How to testify Effectively
Chapter 15
By: Tiffany Houston
May 7, 2016
Objectives
Name the different methods used to notify a law enforcement professional to appear in court
Describe the appropriate clothing for law enforcement professionals to wear in court
Identify those people to whom the law enforcement professional should not speak to during recesses
Explain what a law enforcement professional should do while testifying with respect to objections
State what a law enforcement professional should do when he or she does not remember the answer to a question asked
Explain what a law enforcement professional should do when asked an argumentative question on cross-examination that the defense attorney insists should be answered yes or no.
The law enforcement professional Role
Law Enforcement plays a important role in the prosecution process:
Interview witnesses,
preserve the crime scene,
collect physical evidence,
Due to the level of interaction Law Enforcement plays, they also will be requested to appear in court to testify. Like any witness, they also maybe reluctant in the testimonial process.
The key to testifying is simple: Testify truthfully.
Notification to appear
Notification to appear:
Supoena- A court order demanding the presence of the person in court as a witness
On-call- A direction in a subpoena that states the law enforcement official is not needed to appear personally in court unless called by the prosecutor. This requires that the law enforcement official remains nearby and readily available for a court appearance.
Phone call- The prosecutor may merely just call the law enforcement official advising him or her that their presence in needed in court as a witness.
What to do before the trial
A. The law enforcement official must provide all information to the prosecutor, even if it is a weakness or problem with the case: Search warrant, arrest, collection and analysis of evidence, interrogation of the defendant.
The law enforcement official must refamiliarize themselves with the facts of the case, and speak with prosecution what they are expected to testify about. In return, discuss the case with the superior officer and partner to get a second eye on how to present the facts and physical evidence.
If an expert professional is testifying, they must be qualified expert, ensure they have all evidence available for court, and prepare it for proper presentation.
What to wear in Court
Wear to court what you wear to work is how most law enforcement official think. (shined shoes, clean and pressed uniform, no bulge from pencils notebooks, or anything that can distract the testimony.)
If a uniform it not worn, business attire is the Norm for court. (solid-color dress shirt, modest tie, with a matching coat jakect, business suit conservative blouse and dress slacks or skirt.)
Some who are off duty uniformed officers will wear business attire-only if they are traveling to court in their personal vehicles.
Prosecution pref ...
How to testify EffectivelyChapter 15By Tiffany HoustonMay.docx
1. How to testify Effectively
Chapter 15
By: Tiffany Houston
May 7, 2016
Objectives
Name the different methods used to notify a law enforcement
professional to appear in court
Describe the appropriate clothing for law enforcement
professionals to wear in court
Identify those people to whom the law enforcement professional
should not speak to during recesses
Explain what a law enforcement professional should do while
testifying with respect to objections
State what a law enforcement professional should do when he or
she does not remember the answer to a question asked
Explain what a law enforcement professional should do when
asked an argumentative question on cross-examination that the
defense attorney insists should be answered yes or no.
The law enforcement professional Role
Law Enforcement plays a important role in the prosecution
process:
Interview witnesses,
preserve the crime scene,
collect physical evidence,
Due to the level of interaction Law Enforcement plays, they
also will be requested to appear in court to testify. Like any
witness, they also maybe reluctant in the testimonial process.
The key to testifying is simple: Testify truthfully.
2. Notification to appear
Notification to appear:
Supoena- A court order demanding the presence of the person in
court as a witness
On-call- A direction in a subpoena that states the law
enforcement official is not needed to appear personally in court
unless called by the prosecutor. This requires that the law
enforcement official remains nearby and readily available for a
court appearance.
Phone call- The prosecutor may merely just call the law
enforcement official advising him or her that their presence in
needed in court as a witness.
What to do before the trial
A. The law enforcement official must provide all information to
the prosecutor, even if it is a weakness or problem with the
case: Search warrant, arrest, collection and analysis of
evidence, interrogation of the defendant.
The law enforcement official must refamiliarize themselves
with the facts of the case, and speak with prosecution what they
are expected to testify about. In return, discuss the case with the
superior officer and partner to get a second eye on how to
present the facts and physical evidence.
If an expert professional is testifying, they must be qualified
expert, ensure they have all evidence available for court, and
prepare it for proper presentation.
What to wear in Court
Wear to court what you wear to work is how most law
enforcement official think. (shined shoes, clean and pressed
uniform, no bulge from pencils notebooks, or anything that can
distract the testimony.)
3. If a uniform it not worn, business attire is the Norm for court.
(solid-color dress shirt, modest tie, with a matching coat jakect,
business suit conservative blouse and dress slacks or skirt.)
Some who are off duty uniformed officers will wear business
attire-only if they are traveling to court in their personal
vehicles.
Prosecution prefer for even uniformed officers to wear business
attire.
DO NOT WEAR WEAPONS OR HATS. (i.e. baton or
nightstick, pepper spray, tasers)
Where to Appear and what to do
Witnesses receive notice on when and wear to appear in court.
When a witness reports on the designated date and time, they
must be in the assigned courtroom and wait for further
instructions. Due to the Rule on Witnesses, which requires all
witnesses to be pulled out of the court room, the law
enforcement official will also leave the court room if testifying.
If the witness is requested to reappear in court, the judge will
excuse them and request their appearance at another date and
time.
If the Witness is told to come after the court proceeding has
started, they can contact the prosecution through the bailiff or
court clerk.
Conduct before and during court
When the rule of witnesses is not used, law enforcement
officials have the opportunity to gain important insights into
how or how not to testify effectively. Observe the prosecutions
direct examination, demeanor of the judge, and defense cross
examination.
Waiting outside of court for the witness should be precautious
4. about what they do or say. Avoid conversation with the
Defense attorney, defendant or their witnesses.
No Contact with the Jury.
Carrying on conversation and passing notes amongst witnesses
should be avoided.
Showing emotions should also be avoided. Display a neutral
position in the case.
When called to the stand never walk in “the well”
The well is the area in he courtroom between the judge bench
and the counsel tables that is off limits without the judge’s
permission.
On the Witness stand
Avoid slouching or slumping in the seat
Avoid fidgeting behavior
Avoid robot-like mannerism
Speak clear and into the microphone, without jargon, vulgarity,
and profanity.
Do not show prejudice toward the defendant. When addressing
the defendant look toward the defense table where he or she is
sitting. Identify the defendant and what he or she is wearing.
Answer all question direct. Even the simple question in
reference to the law enforcement officials background. If a
question is objected and sustained, that question will not be
answered. If it is over ruled the official will answer the
question. If the official forgets a portion of the situation be
honest about them not remembering.
After testifying
The law enforcement official should make sure he or she is
excused before leaving the courtroom.
5. Review Case after Verdict
If there is an acquittal, the official should not take it personally.
It there was a mistake made in their testimony, they should take
that in consideration by correcting that mistake for future cases
and assist others in not making the same mistake.
Even if there is a conviction, there should still be a review of
the case to improve investigatios and courtroom techniques,
Sheet: PSX Income Statement
Sheet: Sheet3
Sheet: NOPLAT
Sheet: Beta
PHILLIPS 66 (PSX) CashFlowFlag INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year ends in December. USD in millions except per share
data.
Common Size Analysis
Fiscal Year
Net Sales
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Cost of Sales
0.8542899453358767
0.8480398606479072
0.8445293622418298
0.8818377580826862
0.8696655365407383
Gross profit
0.1457100546641234
0.15196013935209285
6. 0.15547063775817016
0.11816224191731385
0.13033446345926164
Sales, General and administrative
0.01013449690114752
0.03251548833298057
0.009413848525601076
0.007023438045201232
0.009310085028522225
Other operating expenses
0.09877935073403497
0.08635138923053161
0.10980636555471732
0.07812017107480036
0.11215154450543537
Total operating expenses
0.10891384763518248
0.11886687756351218
0.11922021408031838
0.0851436091200016
0.12146162953395759
EBIT=Operating income
0.0367962070289409
0.03309326178858068
0.036250423677851765
0.03301863279731225
0.008872833925304057
Interest Expense
1.1470672949647904
0.0016271260809419049
0.0015731455474260478
6.270800094930027E-6
8.473984866459968E-5
6.726940049510279E-6
Interest Income
-1.5844673447374354E-4
14. 0.032160815518651784
0.0148314582171636
0.0
0.0
Treasury stock
-0.037990651642666046
-0.014884817143282096
-0.0019461847126097463
0.0
0.0
Accumulated other comprehensive income
-0.003235969846367609
2.1165958274459553E-4
-0.00171657865100972
0.11596399054901453
0.17490716822731675
Total stockholders' equity
0.1315717306649278
0.12556561733091545
0.11357299832715584
0.11596399054901453
0.17490716822731675
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
0.2970327801917205
0.2848709162571721
0.26280600474519195
0.21539374121447158
0.3024095899257346
CHECK (total assets=total liabilities-total equity)
PHILLIPS 66 (PSX) Statement of CASH FLOW
Fiscal year ends in December. USD in millions except per share
data.
