Presentation to (Vereniging) Santiago de Compostela (Pelgrims, Nederland)
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Sharing of purpose, mission and pilgrimage into Assisi: sharing life experiences of change
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Presentation to (Vereniging) Santiago de Compostela (Pelgrims, Nederland)
- 1. The Chance of a Pilgrimage Pilgrim of Change 5th November. Wijk bij Duurstede Regio Dag Nederlandse Vereniging - Pelgrims Santiago de Compostela, Adriaan Kamp Energy For One World
- 2. Contents of Session 1. Pilgrimage is of all Times, all Locations; 2. A brief introduction into Assisi 3. The invitation to become a Pilgrim of Change Lessons from Assisi and Experience(s) from the field
- 3. Adriaan Kamp 2009- - Energy For One World A practice on Global Change, Energy, UN Sustainable Development and our Leadership. Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership Education 25 years Industry/Shell International : Upstream ( 5 Countries and HQ).
- 4. Pilgrimage a pilgrim's (holy) journey. "he wanted to go on a pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostella" a journey to a place of particular interest or significance. "his passion was opera and he made annual pilgrimages to Bayreuth" literary life viewed as a journey. "now is the thirty-first year of my pilgrimage on this earth"
- 5. A Journey into Assisi To see some new bridges between the lessons from Laudato Si! (Pope Francis) and the spirit of Assisi for our modern days business and government leadership. The invitation we have today is to see and to blend our consciousness and care for deep peace, deep humanity and deep ecology with our more mainstream economics and politics- at play.
- 6. Contents of Session 1. Pilgrimage is of all Times, all Locations; 2. A brief introduction into St Francis and Assisi 3. The invitation to become a Pilgrim of Change Lessons from Assisi and Experience(s) from the Heart and Soul.
- 7. St Francis of Assisi
- 9. St Francis Prayers and Inspiration • Franciscan Prayer Lord, make me an instrument of your peace, Where there is hatred, let me sow love; where there is injury, pardon; where there is doubt, faith; where there is despair, hope; where there is darkness, light; where there is sadness, joy; O Divine Master, grant that I may not so much seek to be consoled as to console; to be understood as to understand; to be loved as to love. For it is in giving that we receive; it is in pardoning that we are pardoned; and it is in dying that we are born to eternal life. • Canticle of Creation O Most High, all-powerful, good Lord God, to you belong praise, glory, honour and all blessing. Be praised, my Lord, for all your creation and especially for our Brother Sun, who brings us the day and the light; he is strong and shines magnificently. O Lord, we think of you when we look at him. Be praised, my Lord, for Sister Moon, and for the stars which you have set shining and lovely in the heavens. Be praised, my Lord, for our Brothers Wind and Air and every kind of weather by which you, Lord, uphold life in all your creatures. Be praised, my Lord, for Sister Water, who is very useful to us, and humble and precious and pure. Be praised, my Lord, for Brother Fire, through whom you give us light in the darkness:
- 10. A 800 year holy pilgrim shrine, OFM order and tradition
- 14. Pope Francis and Laudato Si!
