PVP market report

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  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245342717788
  • http://www.housingwire.com/sites/default/files/editorial/3B87E459d01.pdf
  • http://www.realestateconsulting.com/newsletter
  • http://www.realogy.com/media/pr/show_release.cfm?id=1264
  • http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/son2012.pdf
  • http://www.housingamerica.org/RIHA/RIHA/Publications/82405_11693_RIHA_Children_Report.pdf
  • http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444657804578052892032374094.html
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  • http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24
  • https://www.pulsenomics.com/Sep_2012_HPE_Survey.htmlhttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/10/26/home-prices-projected-to-increase-by-3-percent-in-forthcoming-year
  • http://www.housingwire.com/rewired/three-key-trends-mba-conference
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q3-2012-metro-foreclosure-rates-and-rankings-7448
  • http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=308
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q3-2012-metro-foreclosure-rates-and-rankings-7448
  • http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q3-2012-metro-foreclosure-rates-and-rankings-7448
  • https://premiumresearch.radarlogic.com/ProductDetails.asp?ProductCode=RPXMHMR-AUGUST
  • http://www.realtor.org/
  • PVP market report

    1. 1. November 2012 Market Report
    2. 2. Pending Home Sales105.0100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 NAR 9/2012
    3. 3. Return on Investment50 45.9 January 2000 – November 201230 19.710 1.3-10-30 -24.4-50 Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
    4. 4. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 10/2012
    5. 5. Where Are the Opportunities?
    6. 6. Homeownership Rates by Age Homeownership Down Most in Under 35 Population Morgan Stanley
    7. 7. 6.25 6 25-34 Year Olds 5.95.75 Living with Parents 5.5 5.5 in millions 5.25.25 5.1 5 4.74.75 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.34.25 4 43.75 3.5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011John Burns Consulting 12/09/2011
    8. 8. Gen X&Y Believe in Homeownership 80% 75% Fundamental Indicator of Success BH&G national survey of 18-35 year-old Americans 60% 40% 20% 12% 9% 5% 0% Owning a Taking Owning an Owning Nice Home Extravagant Expensive Designer Vacations Car ClothingRealogy 10/22/2012
    9. 9. Young Adults & Homeownership“Surveys consistently find that the overwhelming majority ofyoung adults plan to own a home in the future, but manywould-be buyers have stayed on the sidelines waiting for thejob outlook to improve and house prices to stop falling. Butas markets tighten, these fence-sitters may begin to takeadvantage of today’s lower home prices and unusually lowmortgage rates.”Eric S. Belsky - Managing Director Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University Joint Center For Housing Studies Of Harvard University 6/2012
    10. 10. Benefits of HomeownershipWhen children grow up in a home that is owner occupied, they do betterin school, according to a new study by professors Richard K. Green andGary D. Painter at the University of Southern California and Michelle J.White at the University of San Diego.“Our findings reaffirmthe idea that homeownership, in and ofitself, predicts positiveoutcomes for children.This result applies to thelikelihood both ofchildren remaining inschool, and girls notbearing childrenas teenagers.” Housing America 10/23/2012
    11. 11. ‘Boomerang Buyers’1,600,000 1,500,0001,200,000 800,000 729,000 400,000 285,000 0 2011 2nd Quarter 2012 2nd Quarter 2014 1st Quarter* *projected
    12. 12. Cost vs. Price
    13. 13. Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed5.25 54.75 4.54.25 43.75 3.53.25 1/01/2011 Today Federal Reserve
    14. 14. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates areexpected to creep up slowly in the year ahead, theMortgage Bankers Association predicted.Rates on the 30-year fixed- Projected Average 30 Year Rate 4.5 4.4rate mortgage are expected 4.4to average 3.8% in the 4.3 4.2fourth quarter of 2012, rising 4.1 4to 3.9% in the first quarter 3.9 3.9 3.8of 2013 and eventually rising 3.8 3.7to an average 4.4% by the 3.6fourth quarter of next year.” 3.5 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 4Q MarketWatch 10/24/2012
    15. 15. Payment Based on Interest RatesRATE4.50 1,824 1,874 1,926 1,976 2,0274.25 1,771 1,820 1,869 1,919 1,9684.00 1,719 1,766 1,814 1,862 1,9103.75 1,667 1,714 1,760 1,806 1,8523.50 1,617 1,661 1,706 1,751 1,796 $360,000 $370,000 $380,000 $390,000 $400,000 -10% -7.5% -5% -2.5% LOAN
    16. 16. Home Prices Next Year3.5 3.25 3 2.82.5 2.44 21.5 10.5 0 Home Price Expectation Survey National Association of Business WSJ Economic Survey Economists
    17. 17. The Cost of Waiting a Year Interest Date Price P&I Rate Today $200,000 3.5% $898.09 2013 4Q $204,880 4.4% $1,025.96 Difference in Payment $127.87
