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HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.
2 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
Market Wrap-Up
NCDEX Market Wrap-Up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
% Change
in Price
% Change in
Open Interest
% Change in
Volume
Currency Market Wrap-Up
Currency Pair Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
Change in
Price (in%)
Continued…….
MCX Market Wrap-Up
Commodity Contract
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close
% Change in
Price
% Change in
Open Interest
% Change
in Volume
Aluminium 30-Apr-18 133.00 133.55 155.75 133.55 149.75 12.59% 53.51% 155.23%
Copper 30-Apr-18 438.25 438.40 453.80 437.70 442.75 1.03% -15.94% -24.45%
Crude Oil 19-Apr-18 4029 4041 4419 4034 4401 9.23% 36.32% -8.34%
Gold 05-Jun-18 30694 30659 31562 30642 31118 1.38% 11.85% -0.69%
Lead 30-Apr-18 155.55 155.10 157.30 149.80 150.25 -3.41% 44.22% 11.43%
Natural Gas 25-Apr-18 175.90 174.80 180.40 171.60 179.10 1.82% -5.33% 7.66%
Nickel 30-Apr-18 860.90 855.20 916.00 852.50 904.90 5.11% 35.45% -12.05%
Silver 04-May-18 38235 38359 39459 38191 38927 1.81% -26.51% -34.66%
Zinc 30-Apr-18 211.30 210.05 212.55 201.65 202.70 -4.07% 6.94% -10.58%
Castor Seed 18-May-18 4151 4140 4193 4075 4147 -0.10% -4.09% -44.41%
Chana 18-May-18 3826 3848 3848 3665 3675 -3.95% 2.49% -35.79%
Dhaniya 18-May-18 5283 5290 5350 5161 5184 -1.87% -1.92% -58.30%
Cottonseed Oil
Cake
18-May-18 1396.50 1410.00 1430.00 1400.00 1408.50 0.86% -1.69% -64.90%
Guargum5 18-May-18 8889 8901 9085 8714 8937 0.54% -3.66% -28.97%
Guarseed10 18-May-18 4128.50 4133.00 4190.00 4033.50 4111.50 -0.41% 0.37% -14.38%
Jeera 18-May-18 15405 15300 15720 15260 15655 1.62% 34.51% -35.55%
Kapas 30-Apr-18 925.50 922.00 928.50 902.00 916.00 -1.03% -21.54% -61.88%
RMseed 18-May-18 3994 4010 4012 3905 3927 -1.68% 7.57% -51.20%
Ref Soya Oil 18-May-18 786.25 790.00 790.00 771.05 774.50 -1.49% -6.99% -33.33%
Soyabean 18-May-18 3876 3890 3938 3833 3852 -0.62% -7.88% -78.86%
Turmeric 18-May-18 6524 6482 6800 6394 6750 3.46% -4.52% 113.38%
Mentha Oil 30-Apr-18 1419.60 1416.00 1456.70 1366.00 1407.80 -0.83% 6.42% -68.85%
USDINR 26-Apr-18 65.0900 64.9875 65.5300 64.9475 65.2900 0.31%
GBPINR 26-Apr-18 91.2650 91.5425 93.3400 91.5425 93.1525 2.07%
JPYINR 26-Apr-18 60.7150 60.6425 61.3400 60.6400 60.6600 -0.09%
EURINR 26-Apr-18 79.7625 79.8000 81.0750 79.8000 80.4625 0.88%
3 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
International Market Wrap-up
Commodity Exchange
Previous
Close
Open High Low Close % Change in Price
Market Wrap-Up
Aluminium LME 2061.25 2075.50 2339.75 2073.00 2281.00 10.66%
Copper COMEX 3.038 3.061 3.135 3.045 3.067 0.95%
Crude Oil NYMEX 61.92 62.00 67.76 61.93 67.39 8.83%
Gold COMEX 1337.00 1338.00 1369.40 1330.10 1347.90 0.82%
Lead LME 2385.00 2383.50 2407.75 2290.75 2302.75 -3.45%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.699 2.730 2.759 2.650 2.701 0.07%
Nickel LME 13262.50 13307.50 14077.50 13097.50 13902.50 4.83%
Silver COMEX 16.36 16.345 16.615 16.345 16.628 1.64%
Zinc LME 3252.50 3254.25 3274.25 3082.75 3110.00 -4.38%
4 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
Inventory Updates
LME Inventory
Commodity
Closing In Tonnes
(As on 13th April 2018)
Closing In Tonnes
(As on 6th April 2018)
% Change in Price
Continued…….
