Here’s October 2015’s Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors®
October closed home sales up on strong buyer activity over the late summer/early fall. Low supply in October and ongoing buyer demand pushed home prices higher. Seven straight months of new listings added to the market are giving buyers more options.
• September single-family home sales – UP +13.0% over last year
September Single-family median prices were UP +1.1% at $440,000
• September condo sales DOWN -7.3% and median prices were UP +15.5% at $454,950
• Inventory in September DOWN -12.1% to 3,688 and Condominiums DOWN -10.0% to 1,773
• SF listings added to the market in September UP +2.6% over last year. (1,586 from 1,546 in 2014)
• Condo listings added to the market UP +5.3% over last year. (1,137 from 1,080 in 2014)
October 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
1. Monthly IndicatorsA RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
October 2015 Quick Facts
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory
Days On Market Until Sale
Percent of Original List Price Received
City of Boston Overview
Pending Sales
New Listings
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of November 16, 2015. All data from MLS Property
Information Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
+ 13.0%
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
Single-Family Only
- 7.3%
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
Condominium Only
+ 3.8%
Year-Over-Year
(YoY) Change in
Closed Sales
All Properties
Single-Family Market Overview
Condominium Market Overview
Closed Sales
Median Sales Price
Transitory periods in the market are common this time of year, and after a
persistent period of steady year-over-year climbs in sales metrics, recent low
national numbers have not fulfilled what many predicted. But on a positive note,
jobless claims have also been at low levels, coming in as the lowest number
since 1973. As always, every market and situation is unique, so some numbers
seen in national trends may not always line up with local markets.
Closed Sales increased 13.0 percent for Single-Family homes but decreased
7.3 percent for Condominium homes. Pending Sales increased 20.5 percent for
Single-Family homes and 18.9 percent for Condominium homes. Inventory
decreased 12.1 percent for Single-Family homes and 10.0 percent for
Condominium homes.
The Median Sales Price was up 1.1 percent to $440,000 for Single-Family
homes and 15.5 percent to $454,950 for Condominium homes. Days on Market
decreased 1.4 percent for Single-Family homes and 1.9 percent for
Condominium homes. Supply decreased 22.5 percent for Single-Family homes
and 4.3 percent for Condominium homes.
Interest rates are an area to pay attention to as rate hikes are widely expected
before the year ends. The Federal Reserve Bank has skipped two opportunities
to raise rates this fall, but the final meeting in December will likely include a
minor rate hike. Although we are headed into a slower time of year, as housing
activity goes, there are still many nuggets of optimism to mine from monthly
figures.
2. Single-Family Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Oct-2014 Oct-2015 + / – YTD 2014 YTD 2015 + / –
11,825 + 6.7%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 2
New Listings 1,546 1,586 + 2.6% 16,724 17,381 + 3.9%
Closed Sales 1,048 1,184 + 13.0% 11,084
$480,000 + 4.1%
71
102 103
70
-- -- --
4,195 3,688
3.1 - 22.5%