Fiscal Year
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income
0.029233422510405685
22. 1762.4099999999999
1941.11
2685.5
1853.46
579.88
Decrease/(increase) in deferred taxes
Operating cash taxes
2382.41
2622.1099999999997
2326.5
2839.46
579.88
Reconciliation to net income
Net income
4762.0
1019.1999999999997
885.5999999999984
746.9000000000013
Increase/(decrease) in deferred taxes
-620.0
-681.0
359.0
-986.0
Adjusted net income
4142.0
338.1999999999997
1244.5999999999985
-239.09999999999866
After-tax interest paid
168.21
0.0
1.9529327050352094
0.2519913167787367
Loss (gain) from discontinued operations
-671.0
0.0
23. 0.0
0.0
Total income available to all investors
3639.21
338.1999999999997
1246.5529327050338
-238.84800868321992
After-tax interest received
-17.324403028538146
-6.0477916026896805
NOPLAT
3655.59
328.1999999999997
1229.2285296764956
-244.8958002859096
Check
0.0
Historical Invested Captial
Cash and cash equivalents
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other current assets
Operating Current Assets
Accounts payable
Accrued expenses
Income taxes payable
Other current liabilities
Operating Current Liabilities
Operating Working Captial
Net property, plant and equipment
Other Non-current Assets
Intangible assets
Operating Invested Captial
Non-Operating Assets
Short term investments
Long-term investments
24. Total funds invested
Short-term barrowing
Long-term liabilities
Other long-term liabilities
Debt & debt equivalents (Interest bearing debts)
Deferred income taxes (net of deferred taxes- assets)
Minority interest
Net common stock and paid-in-capital
Retained earnings
Treasury stock
Accumulated comprehensive income
Equity & equity equivalents
Total funds invested
Check
Historical Free Cash Flows
NOPLAT
Depreciation
Gross cash flow
(Increase)/decrease in operating working capital
Capital expenditures
(Increase)/decrease in other assets
(Increase)/decrease in intangibles and goodwill
Increase (decrease) in accumulated comprehensive income
Gross investment
Free Cash flow
444.59000000000015
After-tax interest received
154.98
(Increase) /decrease in sort-term investments
(Increase) /decrease in long term investments
Discontinued operations (-expense and + income)
Cash flows to investors
Financing flows
After-tax interest expense
154.98
Decrease/(increase) in debt
25. Flows to debt holders
Minority interests (gain) from income statement
Decrease (Increase) in minority interest op(IC)
Dividends (or adjustment to retained earnings)
Net Shares repurchased (issued)
Flows to equity holders
Cash flows available to investors
check
Month
PSX
Market
R(stock)
R(market)
1370.26001
1378.530029
-0.01837837837837837
0.006035364777229431
41022.0
34.110001
1403.359985
-0.06084799008810582
0.01801190795822703
1369.099976
-0.11580184357074622
-0.024412844434922434
1353.390015
0.05537135278514583
-0.011474663118393059
41043.0
31.379999
1295.219971
-0.014137637448947433
-0.0429809909599488
41050.0
31.299999
1317.819946
45. 0.9976403273049222
1.7313292416684813
0.9976403273049222
1.7313292416684813
Adjusted/Smoothing beta
1.24
Interest bearing Debt (D)
10961.0
Market cap E
40612.0
Captial Structure
Total Debit Ratio
0.5570464290843438
0.5592192457528414
0.5678447361304683
Stable debt ratio beta/(1+D/E) to unlever beta
Unlevered beta (PSX)
97.98
Unlevered beta (VLO)
1.1054
Re-Levered (PSX) Beta
1.0425846835095354
Avgerage/Industry unlevererd Beta
1.3239736994641305
NOPLAT,IC&FCFHistorical
NOPLAT20142013201220112010EBIT5,461,4006,224,7004,734
,4004,222,8003,025,200Add amortizationAdjusted
EBITA5,461,4006,224,7004,734,4004,222,800Operating cash
taxes-2,304,772-1,094,467-2,082,390-
1,946,528NOPLAT3,156,6285,130,2332,652,0102,276,272Oper
ating Taxes on EBITAReported
taxes1,626,5001,945,9001,659,4001,423,600Tax shield on
interest paid225,096263,903273,980253,640Taxes on interest
received2,576-36-272,790-256,512 Taxes on
EBITA1,854,1722,209,7671,660,5901,420,728Decrease/(increas
46. e) in deferred taxes000144,300Decrease/(increase) in long-term
deferred taxes450,600-1,115,300421,800381,500Operating cash
taxes2,304,7721,094,4672,082,3901,946,528Reconciliation to
net income2014201320122011Net
income3,161,7003,537,3003,064,7002,799,900Increase/(decreas
e) in deferred taxes000-144,300Increase/(decrease) in long-term
deferred taxes-450,6001,115,300-421,800-381,500 Adjusted
net income2,711,1004,652,6002,642,9002,274,100After-tax
interest paid438,904477,397508,820505,760Loss (gain) from
discontinued operations1,6003006,9007,900 Total income
available to all
investors3,151,6045,130,2973,158,6202,787,760After-tax
interest received5,024-64-506,610-
511,488NOPLAT3,156,6285,130,2332,652,0102,276,272check
Row 7 = Row 27?0.000.000.000.000.00Historical Invested
Capital20142013201220112010Cash and cash
equivalents3,787,0003,504,0004,652,2003,647,2003,790,600Ac
counts
receivable3,277,6003,758,2003,799,1003,294,50024,349,100Inv
entories 4,209,7004,934,7005,170,0004,370,6003,063,000Other
current assets
33,555,00031,281,00027,627,30024,207,1001,936,200
Operating Current
Assets44,829,30043,477,90041,248,60035,519,40033,138,900A
ccounts payable 002,481,0002,351,0002,383,000Accrued
expenses003,712,0004,571,0003,817,700Income taxes
payable000166,000154,000Deferred
revenues00452,000345,0000Other current
liabilities8,655,1009,080,5002,479,100489,500330,500
Operating Current Liabilities
8,655,1009,080,5009,124,1007,922,5006,685,200Operating
working
capital36,174,20034,397,40032,124,50027,596,90026,453,700N
et property, plant and
equipment9,593,3005,466,9007,539,7006,502,3003,790,700Othe
r non-current
47. assets1,496,9004,931,9001,465,3001,180,5002,125,400Intangibl
e
assets68,80077,100105,000127,400117,000Goodwill791,200844
,800921,200999,800998,600 Operating invested
capital48,124,40045,718,10042,155,70036,406,90033,485,400
Non-operating assetsPrepaid pension
benefit262,000551,10020,20030,400146,700Short-term
investments1,215,1001,624,8001,470,400787,300227,900Long-
term investments303,200221,400215,000201,700244,500
Total funds
invested49,904,70048,115,40043,861,30037,426,30034,104,500
20142013201220112010Short-term
borrowings12,577,70012,898,0009,967,3009,629,7007,534,500L
ong-term
liabilities24,380,70021,577,70022,453,10016,959,90016,814,50
0Pensions and other
benefits6,496,5005,416,7007,694,8006,712,1005,784,900Other
long-term liabilities0120,400164,500168,3000 Debt & debt
equivalents (interest-bearing
debts)43,454,90040,012,80040,279,70033,470,00030,133,900De
ferred income taxes (net of deferred taxes- assets)-2,615,700-
2,165,100-3,280,400-2,858,600-2,332,800Minority
Interest2,9001,90019,90014,60013,100Net common stock and
paid-in-
capital3,675,4003,524,2003,352,2003,251,7003,106,300Retaine
d
earnings22,004,40019,645,60016,875,20014,519,40012,353,100
Treasury stock-12,834,200-10,210,900-8,813,800-7,292,800-
5,789,500Accumulated comprehensive income-3,783,000-
2,693,100-4,571,500-3,678,000-3,379,600 Equity & equity
equivalents6,449,8008,102,6003,581,6003,956,3003,970,600
Total funds
invested49,904,70048,115,40043,861,30037,426,30034,104,500
check Row 54 = Row
69?0.000.000.000.000.0020142013201220112010ROIC
(including goodwill)6.90%12.17%7.28%6.80%Stock's closing
48. price85.5481.8485.4475.9076.80Shares
outstanding363,000385,300397,100417,400424,000Market
capitalization of
equity31,051,02031,532,95233,928,22431,680,66032,563,200Int
erest-bearing
debt43,454,90040,012,80040,279,70033,470,00030,133,900Ente
rprise value=interest-bearing debt+Market cap of
equity74,505,92071,545,75274,207,92465,150,66062,697,100E
BITDA multiple
=EV/EBITDA11.019.7112.9312.6815.91Historical Free Cash
Flows20142013201220112010NOPLAT3,156,6285,130,2332,65
2,0102,276,272Depreciation1,306,5001,140,3001,004,200914,9
00914,800 Gross cash
flow4,463,1286,270,5333,656,2103,191,172(Increase)/decrease
in operating working capital-1,776,800-2,272,900-4,527,600-
1,143,200Capital expenditures-5,432,900932,500-2,041,600-
3,626,500(Increase)/decrease in other assets3,435,000-
3,466,600-284,800944,900(Increase)/decrease in intangibles and
goodwill61,900104,300101,000-11,600Increase (decrease) in
accumulated comprehensive income-1,089,9001,878,400-
893,500-298,400Gross investment-4,802,700-2,824,300-
7,646,500-4,134,800 Free Cash flow-339,5723,446,233-
3,990,290-943,628After-tax interest received-
5,02464506,610511,488(Increase)/decrease in prepaid pension
benefit289,100-530,90010,200116,300(Increase) /decrease in
short-term investments409,700-154,400-683,100-
559,400(Increase) /decrease in long term investments-81,800-
6,400-13,30042,800Discontinued operations ("-" for expense
and "+" for income)-1,600-300-6,900-7,900 Cash flows to
investors270,8042,754,297-4,176,780-
840,3402,0032,0022,0012,000 Financing flowsAfter-tax
interest
expense438,904477,397508,820505,760Decrease/(increase) in
debt-3,442,100266,900-6,809,700-3,336,100 Flows to debt
holders-3,003,196744,297-6,300,880-2,830,340Minority
interests (gain) from income statement0000Decrease (Increase)
49. in minority interest-1,00018,000-5,300-1,500Dividends (or
adjustments to retained
earnings)802,900766,900708,900633,600Net shares repurchased
(issued)2,472,1001,225,1001,420,5001,357,900 Flows to
equity holders3,274,0002,010,0002,124,1001,990,000 Cash
flows available to investors270,8042,754,297-4,176,780-
840,340check Row 100 = Row 113?0.000.000.000.000.00
Enterprise DCF ModelSpredasheet Valuation of Walco
Companyt=0t=1t=2t=3t=4t=5t=6t=7t=8t=9t=10t=1120142015E2
016E2017E2018E2019E2020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025EPa
nel A. Operating
AssumptionsEBIT/Sales15.14%15.30%15.00%14.50%14.50%14
.50%14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%NOPLAT/Sale
s9.72%9.83%9.63%9.31%9.31%9.31%8.99%8.99%8.99%8.99%
8.99%8.99%Depreciaton/Sales3.62%3.62%3.62%3.62%3.62%3.