Copper 362700 372850 -2.72%
Nickel 314946 318432 -1.09%
Lead 129325 129150 0.14%
Zinc 106475 207325 -48.64%
Aluminium 1345225 1265350 6.31%
5 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
Inventory Updates
6 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
Market Next Week
Currency Weekly Pivots
Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Continued…….
Economic Events Calendar
Time Currency Event Forecast Previous
USDINR 26-Apr-18 66.4000 65.8500 65.5500 65.2500 64.9500 64.6500 64.1000
GBPINR 26-Apr-18 96.3000 94.5000 93.8500 92.7000 92.0500 90.9000 89.1000
JPYINR 26-Apr-18 62.3000 61.6000 61.1500 60.9000 60.4500 60.2000 59.5000
EURINR 26-Apr-18 83.0000 81.7500 81.1000 80.4500 79.8500 79.2000 77.9000
Monday, April 16, 2018
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.20% 0.20%
18:00 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) 18.8 22.5
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% -0.1%
19:30 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb) 0.6% 0.6%
21:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
21:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
22:45 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
1:30 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Feb) 43.3B 62.1B
7:30 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar) 7.7% 7.9%
14:00 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 55.0K 168.0K
14:00 GBP Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.3% 4.3%
18:00 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% -4.1%
18:00 USD Building Permits (Mar) 1.323M 1.321M
18:00 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar) 1.9% -7.0%
18:00 USD Housing Starts (Mar) 1.262M 1.236M
18:45 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% 0.9%
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
14:00 GBP CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.7% 2.7%
14:00 GBP CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% 0.4%
14:00 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Mar) 0.003 -0.011
18:00 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.189M 3.306M
20:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.129M
23:30 USD Beige Book
Thursday, April 19, 2018
0:45 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
1:45 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.4% 1.1%
14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.40% 0.60%
7 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
MCX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
NCDEX Weekly Pivots
Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Market Next Week
Aluminium 30-Apr-18 191.00 169.00 159.00 146.00 137.00 124.00 102.00
Copper 30-Apr-18 477 461 452 445 436 429.00 413.00
Crude Oil 19-Apr-18 5055 4670 4535 4285 4150 3900 3515
Gold 5-Jun-18 32947 32027 31573 31107 30653 30187 29267
Lead 30-Apr-18 167.00 160.00 155.00 152.00 148.00 145.00 137.00
Natural Gas 25-Apr-18 195.00 186.00 183.00 177.00 174.00 168.00 159.00
Nickel 30-Apr-18 1018 955 930 891 866 828 764
Silver 4-May-18 41395 40127 39527 38859 38259 37591 36323
Zinc 30-Apr-18 227.00 217.00 210.00 206.00 199.00 195.00 184.00
Castor Seed 18-May-18 4374 4256 4202 4138 4084 4020 3902
Chana 18-May-18 4095 3912 3794 3729 3611 3546 3363
Dhaniya 18-May-18 5610 5421 5302 5232 5113 5043 4854
Cottonseed Oil Cake 18-May-18 1473 1443 1426 1413 1396 1383 1353
Guargum5 18-May-18 9654 9283 9110 8912 8739 8541 8170
Guarseed10 18-May-18 4425 4268 4190 4112 4033 3955 3799
Jeera 18-May-18 16465 16005 15830 15545 15370 15085 14625
Kapas 30-Apr-18 969 942 929 916 903 889 863
RMseed 18-May-18 4162 4055 3991 3948 3884 3841 3734
Ref Soya Oil 18-May-18 816 797 786 779 767 760 741
Soyabean 18-May-18 4084 3979 3916 3874 3811 3769 3664
Turmeric 18-May-18 7460 7054 6902 6648 6496 6242 5836
Mentha Oil 30-Apr-18 1592 1501 1454 1410 1364 1319 1229
8 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
BULLION
Gold future rose in American trade as the dollar index traded flat following earlier
data from china the world’s largest metal consumer and the us. Gold prices could-
n’t sustain upside momentum that it got initially but managed to settle the week
with nearly 1 percent gains. As per technical indicators MACD has turned flat that
shows weakness in the prevailing trend. On the downside major support comes in
at 30400 break below the same can encourage serious sell off in metal.