- 15. Pope Francis and his Encyclical – on Poverty, Stewardship and the Environment
- 16. Contents of Session 1. Pilgrimage is of all Times, all Locations; 2. A brief introduction into Assisi 3. The invitation to become a Pilgrim of Change Lessons from Assisi and Experience(s) from the field
- 17. 17 2014 2030-2050 7 Billion People 9 Billion People 90 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day 500- 750 million oil eq/day 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
- 18. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development 10/27/16 Clickable Video Presentation
- 20. 2016 Year of Organization for Change on Energy, Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development post-2015 Agenda
- 22. (Applied) Servant Leadership • Compassionate love • Authenticity • Humbleness • Empowerment • Provide direction • Stewardship
- 23. Sustainable Energy Sustainable Development Sustainable Societies Outreach Consultancy Hands-on Investment Private Industry Governments Foundations $$$
- 25. “In this form of Leadership- we are all students for life” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
- 26. Donations At present, we seek Donations and Sponsorships for our Outreach & Impact programs- and would be very grateful if you see opportunity to gift, donate of support our work Banking details: Rabo Bank Nr. (in the Netherlands): 0177098694 fao: Energy For One World (Adriaan Kamp Beheer BV) Remark: Campaign for Energy for One World IBAN/SEPA Number: NL53 RABO 01770986 94 BIC Number:RABONL2U Bank Name: Rabo Bank Group We thank you for your continued trust and support in our practice and working methods. AdriaanKamp@energyforoneworld.com Tel nr: 0031-6-20227364
- 28. Back-up
- 30. NASA Latest -September 2016
- 31. BP Energy Outlook 2035 10/27/16
- 33. 27.10.16 Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments • Economic and finance system change and fundamentals • A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution. • Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations • Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice • Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities • Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets Global Change
- 34. 2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
- 35. Year 2016 Agenda How can we organize ourselves to support and achieve these Three (3) Objectives? 1.Support the UN Sustainable Development Goals 2.Implement the Paris Agreement 3.Provide Energy to our Societies
- 36. Eco- Conscious Moderated Consumerism Limits to Growth Cradle-to-Cradle, Bio-Mimicry Zero emissions Nature First
- 37. Networked Society Away with traditional country and/or corporate borders : City-Hubs. Horizontal, cross-border collaborations Cultural awareness and tolerance Power to the People
- 38. Expansion of wealth, ownership and new growth Continued Consumerism and Hedonistic life-styles. Short-termism, Schumpeter, Ayn Rand, Resilience A world of larger inequalities and divisions: Rich and poor. Have’s and Have Not’s Money First Shared Capitalis m
- 39. A world of Power , Principles and Politics Polarisation between Beliefs and/or Power Blocks The Geo-politics of Emotions Power to the Strongest, First Darwin
- 40. Techno Modernity The world of Prof. Michio Kaku and Kurz Weill Singularity Game-changers and Disruptive Innovations A world of Smart Cities, New Surprises , The Rule of Science & Technology
- 41. Conscious Capitalism The rise of new (global and business) leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set. Transformative leadership Conscious Humanity
Editor's Notes
- Hello!
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- Saint Francis: Poverty and the Environment (4th October) Peace and All Good Canticle of Creation. A Franciscan Prayer
- This first module, and simply put- consists of three parts. 1st- The setting of the scene: The global change challenge and the energy future we find ourselves today in. 2nd. I will take a moment to share some of the key milestones and highlights of the global efforts to come to a Sustainable Development Agenda post-2015, including Climate Change Safety agreements. 3rd. I will take a little time to wrap-up but also to re-iterate and share the key focus and journey in this lecture series: Our Leadership over the Energy Architectures –as it develops.
- The question is: Can we energize ourselves safely and sustainably into this future world? From a 7 billion population towards a 9 billion global community From a 90 trillion USD to a 180-210 trillion USD From 225 boeq towards 500-750 boeeq- if nothing dramatically changes. And as today- and that is a fact – we have already ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. Add to that the Great Acceleration and the many other planetary boundaries we are seemingly at ease are crossing… Now – how do are we to do this – and how are we go-ing from here? === Energy is vital and essential to modern day life. In fact, the wealthier you become, the more energy you are likely to use. That feels logical. [2] Today, all activities on our planet are fuelled by a daily energy supply of 225 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Roughly 80% comes from oil, natural gas and coal (fossil fuels). It is expected that in 2050 the total amount of energy that needs be produced will amount to 750 million boe per day. This figure is based on a worldwide population growth of 50% in the coming 40 years, and a higher average level of energy consumption (5 kW per capita or 120 kWh per capita per day[3]). How can we deliver this large amount of energy in a clean manner?[4] How does the transition path to 50 terawatt look like?