62%3.30%3.30%2.95%2.95%2.95%2.95%Working
capital/Sales100.30%95.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%93.50
%93.50%93.50%93.50%93.50%93.50%Working
capital36,174,20033,201,38532,470,95433,120,37334,113,9853
5,137,40435,239,67235,521,59035,805,76336,092,20936,380,94
636,671,994Capital
expenditures/Sales15.06%10.00%8.60%6.20%6.20%5.40%5.40
%4.80%4.80%4.80%4.80%4.80%Other
assets/Sales4.15%4.06%4.06%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%3.
94%3.94%3.94%3.94%Other
assets1,496,9001,418,9221,387,7061,394,5421,436,3781,479,47
01,507,5801,519,6401,508,8201,520,8911,533,0581,545,323Fre
e cash flow/Sales-
16.17%12.18%6.88%4.85%3.85%4.65%6.54%6.72%6.43%6.37
%6.37%6.37%Panel B. Inputs for Present Value
Calculations1Sales36,066,90034,948,82634,179,95234,863,5513
5,909,45736,986,74137,689,48937,991,00538,294,93338,601,29
338,910,10339,221,3842Sales growth rate-4.57%-3.10%-
2.20%2.00%3.00%3.00%1.90%0.80%0.80%0.80%0.80%0.80%3
EBIT5,461,4005,347,1705,126,9935,055,2155,206,8715,363,07
75,276,5295,318,7415,361,2915,404,1815,447,4145,490,9944M
50. arginal tax
rate35.78%35.78%35.78%35.78%35.78%35.78%35.78%35.78%
35.78%35.78%35.78%35.78%5Income
taxes1,954,0891,913,2181,834,4381,808,7561,863,0191,918,909
1,887,9421,903,0451,918,2701,933,6161,949,0851,964,6786NO
PLAT3,507,3113,433,9533,292,5553,246,4593,343,8533,444,16
83,388,5873,415,6953,443,0213,470,5653,498,3303,526,3167 +
Depreciaiton1,306,5001,265,9991,238,1471,262,9091,300,7971,
339,8211,243,7531,253,7031,129,7011,138,7381,147,8481,157,
0318- Change in working capital-1,776,8002,972,815730,430-
649,419-993,611-1,023,420-102,268-281,917-284,173-286,446-
288,738-291,0489- Capital expenditures-5,432,900-3,494,883-
2,939,476-2,161,540-2,226,386-1,997,284-2,035,232-1,823,568-
1,838,157-1,852,862-1,867,685-1,882,62610 + - Change in
other assets-3,435,00077,97831,216-6,836-41,836-43,091-
28,110-12,06110,820-12,071-12,167-12,26411Free cash flow-
5,830,8894,255,8622,352,8721,691,5731,382,8161,720,1942,46
6,7292,551,8522,461,2122,457,9242,477,5882,497,40912WACC
5.54%5.54%5.54%5.54%5.54%5.54%5.54%5.54%5.54%5.54%5.
54%13Discount
factor1.05540499651.11387970661.17559420781.24072800071.
30947053121.38202174141.45859265111.53940597181.624696
75421.714713072214Present
value4032444.032112321.631438909.121114519.611313656.21
1784869.941749530.411598806.141512851.211444899.37Panel
C. Valuation CalculationsRisk-Free Rate2.40%SurveyBeta
Levered1.651PV of FCF, 2013-202218,102,808Enterprise
value57,281,048Unlevered beta0.6874932603Equity Risk
Premium5.70%Survey2PV of continuing value
(CV10))37,397,940Value of debt43,454,900cost of unlevered
equity6.32%Cost of Equity11.80%3Non-operating
assets1,780,300Value of equity13,826,148Cost of Debt (Before
Tax)1.66%4Enterprise value57,281,048Shares
outstanding363,000Cost of Debt (After
Tax)1.07%5RONIC5.80%Intrinsic share price38.09Capital
Structure, % Equity41.68%Stock was undervalued-55%Base
51. WACC5.54%Relative valuation:1PV of FCF, 2013-
202218,102,808Enterprise value58,345,8842016 EPS
Estimate=5.4ValueLineCapital structureTotalWeight2PV of
continuing value (CV10)38,462,776Value of
debt43,454,900Long-term average P/E=14ValueLineInterest-
bearing debt43,454,90058.32%3Non-operating
assets1,780,300Value of equity14,890,984Estimated 2016 price
=75.6MV of equity31,051,02041.68%4Enterprise
value58,345,884Shares outstanding363,000Dividends in 2015
(year
1)=2.52ValueLineDebt+equity=EV74,505,920100.00%Intrinsic
share price41.02Dividends in 2016 (year
2)=2.69ValueLineStock was undervalued-52%Intrinsic Share
Price64.892012 EV/EBITDA multiple11.012022 EV/EBITDA
multiple10.00Stock price on Oct 31, 2014 = 85.54Panel D.
Sensitivity AnalysisCuurent inputs:Expected growth rate in
perpetuity g=0.80%1. Enter the value of intrinsic share price in
Cell N35 at Cell D54RONIC =5.80%2. Enter a value range for
two varaiables and block D54:K61Market risk premium
=5.70%3. Click Data|What-If Analysis|Data Table Intrinsic
value =38.094. Insert both row and column inputs into Data
TableRONIC38.098.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%g4.4
%190.07205.40219.11231.45242.61252.76262.034.6%230.5525
0.05267.50283.20297.41310.33322.124.8%292.81318.75341.97
362.86381.76398.95414.645.0%401.02438.19471.45501.38528.
45553.07575.555.2%636.18697.77752.88802.48847.35888.1592
5.405.4%1540.361695.961835.181960.482073.842176.902271.0
05.6%-3632.87-4015.35-4357.57-4665.56-4944.22-5197.55-
5428.86Market Risk
Premium38.094.9%5.1%5.3%5.5%5.7%5.9%6.1%g4.4%195.961
43.47107.6081.5161.6746.0633.454.6%274.65182.40128.1892.4
767.1448.2233.544.8%517.94268.44166.21110.5075.4151.2433.
565.0%-9475.07622.43261.08146.1589.5855.8733.455.2%-
387.30-988.59933.47251.46120.0764.1433.095.4%-176.28-
229.99-392.9614354.31236.5383.8932.105.6%-103.55-114.01-
132.85-177.61-427.96203.4328.76
52. &"Times New Roman,斜體"&10Attachment 2. Valuation FCFE
Financial Statements - DEDeere & Company's Income
Statementsfor the Years Ended October 31 (Dollars in
Thousands, except per share data)Common-Size
Analysis2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morni
ng Star (Non-Adjusted)Check
Revenue36,066,90037,795,40036,157,10032,012,50026,004,600
100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%36066900377954003
6157100320125002600460000000Cost of
revenue24,775,80025,667,30025,129,80022,034,40017,742,8006
8.69%67.91%69.50%68.83%68.23%24775800256673002512980
0220344001774280000000 Gross
profit11,291,10012,128,10011,027,3009,978,1008,261,80031.31
%32.09%30.50%31.17%31.77%11291100121281001102730099
78100826180000000Research and
development1,452,0001,477,3001,433,6001,226,2001,052,4004.
03%3.91%3.96%3.83%4.05%1452000147730014336001226200
105240000000Sales, General and
administrative3,608,4003,952,5003,662,0003,361,7002,968,700
10.00%10.46%10.13%10.50%11.42%3608400395250036620003
361700296870000000Other operating
expenses769,300473,6001,197,3001,167,4001,215,5002.13%1.2
5%3.31%3.65%4.67%76930047360011973001167400121550000
000 Total operating
expenses5,829,7005,903,4006,292,9005,755,3005,236,60016.16
%15.62%17.40%17.98%20.14%58297005903400629290057553
00523660000000 EBIT= Operating
income5,461,4006,224,7004,734,4004,222,8003,025,20015.14%
16.47%13.09%13.19%11.63%5461400622470047344004222800
302520000000Interest
Expense664,000741,300782,800759,400811,4001.84%1.96%2.1
6%2.37%3.12%66400074130078280075940081140000000Other
income (expense)-7,600100779,400768,000822,100-
0.02%0.00%2.16%2.40%3.16%782800759400811400-7600100-
3400860010700 Net interest income -671,600-741,200-
53. 3,4008,60010,700-1.86%-1.96%-0.01%0.03%0.04%-664000-
741300000-7600100-3400860010700 Income before
taxes4,789,8005,483,5004,731,0004,231,4003,035,90013.28%14
.51%13.08%13.22%11.67%479740054834004734400422280030
25200-7600100-3400860010700Provision for income
taxes1,626,5001,945,9001,659,4001,423,6001,161,6004.51%5.1
5%4.59%4.45%4.47%16265001945900165940014236001161600
00000Other income000000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-
7600100-34008600107007600-1003400-8600-10700 Net
income from continuing
operations3,163,3003,537,6003,071,6002,807,8001,874,3008.77
%9.36%8.50%8.77%7.21%316330035376003071600280780018
7430000000Other-1,600-300-6,900-7,900-9,300-0.00%-0.00%-
0.02%-0.02%-0.04%-1600-300-6900-7900-930000000 Net
income3,161,7003,537,3003,064,7002,799,9001,865,0008.77%9
.36%8.48%8.75%7.17%316170035373003064700279990018650
0000000Earnings per share: Basic8.719.187.726.714.4
Diluted8.639.097.636.634.35Sales growth rate-
4.57%4.53%12.95%23.10%Marginal tax
rate33.90%35.60%35.00%33.40%41.00%ValueLineDeere &
Company's Balance Sheetfor the Years Ended October 31
(Dollars in Thousands)Common-Size Analysis - Divided by
Sales2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morning
Star (Non-Adjusted)Check Cash and cash
equivalents3,787,0003,504,0004,652,2003,647,2003,790,60010.