BASE METALS
Aluminium continues to dominate the base metals complex with the Rusal sanc-
tion continuing to gyrate market expectations on future supply. The broad based
recovery in the base metals continue to rely on the trade rhetoric from the US and
China. Rmseed and nickel were down by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively at the time of
writing while the rest were mostly unchanged the exception being tin which was
up by 0.5% at $21,030 per tonne.
ENERGY
its report on US crude stocks showing a buildup of 3.3 million barrels in the week
ending April 6 compared to a 4.6 million deficit in the previous reading while ana-
lysts expected a 0.6M drawdown with total inventories now up to 428.6 million
barrels remaining below average for this time of year.
Natural Gas prices trended sideways in a five point range for the complete week
after strong rally in the previous week.
MCX Fundamentals
9 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
SPICES
Trend remained volatile for Jeer with many mandis closed. Prices however
found strong support at these lower levels. High arrivals amidst some fall in
demand kept sentiments down but traders anticipate the exports to pick up in
coming weeks that could support prices in medium term.
Moderately firm trend persisted for Turmeric as it found immediate strong
support at these lower levels after the recent fall. With harvesting over the
demand for the new crop is picking up on the export and domestic front More
uptrend likely.
NCDEX Fundamentals
OIL & OILSEEDS
Soybean futures traded range bound initially before finishing slightly lower.
The most active May contract closed at a support of 3850 indicating a dicey
solution. But considering stronger fundamentals buying to be considered if
May soybean fails to stay below another strong support of 3825.
Mentha Oil Traders anticipate prices have fallen a lot over last few months
and further fall may be unsustainable. Higher sowing figures amidst lack of
strong demand had kept any strong uptrend limited.
GUAR COMPLEX
Guar failed to hold on to the higher levels as profit booking set in after the
recent uptrend. Firming up of Crude oil prices supported market sentiments.
However high stocks lack of strong export demand amidst reports of good
Monsoon could keep up trend limited. Normal monsoon predictions by Sky
met good for Guar sowing prospects from June onwards.
OTHERS
Sluggish trend persisted in soya oil and it seems that the domestic trade par-
ticipants preferred factoring in the inputs available from Tuesdays USDA re-
port. The report was neutral to slightly bearish for soya oil. The US soya oil
production and end stock was revised slightly higher. On the other hand
global soya oil Argentina soya oil and domestic soya oil was estimated
lower.RM seed ended lower on the midweek. The recent news of UP govern-
ment to procure soon checked the downward movement during greater part
of the day.
10 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
Last week CRUDE OIL Apr Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It
made a high of 4419 during the week and closed at 4401 with the overall gain of 9.23% on weekly basis. Technically for
this week, we can expect correction on oil prices as it is forming Head & shoulder pattern on higher level indicating
negative movement for short term basis For this week, if it breaks the level of 4310 then it can test the level of 4180
during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 4371.
Calls of the Week (MCX)
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
COPPER
CRUDE OIL
Last week Copper Apr Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made
a high of 453.80 during the week and closed at 442.75 with the overall gain of 1.00% on weekly basis. Technically for
this week, we can expect positive movement in it as it sustaining above the resistance trend line appear on the above
image with the positive RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 448 then it can test the level of 462 during the week.
