Risc-KIT Resilience - Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT

1. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological
Development and Demostration under Grant Agreement No. 603458. This presentation reflects the views only of the
authors, and the European Union cannot be considered liable for any use that may be made of the information
contained therein.
RISC-KIT: Resilience-Increasing
Strategies for Coasts – toolKIT
Ap van Dongeren
Deltares
www.risckit.eu

2. Coastal risk is increasing in Europe and beyond
• Coastal risk (prob. hazard * consequences) is increasing due to
(IPCC, 2014)
1. Increase in hazard intensity/frequency due to
• increased winds,
• extremes in rainfall
• sea level rise
2. Increase in consequences due to increased coastal development
• Without adaptation, flood damage on European coasts increase up
to 11 billion Euros per year

3. • Increased risk means a re-evaluation of Disaster Risk
Reduction measures
But …
• Where to invest? -> What are the hotspots?
• How can we include coastal hazards?
• What DRR measures work and why?
• What are the socio-cultural and historic aspects ?
• How can we quantify the effectiveness of DRR
measures?
• Can a generic approach be applied across Europe, in
data-rich and data-starved environments?
Meeting, Venue, Date
Risk reduction and increased resilience

4. To the rescue: the RISC-KIT Toolkit
1. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework
(CRAF) to identify - at the regional scale
(100’s km) - hot spot areas of coastal risk
2. Quantitative, high-resolution Early
Warning and Decision Support System
(EWS/DSS) to evaluate DRR measures in
hotspots
3. Web-based management guide collecting
and contrasting DRR measures;
4. Coastal Risk Database of present and
historic socio-economic and physical data.

5. Application at 11 case study sites
•10 Located
on all EU
regional seas
( )
•One site in
Bangladesh
• Diversity of
geomorphic
settings
Paolo Ciavola, 14:05
Xavier Bertin, 16:00
Jose Jimenez, 14:20

6. • 100 interviews in 11 sites with local stakeholders on socio-economic, cultural and
historical perspectives and attitudes
• Collection of physical data of 100s of events in storm impact data base.
• Review and analysis of current-practice coastal risk management plans and
lessons-learned of historical large-scale events
Historic data collection and DRR review
Historical storms from
archives
Chronicle describing the construction of a
seawall in 1872 )
Interviews in
Bangladesh

7. • Rapid assessment of hotspots of risk on
the regional scale of O(100) km
• Inputs:
– Topo/bathymetry, grain size, water level and wave forcing
• Hazards:
– Wave runup, inundation, coastal erosion
• Vulnerability and exposure (in Library):
– Land use, buildings, population
– social vulnerability, transport systems
– critical infrastructure
• Hotspot selection
– Using Multi-Criteria Analysis
Coastal Risk Assessment Framework

8. Hotspot analysis tools
Morphodynamic Model
• Quantitative, high-resolution models for use
on hot spots
• To be used as Early Warning System but also
as ex-ante DRR evaluation tool
• Based on Delft-FEWS
but now for coasts
• Results to be stored in
Bayesian Belief Network
• Details by Tom Bogaard at 11:00, this session

9. Example: Ria Formosa (Portugal)
Berlin, 16-19 june 2015
• Gulf of Cadiz (D3D surge and SWAN wave models)
• Ria Formosa (D3D surge and SWAN wave models)
• Praia de Faro (Xbeach morphodynamical model)

10. • Connects Local Hazard Indicators to Damage
• Estimation of interventions can be
quantified.
Bayesian Belief Network

11. Development and evaluation of DRR measures
• Stakeholder interviews produced long list of
potential DRR measures
• After prioritization, selected DRR measures will be
tested for effectiveness with hotspot models

12. • RISC-KIT tool kit contains
• Regional-scale assessment of coastal risks
• Evaluation of DRR measures in hotspots
• Web-based management guide of potential DRR
measures and management practices
• Coastal risk database of current and historic data
• Supports EU Flood Directive and UNISDR risk
reduction goals
• All software is free-ware and/or open-source
Take home:

13. Expected impacts
1. Faster attainment of the disaster risk reduction goals of UNISDR
(United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction).
– Products geared to meet the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)’s and
Post 2015 Framework on DRR
2. Design of cost-effective risk-reduction plans, based on the
proposed tools and solutions.
– RISC-KIT tools of CRAF, EWS/DSS, database and management guide
will help coastal design.
3. Improve risk governance and preparedness through the
provision of timely information and warnings to decision-
makers.
– Development of EWS/DSS tool for events.
– CRAF and the scenario evaluation tool help decrease the ex-ante
coastal risk.

14. • Special sessions at conferences
• Regional meetings
• 2 policy briefs
• Academic papers
• 2 summer schools (Summer 2016)
• Final conference in Brussels (2017)
• Visit RISCKIT.eu for details
• Database at risckit.cloudapp.net/risckit/#/
Dissemination