50%9.27%12.87%11.39%14.58%3787000350400046522003647
200379060000000Short-term
investments1,215,1001,624,8001,470,400787,300227,9003.37%
4.30%4.07%2.46%0.88%12151001624800147040078730022790
000000 Total
Cash5,002,1005,128,8006,122,6004,434,5004,018,50013.87%13
.57%16.93%13.85%15.45%500210051288006122600443450040
1850000000Receivables3,277,6003,758,2003,799,1003,294,500
24,349,1009.09%9.94%10.51%10.29%93.63%327760037582003
79910032945002434910000000Inventories4,209,7004,934,7005,
170,0004,370,6003,063,00011.67%13.06%14.30%13.65%11.78
54. %4209700493470051700004370600306300000000Other current
assets33,555,00031,281,00027,627,30024,207,1001,936,20093.0
4%82.76%76.41%75.62%7.45%33555000312810002762730024
207100193620000000 Total current
assets46,044,40045,102,70042,719,00036,306,70033,366,80012
7.66%119.33%118.15%113.41%128.31%4604440045102700427
19000363067003336680000000Gross property, plant and
equipment15,344,50011,126,00012,838,80011,658,3008,690,70
042.54%29.44%35.51%36.42%33.42%153445001112600012838
80011658300869070000000Accumulated Depreciation-
5,751,200-5,659,100-5,299,100-5,156,000-4,900,000-15.95%-
14.97%-14.66%-16.11%-18.84%-5751200-5659100-5299100-
5156000-490000000000 Net property, plant and
equipment9,593,3005,466,9007,539,7006,502,3003,790,70026.6
0%14.46%20.85%20.31%14.58%9593300546690075397006502
300379070000000Equity and other
investments303,200221,400215,000201,700244,5000.84%0.59%
0.59%0.63%0.94%30320022140021500020170024450000000Go
odwill791,200844,800921,200999,800998,6002.19%2.24%2.55
%3.12%3.84%79120084480092120099980099860000000Intangi
ble
assets68,80077,100105,000127,400117,0000.19%0.20%0.29%0.
40%0.45%688007710010500012740011700000000Deferred
income
taxes2,776,6002,325,4003,280,4002,858,6002,477,1007.70%6.1
5%9.07%8.93%9.53%27766002325400328040028586002477100
00000Prepaid pension
benefit262,000551,10020,20030,400146,7000.73%1.46%0.06%0
.09%0.56%262000551100202003040014670000000Other long-
term
assets1,496,9004,931,9001,465,3001,180,5002,125,4004.15%13
.05%4.05%3.69%8.17%149690049319001465300118050021254
0000000 Total
assets61,336,40059,521,30056,265,80048,207,40043,266,80017
0.06%157.48%155.61%150.59%166.38%6133640059521300562
65800482074004326680000000Short-term
56. earnings22,004,40019,645,60016,875,20014,519,40012,353,100
61.01%51.98%46.67%45.36%47.50%2200440019645600168752
00145194001235310000000Treasury stock-12,834,200-
10,210,900-8,813,800-7,292,800-5,789,500-35.58%-27.02%-
24.38%-22.78%-22.26%-12834200-10210900-8813800-
7292800-578950000000Accumulated other comprehensive
income-3,783,000-2,693,100-4,571,500-3,678,000-3,379,600-
10.49%-7.13%-12.64%-11.49%-13.00%-3783000-2693100-
4571500-3678000-337960000000 Total stockholders'
equity9,062,60010,265,8006,842,1006,800,3006,290,30025.13%
27.16%18.92%21.24%24.19%9062600102658006842100680030
0629030000000 Total liabilities and stockholders'
equity61,336,40059,521,30056,265,80048,207,40043,266,80017
0.06%157.48%155.61%150.59%166.38%6133640059521300562
65800482074004326680000000check0.000.000.000.000.00Deer
e & Company's Consolidated Statement of Cash Flowsfor the
Years Ended October 31 (Dollars in Thousands)Common-Size
Analysis - Divided by
Sales2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morning
Star (Non-Adjusted)Check Net
income3,163,3003,537,6003,071,6002,807,8001,874,3008.77%9
.36%8.50%8.77%7.21%316335383072280818743160137353406
2306852828049921872426Cash Flows From Operating
Activities: Depreciation &
amortization1,306,5001,140,3001,004,200914,900914,8003.62%
3.02%2.78%2.86%3.52%13065001140300100420091490091480
000000 Investment/asset impairment
charges95,900102,00033,40027,2000.27%0.27%0.09%0.00%0.1
0%95900102000334002720000000 Deferred income taxes-
280,100-172,600-91,800175,000-0.78%-0.46%-
0.25%0.00%0.67%-280100-172600-9180017500000000 Stock
based
compensation78,50080,70074,50069,00071,2000.22%0.21%0.21
%0.22%0.27%785008070074500690007120000000 Inventory-
297,900-728,400-1,510,200-1,730,500-1,052,700-0.83%-1.93%-
4.18%-5.41%-4.05%-297900-728400-1510200-1730500-
57. 105270000000 Income taxes payable342,60080,400-
72,3001,20022,1000.95%0.21%-
0.20%0.00%0.08%34260080400-7230012002210000000 Other
working capital-699,100-815,300-1,115,000973,400-197,000-
1.94%-2.16%-3.08%3.04%-0.76%-699100-815300-
1115000973400-19700000000 Other non-cash items-
183,80029,600-226,700-709,500447,300-0.51%0.08%-0.63%-
2.22%1.72%-18380029600-226700-70950044730000000 Net
cash provided by operating
activities3,525,9003,254,3001,167,7002,326,3002,282,2009.78
%8.61%3.23%7.27%8.78%352590032543001167700232630022
8220000000Cash Flows From Investing Activities:
Investments in property, plant, and equipment-2,659,300-
2,375,300-2,121,000-1,680,800-1,312,800-7.37%-6.28%-5.87%-
5.25%-5.05%-2659300-2375300-2121000-1680800-
131280000000 Property, plant, and equipment
reductions1,091,500936,700799,500683,400714,2003.03%2.48
%2.21%2.13%2.75%109150093670079950068340071420000000
Acquisitions, net345,800-61,50030,200850,300-10,6000.96%-
0.16%0.08%2.66%-0.04%345800-6150030200850300-
1060000000 Purchases of investments-17,855,000-18,038,000-
922,200-586,900-12,557,300-49.51%-47.73%-2.55%-1.83%-
48.29%-17855000-18038000-922200-586900-1255730000000
Sales/Maturities of
investments1,022,500843,900240,30032,40011,091,8002.84%2.
23%0.66%0.10%42.65%102250084390024030032400110918000
0000 Other investing activities15,173,50013,873,500-
2,030,900-1,919,100-34,40042.07%36.71%-5.62%-5.99%-
0.13%1517350013873500-2030900-1919100-3440000000
Net cash used for investing activities-2,881,000-4,820,700-
4,004,100-2,620,700-2,109,100-7.99%-12.75%-11.07%-8.19%-
8.11%-2881000-4820700-4004100-2620700-210910000000Cash
Flows From Financing Activities: Debt
issued8,232,0004,734,00010,642,0005,655,0002,621,10022.82%
12.53%29.43%17.66%10.08%8232000473400010642000565500
0262110000000 Debt repayment-5,209,100-4,958,500-
58. 5,396,000-3,220,800-3,675,700-14.44%-13.12%-14.92%-
10.06%-14.13%-5209100-4958500-5396000-3220800-
367570000000 Common stock
issued149,500174,50061,000170,000129,1000.41%0.46%0.17%
0.53%0.50%1495001745006100017000012910000000
Common stock repurchased-2,731,100-1,531,400-1,587,700-
1,667,000-358,800-7.57%-4.05%-4.39%-5.21%-1.38%-2731100-
1531400-1587700-1667000-35880000000 Dividend paid-
786,000-752,900-697,900-593,100-483,500-2.18%-1.99%-
1.93%-1.85%-1.86%-786000-752900-697900-593100-
48350000000 Other financing
activities56,4002,740,800858,800-
204,500758,1000.16%7.25%2.38%-
0.64%2.92%564002740800858800-20450075810000000 Net
cash provided by (used for) financing activities-
288,300406,5003,880,200139,600-1,009,700-
0.80%1.08%10.73%0.44%-3.88%-
2883004065003880200139600-100970000000 Effect of
exchange rate changes-73,60011,700-38,80011,400-24,500-
0.20%0.03%-0.11%0.04%-0.09%-7360011700-3880011400-
2450000000 Net change in cash283,000-1,148,2001,005,000-
143,400-861,1000.78%-3.04%2.78%-0.45%-3.31%283000-
11482001005000-143400-86110000000 Cash at beginning of
period3,504,0004,652,2003,647,2003,790,6004,651,7009.72%12
.31%10.09%11.84%17.89%350400046522003647200379060046
5170000000 Cash at end of
period3,787,0003,504,0004,652,2003,647,2003,790,60010.50%9
.27%12.87%11.39%14.58%378700035040004652200364720037
9060000000Free Cash Flow Operating cash
flow3,525,9003,254,3001,167,7002,326,3002,282,200 Capital
expenditure-2,659,300-2,375,300-2,121,000-1,680,800-
1,312,800 Free cash flow866,600879,000-
953,300645,500969,40020142013201220112010Working
capital36,174,20034,397,40032,124,50027,596,90026,453,700W
C/Sales100.30%91.01%88.85%86.21%101.73%change in
WC1,776,8002,272,9004,527,6001,143,200change in
59. WC/Sales4.93%6.01%12.52%3.57%Cap Exp5,432,900-
932,5002,041,6003,626,500Cap Exp/Sales15.06%-
2.47%5.65%11.33%Depreciation
expenses1,306,5001,140,3001,004,200914,900Depreciation
expenses/Sales3.62%3.02%2.78%2.86%Other
assets1,496,9004,931,9001,465,3001,180,5002,125,400Other
assets/Sales4.15%13.05%4.05%3.69%change in OA-
3,435,0003,466,600284,800-944,900change in OA/Sales-
9.52%9.17%0.79%-
2.95%Dividends2.221.991.791.52EPS8.639.087.646.63Retentio
n ratio (RR)74.28%78.08%76.57%77.07%Invested capital
(IC)48,124,40045,718,10042,155,70036,406,90033,485,400NOP
LAT=EBIT(1-tax
rate)3,156,6285,130,2332,652,0102,276,272ROIC=NOPLAT/IC
6.90%12.17%7.28%6.80%g=RR*ROIC5.13%9.50%5.58%5.24%
Financial Statements - CATCaterpillar Inc.'s Income
Statementsfor the Years Ended October 31 (Dollars in Millions,
except per share data)Common-Size
Analysis2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morni
ng Star (Non-Adjusted)Check
Revenue55,18455,65665,87560,13842,588100.00%100.00%100.