$440,000 + 1.1% $460,900
68
Housing Affordability Index
Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory 4.0
$435,000
Pending Sales
Median Sales Price
+ 10.8%12,9651,170 1,410 + 20.5% 11,706
- 12.1% -- --
+ 1.0% 97 94 - 3.1%
--
97.4% 97.9%
+ 2.9%
+ 0.5%
Percent of Original
List Price Received
Days on Market Until Sale
96.5%
- 1.4%
+ 0.3%
70
96.8%
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
3. Condominium Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Oct-2014 Oct-2015 + / – YTD 2014 YTD 2015 + / –
+ 3.9%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 3
New Listings 1,080 1,137 + 5.3% 11,592 12,047
+ 0.8%
Pending Sales 822 977 + 18.9% 9,226 9,609 + 4.2%
Percent of Original
List Price Received
98.5% 99.6% + 1.1% 99.4% 100.2%
--
Days on Market Until Sale 53 52 - 1.9% 55 51 - 7.3%
Months Supply of Inventory 2.3 2.2 - 4.3% -- --
- 6.5%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,970 1,773 - 10.0% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 113 99 - 12.4% 107 100
- 1.4%
Median Sales Price $394,000 $454,950 + 15.5% $415,000 $450,000 + 8.4%
Closed Sales 865 802 - 7.3% 8,906 8,777
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
4. Closed Sales
A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 960 - 7.8% 651 - 14.2%
Dec-2014 1,116 + 3.2% 811 - 2.9%
Jan-2015 742 + 1.4% 481 - 15.3%
Feb-2015 554 + 6.5% 449 - 0.2%
Mar-2015 711 - 0.1% 581 - 16.0%
Apr-2015 787 - 8.7% 677 - 21.9%
May-2015 1,085 - 10.0% 949 - 5.0%
Jun-2015 1,872 + 11.2% 1,376 + 8.4%
Jul-2015 1,913 + 10.0% 1,346 + 12.5%
Aug-2015 1,736 + 14.5% 1,211 + 6.4%
Sep-2015 1,241 + 16.4% 905 + 5.0%
Oct-2015 1,184 + 13.0% 802 - 7.3%
Total 13,901 + 5.3% 10,239 - 2.5%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 4
1,089
808
1,048
865
1,184
802
Single-Family Condominium
October
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
-7.3%+7.1%-3.8%
20152014 20152014
11,767
9,332
11,084
8,906
11,825
8,777
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-1.4%-4.6%-5.8%
20152014 20152014
+13.0% +6.7%
2013 2013 2013 2013
5. Median Sales Price
Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 $450,000 + 8.4% $415,000 + 5.1%
Dec-2014 $443,500 + 2.0% $425,000 + 4.9%
Jan-2015 $446,000 + 6.7% $443,000 + 10.9%
Feb-2015 $438,500 + 7.6% $407,135 + 4.4%
Mar-2015 $432,500 + 1.3% $447,670 + 6.6%
Apr-2015 $470,000 + 6.8% $438,500 + 10.5%
May-2015 $480,000 + 3.4% $455,750 + 9.2%
Jun-2015 $526,655 + 3.3% $459,500 + 4.5%
Jul-2015 $525,000 + 4.0% $460,000 + 9.8%
Aug-2015 $498,700 + 1.8% $460,000 + 9.8%
Sep-2015 $455,000 + 7.5% $428,500 + 3.4%
Oct-2015 $440,000 + 1.1% $454,950 + 15.5%
Median $475,000 + 4.4% $445,000 + 8.1%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 5
$420,000
$396,500
$435,000
$394,000
$440,000
$454,950
Single-Family Condominium
October
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium
+15.5%-0.6%+3.6%
20152014 20152014
$439,000
$390,000
$460,900
$415,000
$480,000
$450,000
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+8.4%+6.4%+5.0%
20152014 20152014
+1.1% +4.1%
2013 2013 2013 2013
6. Housing Affordability Index
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 99 - 12.4% 108 - 9.2%
Dec-2014 101 - 1.9% 106 - 4.5%
Jan-2015 103 + 1.0% 103 - 2.8%
Feb-2015 105 - 0.9% 113 + 2.7%
Mar-2015 105 + 4.0% 101 - 1.9%
Apr-2015 97 - 1.0% 104 - 3.7%
May-2015 96 + 1.1% 101 - 4.7%
Jun-2015 86 - 1.1% 98 - 2.0%
Jul-2015 84 - 3.4% 96 - 8.6%
Aug-2015 90 0.0% 97 - 8.5%
Sep-2015 99 - 3.9% 105 - 0.9%