[5] The question is: Can we ënergize ourselves safely into this world? As today- and that is a fact - we already have ‘polluted” the earth atmosphere with over 400 ppm CO2 – enough for a prognosed 2 Degrees Celsius Global warming,. And in addition we have consumed and emitted in the first 15 years already all the carbon which was considered the safe budget for this century. So- Now, if all people on this planet by then were to consume fossil (oil, gas, coal) fuel energy in the same way as people presently do in the West and wealthy parts of the emerging nations, we will be in for trouble, as we would need Five planets (for as much as we can understand now) to find and produce these resources. And we will have surely exceeded an acceptable carbon emission levels- endangering our lives and species for decades, if not centuries to come. The present trend is exactly that. So, over the next decades, - in fact today and tomorrow- the energy industry will need to find answers to the challenge. And that is You & me! The clean-tech industry- the industry of renewable energy supply, smart energy infrastructures [6] and energy saving- will have to play a significant role, perhaps much larger than presently predicted or seen. But will the speed of developments and integration of the clean-tech industry and its innovations be in time for the market? How about the time needed in order to grow these solutions to scale, and to develop the capabilities into a reliable new energy infrastructure? How about the present strength and distribution of the existing resource base in the conventional coal, oil and gas resource system? Will the new frontier reserves such as shale oil and gas be sufficiently strong in order to balance the expected (rapid and steep) decline in the existing and large producing fields? Can (all of) these new frontier production reserves be actually produced- from an economic, ecological and societal point of view? So with this rise in complexity and uncertainties both on the demand side as well on the supply side of the world energy system, and in a socio-technical context, we may expect the world energy system perhaps to run against triple-A limits (affordability, availability, acceptability) or may become unstable (price volatilities, market swings, security or unrest, etc.). [1] UN report, McKinsey report: The next 3 billion [2] See graph UNDP [3] 1boe = 1564 kilowatt-hours (kWh). Note that today’s energy consumption per capita is 2.3 kW or 55 kWh per day. There are big differences around the world (China: less than 2 kW; US: more than 11 kW). [4] BP 2030 Energy Future Report ( central source report for our study!) [5] Energy Future Project- Berkhout, de Ridder & Kamp [6] E.g. micro-grids, smart and supergrids [7] In this respect: oil and/or gas reserves
- And that brings me to the extra-ordinary lecture series of Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: The Age of Sustainable Development "The Age of Sustainable Development" gives students an understanding of the key challenges and pathways to sustainable development - that is, economic development that is also socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. This open COURSERA course provides an introduction to the interdisciplinary field of sustainable development, drawing on the most recent developments in the social, policy, and physical sciences. Sustainable development is the most urgent challenge facing humanity. The fundamental question is how the world economy can continue to develop in a way that is socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable. The course describes the complex interactions between the world economy and the Earth's physical environment. Ecological processes and constraints (climate, disease ecology, physical resources such as soils and energy sources, topography and transport conditions) significantly shape the patterns of economic development, demography, and wealth and poverty. At the same time, human activities (farming, land use, urbanization, demographic change, and energy use) change the physical environments, increasingly in dangerous ways. The course offers a broad overview of the key challenges and potential solutions to achieve sustainable development in the 21st century. https://www.coursera.org/course/susdev I suggest you register and learn.
- Now- and if we look at the latest dashboard on our socio-economic and ecological dashboard of plant earth- then the aggregate of our human development looks seriously go-ing off-chart. The new and up-to-date Planetary dashboard, and presented at the latest World Economic Forum in Davos- shows- shows our “Great Acceleration” in human activity since 1950. Human activity, predominantly the global economic system, is now the prime driver of change in the Earth System (the sum of our planet's interacting physical, chemical, biological and human processes), according to a set of 24 global indicators, or “planetary dashboard”, published in the journal Anthropocene Review (16 January 2015). It is difficult to overestimate the scale and speed of change. === In a single lifetime humanity has become a planetary-scale geological force,” says lead author Professor Will Steffen, who led the joint project between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Press release | A decade on, IGBP in collaboration with the Stockholm Resilience Centre has reassessed and updated the Great Acceleration indicators, first published in the IGBP synthesis, Global Change and the Earth System in 2004. Paper The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration (Anthropocene Review) 15 January 2015. Data download Great Acceleration data (excel 2007, 364.7 kB) When we first aggregated these datasets, we expected to see major changes but what surprised us was the timing. Almost all graphs show the same pattern. The most dramatic shifts have occurred since 1950. We can say that around 1950 was the start of the Great Acceleration,” said Professor Steffen, a researcher at the Australian National University and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. The bulk of economic activity, and so too, for now, the lion’s share of consumption, remain largely within the OECD countries, which in 2010 accounted for about 74% of global GDP but only 18% of the global population. This points to the profound scale of global inequality, which distorts the distribution of the benefits of the Great Acceleration and confounds international efforts, for example climate agreements, to deal with its impacts on the Earth System. However, the paper shows that recently, global production, traditionally based within OECD countries, has shifted towards BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Moreover, the mushrooming middle classes in BRICS nations are driving greater consumption here too. About one half of the global population now lives in urban areas and about third of the global population has completed the transition from agrarian to industrial societies. This shift is evident in several indicators. Most of the post-2000 rise in fertilizer consumption, paper production and motor vehicles has occurred in the non-OECD world. This new “planetary dashboard” highlights how the trajectories of Earth and human development are now lightly bound. The findings will be presented at this weeks World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, 21-24 January.