00%100.00%100.00%551845565665875601384258800000Cost
of
revenue39,76740,72747,05543,57830,36772.06%73.18%71.43%
72.46%71.30%397674072747055435783036700000 Gross
profit15,41714,92918,82016,56012,22127.94%26.82%28.57%27
.54%28.70%154171492918820165601222100000Research and
development2,1352,0462,4662,2971,9053.87%3.68%3.74%3.82
%4.47%2135204624662297190500000Sales, General and
administrative5,6975,5475,9195,2034,24810.32%9.97%8.99%8.
65%9.97%5697554759195203424800000Other operating
expenses2,2571,7081,8621,9072,1054.09%3.07%2.83%3.17%4.
94%2257170818621907210500000 Total operating
expenses10,0899,30110,2479,4078,25818.28%16.71%15.56%15
.64%19.39%100899301102479407825800000 EBIT=
Operating
60. income5,3285,6288,5737,1533,9639.65%10.11%13.01%11.89%
9.31%5328562885737153396300000Interest
Expense4844654673963430.88%0.84%0.71%0.66%0.81%48446
546739634300000Other income (expense)239-35130-
321300.43%-0.06%0.20%-0.05%0.31%239-35130-3213000000
Net interest income -245-500-337-428-213-0.44%-0.90%-
0.51%-0.71%-0.50%-245-500-337-428-21300000 Income
before
taxes5,0835,1288,2366,7253,7509.21%9.21%12.50%11.18%8.8
1%5083512882366725375000000Provision for income
taxes1,3801,3192,5281,7209682.50%2.37%3.84%2.86%2.27%1
38013192528172096800000Other income8-614-24-240.01%-
0.01%0.02%-0.04%-0.06%8-614-24-2400000 Net income
from continuing
operations3,7113,8035,7224,9812,7586.72%6.83%8.69%8.28%6
.48%3711380357224981275800000Other-16-14-41-53-58-
0.03%-0.03%-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%-16-14-41-53-5800000
Net
income3,6953,7895,6814,9282,7006.70%6.81%8.62%8.19%6.34
%3695378956814928270000000Earnings per share:
Basic8.719.187.726.714.4 Diluted8.639.097.636.634.35Sales
growth rate-0.85%-15.51%9.54%41.21%Marginal tax
rate27.10%25.80%30.60%25.70%26.00%ValueLineCaterpillar
Inc.'s Balance Sheetfor the Years Ended October 31 (Dollars in
Millions)Common-Size Analysis - Divided by
Sales2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morning
Star (Non-Adjusted)Check Cash and cash
equivalents7,3416,0815,4903,0573,59213.30%10.93%8.33%5.0
8%8.43%7341608154903057359200000 Total
Cash7,3416,0815,4903,0573,59213.30%10.93%8.33%5.08%8.43
%7341608154903057359200000Receivables16,76417,17618,952
17,95316,79230.38%30.86%28.77%29.85%39.43%16764171761
8952179531679200000Inventories12,20512,62515,54714,5449,5
8722.12%22.88%28.17%26.36%17.37%12205126251554714544
958700000Deferred income
taxes1,7391,5531,5471,5809313.15%2.81%2.80%2.86%1.69%1
61. 73915531547158093100000Prepaid
expenses8189009889949081.48%1.62%1.50%1.65%2.13%81890
098899490800000 Total current
assets38,86738,33542,52438,12831,81070.43%68.88%64.55%63
.40%74.69%388673833542524381283181000000Gross property,
plant and
equipment31,57231,31629,93227,32624,90657.21%56.27%45.4
4%45.44%58.48%315723131629932273262490600000Accumula
ted Depreciation-14,995-14,241-13,471-12,931-12,367-27.17%-
25.59%-20.45%-21.50%-29.04%-14995-14241-13471-12931-
1236700000 Net property, plant and
equipment16,57717,07516,46114,39512,53930.04%30.68%24.9
9%23.94%29.44%165771707516461143951253900000Equity
and other
investments2572722721331640.47%0.49%0.41%0.22%0.39%25
727227213316400000Goodwill6,6946,9566,9427,0802,61412.13
%12.50%10.54%11.77%6.14%6694695669427080261400000Int
angible
assets3,0763,5964,0164,3688055.57%6.46%6.10%7.26%1.89%3
07635964016436880500000Deferred income
taxes1,4045942,0112,1572,4932.54%1.07%3.05%3.59%5.85%1
40459420112157249300000Other long-term
assets17,80618,06817,13015,18513,59532.27%32.46%26.00%25
.25%31.92%178061806817130151851359500000 Total
assets84,68184,89689,35681,44664,020153.45%152.54%135.64
%135.43%150.32%846818489689356814466402000000Short-
term
debt11,50111,03112,3919,6487,98120.84%19.82%18.81%16.04
%18.74%1150111031123919648798100000Accounts
payable6,5156,5606,7538,1615,85611.81%11.79%10.25%13.57
%13.75%6515656067538161585600000Accrued
liabilities5,9865,1155,5785,7964,55010.85%9.19%8.47%9.64%
10.68%5986511555785796455000000Deferred
revenues1,6972,3602,9782,6911,8313.08%4.24%4.52%4.47%4.
30%1697236029782691183100000Other current
liabilities2,1782,2312,0552,2651,8023.95%4.01%3.12%3.77%4.
62. 23%2178223120552265180200000 Total current
liabilities27,87727,29729,75528,56122,02050.52%49.05%45.17
%47.49%51.70%278772729729755285612202000000Long-term
debt27,78426,71927,75224,94420,43750.35%48.01%42.13%41.
48%47.99%277842671927752249442043700000Pensions and
other
benefits8,9636,97311,08510,9567,58416.24%12.53%16.83%18.
22%17.81%896369731108510956758400000Minority
interest80675046400.14%0.12%0.08%0.08%0.09%80675046400
0000Other long-term
liabilities3,2313,0293,1824,0563,1155.85%5.44%4.83%6.74%7.
31%3231302931824056311500000 Total non-current
liabilities40,05836,78842,06940,00231,17672.59%66.10%63.86
%66.52%73.20%400583678842069400023117600000Common
stock5,0164,7094,4814,2733,8889.09%8.46%6.80%7.11%9.13%
5016470944814273388800000Retained
earnings33,88731,85429,55825,21921,38461.41%57.23%44.87
%41.94%50.21%338873185429558252192138400000Treasury
stock-15,726-11,854-10,074-10,281-10,397-28.50%-21.30%-
15.29%-17.10%-24.41%-15726-11854-10074-10281-
1039700000Accumulated other comprehensive income-6,431-
3,898-6,433-6,328-4,051-11.65%-7.00%-9.77%-10.52%-9.51%-
6431-3898-6433-6328-405100000 Total stockholders'
equity16,74620,81117,53212,88310,82430.35%37.39%26.61%2
1.42%25.42%167462081117532128831082400000 Total
liabilities and stockholders'
equity84,68184,89689,35681,44664,020153.45%152.54%135.64
%135.43%150.32%846818489689356814466402000000check0.
000.000.000.000.00Caterpillar Inc.'s Consolidated Statement of
Cash Flowsfor the Years Ended October 31 (Dollars in
Millions)Common-Size Analysis - Divided by
Sales2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morning
Star (Non-Adjusted)Check Net
income3,7113,8035,7224,9812,7586.72%6.83%8.69%8.28%6.48
%3711380357224981275800000Cash Flows From Operating
Activities: Depreciation &
63. amortization3,1633,0872,8132,5272,2965.73%5.55%4.27%4.20
%5.39%3163308728132527229600000 Investment/asset
impairment
charges00580000.00%0.00%0.88%0.00%0.00%58000000
Inventory1012,658-1,149-2,927-2,6670.18%4.78%-1.74%-
4.87%-6.26%1012658-1149-2927-266700000 Accounts
payable222134-1,8681,5552,5700.40%0.24%-
2.84%2.59%6.03%222134-18681555257000000 Accrued
liabilities891-1081833089641.61%-
0.19%0.28%0.51%2.26%891-10818330896400000 Other
working capital-584135-849109-1,381-1.06%0.24%-
1.29%0.18%-3.24%-584135-849109-138100000 Other non-
cash items553482-1914574691.00%0.87%-
0.29%0.76%1.10%553482-19145746900000 Net cash
provided by operating
activities8,05710,1915,2417,0105,00914.60%18.31%7.96%11.6
6%11.76%80571019152417010500900000Cash Flows From
Investing Activities: Investments in property, plant, and
equipment-1,840-1,924-1,726-1,409-1,011-3.33%-3.46%-2.62%-
2.34%-2.37%-1840-1924-1726-1409-101100000 Property,
plant, and equipment
reductions9048441,1171,3541,4691.64%1.52%1.70%2.25%3.45
%90484411171354146900000 Acquisitions, net169170581-
7,808-1,1260.31%0.31%0.88%-12.98%-2.64%169170581-7808-
112600000 Purchases of investments-825-402-12,412-336-
217-1.49%-0.72%-18.84%-0.56%-0.51%-825-402-12412-336-
21700000 Sales/Maturities of
investments8104499,4332472281.47%0.81%14.32%0.41%0.54%
810449943324722800000 Other investing activities-2,845-
4,183-3,183-3,475-938-5.16%-7.52%-4.83%-5.78%-2.20%-
2845-4183-3183-3475-93800000 Net cash used for investing
activities-3,627-5,046-6,190-11,427-1,595-6.57%-9.07%-
9.40%-19.00%-3.75%-3627-5046-6190-11427-159500000Cash
Flows From Financing Activities: Debt
issued10,6499,32816,01515,4608,32419.30%16.76%24.31%25.7
1%19.55%1064993281601515460832400000 Debt repayment-
64. 9,248-10,870-11,099-10,593-12,461-16.76%-19.53%-16.85%-
17.61%-29.26%-9248-10870-11099-10593-1246100000
Common stock
issued239128521232960.43%0.23%0.08%0.20%0.70%23912852
12329600000 Common stock repurchased-4,238-2,000-7.68%-
3.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%-4238-200000000 Dividend paid-
1,627-1,124-1,623-1,162-1,084-2.95%-2.02%-2.46%-1.93%-
2.55%-1627-1124-1623-1162-108400000 Other financing
activities1,229272041383122.23%0.05%0.31%0.23%0.73%1229
2720413831200000 Net cash provided by (used for)
financing activities-2,996-4,5113,5493,966-4,613-5.43%-
8.11%5.39%6.59%-10.83%-2996-451135493966-461300000
Effect of exchange rate changes-174-43-167-84-76-0.32%-
0.08%-0.25%-0.14%-0.18%-174-43-167-84-7600000 Net
change in cash1,2605912,433-535-1,2752.28%1.06%3.69%-
0.89%-2.99%12605912433-535-127500000 Cash at beginning
of
period6,0815,4903,0573,5924,86711.02%9.86%4.64%5.97%11.