One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 441
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Action Sell
Entry Range Below 4310
Target 4180.00
SL 4371.00
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 448
Target 462.00
SL 441.00
11 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
Last week Guarseed10 May Futures started the week on negative note and continued the same for the entire week. It
made a low of 4033.50 during the week and closed at 4111.50 with the overall of loss of 0.41% on weekly basis. Tech-
nically for this week, we can expect downside movement in its forming negative divergence on the in RSI and sustain-
ing below the support level breakout. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4033 then it can test the level of 3893dur-
ing the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 4093.
Calls of the Week (NCDEX)
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
RMSEED
GUARSEED
The primary trend of RMSEED is negative and from last couple of trading weeks market is trading with negative senti-
ment. It made a low of 3905 during the week and closed at 3927 with the overall lost of 1.68% on weekly basis. Tech-
nically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as its sustaining below the major psychological support
level of 4000 with the negative bias. For this week, if it breaks the level of3890 then it can test the level of 3740 during
the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 3951.
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Action Sell
Entry Range Below 3890
Target 3740
SL 3951
Action Sell
Entry Range Below 4033
Target 3893
SL 4093
12 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
Calls of the Week (FOREX)
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
JPYINR
EURINR
WEEKLY STRATEGY
PERTICULAR DETAILS
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 61.1800
Target 61.6800
SL 60.9700
Action Buy
Entry Range Above 81.2000
Target 81.6000
SL 80.9500
Last week JPYINR Apr Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 61.3400 in the initial part of the
week. In the later part of the week, all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 60.6600 with the overall loss of
0.10% on weekly basis. Technically it’s sustaining near to its major support level of 60.6200 with the positive RSI and
for this week, we can expect bounce back in it from support level.
Last week EURINR Apr Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 81.0750 in the initial part of the
week. In the later part of the week, most of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 80.4625 with the overall gain
of 0.88% on weekly basis. Technically it’s sustaining near to its major resistance level of 81.1900 with the positive RSI
and for this week, we can expect upside movement in it.
13 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018
LEGAL DISCLAIMER (कानूनी अस्वीकयण) :
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are
based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended
recipient only.
मह दस्तावेज़ Ways2Capital (हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड का एक बाग) द्वाया तैमाय ककमा गमा है | महां ऩय दी गई जानकायी, ववश्रेषण औय अनुभान Ways2Capital इक्ववटी / कभोडडटी अनुसंधान
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This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers
or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from informa-
tion, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities.
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है| वेफसाइट के भाध्मभ से ककसी बी ब्राउक्ज़ंग का अथा है अस्वीकयण की स्वीकृ नत।
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High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any
issuer of products/ securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company
and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market.
हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी कं ऩननमां अनुसंधान रयऩोटा भें शालभर कं ऩननमों के साथ कायोफाय नहीं कयती हैं औय न ही ककसी बी तयह के उत्ऩादों / प्रनतबूनतमों के
जायीकताा के साथ जुडी हैं, जो मह सुननक्श्चत कयता है कक टहतों के लरए कोई वास्तववक मा संबाववत संघषा नहीं है | ननमाभक ननकाम के अनुऩारन को सुननक्श्चत कयने के लरए हभने मह तम ककमा है कक कं ऩनी
औय उसके कोई बी प्रनतननधध फाज़ाय भें ट्रेड नहीं कयेंगे।
Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms &
conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body.
ग्राहकों को मह सराह दी जाती है कक वे रयऩोटा भें दी गई जानकायी को के वर याम के रूऩ भें देखें औय ननवेश के लरए स्वमं पै सरा कयें | ग्राहकों को वेफसाइट ऩय प्रकालशत सेवाओं के ननमभों औय शतों को ऩढ़ने औय
सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कं ऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकं ऩनी के खखराप कोई भुकदभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है।
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX (प्रकटीकयण ऩरयलशष्ट ) :
The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this re- port herein accurately reflects
personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations
or views contained in this research report.
रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड द्वाया ननमुवत हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी ववचाय कं ऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को
दशााता है औय कं ऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबूनतमां औय ऺनतऩूनता (भुआवजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफंधधत नहीं होगा।
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ):
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी भें कोई ववत्तीम रुधच नहीं है औय न ही इस तयह की ववत्तीम टहत की
प्रकृ नत है|
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,
(फ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एक प्रनतशत मा उससे अधधक के वास्तववक / पामदेभंद
स्वालभत्व नहीं हैं |
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोधगमों को अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के प्रकाशन के सभम मा सावाजननक रूऩ से उऩक्स्थत होने के सभम कोई अन्म बौनतक संघषा नहीं है|
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण):
High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of
coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd.
हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है।
ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩूनता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है |
DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ) :
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months;
(अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कं ऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है |
(b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.
(ब) अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के ववतयण की नतधथ से ऩूवा फायह भहीनों के दौयान ववषम कं ऩनी अफ मा कबी बी ग्राहक नहीं यही है।
(c ) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company;
(स) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने ववषम कं ऩनी के अधधकायी, ननदेशक मा कभाचायी के रूऩ भें कबी बी काभ
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Commodity Research Report 16 April 2018 Ways2Capital

  • 1. HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.
  • 2. 2 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 Market Wrap-Up NCDEX Market Wrap-Up Commodity Contract Previous Close Open High Low Close % Change in Price % Change in Open Interest % Change in Volume Currency Market Wrap-Up Currency Pair Contract Previous Close Open High Low Close Change in Price (in%) Continued……. MCX Market Wrap-Up Commodity Contract Previous Close Open High Low Close % Change in Price % Change in Open Interest % Change in Volume Aluminium 30-Apr-18 133.00 133.55 155.75 133.55 149.75 12.59% 53.51% 155.23% Copper 30-Apr-18 438.25 438.40 453.80 437.70 442.75 1.03% -15.94% -24.45% Crude Oil 19-Apr-18 4029 4041 4419 4034 4401 9.23% 36.32% -8.34% Gold 05-Jun-18 30694 30659 31562 30642 31118 1.38% 11.85% -0.69% Lead 30-Apr-18 155.55 155.10 157.30 149.80 150.25 -3.41% 44.22% 11.43% Natural Gas 25-Apr-18 175.90 174.80 180.40 171.60 179.10 1.82% -5.33% 7.66% Nickel 30-Apr-18 860.90 855.20 916.00 852.50 904.90 5.11% 35.45% -12.05% Silver 04-May-18 38235 38359 39459 38191 38927 1.81% -26.51% -34.66% Zinc 30-Apr-18 211.30 210.05 212.55 201.65 202.70 -4.07% 6.94% -10.58% Castor Seed 18-May-18 4151 4140 4193 4075 4147 -0.10% -4.09% -44.41% Chana 18-May-18 3826 3848 3848 3665 3675 -3.95% 2.49% -35.79% Dhaniya 18-May-18 5283 5290 5350 5161 5184 -1.87% -1.92% -58.30% Cottonseed Oil Cake 18-May-18 1396.50 1410.00 1430.00 1400.00 1408.50 0.86% -1.69% -64.90% Guargum5 18-May-18 8889 8901 9085 8714 8937 0.54% -3.66% -28.97% Guarseed10 18-May-18 4128.50 4133.00 4190.00 4033.50 4111.50 -0.41% 0.37% -14.38% Jeera 18-May-18 15405 15300 15720 15260 15655 1.62% 34.51% -35.55% Kapas 30-Apr-18 925.50 922.00 928.50 902.00 916.00 -1.03% -21.54% -61.88% RMseed 18-May-18 3994 4010 4012 3905 3927 -1.68% 7.57% -51.20% Ref Soya Oil 18-May-18 786.25 790.00 790.00 771.05 774.50 -1.49% -6.99% -33.33% Soyabean 18-May-18 3876 3890 3938 3833 3852 -0.62% -7.88% -78.86% Turmeric 18-May-18 6524 6482 6800 6394 6750 3.46% -4.52% 113.38% Mentha Oil 30-Apr-18 1419.60 1416.00 1456.70 1366.00 1407.80 -0.83% 6.42% -68.85% USDINR 26-Apr-18 65.0900 64.9875 65.5300 64.9475 65.2900 0.31% GBPINR 26-Apr-18 91.2650 91.5425 93.3400 91.5425 93.1525 2.07% JPYINR 26-Apr-18 60.7150 60.6425 61.3400 60.6400 60.6600 -0.09% EURINR 26-Apr-18 79.7625 79.8000 81.0750 79.8000 80.4625 0.88%
