One World. Many Needs. Many Views: The State of Our Global Energy System
•Download as PPTX, PDF•
1 like•353 views
One World Many Needs Many Views
Recommended
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Viewers also liked
Viewers also liked (9)
Similar to One World. Many Needs. Many Views: The State of Our Global Energy System
Similar to One World. Many Needs. Many Views: The State of Our Global Energy System (20)
More from Energy for One World
More from Energy for One World (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (17)
One World. Many Needs. Many Views: The State of Our Global Energy System
- 1. One World. Many Needs. Many Views
- 2. BRIC: It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of our people You’ll fix whatever you want to fix! The West: “If you do as I have done it will be a mess.” Let us all change- rapidly Let’s secure our nation, people and planet Emerging: Will there be enough for us? Can i afford it? Who will deliver it to me? The poor: When will we see electricity and get mobility? Opec and GasPec: You need us! We can deliver your needs! What is all that fuzz about Availability and climate change?
- 3. Future Strategies and Scenario’s: With Uncertainties 6/1/2015
- 5. Prognosis Renewables/CleanTech 2030-2040 BAU ReMap2030 UN DDCP (Business As Usual) (IRENA/UN Energy For All) (exponential growth) 21 % 30% > 70% BAU= Business As Usual, ReMap2030= UN Energy For All Study and Plan DDCP= UN Sustainable Development Goals post-2015/ Deep-De-carbonization project
- 6. Clickable Access to Report
- 7. Thomas Piketty and Pope Francis On Capital, Wealth and Social Justice 6/1/2015 Clickable Video Presentation Clickable Video Presentation
- 8. The State of Our World Energy System Three wise moves: • The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- • Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. • The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise and should taper-down significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an action agenda: • A political agenda: “We need better oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system.” We need policies, markets and regulations which supports the new • A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: “making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century” • A social agenda: “we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy once and when made available – remains affordable.” • We need leadership values of the 21st century : allowing for better integration of sustainability in the energy value chains and across borders. 8
Editor's Notes
- Now- and as I have walked this path now for a while, and where-ever I had a conversation with people above this global energy change challenge- I received a variety of perspectives on the challenge. We live in One World- but we do have a wide variety of local and personal needs- and we do live in a world with very many and different views or awarenesses. So- the first thing we may realize when we address the issues is that there is and will be no single one answer to the problem. First and foremost- the problem is perceived differently by different people around the globe. And as the problem (or needs) are perceived different, so are the answers and solutions… I have attached in the handout a recent article in the New York Times from Andrew Revin with the working title Can Humanity’s ‘Great Acceleration’ Be Managed and, If So, How? I share you some similar observations and insights in my working practice- and which we are working with: We need to understand the Global AND Local- in order to make good and proper (energy) decisions on locations– balancing Social needs, with Economy and Sustainability. And Vica versa. The aggregate of all the local needs and deeds should be somehow be overlooked- and guided.- especially on Energy & Sustainability. === In the words of Andrew Revin: Ultimately, there will need to be an institution (or institutions) operating, with authority, above the level of individual countries to ensure that the planetary boundaries are respected. In effect, such an institution, acting on behalf of humanity as a whole, would be the ultimate arbiter of the myriad trade-offs that need to be managed as nations and groups of people jockey for economic and social advantage. It would, in essence, become the global referee on the planetary playing field. === Go to press release from Planetary dashboard shows “Great Acceleration” in human activity since 1950 Human activity, predominantly the global economic system, is now the prime driver of change in the Earth System (the sum of our planet's interacting physical, chemical, biological and human processes), according to a set of 24 global indicators, or “planetary dashboard”, published in the journal Anthropocene Review (16 January 2015). Go to article from Andrew Revin: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/15/can-humanitys-great-acceleration-be-managed-and-if-so-how/?_r=1 IN this article we can read the following words-: Even without specifying exact global boundaries, global metrics can be highly misleading for policy. For example, with nitrogen, where the majority of human emissions come from synthetic fertilizers, the real-world challenge is to apply just the right amount of nitrogen to optimize crop yields while minimizing nitrogen losses that harm aquatic ecosystems. Reducing fertilizer application in Africa might seem beneficial globally, yet the result in this region would be even poorer crop yields without any notable reduction in nitrogen pollution; Africa’s fertilizer use is already suboptimal for crop yields. What can look like a good or a bad thing globally can prove exactly the opposite when viewed regionally and locally. What use is a global indicator for a local issue? As in real estate, location is everything. Finally, and most importantly, the planetary boundaries are burdened not only with major uncertainties and weak scientific theory – they are also politically problematic. Real world environmental challenges like nitrogen pollution, freshwater consumption and land-use change are ultimately a matter of politics, in the sense that there are losers and winners, and solutions have to be negotiated among many stakeholders. The idea of a scientific expert group determining top-down global limits on these activities and processes ignores these inevitable trade-offs and seems to preclude democratic resolution of these questions. It has been argued that (Steffen et al 2011): Ultimately, there will need to be an institution (or institutions) operating, with authority, above the level of individual countries to ensure that the planetary boundaries are respected. In effect, such an institution, acting on behalf of humanity as a whole, would be the ultimate arbiter of the myriad trade-offs that need to be managed as nations and groups of people jockey for economic and social advantage. It would, in essence, become the global referee on the planetary playing field. Here the planetary boundaries framework reaches its logical conclusion with a political scenario that is as unlikely as it is unpalatable. There is no ultimate global authority to rule over humanity or the environment. Science has a tremendously important role to play in guiding environmental management, not as a decider, but as a resource for deliberative, evidence-based decision making by the public, policy makers, and interest groups on the challenges, trade-offs and possible courses of action in negotiating the environmental challenges of societal development (DeFries et al 2012). Proposing that science itself can define the global environmental limits of human development is simultaneously unrealistic, hubristic, and a strategy doomed to fail.