- Add to that the concerning observation from the established energy intelligence experts, including institutes like IEA: Oil, Coal and Gas to continue to rise, and to remain at least 80% of the total fuel mix for decades to come.. And you may understand that we are – collectively- on a scary or perhaps not so healthy pathways:
- And let’s look at The Global Energy Challenge- as we today know and have come to see it. Our world is also under rapid construction and development, with new wealth and wealth distribution being created, every day, and in an unprecedented speed. Over the coming two to three decades some 3 billion people in Asia, Middle-East & Africa, Latin-America are expected to join the new global middle-class and are to enjoy the same consumption patterns in their homes, in their offices and in their transportation as in the OECD and upper middle class families in the emerging and developing nations.[1] By the mid of the century, we expect we will be living with 9 billion people- sharing one planet. As we look at the world of today- and tomorrow- we can see great political, economic, social- , technological , ecological and organizational shifts taking place in our society, in our economies and – well- in – the biosphere of our planet and in nature. In simple terms. You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society – in well-being. And you cannot have a society – at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it. So in essence: Our coming decades is – by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development: === Leadership over our economies, and in our industries such as the Energy sector- more and more is in need of a new balancing act: attuning corporate strategies, business innovation and organizational forms” with that of the ”dynamic contect change” and societal needs and realities they find themselvesin. In simple terms. You cannot have a thriving and vibrant economy, if you donot have a healthy and peaceful society – in well-being. And you cannot have a society – at peace, well-being and wealthy- if the nature system around it cannot support it. So in essence: Our coming decades is – by some UN experts such as jeffrey Sachs called the Age of Sustainable Development: Our key change challenge is to realize healthy and stable economies within healty, peaceful and vibrant societies- in respect of each other and in balance with nature. Nature needs to be sustainable as a supporting frame in order to maintain the rest. It’s that easy.
- So- and in a nutshell- we are not sure about our near-to-mid term future. On Energy that is. And how it will serve our Economies and Societies and in relation to Nature. No one can. No one can be sure. No matter who you are in our Energy Sector, or what Professional expertise you carry- be it the CEO of one of the largest Oil & Gas Companies, the State Minister or Leader of a country, An economist in an Energy institute, watchdog or block- our future is uncertain. There are some serious black swans, red post signals and signs and un-clarities (in relation, in demand needs and supply reserves, in capacity and cost development, on sustainability, etc. etc.) which causes us to frown our eyebrows. And there are also some “very bright and light” examples –name it- white swans- which make me (or us) smile. Add them all together- and the simple truth is : we don’t know how it all adds-up. And that is already a good thing to know: To acknowledge that we donot know how our energy markets, and our world energy system- will behave over the next one to two decades. I can say this with some clear certainty- as I have had the pleasure and insight of the Best of the West and the Most of the East is willing and able to offer or share. So – our individual and collective approach to our Global Change Challenge- and Energy & Sustainabilty Challenge- does matter. It’s crucial. Therefore I am so excited about this special lecture series. To my mind: This gap in knowledge and this sure-certainty in some of the behaviours of the players in our world energy system- and thus the performance of our energy architectures on location – is a problem or change challenge which can ideally be solved best within the Brotherhood of Energy Professionals. We have two options: Either we continue to compete across the silo’s , the energy value chain- between countries and companies- and hold our own cards to our chest- or we elect to come to a better grasp to what needs doing: on location, in the regions and on aggregate. That’s is the focus of this special lecture series. How can we do that?