43%6081549030573592486700000 Cash at end of
period7,3416,0815,4903,0573,59213.30%10.93%8.33%5.08%8.
43%7341608154903057359200000Free Cash Flow Operating
cash flow8,05710,1915,2417,0105,009 Capital expenditure-
3,379-4,446-5,076-3,924-2,586 Free cash
flow4,6785,7451653,0862,423
Beta Estimation -
DEMonthDeereMarketRetRm10/1/0945.551036.1911/2/0953.51
1095.6317.48%5.74%12/1/0954.091115.101.08%1.78%1/4/1049
.951073.87-7.65%-
3.70%2/1/1057.31104.4914.71%2.85%3/1/1059.461169.433.77
%5.88%4/1/1059.821186.690.61%1.48%5/3/1057.681089.41-
3.58%-8.20%6/1/1055.681030.71-3.47%-
5.39%7/1/1066.681101.6019.76%6.88%8/2/1063.271049.33-
5.11%-
4.74%9/1/1069.781141.2010.29%8.76%10/1/1076.81183.2610.0
6%3.69%11/1/1074.71180.55-2.73%-
0.23%12/1/1083.051257.6411.18%6.53%1/3/1190.91286.129.45
68. ntsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower
95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-0.00693780340.0076934146-
0.90178468270.3709009326-0.02233784580.0084622389-
0.02233784580.0084622389X Variable
11.66534383450.19813517888.405089113401.2687331862.0619
544831.2687331862.061954483Smoothing
Beta1.4457803691Unlevered
Beta0.868586204920142013201220112010Total debt
ratio0.80224607650.75486477570.80379605170.8418215750.83
09278351Inconsistent Interest-bearing debt51479Market cap
(12/31/2014)56474.01
Financial Statements - DE OLDDeere & Company's Income
Statementsfor the Years Ended October 31 (Dollars in Millions,
except per share data)Common-Size
Analysis2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morni
ng Star (Non-Adjusted)Check
Revenue3606737795361573201226005100.00%100.00%100.00
%100.00%100.00%360673779536157320122600500000Cost of
revenue247762566725130220341774368.69%67.91%69.50%68.
83%68.23%247762566725130220341774300000 Gross
profit1129112128110279978826231.31%32.09%30.50%31.17%
31.77%1129112128110279978826200000Research and
development145214771434122610524.03%3.91%3.97%3.83%4.
05%1452147714341226105200000Sales, General and
administrative3608395236623362296910.00%10.46%10.13%10.
50%11.42%3608395236623362296900000Other operating
expenses7694741197116712162.13%1.25%3.31%3.65%4.68%76
947411971167121600000 Total operating
expenses5829590362935755523716.16%15.62%17.40%17.98%2
0.14%58305903629357555237-10000 EBIT= Operating
income5462622547344223302515.14%16.47%13.09%13.19%11.
63%5461622547344223302510000Interest
Expense6647417837598111.84%1.96%2.17%2.37%3.12%66474
178375981100000Other income
(expense)007837598110.00%0.00%2.17%2.37%3.12%78375981
100000 Net interest income -664-741000-1.84%-
69. 1.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%-664-74100000000 Income before
taxes4798548447344223302513.30%14.51%13.09%13.19%11.6
3%4797548347344223302511000Provision for income
taxes162619461659142411624.51%5.15%4.59%4.45%4.47%162
6194616591424116200000Other income-80-3911-0.02%0.00%-
0.01%0.03%0.04%-80-391100000 Net income from
continuing
operations316435383072280818748.77%9.36%8.50%8.77%7.21
%3163353830722808187410000Other-20-7-8-9-0.01%0.00%-
0.02%-0.02%-0.03%-20-7-8-900000 Net
income316235383065280018658.77%9.36%8.48%8.75%7.17%3
162353730652800186501000Earnings per share:
Basic8.719.187.726.714.4 Diluted8.639.097.636.634.35Sales
growth rate-4.57%4.53%12.95%23.10%Marginal tax
rate33.90%35.60%35.00%33.40%41.00%ValueLineDeere &
Company's Balance Sheetfor the Years Ended October 31
(Dollars in Millions)Common-Size Analysis - Divided by
Sales2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morning
Star (Non-Adjusted)Check Cash and cash
equivalents3787350446523647379110.50%9.27%12.87%11.39%
14.58%3787350446523647379100000Short-term
investments1215162514707872283.37%4.30%4.07%2.46%0.88
%12151625147078722800000 Total
Cash5002512961224434401913.87%13.57%16.93%13.85%15.4
5%5002512961234434401800-
101Receivables3278375837993294243499.09%9.94%10.51%10.
29%93.63%32783758379932942434900000Inventories42104935
51704371306311.67%13.06%14.30%13.65%11.78%4210493551
704371306300000Other current
assets33555312812762724207193693.04%82.76%76.41%75.62
%7.44%33555312812762724207193600000 Total current
assets4604545103427183630633367127.67%119.34%118.15%1
13.41%128.31%460444510342719363073336710-1-10Gross
property, plant and
equipment15344111261283911658869142.54%29.44%35.51%36
.42%33.42%15344111261283911658869100000Accumulated
70. Depreciation-5751-5659-5299-5156-4900-15.95%-14.97%-
14.66%-16.11%-18.84%-5751-5659-5299-5156-490000000 Net
property, plant and
equipment9593546775406502379126.60%14.46%20.85%20.31%
14.58%9593546775406502379100000Equity and other
investments3032212152022440.84%0.58%0.59%0.63%0.94%30
322121520224400000Goodwill79184592110009992.19%2.24%2
.55%3.12%3.84%791845921100099900000Intangible
assets69771051271170.19%0.20%0.29%0.40%0.45%697710512
711700000Deferred income
taxes277723253280285924777.70%6.15%9.07%8.93%9.53%277
7232532802859247700000Prepaid pension
benefit26255120301470.73%1.46%0.06%0.09%0.57%26255120
3014700000Other long-term
assets149749321465118021254.15%13.05%4.05%3.69%8.17%1
497493214651180212500000 Total
assets6133759521562644820643267170.06%157.48%155.61%1
50.59%166.38%613365952156266482074326710-2-10Short-
term
debt125781289899679630753434.87%34.13%27.57%30.08%28.
97%125781289899679630753400000Accounts
payable002481235123830.00%0.00%6.86%7.34%9.16%2481235
1238300000Deferred income
taxes00001440.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.55%14400000Taxes
payable0001661540.00%0.00%0.00%0.52%0.59%16615400000
Accrued
liabilities003712457138180.00%0.00%10.27%14.28%14.68%37
124571381800000Deferred
revenues0045234500.00%0.00%1.25%1.08%0.00%45234500000
Other current
liabilities86559080247949033024.00%24.02%6.86%1.53%1.27
%86559080247949033000000 Total current
liabilities212332197819091175531436358.87%58.15%52.80%5
4.83%55.23%21233219781909117552143640001-1Long-term
debt243812157822453169601681467.60%57.09%62.10%52.98
%64.66%243812157822453169601681400000Deferred taxes
71. liabilities1611600000.45%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%1611600000
0Pensions and other
benefits6496541776956712578518.01%14.33%21.28%20.97%2
2.25%6496541776956712578500000Minority
interest322015130.01%0.01%0.06%0.05%0.05%3220151300000
Other long-term
liabilities012016416800.00%0.32%0.45%0.52%0.00%12016416
800000 Total non-current
liabilities310412727730332238552261286.06%72.17%83.89%7
4.52%86.95%310412727730332238552261200000Common
stock3675352433523252310610.19%9.32%9.27%10.16%11.94%
3675352433523252310600000Retained
earnings220041964616875145191235361.01%51.98%46.67%45.