- Now to continue, and in simple terms, in the energy landscape of the world - we can today see the following type of conversations… So how are we going to share one planet and ideally staying out of trouble? Well, and to start, and in a very simplified way- the countries presently divide themselves in resource [7] rich (exporting) countries or in energy (poor, importing) countries. So, this creates a world picture in Five (Energy) Clusters: OECD, or the West - The high consumers of the past, present and perhaps the future China, and BRICS /MIST - The new parties in town Saudi and OPEC/Russia and Gaspec - The oil and Gas “cursed” nations India and leading emerging nations - Ready to join The Very poor - How can we join? These clusters have all their own pattern of energy architecture and behaviors and politics. Now the question here is: how these clusters of nations are going to inter-relate, behave and develop over the coming decades? Will there be a free and open market for energy and energy supplies, or will we there be more retrenchment and competition, and jockeying for position? Will parties decide to make isolated decisions and Machiavellian policies and in order to optimize own outcomes and advantages or will we see a new form of collaboration benefitting the common good and all?
- Well- first of all- is to allow ourselves to think in probable scenario’s. Scenario’s wherein Certainties and un-certainties in the development and new frontiers in the conventional oil and gas industry can be off-set against certainties and un-certainties in the cleantech industry. Will we see a tipping point? Will energy storage become available? When and in what speed can the world build cleantech capabilities and capacities- and new energy architectures. At what cost and in what timeframe can we change the existing electrification infrastructure and our transportation sector? Next to that- we can see on our horizon a world of emotions. Are we going to compete or collaborate? Can we influence the ways in which we relate? How will we behave in times of scarcity or in abundance? What market mechanism will prevail- in the free- markets, regulated and state-controlled markets. By starting to walk and talk this path- a little more intense- we may start to discover insights valuable to our company, company strategy and things we collective may want to achieve..in your nation, region or overall.
- And I just want to flag to you- one of the flagship projects within the UNSDSN organisation- the so-called Deep-decarbonization project. With an assembled scientific team- the organisation has and is going to look into every country, every energy architecture on this planet- and will propose pathways of how that economy, that country, that energy architecture will be able to come to a zero-emission infrastructure by 2050. Quite ambitious. But also actually quite needy- to bring to the attention. Now=- the study is still in the academic realms, and doesnot test itself against the forces and changes needed at policy makers, industry , economy or organizations in order to make it true. That’s the addition this lecture series bring to you. Our lecture series is about the pragmatics. About how we – the true energy professional- can start talking and walking the path of renewal. Of getting safe- and to stay out of trouble.
- As trouble is not only in our natural environment. Possible and potential trouble is also seen ahead in our run to progress in our economies and social realms. Last year, Pope Francis’ gave a special address to the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos. In the handout you’ll find the full text of his address. But in simple words- the Pope re-addressed some of his earlier observations made in his Evangelii Gaudium: I ask you to ensure that humanity is served by wealth and not ruled by it. Let me be clear: The Pope is not standing alone here. He finds serious economist such as Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz and now also Thomas Piketty at his side.- as well NGO’s such as Oxfam and Occupy wall street movement. Current fact is that the ‘1% rich and wealthy’ own and possess more than the rest of humanity- that is more than 50% of global wealth. There are clear flaws and short-comings, say – a shadow-side- in our todays free-market economies, in capitalism and elite wealth, and in the rush to greed for money (all over the planet). Energy and Finance are strongly interlinked. Energy – Economy and Society as well. So the warning of the Pope- is not only a warning to Government and Government Officials – but is – to my mind- a “call for grace and understanding for wanting to do better” in the Energy Sector and our Society overall. -- Full Adress of Pope Francis. I am very grateful for your kind invitation to address the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, which, as is customary, will be held at Davos-Klosters at the end of this month. Trusting that the meeting will provide an occasion for deeper reflection on the causes of the economic crisis affecting the world these past few years, I would like to offer some considerations in the hope that they might enrich the discussions of the Forum and make a useful contribution to its important work. Ours is a time of notable changes and significant progress in different areas which have important consequences for the life of humanity. In fact, “We must praise the steps being taken to improve people’s welfare in areas such as healthcare, education and communications” (Evangelii Gaudium, 52), in addition to many other areas of human activity, and we must recognize the fundamental role that modern business activity has had in bringing about these changes, by stimulating and developing the immense resources of human intelligence. Nonetheless, the successes which have been achieved, even if they have reduced poverty for a great number of people, often have led to a widespread social exclusion. Indeed, the majority of the men and women of our time still continue to experience daily insecurity, often with dramatic consequences. In the context of your meeting, I wish to emphasise the importance that the various political and economic sectors have in promoting an inclusive approach which takes into consideration the dignity of every human person and the common good. I am referring to a concern that ought to shape every political and economic decision, but which at times seems to be little more