Oct-2015 103 + 1.0% 99 - 12.4%
Average 97 -1.5% 103 -4.7%
This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary
to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 6
106
112
102
113
103
99
Single-Family Condominium
October
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium
-12.4%+0.9%-3.8%
101
114
97
107
94
100
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-6.5%-6.1%-4.0%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+1.0% -3.1%
2013 2013 2013 2013
7. Inventory of Homes for Sale
The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 3,514 + 4.1% 1,649 - 10.2%
Dec-2014 2,788 + 3.1% 1,298 - 13.5%
Jan-2015 2,655 - 1.2% 1,311 - 13.2%
Feb-2015 2,449 - 13.6% 1,250 - 20.8%
Mar-2015 2,622 - 15.2% 1,397 - 17.0%
Apr-2015 3,353 - 7.1% 1,769 - 5.7%
May-2015 3,900 - 6.6% 1,951 - 4.4%
Jun-2015 4,044 - 4.6% 1,936 - 3.6%
Jul-2015 4,017 - 3.6% 1,840 - 4.7%
Aug-2015 3,850 - 4.5% 1,707 - 3.3%
Sep-2015 4,057 - 5.9% 1,952 - 0.4%
Oct-2015 3,688 - 12.1% 1,773 - 10.0%
Average 3,411 - 5.7% 1,653 - 8.4%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 7
3,895
2,159
4,195
1,970
3,688
1,773
Single-Family Condominium
October
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium
-10.0%-8.8%+7.7%
20152014 20152014
-12.1%
2013 2013
8. Months Supply of Inventory
The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 3.7 + 15.6% 2.5 + 4.2%
Dec-2014 2.5 0.0% 1.6 - 11.1%
Jan-2015 3.6 - 2.7% 2.7 0.0%
Feb-2015 4.4 - 20.0% 2.8 - 20.0%
Mar-2015 3.7 - 14.0% 2.4 0.0%
Apr-2015 4.3 + 2.4% 2.6 + 18.2%
May-2015 3.6 + 2.9% 2.1 + 5.0%
Jun-2015 2.2 - 12.0% 1.4 - 12.5%
Jul-2015 2.1 - 12.5% 1.4 - 12.5%
Aug-2015 2.2 - 18.5% 1.4 - 12.5%
Sep-2015 3.3 - 17.5% 2.2 - 4.3%
Oct-2015 3.1 - 22.5% 2.2 - 4.3%
Average 3.1 - 4.1% 1.9 - 3.1%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 8
3.6
2.7
4.0
2.3
3.1
2.2
Single-Family Condominium
October
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium
-4.3%-14.8%+11.1%
20152014 20152014
-22.5%
2013 2013
9. Days on Market Until Sale
Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 75 + 7.1% 57 0.0%
Dec-2014 79 + 11.3% 55 - 3.5%
Jan-2015 90 + 9.8% 63 - 3.1%
Feb-2015 105 + 11.7% 78 - 2.5%
Mar-2015 100 + 12.4% 69 0.0%
Apr-2015 90 + 4.7% 59 + 1.7%
May-2015 71 + 9.2% 47 - 7.8%
Jun-2015 60 + 1.7% 42 - 8.7%
Jul-2015 54 - 3.6% 41 - 18.0%
Aug-2015 61 + 1.7% 46 - 11.5%
Sep-2015 64 - 4.5% 52 - 1.9%
Oct-2015 70 - 1.4% 52 - 1.9%
Total 71 + 3.6% 50 - 6.6%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 9
63
48
71
53
70
52
Single-Family Condominium
October
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium
-1.9%+10.4%+12.7%
72
55
68
55
70
51
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
-7.3%0.0%-5.6%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
-1.4% +2.9%
2013 2013 2013 2013
10. Percent of Original List Price Received
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 96.3% + 0.2% 98.2% - 0.4%
Dec-2014 95.3% - 0.5% 97.9% + 0.1%
Jan-2015 95.6% + 0.3% 97.8% + 0.7%
Feb-2015 95.1% - 0.7% 97.9% - 0.1%
Mar-2015 96.2% - 0.2% 98.6% - 0.1%
Apr-2015 97.2% - 0.2% 100.3% + 0.9%
May-2015 98.8% + 0.6% 100.8% + 0.2%
Jun-2015 99.2% + 0.5% 101.6% + 0.9%
Jul-2015 99.1% + 0.9% 101.1% + 1.3%
Aug-2015 98.2% + 0.4% 100.5% + 0.6%
Sep-2015 97.5% + 0.8% 99.4% + 0.4%
Oct-2015 96.8% + 0.3% 99.6% + 1.1%
Average 97.5% + 0.4% 99.9% + 0.6%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 10
Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month,
not accounting for seller concessions.