35%47.50%220041964616875145191235300000Treasury stock-
12834-10211-8814-7293-5790-35.58%-27.02%-24.38%-22.78%-
22.26%-12834-10211-8814-7293-579000000Accumulated other
comprehensive income-3782-2693-4572-3680-3377-10.49%-
7.13%-12.64%-11.50%-12.99%-3783-2693-4572-3678-3380100-
23 Total stockholders'
equity90631026668416798629225.13%27.16%18.92%21.24%24
.20%90631026668426800629000-1-22 Total liabilities and
stockholders'
equity6133759521562644820643267170.06%157.48%155.61%1
50.59%166.38%613365952156266482074326710-2-
10check0.000.000.000.000.00Deere & Company's Consolidated
Statement of Cash Flowsfor the Years Ended October 31
(Dollars in Millions)Common-Size Analysis - Divided by
Sales2014201320122011201020142013201220112010Morning
Star (Non-Adjusted)Check Net
income316435383072280818748.77%9.36%8.50%8.77%7.21%3
163353830722808187410000Cash Flows From Operating
Activities: Depreciation &
amortization1306114010049159153.62%3.02%2.78%2.86%3.52
%13061140100491591500000 Investment/asset impairment
charges9610233270.27%0.27%0.09%0.00%0.10%961023327000
00 Deferred income taxes-280-173-92175-0.78%-0.46%-
72. 0.25%0.00%0.67%-280-173-9217500000 Stock based
compensation78817469710.22%0.21%0.20%0.22%0.27%788174
697100000 Inventory-298-728-1510-1730-1053-0.83%-1.93%-
4.18%-5.40%-4.05%-298-728-1510-1730-105300000 Income
taxes payable34380-721220.95%0.21%-
0.20%0.00%0.08%34380-7212200000 Other working capital-
699-815-1115973-197-1.94%-2.16%-3.08%3.04%-0.76%-699-
815-1115973-19700000 Other non-cash items-18430-227-
710447-0.51%0.08%-0.63%-2.22%1.72%-18430-227-
71044700000 Net cash provided by operating
activities352632551167232622819.78%8.61%3.23%7.27%8.77
%3526325411682326228201-10-1Cash Flows From Investing
Activities: Investments in property, plant, and equipment-
2659-2375-2121-1681-1313-7.37%-6.28%-5.87%-5.25%-5.05%-
2659-2375-2121-1681-131300000 Property, plant, and
equipment
reductions10929378006837143.03%2.48%2.21%2.13%2.75%10
9293780068371400000 Acquisitions, net346-6230850-
110.96%-0.16%0.08%2.66%-0.04%346-6230850-1100000
Purchases of investments-17855-18038-922-587-12557-49.51%-
47.73%-2.55%-1.83%-48.29%-17855-18038-922-587-
1255700000 Sales/Maturities of
investments102284424032110922.83%2.23%0.66%0.10%42.65
%1022844240321109200000 Other investing
activities1517413874-2031-1919-3442.07%36.71%-5.62%-
5.99%-0.13%1517413874-2031-1919-3400000 Net cash used
for investing activities-2880-4820-4004-2622-2109-7.99%-
12.75%-11.07%-8.19%-8.11%-2881-4821-4004-2621-2109110-
10Cash Flows From Financing Activities: Debt
issued82324734106425655262122.82%12.53%29.43%17.67%10
.08%82324734106425655262100000 Debt repayment-5209-
4958-5396-3221-3676-14.44%-13.12%-14.92%-10.06%-14.14%-
5209-4958-5396-3221-367600000 Common stock
issued150174611701290.42%0.46%0.17%0.53%0.50%15017461
17012900000 Common stock repurchased-2731-1531-1588-
1667-359-7.57%-4.05%-4.39%-5.21%-1.38%-2731-1531-1588-
73. 1667-35900000 Dividend paid-786-753-698-593-484-2.18%-
1.99%-1.93%-1.85%-1.86%-786-753-698-593-48400000 Other
financing activities562741859-2047580.16%7.25%2.38%-
0.64%2.91%562741859-20475800000 Net cash provided by
(used for) financing activities-2884073880140-1011-
0.80%1.08%10.73%0.44%-3.89%-2884063880140-10100100-1
Effect of exchange rate changes-7412-3911-24-0.21%0.03%-
0.11%0.03%-0.09%-7412-3911-2400000 Net change in
cash284-11461004-145-8630.79%-3.03%2.78%-0.45%-
3.32%283-11481005-143-86112-1-2-2 Cash at beginning of
period350446523647379146529.72%12.31%10.09%11.84%17.8
9%3504465236473791465200000 Cash at end of
period3787350446523647379110.50%9.27%12.87%11.39%14.5
8%3787350446523647379100000Free Cash Flow Operating
cash flow35263254116823262282 Capital expenditure-2659-
2375-2121-1681-1313 Free cash flow867879-953646969
Multiple
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1010
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WACC
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RONIC
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(
NOPLAT
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10
10
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-
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10
Valuation of Deere & Company
I. COMPANY OVERVIEW
Background
Deere & Company was founded in 1837 by, blacksmith and
inventor, John Deere. For over 135 years it has been symbolized
by the yellow leaping deer trademark. Deere & Co. provides
various types of equipment to customers around the globe;
however, their six areas of focus are the United States and
Canada, Europe, Brazil, Russia, India, and China. These focus
areas provide Deere & Co. with a positive outlook on future
sales as they will be the areas responsible for 75% of our
world’s future growth.[footnoteRef:1] The company is
comprised of three main business segments. The Agriculture
and Turf segment provides agriculture and turf equipment such
as utility tractors, loaders, and application equipment. It also
supplies hay and forage equipment including mowers and golf
75. course equipment. The Construction and Forestry segment
supplies equipment such as backhoe loaders, articulated dump
trucks, and log skidders. Lastly, the Financial Services segment
provides support in financing sales and leases of various types
of new and used equipment.[footnoteRef:2] [1: John Deere
website-About us,
http://www.deere.com/en_US/corporate/our_company/about_us/
] [2: Yahoo Finance-DE,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DE+Profile]
Awards and Recognition
Throughout its existence, Deere & Company has prided itself on
several key values, integrity, quality, commitment and
innovation.[footnoteRef:3] In maintaining these values, the
company has recently been acknowledged for its achievements
by receiving several awards. [3: John Deere website-About us,
http://www.deere.com/en_US/corporate/our_company/about_us/
]
· 30 April 2015 – United Way Worldwide recognized Deere as
one of two companies for their excellent employee engagement.
They were given this honor through their overall participation
of more than 2,000 employees during United Way’s Day of
Caring in 2014.
· 27 April 2015 – Deere & Co. received the Dealer’s Choice
Award for Full-line Manufacturers from the North American
Equipment Dealers Association. They received this recognition
for their exemplary performance in 12 operational categories.
· 9 March 2015 – The Ethisphere Institute recognized Deere &
Co. as being among the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the
ninth consecutive year for their ethical company culture and
transparency.
· 12 November 2014 – The 2014 Global List of Top Companies
for Leadership listed Deere & Co. as 16th in the world and 10th
of the companies based in North America for their ability to
cultivate a strong leadership environment. This was the third
76. consecutive time that the company earned a spot on this list.
· 28 February 2013 – Deere & Co. was ranked 40th on
FORTUNE magazine’s Top 50 Most Admired Companies list,
which was created through an assessment of over 1,400
companies worldwide.[footnoteRef:4] [4: John Deere website-
News & Media,
http://www.deere.com/en_US/corporate/our_company/news_and
_media]
Recent News
It was announced on April 20, 2015 that “John Deere Power
Solution
s will extend its generator drive power solutions with the
introduction of four new PowerTech™ prime power generator
drive engines”. These innovative engines meet the Final Tier 4
emissions regulations set by the U.S Environmental Protection
Agency. Therefore, they allow more options to customers,
especially those with space-constrained installations. The
engines were showcased on April 20-25 in Paris at the
INTERMAT.[footnoteRef:5] [5: John Deere website-News &
Media,
http://www.deere.com/en_US/corporate/our_company/news_and
_media/
press_releases/2015/engines- drivetrain/2015apr20-new-engine-
lineup.page]
77. On April 1, 2015, Deere announced its expansion of its 6M and
6R Series Tractors for the 2015 model. This expansion will
“offer producers a wider range of horsepower, frame sizes,
transmissions, hydraulics and other options”.[footnoteRef:6] On
the same date, Deere & Co. announced that its L-Series
Skidders will be entering the market. This new equipment
provides “features that promise to increase uptime and
productivity, while lowering daily operating costs for
loggers”.[footnoteRef:7] [6: John Deere website-News &
Media,
http://www.deere.com/en_US/corporate/our_company/news_and
_media/
press_releases/2015/agriculture/2015april1-6M-6R.page] [7:
John Deere website-News & Media,
http://www.deere.com/en_US/corporate/our_company/news_and
_media/
press_releases/2015/forestry/2015apr1-l-series-skidders.page]
II. INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
Investment Opportunities
Although demand for agricultural equipment is currently low,
the forecasted trends in both population size and rising living
standards produce a strong outlook for Deere’s business model.
As population increases, urbanization is also forecasted to
increase, which would leave smaller populations in rural areas
78. and a larger need to mechanize farming. With the company’s
strategy being to serve a larger global customer base, Deere
may be able to serve the rising global food needs with their
mechanical agriculture equipment.[footnoteRef:8] [8: John
Deere website-Why Invest, http://investor.deere.com/our-
company/investors-relations/why-invest/default.aspx]
Deere & Company’s actual earnings have exceeded analyst
estimates for the past four quarters. In fact, in the past two
quarters, Q4 2014 and Q1 2015, they surpassed estimates by
0.54 and 0.29 respectively.[footnoteRef:9] Even though the
earnings estimates have been declining for the past four
quarters, we can still see a positive outlook on Deere’s position.
With sales having been decreasing for the past four years, the
company has still been able to restructure and meet each
earnings estimate, which speaks to the company’s ability even
during a downturn of demand in their industry. [9: Yahoo
Finance-Analyst Estimates,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=DE+Analyst+Estimates]
Deere & Company’s one year stock chart shows a positive
outlook for the company’s overall position. In November, a
descending triangle began to form. Although this would usually
forecast a continuing declination, the breakout from the pattern
can be seen as a confirmation that the main upward trend will
79. continue.[footnoteRef:10] However, these patterns are only
vaguely represented, so reliance on them should be taken with
due care. [10: Jack D. Schwager, Getting Started in Technical
Analysis]
Investment Risks
The first major risk factor to take into account when analyzing
Deere & Company is their short term growth rate. Analysts
currently estimate their sales growth to be -16.80% in the
current year and -1.80% in the following year. They also
estimate overall growth of the company to be -41.10%, whereas
the industry estimate is 9.20%.[footnoteRef:11] Compiling these
forecasts with the historical sales growth rates for the past four
years, we notice that the trend is continually decreasing. [11:
Yahoo Finance-Analyst Estimates,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=DE+Analyst+Estimates]
Focusing on individual segments of the company, the
company’s agriculture equipment sales can be related to several
factors that may produce uncertainties for farmers. These
uncertainties would thus affect their consumer confidence and
willingness to buy. Some of these factors include “worldwide
economic conditions, demand for agricultural products, world
grain stocks, weather conditions, soil conditions, harvest yields,
prices for commodities and livestock, crop and livestock
80. production expenses, availability of transport for crops, and the
growth and sustainability of non-food uses for some
crops”.[footnoteRef:12] With the current drought in California,
one of the major growing regions of the United
States[footnoteRef:13], agriculture equipment sales in the
Western region could be severely impacted. [12: John Deere-
Q4 Earnings,
http://investor.deere.com/files/doc_financials/quarterly_earning
s/2014_
fourthquarter.pdf] [13: USDA,
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP/Major
WorldCropAreas.pdf]
In terms of the entire business, the company is affected by
several factors including “general economic conditions in the
global markets in which the company operates, especially
material changes in economic activity in these markets;
customer confidence in general economic conditions; foreign
currency exchange rates and their volatility, especially
fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar; interest rates; and
inflation and deflation rates”.[footnoteRef:14] The current
fluctuations in the dollar could have an adverse affect on
Deere’s exports. [14: John Deere-Q4 Earnings,
http://investor.deere.com/files/doc_financials/quarterly_earning
s/2014_
81. fourthquarter.pdf]
III. HISTORICAL FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Consolidated Statements of Earnings and Balance Sheet
Consolidated Statement of Earnings
· See Appendix A1 for the statements which are based on
October 2009 to October 2014.