    18. 18. Mortgages “Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA hold, manage or back 85% to 95% of the marketplace, said Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae.”HousingWire 10/17/2012
    19. 19. Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM) “The final deadline for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau qualified mortgage rule is just around the corner in January. The rule will define exactly what a safe mortgage is under Dodd-Franks ability- to-repay provision.”HousingWire 10/24/2012
    20. 20. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sept NAR 10/2012
    21. 21. New Construction“The continued drop in the supply of distressed homes on themarket is encouraging homebuilders to break ground onmore sites… Our forecast for 750,000 housing starts during2012 as a whole, first made in 2011, looks broadly on track.But our current forecast, for 850,000 starts in 2013growing to 950,000 in 2014, may now be on the low side.”Paul Diggle - Capital Economics Analyst and Property Economist DSNews 10/25/2012
    22. 22. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices3.0% Year-over-Year Change in Prices 2.0%2.0% 1.1%1.0% 0.6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May0.0% Jun Jul Aug -0.5%-1.0%-2.0% -1.7% -2.5%-3.0% -3.5%-4.0% -3.9%-5.0% S&P Case Shiller 10/2012
    23. 23. Prices “We’re likely seeing home values fall back into the negative range in some markets due to the close of the traditional home-buying season. While that doesn’t mean the recovery has come off the rails - in fact, most markets have hit bottom – it does present a confusing environment for customers.” Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief EconomistZillow 10/23/2012
    24. 24. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales35% 35%30%25% 24%20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept NAR 10/2012
    25. 25. “Two-thirds of the nation’s largest metros posted decreases in foreclosure activity in the third quarter, indicating that most of the nation’s housing markets are past the worst of the foreclosure problem... ForeclosuresRealtyTrac 10/25/2012
    26. 26. Foreclosures “Rebounding foreclosureactivity in some marketsremains a threat to home pricestability and growth in thosemarkets. The reboundingforeclosure activity tends to bein markets where theforeclosure process sloweddown most dramatically in thelast two years, resulting in abuildup of foreclosures inlimbo that lenders are finallyworking through this year.”Daren Blomquist - VP at RealtyTrac RealtyTrac 10/25/2012
    27. 27. Home Prices Y-O-Y Changes (FHFA) FHFA 2Q HPI Report
    28. 28. Year-Over-Year Prices (Radar Logic)10 9.2 8 7.3 6.7 6 4 2 Northeast 0 South Midwest West-2 -2.3-4 Radar Logic 10/25/2012
    29. 29. Appraisal Challenges 16% 15% 12% 11% 8% 9% NAR 10/2012 4% 0% Contracts Renegotiated Contracts Cancelled Sales Price Delayed
    30. 30. When Will 2006 Prices Return?Analyst Projected Year Barclay’s 2021 Fiserv 2023
    31. 31. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link2 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=124 S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices 453427177887 Homeownership Rates by Age http://www.housingwire.com/sites/default/files/editorial/3B87E459d01.pdf8 25-34 Year Olds Living with Parents http://www.realestateconsulting.com/newsletter9 Gen X&Y Believe in Homeownership http://www.realogy.com/media/pr/show_release.cfm?id=126410 Young Adults & Homeownership http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/son2012.pdf http://www.housingamerica.org/RIHA/RIHA/Publications/82405_11693_RIHA_Children_11 Benefits of Homeownership Report.pdf12 Boomerang Buyers http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444657804578052892032374094.html14 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-15 Mortgage Rates Moving Forward 10-24 https://www.pulsenomics.com/Sep_2012_HPE_Survey.html17 Home Prices Next Year http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/10/26/home-prices-projected-to- increase-by-3-percent-in-forthcoming-year KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
    32. 32. ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link20 Quality Residential Mortgage (QRM) http://www.housingwire.com/rewired/three-key-trends-mba-conference22 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org24,29, http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/q3-2012-metro-foreclosure- New Construction, Foreclosures30 rates-and-rankings-744826 Prices http://mortgagebankers.org/tools/FullStory.aspx?ArticleId=3480127 Prices http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=30829 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org PAID SUBSCRIPTION - https://premiumresearch.radarlogic.com/ProductDetails.asp?32 Year Over Year Prices (Radar Logic) ProductCode=RPXMHMR-AUGUST33 Appraisal Challenges http://www.realtor.org KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

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