  • 3. 3 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 International Market Wrap-up Commodity Exchange Previous Close Open High Low Close % Change in Price Market Wrap-Up Aluminium LME 2061.25 2075.50 2339.75 2073.00 2281.00 10.66% Copper COMEX 3.038 3.061 3.135 3.045 3.067 0.95% Crude Oil NYMEX 61.92 62.00 67.76 61.93 67.39 8.83% Gold COMEX 1337.00 1338.00 1369.40 1330.10 1347.90 0.82% Lead LME 2385.00 2383.50 2407.75 2290.75 2302.75 -3.45% Natural Gas NYMEX 2.699 2.730 2.759 2.650 2.701 0.07% Nickel LME 13262.50 13307.50 14077.50 13097.50 13902.50 4.83% Silver COMEX 16.36 16.345 16.615 16.345 16.628 1.64% Zinc LME 3252.50 3254.25 3274.25 3082.75 3110.00 -4.38%
  • 4. 4 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 Inventory Updates LME Inventory Commodity Closing In Tonnes (As on 13th April 2018) Closing In Tonnes (As on 6th April 2018) % Change in Price Continued……. Copper 362700 372850 -2.72% Nickel 314946 318432 -1.09% Lead 129325 129150 0.14% Zinc 106475 207325 -48.64% Aluminium 1345225 1265350 6.31%
  • 5. 5 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 Inventory Updates
  • 6. 6 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 Market Next Week Currency Weekly Pivots Currency Pair Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Continued……. Economic Events Calendar Time Currency Event Forecast Previous USDINR 26-Apr-18 66.4000 65.8500 65.5500 65.2500 64.9500 64.6500 64.1000 GBPINR 26-Apr-18 96.3000 94.5000 93.8500 92.7000 92.0500 90.9000 89.1000 JPYINR 26-Apr-18 62.3000 61.6000 61.1500 60.9000 60.4500 60.2000 59.5000 EURINR 26-Apr-18 83.0000 81.7500 81.1000 80.4500 79.8500 79.2000 77.9000 Monday, April 16, 2018 18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.20% 0.20% 18:00 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) 18.8 22.5 18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% -0.1% 19:30 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb) 0.6% 0.6% 21:30 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks 21:30 USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks 22:45 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks Tuesday, April 17, 2018 1:30 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Feb) 43.3B 62.1B 7:30 CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar) 7.7% 7.9% 14:00 GBP Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) 55.0K 168.0K 14:00 GBP Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.3% 4.3% 18:00 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% -4.1% 18:00 USD Building Permits (Mar) 1.323M 1.321M 18:00 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar) 1.9% -7.0% 18:00 USD Housing Starts (Mar) 1.262M 1.236M 18:45 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% 0.9% Wednesday, April 18, 2018 14:00 GBP CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.7% 2.7% 14:00 GBP CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% 0.4% 14:00 GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Mar) 0.003 -0.011 18:00 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.189M 3.306M 20:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.129M 23:30 USD Beige Book Thursday, April 19, 2018 0:45 USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 1:45 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks 14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.4% 1.1% 14:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.40% 0.60%
