of evidence base for RE planning
policies
• Assessed district heating, biomass, energy from waste, wind, pyrolysis,
gasification and anaerobic digestion
• Carbon Trust’s Public Sector Carbon Management Plan Programme participation -
to cut the Council’s carbon emissions and make ongoing cost savings
• Projects form the basis of the CM plan e.g. upgrading boilers, replacing inefficient
light fittings, energy awareness campaigns – also renewable energy projects e.g.
Renewable Heat Incentive projects
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22

24. Case study: public sector
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23

25. Public sector pathway roadmap
Conditions precedent
•Maximised value of public sector hard assets
•Maximised impact of soft assets
•Facilitating and convening across all sectors
Roadmap
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24

26. Commercial pathway
Deployment potential
• PV • Heat pumps
• 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels • 200 or 3% of buildings
• 3,200 non-residential buildings • £75m capex, £43m NPV
• £720m capex, £165m NPV • Wind
• Solar water heating • For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11
turbines
• 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of
buildings • For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150
turbines
• £9m capex, £4m NPV
• Total capex £660m, £45m NPV
• Biomass
• 14 installations of 1.5MW
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25

27. Case study: commercial/community partnership
Coldham Estate, Fenland
• Standalone turbines
• Private ownership
• Savings: 38.5 GWh/year - 9,000 UK homes
36,000 tonnes CO2
• Community benefits: Revenue under Section
106 agreement for local projects and
regeneration; Fund for education
• Community input: The Co-operative Group
worked closely with local community during
planning and site construction
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26

28. Commercial pathway roadmap
Conditions precedent
•Strong and stable policy environment
•Clearly identified investment opportunities
•Public sector facilitation
Roadmap
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27

29. Conclusions
• The economic prize is £3-6bn investment in Cambridgeshire
• Deployment potential is spread across three pathways
• Conditions precedent must be met
• There are good practice examples to follow
• The role of the public sector is key:
Leadership
Policy support
Project development through own assets
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28

30. Thanks
Duncan Price
Director
Camco
t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150
m: +44 (0)7769 692 610
e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com
172 Tottenham Court Road London
W1T 7NS United Kingdom
www.camcoglobal.com
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29