• Nickel smelter developers are putting projects on hold as they struggle to get financing with metal prices near their lowest in more than a decade, industry and government stakeholders
said on Wednesday.
5. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ PRECIOUS METAL
• Nickel smelter developers are putting projects on hold as they struggle to get financing with
metal prices near their lowest in more than a decade, industry and government stakeholders
said on Wednesday.
• New U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell last week while a gauge of U.S.
economic activity rebounded in October, signs of a healthy labor market and economy that
could give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month.
• Commodity prices could see another sharp drop as an adjustment in supplies from energy,
metals and agricultural producers remains insufficient in the face of weaker demand at key
consumers like China, U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs said.
GOLD
Extending gains for the third straight day, gold prices advanced by 0.27% to Rs 25,530 per 10
grams in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions, taking positive cues from
overseas markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in far-month February
next year gained Rs 68, or 0.27%, to Rs 25,530 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 23
lots.In a similar fashion, the metal for delivery in December traded higher by Rs 56, or 0.22%,
to Rs 25,347 per 10 grams in 1,077 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in gold futures to a firming
global trend where it held an advance from a five-year low as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman
Stanley Fischer said that US policy makers have done their best to prepare international
markets for the first interest rate increase since 2006. Meanwhile, gold rose 0.35% to $1,085.60
an ounce in Singapore. In the international market, gold fell 0.88%, to $1,145.50 an ounce in
New York yesterday. Gold continued to witness a massive sell off. The yellow metal settled at
its lowest price this year, nearing the $1200 per ounce mark and logged its third straight weekly
decline. Other precious metals also dropped heavily amid soaring equities and continued
strength in the US dollar. Silver tumbled to a four year low, Platinum fell to a fresh 2014 lows
while palladium slumped to a three-month low. Gold fell as the US dollar rallied post the Fed
decision where it noted that that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy
to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions.
Spot gold firmed on Friday but was still set to finish the week
trapped near its cheapest in more than five years as the metal struggles against a stronger dollar
ahead of a widely expected US rate rise next month."We're still negative and target $985 in the
short run," said analyst Dominic Schnider of UBS Wealth Management in Hong Kong. "The
rationale is fairly clear. The Fed is going to hike, the dollar is going to see further strength and
in that environment it's going to be fairly difficult to sustain current prices."A stronger dollar
6. hurts demand for commodities priced in the greenback by making them costly for holders of
other currencies. Spot gold had edged up by 0.4% to $1,085.80 an ounce by 0609 GMT. Prices
hit the weakest in more than five years at $1,064.95 an ounce on Wednesday and are set to
close the week little changed. US gold rose 0.7% to $1,086 an ounce. New US applications for
unemployment benefits fell last week while a gauge of US economic activity rebounded in
October, signs of a healthy economy that could give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise
interest rates next month. The dollar steadied on Friday after a recent rally that took the
greenback to 7-month highs against a basket of peers. Gold could come under further pressure
from news that Chinese banks were turning more cautious on gold lending.
SILVER
Silver was up 0.4 percent at $14.23 an ounce. New U.S. applications for unemployment
benefits fell last week while a gauge of U.S. economic activity rebounded in October, signs of a
healthy labor market and economy that could give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise
interest rates next month. Other data on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic
region picked up slightly in November after two straight months of declines, another indication
that the worst of the manufacturing rout was probably over.
LEAD
Lead prices edged up by 0.48% to Rs 105.30 per kg in futures trading today as traders built up
fresh bets due to pick up in demand in the domestic spot market. At Multi Commodity
Exchange, lead for delivery in November month moved up by 50 paise, or 0.48% to Rs 105.30
per kg in business turnover of 312 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in December contracts
traded higher by 40 paise, or 0.38% to Rs 106.30 per kg in 6 lots. Market analysts said fresh
positions built-up by participants after pick up in demand from battery-makers in the spot
market, mainly influenced lead prices at futures trade.
NICKEL
Continuing its losing streak for the third straight day, nickel prices shed another 0.59% to Rs
589.10 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in reducing their positions,
triggered by a weakening global trend. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in
November declined by Rs 3.50, or 0.59% to Rs 589.10 per kg in a business turnover of 1,699
lots.On similar lines, the metal for delivery in December traded lower by Rs 3.20, or 0.53%, to
Rs 595.60 per kg in 159 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in nickel futures to a weakening global
trend where it tumbled to the lowest level in more than a decade as stainless-steel output in
China slows amid forecasts for the weakest economic growth in a generation. Meanwhile,
nickel for delivery in three-month dropped 1.7% to $8,800.00 a metric tonne, the lowest since
July 2003 on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
7. ALUMINIUM
Aluminium prices eased by 0.16% to Rs 96.50 per kg in futures trade today as participants
reduced their positions amid weak global cues. Besides, subdued demand in the domestic spot
markets weighed on aluminum prices.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for
delivery in November month weakened by 15 paise, or 0.16% to Rs 96.50 per kg in business
turnover of 324 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in December contract was trading lower
by a similar margin to Rs 98.10 per kg in 21 lots. Market men said the weakness in aluminium
at futures trade was mostly in tune with a weak trend in global markets. Globally, aluminium
for delivery in three month fell 0.3% at the London Metal Exchange, while in Shanghai Futures
Exchange it slumped to its lowest since at least 2004. Meanwhile, government is considering
raising import duty on aluminium products by as much as 5%,among other policy measures, to
tackle the unabated import of cheap products that is adversely impacting the sector.
