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Demography and its indicators

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contain basic concept of demography and various indicators for accessing progress

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Demography and its indicators

  1. 1. Demography & Indicators Dr. Deepak Upadhyay Dept. 0f Community Medicine
  2. 2. Introduction ▪ DEFINITION – Demography is the scientific study of human population which includes the study of changes in population sizes its composition and distribution ▪ 3 Phenomena in demography: Change in Population size – Growth or Decline Composition of population Distribution of population in space  5 Processes in demography : Fertility Mortality Marriage Migration Social mobility. Demographic Process Fertility Mortality Marriage Migration Social Mobility
  3. 3. Demographic Cycle (Changes in population size and composition due to increase or decrease in no of births and deaths) 5 STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE Stage BR DR Examples I High Stationary India till 1920 II Early Expanding + South Asia & Africa III Late Expanding India, China, Singapore IV Low Stationary UK, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium V Declining Germany & Hungary INDIA 1920 High Stationary INDIA PRESENT Late Expanding High Stationary Early Expanding Late Expanding Low Stationary Declining
  4. 4. Demographic Indicators Population Size Population Density Age and Sex Composition Sex Ratio Dependency Ratio Birth Rate Death Rate Growth Rate Life Expectancy at Birth Mortality & Fertility Rate Population Statistics Vital Statistics (Population Dynamics) DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
  5. 5. Population size ▪ India has 2.4% world land area & 17% of world’s population. ▪ Year 1921- “Big divide”. ▪ India’s population currently increasing at rate of 16 million/yr. HISTORICAL POPULATION OF INDIA Year Population (Millions) 1901 238 1911 252 1921 251 1931 279 1941 318 1951 361 1961 439 1971 548 1981 683 1991 846 2001 1028 2011 1210 Population projection: If our population continues to grow at this rate: By 2050 India’s population will be 1.53 billion.
  6. 6. Population Density ▪ Population Density India – 382 per km2 (Census 2011) UP – 828 per km2 (Census 2011) (Ranked 8th) Highest – Delhi (11,297) Lowest – Arunachal Pradesh (17)
  7. 7. Age & Sex Composition AGE PYRAMID: • Represents Age structure of a population. • The age pyramid of India is typical of developing countries i.e. with a “BROAD BASE” and “TAPERING TOP”.  Proportion of population < 14 yrs. - “DECLINING Trend” .  Proportion of the elderly “INCREASING”. This Imposes a greater BURDEN on Health services in India. Source: Census 2011
  8. 8. SEX RATIO Sex ratio is defined as the number of females per 1000 males in the population. The sex ratio in the country has always remained unfavorable to females. Census year Sex ratio (Females per 1000 males) 1951 946 1961 941 1971 930 1981 934 1991 927 2001 933 2011 940 Causes of low sex ratio:  Strong Male child preference  Consequent gender Inequities  Neglect of the girl child  Female infanticide  Female foeticide  High MMR  Male bias in population enumeration. ALARMING: Census 2011 marks a considerable fall in child sex ratio (0-6 yrs. ) and has reached an all time low of 914 since 1961.
  9. 9. Dependency Ratio 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐷𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 0−14 years + 65 years & above 15 𝑡𝑜 65 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS –  A decline in the TDR d/t- Decline in fertility.  Key factor in Economic development. DEMOGRAPHIC BURDEN –  Increase in the TDR.  Cause of Economic Burden. For the Year 2010: • Young Age dependency Ratio-47.9% • Old Age dependency Ratio-7.7%
  10. 10. Family Size Total number of children borne by a women at a point in time during her child bearing age (15 to 45 years). Long term goal NRR=1 “2 Child Family Norm” Total fertility rate (TFR) gives an idea of total family size. TFR in India: 2.68 (NFHS-3). Family size depends upon Duration of marriage Education of couple No. of live births Contraception method Socioeconomic status etc
  11. 11. Urbanization  Mass migration of rural population into urban centers resulting in increasing the urban population & growth of cities.  Cause of urbanization: “MIGRATION” d/t-  Better employment opportunities.  Better living standards.  Better availability of social services like Education, Health, Transport, Entertainment etc. CENSUS 2011 Rural Population (millions) Urban Population (millions) Increase in Urban population (%) INDIA 833.1 377.1 3.35
  12. 12. LITERACY & EDUCATION A person (7 yrs. or more) is considered as literate if he or she can read & write with understanding in any language. Highest Literacy Rate in India- KERALA (93.91). Lowest - Bihar (Lit. Rate- 63.82%) & Arunachal Pradesh (Lit. Rate-66.9%) Literacy Rates: State Male Female Total India 82.14 65.46 74.04 Uttar Pradesh 79.24 59.26 69.72 Kerala 96.02 91.98 93.91 18.33 28.3 34.45 43.57 52.21 65.38 74.04 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Literacy Rate in India 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
  13. 13. Life Expectancy • Indicator of country’s level of development & overall health status of the population.” • The value for Life expectancy at birth, total (years) in India was 66.2 as of 2012. Year Males Females 1901 23.63 23.96 1951 32.45 31.66 1961 41.89 40.55 1971 46.40 44.70 1981 54.10 54.70 1991 59.70 60.90 2001 63.90 66.90 2009 63 66 2011 64.3 73.5 Expectation of life - At a given age is the average number of years which a person of that age may expect to live, according to the mortality pattern prevalent in that country. Expectation of life at birth (India):
  14. 14. AT A GLANCE: REFERENCES: CENSUS 2011

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