As part of his work for NASA, Dr. Murdock was asked to find out what percentage of people in the continental united States saw Haley's Comet when it was last visible. He randomly selected three major cities, Seattle, Cleveland, and Boston, and polled 1000 randomly selected people from these cities. He finds that fewer than 5% of the people he interviewed saw the comet, so he concludes that fewer than 5% of people in the continental United States saw the comet. Discuss whether Murdock is using a generalization or an analogy, name the sample and the target, and discuss whether there are any fallacies present in the argument (if so, why; if not, why not?). Font Size Paragraph Flag this Question Question 2 10  pts Skip to question text. In 1935, in order to get newspapers to subscribe to his weekly polls, George Gallup promised he would predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election. He actually guaranteed the newspapers that were subscribing to his poll that if he was wrong, he would refund all their money. And that was just part of the bet. Gallup also guaranteed that he would predict the percentages more accurately than the leading poll of the day, conducted by the Literary Digest magazine. The Literary Digest poll had picked the winner in every presidential election since 1916. The Digest poll was conducted on a vast scale. A staff of several thousand workers stuffed ballots into envelopes, in some years as many as 20 million of them. The ballots were mailed to names polled from automobile registration lists and telephone directories. The assumption was that the more people you interview, of course you're going to get closer to the truth. But the method George Gallup relied on was called quota sampling. The idea was to canvass groups of people who were representative of the electorate. Gallup sent out hundreds of interviewers across the country, each of whom was given quotas for different types of respondents; so many middle-class urban women, so many lower-class rural men, and so on. Gallup's team conducted some 3,000 interviews, but nowhere near the 10 million polled that year by the Literary Digest. Who is going to correctly predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election, the Literary Digest or George Gallup? Explain your answer by discussing the methodology of each pollster, and by using the terminology provided to you in chapter 10. Font Size Paragraph Flag this Question Question 3 5  pts Skip to question text. As Bob is driving on an exit off the freeway, he comes to a stop light and sees a homeless man asking people for spare change. “See, he’s a perfect example of why we shouldn’t be giving welfare benefits to the homeless,” Bob mutters to his wife. “He’s too lazy to get a job, but he’s healthy enough to beg people for their hard-earned money all day long.” What are the sample and the target in Bob’s argument? Are there any inductive fallacies present in Bob’s r.

1. As part of his work for NASA, Dr. Murdock was asked to find
out what percentage of people in the continental united States
saw Haley's Comet when it was last visible. He randomly
selected three major cities, Seattle, Cleveland, and Boston, and
polled 1000 randomly selected people from these cities. He
finds that fewer than 5% of the people he interviewed saw the
comet, so he concludes that fewer than 5% of people in the
continental United States saw the comet. Discuss whether
Murdock is using a generalization or an analogy, name the
sample and the target, and discuss whether there are any
fallacies present in the argument (if so, why; if not, why not?).

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Question 2
10
pts
Skip to question text.
In 1935, in order to get newspapers to subscribe to his weekly
polls, George Gallup promised he would predict the winner of
the 1936 presidential election. He actually guaranteed the
newspapers that were subscribing to his poll that if he was
wrong, he would refund all their money. And that was just part
of the bet. Gallup also guaranteed that he would predict the
percentages more accurately than the leading poll of the day,
conducted by the Literary Digest magazine. The Literary Digest
poll had picked the winner in every presidential election since
1916. The Digest poll was conducted on a vast scale. A staff of
several thousand workers stuffed ballots into envelopes, in some
years as many as 20 million of them. The ballots were mailed to
names polled from automobile registration lists and telephone
directories. The assumption was that the more people you
interview, of course you're going to get closer to the truth. But
the method George Gallup relied on was called quota sampling.
The idea was to canvass groups of people who were
representative of the electorate. Gallup sent out hundreds of
interviewers across the country, each of whom was given quotas
for different types of respondents; so many middle-class urban
women, so many lower-class rural men, and so on. Gallup's

3. team conducted some 3,000 interviews, but nowhere near the 10
million polled that year by the Literary Digest. Who is going to
correctly predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election,
the Literary Digest or George Gallup? Explain your answer by
discussing the methodology of each pollster, and by using the
terminology provided to you in chapter 10.
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Question 3
5
pts
Skip to question text.
As Bob is driving on an exit off the freeway, he comes to a stop
light and sees a homeless man asking people for spare change.
“See, he’s a perfect example of why we shouldn’t be giving
welfare benefits to the homeless,” Bob mutters to his wife.
“He’s too lazy to get a job, but he’s healthy enough to beg
people for their hard-earned money all day long.” What are the
sample and the target in Bob’s argument? Are there any
inductive fallacies present in Bob’s reasoning? If so, explain
why. If not, explain why not.

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Question 4
5
pts
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The National Rifle Association's website conducted a poll of
gun owners in America, asking whether the respondents are
opposed to gun-control laws. 2000 American gun-owning NRA
members went online and responded to the poll. The poll result
shows that 80% of them are opposed to gun-control laws. The
group concludes that most people in America are opposed to
gun-control laws. For this passage, determine whether the
argument is an analogical argument or a generalization (explain
your answer), and explain which inductive fallacies, if any, are
present in the argument.

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Question 5
10
pts
What is the definition of a “randomly chosen sample”
(according to the definition discussed in your text), and what is
the goal of randomly choosing a sample?
What is the definition of a “randomly chosen sample”
(according to the definition discussed in your text), and what is
the goal of randomly choosing a sample?