96.8% 98.6%96.5% 98.5%96.8% 99.6%
Single-Family Condominium
October
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium
+1.1%-0.1%-0.3%
96.8% 98.8%97.4% 99.4%97.9% 100.2%
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+0.8%+0.6%+0.6%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+0.3% +0.5%
2013 2013 2013 2013
11. Pending Sales
A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 916 + 3.9% 653 - 2.7%
Dec-2014 650 + 9.4% 447 + 1.8%
Jan-2015 716 + 11.0% 558 - 11.7%
Feb-2015 667 - 15.9% 567 - 24.0%
Mar-2015 1,153 - 8.0% 980 - 6.8%
Apr-2015 1,581 + 7.3% 1,265 + 3.3%
May-2015 1,765 + 9.4% 1,277 + 13.2%
Jun-2015 1,822 + 20.3% 1,358 + 19.0%
Jul-2015 1,348 + 13.1% 952 + 2.8%
Aug-2015 1,207 + 21.6% 808 + 12.5%
Sep-2015 1,296 + 22.5% 867 + 3.7%
Oct-2015 1,410 + 20.5% 977 + 18.9%
Total 14,531 + 10.2% 10,709 + 3.6%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 11
1,139
862
1,170
822
1,410
977
Single-Family Condominium
October
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium
+18.9%-4.6%+2.7%
12,453
9,904
11,706
9,226
12,965
9,609
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+4.2%-6.8%-6.0%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+20.5% +10.8%
2013 2013 2013 2013
12. New Listings
A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
Single-Family
YoY
Change
Condominium
YoY
Change
Nov-2014 797 - 9.7% 598 + 0.2%
Dec-2014 591 + 9.9% 395 + 0.5%
Jan-2015 894 - 4.6% 709 - 10.5%
Feb-2015 697 - 38.9% 616 - 33.5%
Mar-2015 1,545 - 13.0% 1,253 - 4.0%
Apr-2015 2,525 + 12.6% 1,746 + 11.4%
May-2015 2,585 + 4.3% 1,618 + 9.5%
Jun-2015 2,362 + 18.2% 1,544 + 16.6%
Jul-2015 1,715 + 14.5% 1,078 + 1.3%
Aug-2015 1,439 + 13.6% 914 + 17.6%
Sep-2015 2,033 + 10.5% 1,432 + 12.1%
Oct-2015 1,586 + 2.6% 1,137 + 5.3%
Total 18,769 + 3.4% 13,040 + 3.6%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 12
1,468
1,078
1,546
1,080
1,586
1,137
Single-Family Condominium
October
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015
Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium
+5.3%+0.2%+5.3%
16,721
12,437
16,724
11,592
17,381
12,047
Single-Family Condominium
Year to Date
+3.9%-6.8%+0.0%
20152014 20152014 20152014 20152014
+2.6% +3.9%
2013 2013 2013 2013
13. City of Boston – Market Overview
Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.
Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Oct-2014 Oct-2015 + / – YTD 2014 YTD 2015 + / –
+ 2.5%
All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | 13
New Listings 575 627 + 9.0% 6,056 6,209
+ 0.4%
Pending Sales 415 528 + 27.2% 4,702 4,908 + 4.4%
Percent of Original
List Price Received
98.8% 99.3% + 0.5% 99.4% 99.8%
--
Days on Market Until Sale 48 47 - 2.1% 49 48 - 2.0%
Months Supply of Inventory 2.5 2.5 0.0% -- --
- 3.1%
Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,015 934 - 8.0% -- -- --
Housing Affordability Index 102 103 + 1.0% 97 94
- 1.8%
Median Sales Price $462,000 $532,000 + 15.2% $469,000 $515,000 + 9.8%
Closed Sales 414 373 - 9.9% 4,536 4,453
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015
10-2012 10-2013 10-2014 10-2015