The document discusses trends in the US housing market. It provides data on pending home sales, home prices, inventory levels, mortgage rates, distressed sales, and foreclosures over recent years. The data shows signs that the housing market has stabilized and prices are rising in most areas. The document also discusses Americans' optimism about homeownership and reasons why people choose to buy homes.

2. Not a very
good strategy!!

3. The Curse of KnowledgeThe Curse of Knowledge
Total
CommunicationKnowledge
of an Expert

4. The Curse of KnowledgeThe Curse of Knowledge
The average
consumer’s
knowledge

5. We know how much
things have changed…
Buyers don’t!

6. 3 Guarantees Just a Year Ago
1.) They would find another home for sure
2.) The home would be cheaper
3.) The mortgage interest
rate would be lower

7. 90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Pending Home Sales
NAR 4/2013
100 = Historically Healthy Level

8. January 2012 – December 2012
January 2011 – December 2011
80
90
100
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 4/2013

9. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
NAR 4/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

10. Months Market Pricing
1- 5 Sellers Appreciation
5 - 6 Even The Norm
6+ Buyers Depreciation
Months Supply & Impact on Price

11. S&P Case Shiller 4/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

12. -3.9%
-3.5%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.5%
0.6%
1.1%
2.0%
3.6%
4.3%
5.5%
6.8%
8.1%
9.3%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

13. Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Atlanta 16.5%
Boston 5.2%
Charlotte 6.2%
Chicago 5.1%
Cleveland 5.3%
Dallas 7.1%
Denver 9.9%
Detroit 15.2%
Las Vegas 17.6%
Los Angeles 14.1%
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Miami 10.4%
Minneapolis 12%
New York 1.9%
Phoenix 23%
Portland 9.4%
San Diego 10.2%
San Francisco 18.9%
Seattle 9.3%
Tampa 10%
Washington 6.9%
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013

14. Metropolitan Area M-o-M
Atlanta 0%
Boston .1%
Charlotte -.2%
Chicago -.8%
Cleveland -.8%
Dallas .2%
Denver -.2%
Detroit -.6%
Las Vegas 1.6%
Los Angeles 1%
Metropolitan Area M-o-M
Miami .3%
Minneapolis -.9%
New York .4%
Phoenix 1.1%
Portland .7%
San Diego .6%
San Francisco .5%
Seattle -.2%
Tampa .6%
Washington -.5%
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013

15. Home Prices in the Short Term
130.00
135.00
140.00
145.00
150.00
May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
S&P Case Shiller 4/2013
PROJECTED?

16. Case Shiller 4/2013
Home Prices Rising in Every MSA

17. MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
33.3
14.6
-15.5
46.6
-30
-10
10
30
50
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – May 2013
Return on Investment

18. Negative Equity Decreasing
Negative Equity Loan Count (millions of mortgages – left axis) Negative Equity Share (percentage– right axis)
2009 2010 2011 2012
Fannie Mae 4/2013

19. 3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
1/2012 – 5/2013
Federal Reserve 5/2013

20. 3.3
3.35
3.4
3.45
3.5
3.55
3.6
3.65
1/3 1/10 1/17 1/24 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2
Rate 3.34 3.4 3.38 3.42 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.56 3.51 3.52 3.63 3.53 3.57 3.54 3.43 3.41 3.4 3.35
Recent Rate Movement
Freddie Mac 4/2013
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
2013

21. Analyst Projected Rate
2013 4Q
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 4.1%
Fannie Mae 4%
National Assoc of Realtors 4%
Mortgage Rate Projections

22. First Time Buyers as Percentage of Sales
NAR
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
March 2013: 30%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

23. Generations: Who & How Many
Generation Ages In Millions* % of Population
Greatest 68+ 35.2 11%
Baby Boomers 48-67 80.3 25%
Generation X 38-47 40.9 13%
Millennials 18-37 86 27%
iGen 0-17 74 23%
*U.S. Census Projections for 2013
Barrons 4/2013

24. Millennials Belief in Homeownership
89%
11%
AlreadyOwn or Plan to Buy
Plan to Rent
89% of adults between the
ages of 18-29 years old
either already own a
home or they plan
to buy one in the
next 10 years.
Gallup

25. $300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Median Asking Rent
1988-2012
The Increasing Cost of Renting
Census Bureau 4/2013

26. The Cost of Renting
Center for Housing Policy 5/2013
More than one in four
(26.4%) working renter
households spent more
than half of their income
on housing costs.
Over
50%

27. “Inventory will remain constrained,
rents will rise and demand for
rentals will decline as the
proposition for renting a
property becomes more
expensive.”
Rent vs. Buy – Looking Forward
CoreLogic Market Pulse 4/2013

28. Will Owning Make Sense in 30 Years?
Robert Schiller
NY Times 4/2013
“It’s quite possible that the next decade might bear a
resemblance to the 1960s or ’70s...
Homeowners did very well if they bought in 1960 or 1970,
locked in low fixed-rate mortgages and saw the nominal
values of their homes soar while their real mortgage
balances declined.
This could be an auspicious time to buy a house…
for people who aren’t out to bet on the housing
or mortgage markets but are instead focused
on settling into a home for the long term.”