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Question 6
10
pts

8. Skip to question text.
What is the definition of a self-selected sample (according to
the textbook or instructor), and what is the problem with using a
self-selected sample as the basis of an inductive argument?
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Question 7
10
pts
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Explain the relationship between error margin and sample
size (assuming the confidence level remains the same), why the
concept of error margin is necessary in an inductive argument,
and how error margin is applied to the target population. You
may want to use an example to help explain your answer.
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Question 8
10
pts
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Dad is making a "Hunter's Stew". The stew includes chunks of
beef, potato, carrot and barley in a thick broth full of many
hearty spices. As the stew is simmering in a pot on the stove,
Son walks into the kitchen and says, "Let's see if this stew
tastes any good!" Son gets a big spoon and begins to dip his
spoon into the top of the pot. Before Son has a chance to get the
spoonful of stew, Dad yells, "Mix the stew up before you taste
it!" For this passage, name the intended sample, the intended
target, the property in question, and explain why Son should stir
the stew before he tastes it.

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Question 9
5
pts
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When Haley's Comet hovered over Jerusalem in 66 CE, the
historian Josephus prophesied it meant the destruction of the
city. Jerusalem fell four years later during a failed uprising
against Roman occupiers, thus confirming the power of the
comet. Is this argument subject to any causal fallacies
discussed in the PowerPoint presentation for chapter 11
? Explain your answer.

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Question 10
10
pts
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Jack is hired by a company to see if a new product not yet on
the market, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of
bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men, and randomly
divides them into two groups: Five hundred men in group A rub

13. Topocal on their heads everyday, and five hundred men in group
B rub water from an unmarked bottle on their heads (a placebo)
everyday. After six months, Jack finds that there has been hair
growth in 7% of group A, and 2% of group B. a) What is the
control group? What is the experimental group? b) What is “D”
in this case? c) What type of study is this (controlled cause to
effect, non-controlled cause to effect, or non-controlled effect
to cause)? Explain your answer briefly. d) Are the results of this
study statistically significant (use the table in chapter 11 to find
the answer to this question)? e) What is the target population to
which we hope to apply the results of this study?
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Question 11
10
pts
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For the last ten years, unemployment has increased in January
and retail sales have gone down in February. Clearly, the
decrease in retail sales is caused by the increase in
unemployment. Is this argument subject to any of the following
causal fallacies: post hoc ergo propter hoc, reverse causation,
ignoring an underlying cause? Explain your answer.

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Question 12
10
pts
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Determine whether the following statement is an example of
Method of Difference Reasoning or Method of Agreement
Reasoning (and briefly explain your answer). Fund-raising
director for a public radio station: "I know that our music
director hates it when we play classical music. But go back and
look at our most successful fund drives; every big day has been
a day heavily loaded with classical music."

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Question 13
10
pts
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Determine whether the following statement is an example of
Method of Difference Reasoning or Method of Agreement
Reasoning (and briefly explain your answer). “I had a lot of
noise on my car stereo when the engine was running, until I
thought maybe that the way to fix the problem is to install a
4MH choke coil in the hot wire from the battery to the stereo. I
did it, and it cured the problem.”

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Question 14
10
pts
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18. Determine whether the following statement is an example of
Method of Difference Reasoning or Method of Agreement
Reasoning (and briefly explain your answer). Sharon has
observed that her teacher sometimes seems to be in a bad mood.
"Well," she thinks, "it seems to happen when people haven't
done their assignments. That must be it."
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Question 15
10
pts
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Jack hears on the evening news that several scientific
studies have demonstrated that taking acetaminophen causes
liver damage. Jack immediately runs to his medicine cabinet and
throws away all his painkillers that contain acetaminophen, and
he recommends to his friends and family that they do the same.
Jack now believes that acetaminophen will cause liver damage
in him and his loved ones. Discuss whether Jack's reaction is
justified (is Jack correctly interpreting the claim that
"acetaminophen causes liver damage?"). Be sure to use the
concepts in chapter 11 to help explain your answer. You should
discuss the nature of general causal claims.

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Question 16
5
pts
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Determine whether this is an inductive generalization, or an
analogical argument. Identify the sample and target, if this is a
generalization, or the analogues, if this is an analogical
argument. Identify the property in question, and discuss which,
if any, fallacy exists in the passage:
Remark made while driving on the Pennsylvania Turnpike:
"We've seen nine cars with license plates from west of the
Mississippi today, and six of them have been from Texas.
Texans must travel more than other people."

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Question 17
5
pts
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Six months ago, several of Molly's friends joined the Trimtime
Fitness Center. Each of them participated in Trimtime's weight-
reduction and fitness regimen. All reported substantial weight
reduction, and all are visibly slimmer. Molly is convinced. She
joins Trimtime and enrolls in the same program, hoping and
expecting to see the same results. She is especially delighted to
learn that Trimtime had adjusted its program to make it even

22. more effective in a shorter period of time. Discuss whether this
is an analogical argument or an inductive generalization, and
discuss the strength or weakness of the argument, using the
appropriate terminology from chapter 10.
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Question 18
5
pts
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Bill: "If you don't believe in God, you're much more likely to
commit suicide. You can tell that by looking at places like
Sweden and Norway where there's a higher percentage of
atheists than the norm and their per capita suicide rate is higher,
too. "
What causal fallacy from among the following choices is Bill
making (reverse causation, ignoring an underlying cause, post
hoc ergo propter hoc, cum hoc ergo propter hoc, ignoring
statistical regression)? Discuss your answer.