ENERGY
Oil futures settled steady on Thursday while U.S. crude fell ahead of the expiry of the
front-month contract and continued pressure from large inventory builds. A weaker dollar and
stronger refining margins for gasoline, which could prompt refiners to turn more crude into the
motor fuel, helped limit the downside in crude. While a global glut was weighing on crude in
general, Brent's outlook on Thursday was less bearish compared with WTI, after data the
previous day showed an eighth straight week of builds in U.S. crude stockpiles. WTI's
weakness has been also demonstrated by the growing discount between the front month to
forward contracts as traders stored more crude in the hope of delivering at higher prices later.
Goldman Sachs said there remained a
U.S. natural gas futures fell 3 percent on Thursday as the psychological impact of having a
record-high four trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas in storage set in, despite forecasts for cooler
weather expected to boost heating demand over the next two weeks. U.S. utilities added 15
billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended Nov. 13, just shy of analysts'
estimates in a Reuters poll for a build of 18 bcf. That brought the total amount of gas in storage
to a record-high four tcf and was the first build during the second week of November since
2011. It compared with a revised increase of 54 bcf in the prior week, a withdrawal of 9 bcf in
the same week a year ago and a five-year average draw of 12 bcf. The U.S. and European
weather models both continue to forecast lower-than-normal temperatures through early
December.
8. ✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Agri markets traded with moderate volatility but sentiments overall remained slightly positive.
Upside movement was limited in few commodities, because of regular profit taking.Turmeric
rebounded sharply from lower support levels as buyers once again considered the long term
bullish story, with prices showing a significant decline on Monday and Tuesday. Guar kept
trading weak on falling exports amidst weak tone in Crude oil prices; Kapas was firm on
expected rise in export demand in coming weeks. No major activity was noted in oilseed
complex.
CHANA
Chana prices were down 1.03% to Rs 5,075 per quintal in futures trade on Thursday as
participants reduced exposure, triggered by higher supplies from producing regions at the spot
markets.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in December
eased by Rs 53, or 1.03%, to Rs 5,075 per quintal with an open interest of 56,850 lots.On
similar lines, the commodity for delivery in January 2016 traded lower by Rs 19, or 0.39%, to
Rs 4,829 per quintal in 24,730 lots.
Fall in chana prices to higher supplies from producing belts against weak trend at spot markets
on fall in demand at prevailing levels.
TURMERIC
Turmeric spot prices at the Nizamabad market were at Rs 10500 per quintal for finger variety
and Rs.10300 for root variety on Thursday. Future prices witnessed volatility during Thursday’s
trading hours. However, futures prices resumed their uptrend backed by good domestic demand
and tight supply at the spot front. Demand from turmeric exporters also added to the upside in
turmeric prices The stock position of turmeric at NCDEX-accredited warehouses as of 17
November 2015 was reported at 6864 metric tonnes
Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a positive note during Friday’s trading hours.
Good domestic off take noticed at the Nizamabad market to meet the upcoming winter season
demand. Moreover, good seasonal demand and lower carryover stock supports the yellow spice
to trade high. The recent rainfall in Tamil Nadu slightly helps the standing crop. According to
the derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest have increased on Thursday. It is an
indication that the market is attracting large numbers of traders, who are willing to open
positions from the long side and hold them.
CASTOR SEED
Castor seed futures traded lower on NCDEX due to higher supply in the major mandies against
weak demand at the spot market. Further, strong production estimates from the major
producing belts too added pressure on castor seed prices.
The contract for November delivery was trading at Rs 4115.00, down by 0.77% or Rs 32.00
9. from its previous closing of Rs 4147.00.The open interest of the contract stood at 1320 lots.The
contract for December delivery was trading at Rs 4182.00, down by 0.62% or Rs 26.00 from its
previous closing of Rs 4208.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 247480 lots on
NCDEX.
JEERA
NCDEX platform jeera futures traded and settled the day positively. The total daily arrivals at
Unjha market reported at around 3500 bags. Jeera spot prices at the Unjha market remained
unchanged at Rs 15150 per quintal on Thursday. Emergence of export demand at the spot front
amid lower arrivals supported the positive movement in jeera prices. Stock position of
commodities at NCDEX approved warehouse as on17 November 2015 is 6525 MT
Jeera prices closed higher by 0.42 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as the investors increased their holdings in the
commodity in the midst limited arrivals from growing regions. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for
November 2015 contract closed at Rs. 15,600 per quintal, up by 0.42 per cent, after opening at
Rs. 15,575 against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,535. It touched the intra-day high of Rs.
15,660. Sentiment improved further as a result of reduced domestic supplies in the physical
markets and some export enquiries.
According to the derivative analysis, prices,
volumes and open interest have increased on Thursday. It is an indication that the market is
attracting large numbers of traders, who are willing to open positions from the long side and
hold them.
MUSTARD SEED
Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.8 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on
account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard
Seed futures for November 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,710 per quintal, down by 0.8 per cent,
after opening at Rs. 4,772 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,748. It touched the
intra-day low of Rs. 4,691. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a
result of the weak demand for the commodity.
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