than an afterthought. Those working in these sectors have a precise responsibility towards others, particularly those who are most frail, weak and vulnerable. It is intolerable that thousands of people continue to die every day from hunger, even though substantial quantities of food are available, and often simply wasted. Likewise, we cannot but be moved by the many refugees seeking minimally dignified living conditions, who not only fail to find hospitality, but often, tragically, perish in moving from one place to another. I know that these words are forceful, even dramatic, but they seek both to affirm and to challenge the ability of this assembly to make a difference. In fact, those who have demonstrated the aptitude for being innovative and for improving the lives of many people by their ingenuity and professional expertise can further contribute by putting their skills at the service of those who are still living in dire poverty. What is needed, then, is a renewed, profound and broadened sense of responsibility on the part of all. “Business is – in fact – a vocation, and a noble vocation, provided that those engaged in it see themselves challenged by a greater meaning in life” (Evangelii Gaudium, 203). Such men and women are able to serve more effectively the common good and to make the goods of this world more accessible to all. Nevertheless, the growth of equality demands something more than economic growth, even though it presupposes it. It demands first of all “a transcendent vision of the person” (Benedict XVI, Caritas in Veritate, 11), because “without the perspective of eternal life, human progress in this world is denied breathing-space” (ibid.). It also calls for decisions, mechanisms and processes directed to a better distribution of wealth, the creation of sources of employment and an integral promotion of the poor which goes beyond a simple welfare mentality. I am convinced that from such an openness to the transcendent a new political and business mentality can take shape, one capable of guiding all economic and financial activity within the horizon of an ethical approach which is truly humane. The international business community can count on many men and women of great personal honesty and integrity, whose work is inspired and guided by high ideals of fairness, generosity and concern for the authentic development of the human family. I urge you to draw upon these great human and moral resources and take up this challenge with determination and far-sightedness. Without ignoring, naturally, the specific scientific and professional requirements of every context, I ask you to ensure that humanity is served by wealth and not ruled by it. Dear Mr Chairman and friends, I hope that you may see in these brief words a sign of my pastoral concern and a constructive contribution to help your activities to be ever more noble and fruitful. I renew my best wishes for a successful meeting, as I invoke divine blessings on you and the participants of the forum, as well as on your families and all your work. From the Vatican, 17th January 2014.
- Now- what do we know of tomorrow? The world of today and tomorrow is in rapid acceleration. In the amount of people living on one planet, In the amount of new wealth creation and distribution. 3 billion people in the BRICS and emerging nations joining the middle-class, And in the need for energy. IN order to have the comfort of mobility, housing, communication, school, health, jobs and life entertainment. So – our shared challenge is to discover and to create the circumstances and conditions, ie. accelerate the right innovations, in order to allow everybody to enjoy energy in abundance. That is part of the exciting journey we like to take with you in this open conversation .. ==== But let us look today at what the role of innovation is in Energy, and how we can approach this. A vision and approach to this Global Energy Challenge is outlined in an earlier edition of my (program) book “Energy For One World”. Some of the essential elements hereof have been researched in a sponsored study and thesis. The objective and focus of this opening presentation is somewhat different, but it’s a good moment to share here some of the key change challenges we are facing in our overall world energy system: “Three wise moves” (or “three simple, non-dogmatic and intuitive rules”) spring to mind if we look at the total and aggregate developments – in our world energy system, today: The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to- Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy. The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise further significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature. And an overall action agenda: A political agenda: we need better and a global oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system. A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century A social agenda: we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy when made available – remains affordable. We need leadership values of the 21st century: allowing for better integration of sutainability in the energy value chains and across borders. The role of the Energy Business, in all this – and in realizing a sustainable development and action agenda post-MDG 2015- is to our minds - quite significant. It is our view that the afore mentioned Global (Energy) Challenge can be best solved by a attuned collaboration between Policy makers and the Business and Energy professionals (and Executives) in the sector and around the globe. Hence our excitement in our practice to develop, create and realize the (informal and global) ´platforms and formats´- ie. the conditions and facilities- for the energy professionals and policy makers (Executives) to step-up in their leadership and approach to this (global) change challenge. Only by pulling and combining the best-and-brightest resources and knowledge available, and only if we allow ourselves to find ´new and fresh-styled formats or platforms´ Between: the conventional energy sector and the cleantech industry business-, finance-, politics- and science the East and the West, The North and the South The have and have not’s May we have a chance of raising our shared awareness and building the (innovative) capabilities and capacities within the sector, and across borders. The energy sector that then can truly remain the ´engine´ and blessing for our economies and societies.