Consolidated Balance Sheet
· See Appendix A2 for the statements which are based on
October 2009 to October 2014.[footnoteRef:15] [15:
Morningstar, http://financials.morningstar.com/income-
statement/is.html?t=DE®ion=USA&culture=en_US]
Common-Sized Statements of Earnings and Balance Sheet
Purpose of Common-Sized Statements
In performing the common-sized statements, we take each line
item and express it as a percentage of revenues. This type of
presentation of the financial data allows for a clearer
representation of the information and the ability to compare
across companies, the industry, as well as trends within the
company itself. This type of analysis allows an analyst to
overcome differences in firm sizes that may arise from cross
sectional and time series analysis.[footnoteRef:16] Furthermore,
in presenting the items as percentages, it allows for easier
recognition of how much certain expenses account for revenue.
82. [16: Ration Analysis,
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~hfried/download/Ratios.pdf]
Discussion of Margins and Sales Growth
In looking at Deere & Company’s consolidated statement of
earnings, we notice that the gross margin is fairly stable. It has
fluctuated between 30.5% and 32.1% from the year 2010 to the
year 2014 (See Appendix A1). This shows stability within
Deere. Even as demand in their industry is shifting and
uncertainty is increasing, they have still been able to keep costs
of revenue to a relatively constant proportion of sales.
EBIT is a measure of profit before interest and taxes, and its
margin can be used to determine the company’s financial
health.[footnoteRef:17] Deere & Company’s EBIT margin was
showing steady growth from 2010 until 2013 as it increased
from 11.6% to 16.5% (See Appendix A1). These increases were
due to decreasing sales, general, and administrative expenses as
well as other operating expenses. However, in 2014, EBIT
margin actually decreased to 15.2%. This decrease was largely
attributable to a lower gross margin, but increases in R&D and
other operating expenses also contributed to the difference.
[17: Koller, Goedhart, and Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and
Managing the Value of Companies]
83. Net profit margin is an overall determinant of the profitability
of a company, as it accounts for income after interest, taxes,
and gains or losses from discontinued operations. Deere’s net
profit margin followed the same pattern as its EBIT margin,
going from 7.2% in 2010 to 9.4% in 2014 (See Appendix A1).
This just shows that its interest and tax expenses were
consistent year to year, and had relatively the same impact on
earnings from 2010 until 2014.
Deere’s sales growth rate has been steadily decreasing for the
past four years. In 2011, sales growth was at 23.1%, but by
2012 the rate was almost cut in half, falling to 13.0% (See
Appendix A1). Although this initial decrease is not surprising
because that significant of a growth rate is not sustainable, by
2014, the growth rate was -4.6%. This decline does not prove to
give a positive outlook for Deere.
IV. HISTORICAL NOPLAT, IC, AND FCF
Calculation of Historical NOPLAT
In order to value a company, there are two main factors that are
needed for the calculations, return on invested capital and free
cash flow. These factors are used to measure a company’s
operating performance; however, the financial statements
include operating performance, non-operating performance, and
capital structure. Therefore, we must reorganize the financial
statements in order to find solely operating
84. performance.[footnoteRef:18] This reorganization results in
NOPLAT or net operating profit less adjusted taxes. NOPLAT is
a determinant of “the profits generated from the company’s core
operations after subtracting the income taxes related to the core
operations”.[footnoteRef:19] In order to calculate this essential
amount, we began by adjusting EBIT with adding back
amortization, making it EBITA. Then we deducted the operating
cash taxes from EBITA to find NOPLAT. Operating cash taxes
can be calculated by taking the reported tax amount and
adjusting it for any tax shields on interest paid/received and
further adjusting it for any increases or decreases in deferred
taxes. We want to remove tax shields from free cash flow in
order to calculate cash flows as if the company had no debt and
was completely financed with equity. This allows for easier
comparison of operating performances across companies, and
the tax shields will then be included in the cost of capital
through calculating WACC.[footnoteRef:20] [18: Koller,
Goedhart, and Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the
Value of Companies] [19: Koller, Goedhart, and Wessels,
Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies]
[20: Koller, Goedhart, and Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and
Managing the Value of Companies
]
Once we determined the value for NOPLAT, it was necessary
85. we reconcile it to net income in order to substantiate the
amount. The reconciliation process required adding back to net
income the changes to deferred taxes and then adjusting the
amount further with any after-tax interest paid and gains/losses
from discontinued operations. Finally, we adjusted for any
after-tax interest received (See Appendix E1 for all
calculations). What we found form our calculations was that
operating profit increased from 2011 to 2013, going from
$2,276,272 to $5,130,233 (in thousands) respectively. Then in
2014, NOPLAT declined. This pattern resembles that of the net
income, which is to be expected.
Calculation of Historical Invested Capital
When investors are analyzing a company’s ability to create
value, they must look at the key factor that drives this ability,
its return on invested capital (ROIC). Invested capital can be
defined as “the cumulative amount the business has invested in
its core operations—primarily property, plant, and equipment
and working capital”.[footnoteRef:21] In order to calculate
Deere’s invested capital, and ultimately its return on invested
capital, first we had to find the operating working capital by
determining the difference between operating current assets and
operating current liabilities. Next, we found the total operating
invested capital including goodwill. Finally, we added the total
non-operating assets to find total funds invested in order to
reconcile the amount with the debt and debt equivalents, or in
86. other words the interest-bearing debt, and the equity and equity
equivalents. What we found was that Deere’s operating invested
capital has been growing steadily over the past five years. [21:
Koller, Goedhart, and Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and
Managing the Value of Companies]
Return on invested capital, on the other hand, has not had the
same pattern. ROIC can be defined “as the return the company
earns on each dollar invested in the business”. ROIC was
determined by dividing the operating invested capital by the
NOPLAT. Deere’s ROIC increased from 2011 to 2013 going
from 6.80% to 12.17% respectively. However, in 2014, ROIC
dropped significantly to 6.90% (See Appendix E2 for all
calculations). We do not like to see ROIC drop as “the longer a
company can sustain a high ROIC, the more value the company
will create”.[footnoteRef:22] [22: Koller, Goedhart, and
Wessels, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of
Companies]
Calculation of Historical Free Cash Flow
After determining ROIC, our next step was finding free cash
flow, or “the cash flow generated by the core operations of the
business after deducting investments in new
capital”.[footnoteRef:23] Because free cash flow encompasses
the cash flow available to all investors, it must be discounted
87. using WACC in order to account for both the capital
providers.[footnoteRef:24] We began our calculation of
Deere’s free cash flow by initially finding the gross cash flow
with adding back the non-cash depreciation expense. Next, we
calculated the free cash flow by adjusting gross cash flow for
operating working capital, capital expenditure, other assets,
intangibles and goodwill, and accumulated comprehensive
income. From 2011 to 2012, free cash flow saw a significant
decrease; however, 2013 saw a complete turnaround as free cash
flow went from [23: Koller, Goedhart, and Wessels, Valuation:
Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies] [24: Chen
and Jassim, "Pedagogical-cum-Analytical Tool for Teaching
Business Valuation."]
-$3,990,290 to $3,446,223 (in thousands). 2014 again saw a
decrease to -$339,572 (in thousands), due to large investments
in capital expenditure during that year (See Appendix E3 for all
calculations). After determining free cash flow, it was necessary
we find cash flow to investors in order to reconcile the amount.
We reconciled Deere’s cash flows by adjusting financing flows
to find flows to debt holders, and then adding in the flows to
equity holders.
COMPUTATIONS OF INTRINSIC VALUE
Assumptions
Panel A – Operating Assumptions
88. To begin our valuation of Deere, it was necessary that we make
several operating assumptions. These included both estimations
of ratios and forecasts based off of those estimates. First of all,
we found our EBIT/sales for the year 2014, or in other words,
our operating income as a percentage of revenue. This value
was simply Deere’s current year EBIT divided by revenues, and
was found to be 15.14%. As future operating income is essential
to cash flow, we forecasted the next ten years and found the
most reasonable estimate of the trend would be for EBIT/sales
to increase in 2015 and then slowly decline for the following
nine years (See Appendix F1). This is due to our assumption
that Deere will need to increase research and development
expenses in the future. With the declining demand in their
industry, they will need to be extremely innovative in
developing new products.
Our next line item in our valuation model is NOPLAT/sales.
This value can easily be found by dividing NOPLAT by our
total sales. Rather than estimating this value in future years, we
were able to calculate it with our estimated future sales and
estimated future NOPLAT. These line items will be described in
more detail in the Panel B section of the report.
Depreciation/sales was our next key item requiring forecasted
future values. This value could be found by taking current year
depreciation and amortization expense from our Statement of
Cash Flows and dividing it by our revenues for 2014. We
89. calculated this percentage to be 3.62% and forecasted that it
would remain stable for the next five years and then slowly
decline (See Appendix F1). We made this assumption based off
of recent capital expenditures. In 2014, Deere made its largest
investment in capital expenditures for the past five years. We
believe the depreciation on these assets will cause depreciation
expense to remain stable in relation to sales for several years,
and that large future capital expenditures are not likely, causing
depreciation expense to decrease in the more distant future.
The next estimation that was essential to our valuation was
working capital/sales, which was found by taking working
capital and dividing it by sales. Our percentage in 2014 was
found to be 100.30%. In forecasting future working
capital/sales, we believed it would be practical to estimate a
declination in the trend. In the past five years the percentage
has dropped as low as 86.21%; therefore, we found it reasonable
to assume the percentage would decline to 93.5% in the next ten
years (See Appendix F1). Our next line item, working capital,
was then found by applying our forecasted Working
Capital/Sales to our forecasted sales from Panel B.
Our valuation model required we determine capital
expenditures/sales. This value was simply capital expenditures
as a percentage of sales, and was found to be 15.06% in 2014.
As stated before, we assume that future capital expenditures
will be minimal, so we believed a reasonable estimation in the