29. Home Price to Income Ratio
S&P Housing Views 4/2013

30. % of Realtors w/ Appraisal Challenge
NAR
last 90 days
March 2013 – 29%
2010 2011 2012 2013
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Contract Cancelled Contract Delayed Negotiated to a Lower Price

31. 20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
21%
NAR 4/2013

32. U.S. Foreclosure Inventory
RealtyTrac 4/2013

33. Foreclosure Inventory Non-Judicial
RealtyTrac 4/2013

34. Foreclosure Inventory Judicial
RealtyTrac 4/2013

35. Foreclosure Inventory by State
Percentage of mortgages that have been
placed in the process of foreclosure. CoreLogic Foreclosure Report 3/2013

37. “Americans are as bullish on the housing market as
they have been at any time since before the
housing bubble burst several years ago. This
surely reflects the stabilization of the housing
market, and the fact that home prices are generally
heading up in most parts of the country.”
Housing is Back!!
Gallup

38. “Gallup data on homeownership provide strong
support for the idea that the American Dream of
owning a home continues to be alive and well.
The majority of Americans
who own a home plan on
continuing to do so in
the future, and most
of those who don't
own a home plan
on buying one.”
Gallup

39. Gallup
Americans Either Own a
Home or Plan to Buy One88 out ofout of 1010

40. Top Financial
Reasons People Buy
a Home
Gallup
1. See owning as an investment
2. The chance to build equity & credit
3. Smarter than paying rent
4. More cost effective than renting
5. Financial security & stability

41. Top Non-Financial
Reasons People Buy a
Home
Gallup
1.Belief in homeownership
2.Don’t want to live in a rental
3.Better place for the family
4.Ability to do what they want
5.Pride of ownership

42. Pew Charitable Trusts
Mortgage Interest Deduction
% of Tax Filers Claiming M-I-D

43. Average M-I-D Deduction
Pew Charitable Trusts
Mortgage Interest Deduction
Average M-I-D Deduction

44. Sacramento,
CA
Denver,
CO
Phoenix,
AZ
15 Largest Areas By Hispanic Population
Source: Nielsen
San
Francisco, CA
Fresno-Visalia,
CA
Los Angeles,
CA
San Diego,
CA
Chicago,
IL
Miami,
FL
New York,
NY
Washington,
DC
Dallas,
TX
San Antonio,
TX Houston,
TX
Harlingen,
TX

45. 15 Fastest Growing Areas Among Hispanics
Minneapolis, MN
+98%
Population 200,000+
Seattle-Tacoma,
WA +108%
Las Vegas, NV
+104%
Salt Lake City,
UT +97%
Kansas City, MO
+97%
Oklahoma City,
OK +119%
Austin, TX
+85%
Washington, DC
+108%
Raleigh, NC
+139%
Charlotte, NC
+168%
Atlanta, GA
+127%
Orlando, FL
+125%Tampa, FL
+112%
W. Palm Beach,
FL +111%Ft. Myers, FL
+123%
Source: Nielsen

46. Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
7 - 9
Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventory
of Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.org
11 - 15
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices,
Home Prices in the Short Term
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/03/27/home-prices-seen-making-stronger-gains-in-2013/
16 Home Prices Rising in Every MSA http://www.housingviews.com/2013/04/30/behind-the-numbers-in-the-spcase-shiller-release
18 Negative Equity Decreasing http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/commentary/042413-velz.html
19 - 20
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History,
Recent Rate Movement
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
21 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-3-37-nbmtwr/april-2013-outlook-
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_041713.pdf
22 First Time Buyers as Percentage of Sale http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
23 Generations: Who & How Many http://online.barrons.com/article_email/SB50001424052748703889404578440972842742076-lMyQjA
24 Millennials Belief in Homeownership http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home-lives-even-young.aspx
25 Cheaper to Buy than Rent http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
26 The Cost of Renting http://www.nhcopenhouse.org/2013/05/more-than-quarter-of-working-renter.html

47. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
27 Rent vs. Buying – Looking Forward http://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/marketpulse_2013-april.pdf
28 Will Owning Make Sense in 30 Years?
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/21/business/before-housing-bubbles-there-was-land-fever.html
29 Home Price to Income Ratio http://www.housingviews.com/2013/04/19/housing-bubble-talk-returns/
30 % of Realtors with Appraisal Challenge http://www.realtor.org/reports/realtors-confidence-index
31 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org
32 - 34
U.S. Foreclosure Inventory, Foreclosure
Inventory
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q1-2013-foreclosure-inventory-analys
35 Foreclosure Inventory by State
http://www.corelogic.com/research/foreclosure-report/national-foreclosure-report-march-
2013.pdf
37 Housing is Back
http://www.gallup.com/poll/161942/americans-optimism-home-prices-surges-this-
year.aspx
38 - 39 Gallup Data on Homeownership http://www.gallup.com/poll/161975/american-dream-owning-home-lives-even-young.aspx
40 - 41
5 Top Financial Reasons People Buy a
Home, 5 Top Non-Financial Reasons
People Buy a Home
http://www.gallup.com/poll/161966/homeowners-reasons-owning-financial.aspx
42 - 43 Mortgage Interest Deduction http://www.pewstates.org/uploadedFiles/PCS_Assets/2013/MID-report2.pdf
44 - 45
15 Largest Areas By Hispanic Population,
15 Fastest Growing Areas Among Hispanics
http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2013/latino-populations-are-growing-fastest-
where-we-arent-looking.html

48. People don’t believe what
you tell them.
They always believe what
they tell themselves.