- Now I would like to progress with a couple of typical “belief-sets” of people, countries, businesses and communities around the globe.. ON our future, and on our best ways – the strategies- forwards in this future. Let’s start with the more conservative and the more natural class of eco-conscious. Say- the people advocating ecology and people who are deeply connected with the Climate Change agenda. They see our global change challenge as one whereby we, human civilisation, will and are to find some moderation in our lifestyles, consumption patterns, our place in life ( or in nature) and acknowledge perhaps again the importance of being more in harmony with nature. IN this lifestyle and perspective, policies to regulate cities and industries to a zero emission regime and to improve the lifecylce analysis of products and services in order to boost sustainability are the new normal. This is the outlook whereby much of humanity problem is solved by raising the awareness and perspective on nature…
- Another form of looking at the challenge, is to hail today’s abilities to connect. This is the world where everybody connects with everybody- and global problems are solved – on the fly- by accessing a global community of knowledge, know-how and can-do. In addition- and thanks to this more open and free lifestyle- we will see the rise of sharing. Sharing of goods and services- making room for community thinking and less individualism. Ownership of cars, houses and jobs becomes much less relevant. This is a world of diversity and inclusiveness and as such- available energy will be shared in an equal and fair way..
- People who hold free-markets as the solution to most of our today’s challenges are the people who believe in shared capitalism, If we are able to extend the free market forces over the world, and over the market sectors which needs solutions, such as energy, housing, water, education, health, etc,.- we will see, gradually and over time, the rise of people and nations. We will see the freedom, creativity and in-ge-nuity of entrepreneurship shine and deliver the solutions the market asks or screams for… The US has done it. Europe has done it. Look at the difference between South and North Korea… IN this world view- Schumpeter and share-holder ownership are King. New resilience will be born in times of crisis. Look at the great depression. Look at the second world war, Look at the financial crisis. Are’nt we back in business? In this world view, and nevertheless all the good words and works- it still will be true that those not fit for the fight or plight- will loose out. And is also true that those who can play best, will earn best…
- The world of tomorrow can also continue to be shaped by what Machiavelly once wrote- now some centuries ago: The world is and still will be run by power. Decision making Power over the people, the businesses and nations. IN this perspective- people, businesses and nations- are interlocked in an never ending tug of war, competition and comparison on leadership. It’s just in the nature of man – to rule. Rule over the self, and rule over people and nations. As the world moves into this new decades of multi-plurarism in countries- we will see and experience the effects of this darwinistic behaviour: more and more above or below table power-play will become the norm. As nations get more and more interlocked in this power game, so get’s the energy challenge more and more locked into this tug of war. In addition, and as Globalisation leads to bigger enterprises and stronger governments- we may see and experience new interplays and leadership styles of survival: driven by the competition – everybody is driven to look and be strong… at times harsh.
- And then- I shared this a little earlier- we have the Technology Optimist view: At times, a radical optimistic lifestyle and perspective is held by the people who belief in technology and in progress through science and technology. IN this perspective on the global change challenge- people see the accelerated advancement in labs with nano and quarks, and in our computing power the answer to our problems. Within 20-30 years from now, computers will be so smart that they can design and solve all or most of our today’s complex system problems. Be it in energy or in finance or politics… In other words: We don’t need to solve all these (planetary boundaries) or global problems now. Let’s be calm and build the computing power to help us to do so… IN this world fits the view that the energy challenge will be solved by exponential growth in solar, energy storage and renewables- and that in the end- say 30 years from now- we have passed the age of fossil fuels- and we are living in a world of abundant energy, available and free for all..
- And finally- there is a perspective on the rise of a more conscious and shared leadership style. A leadership style which can transcend over own or own community needs and believes, and who can work, think and act from a global mind-set. Truly looking at complex situations from a detached, almost neutral position- and with the intent to best serve the whole. Making best use of positive psychology and hope. Whilst the above views are brief and just an example- and in no means intended to be conclusive- they can help us to better understand the situation we are in- and what stakeholder groups mind-maps can be. This is important for us to know. Perhaps it is relevant that before we address any problem, any complex situation- we may first better understand in what categories of perspectives our society and stakeholders are in today.. MY expectation is: all of the above and perhaps more. So- our pathways need to find some form of resonance (or ring some hidden bells) in them all. And remember: Resistance to change falls when the benefits are made clear. So- our pathways forward need to be able to demonstrate the benefits to all stakeholders. Collectively and individually. We have to become true social artists… That’s quite a challenge!!