  • 7. 7 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 MCX Weekly Pivots Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 NCDEX Weekly Pivots Commodity Contract R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Market Next Week Aluminium 30-Apr-18 191.00 169.00 159.00 146.00 137.00 124.00 102.00 Copper 30-Apr-18 477 461 452 445 436 429.00 413.00 Crude Oil 19-Apr-18 5055 4670 4535 4285 4150 3900 3515 Gold 5-Jun-18 32947 32027 31573 31107 30653 30187 29267 Lead 30-Apr-18 167.00 160.00 155.00 152.00 148.00 145.00 137.00 Natural Gas 25-Apr-18 195.00 186.00 183.00 177.00 174.00 168.00 159.00 Nickel 30-Apr-18 1018 955 930 891 866 828 764 Silver 4-May-18 41395 40127 39527 38859 38259 37591 36323 Zinc 30-Apr-18 227.00 217.00 210.00 206.00 199.00 195.00 184.00 Castor Seed 18-May-18 4374 4256 4202 4138 4084 4020 3902 Chana 18-May-18 4095 3912 3794 3729 3611 3546 3363 Dhaniya 18-May-18 5610 5421 5302 5232 5113 5043 4854 Cottonseed Oil Cake 18-May-18 1473 1443 1426 1413 1396 1383 1353 Guargum5 18-May-18 9654 9283 9110 8912 8739 8541 8170 Guarseed10 18-May-18 4425 4268 4190 4112 4033 3955 3799 Jeera 18-May-18 16465 16005 15830 15545 15370 15085 14625 Kapas 30-Apr-18 969 942 929 916 903 889 863 RMseed 18-May-18 4162 4055 3991 3948 3884 3841 3734 Ref Soya Oil 18-May-18 816 797 786 779 767 760 741 Soyabean 18-May-18 4084 3979 3916 3874 3811 3769 3664 Turmeric 18-May-18 7460 7054 6902 6648 6496 6242 5836 Mentha Oil 30-Apr-18 1592 1501 1454 1410 1364 1319 1229
  • 8. 8 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 BULLION Gold future rose in American trade as the dollar index traded flat following earlier data from china the world’s largest metal consumer and the us. Gold prices could- n’t sustain upside momentum that it got initially but managed to settle the week with nearly 1 percent gains. As per technical indicators MACD has turned flat that shows weakness in the prevailing trend. On the downside major support comes in at 30400 break below the same can encourage serious sell off in metal. BASE METALS Aluminium continues to dominate the base metals complex with the Rusal sanc- tion continuing to gyrate market expectations on future supply. The broad based recovery in the base metals continue to rely on the trade rhetoric from the US and China. Rmseed and nickel were down by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively at the time of writing while the rest were mostly unchanged the exception being tin which was up by 0.5% at $21,030 per tonne. ENERGY its report on US crude stocks showing a buildup of 3.3 million barrels in the week ending April 6 compared to a 4.6 million deficit in the previous reading while ana- lysts expected a 0.6M drawdown with total inventories now up to 428.6 million barrels remaining below average for this time of year. Natural Gas prices trended sideways in a five point range for the complete week after strong rally in the previous week. MCX Fundamentals
  • 9. 9 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 SPICES Trend remained volatile for Jeer with many mandis closed. Prices however found strong support at these lower levels. High arrivals amidst some fall in demand kept sentiments down but traders anticipate the exports to pick up in coming weeks that could support prices in medium term. Moderately firm trend persisted for Turmeric as it found immediate strong support at these lower levels after the recent fall. With harvesting over the demand for the new crop is picking up on the export and domestic front More uptrend likely. NCDEX Fundamentals OIL & OILSEEDS Soybean futures traded range bound initially before finishing slightly lower. The most active May contract closed at a support of 3850 indicating a dicey solution. But considering stronger fundamentals buying to be considered if May soybean fails to stay below another strong support of 3825. Mentha Oil Traders anticipate prices have fallen a lot over last few months and further fall may be unsustainable. Higher sowing figures amidst lack of strong demand had kept any strong uptrend limited. GUAR COMPLEX Guar failed to hold on to the higher levels as profit booking set in after the recent uptrend. Firming up of Crude oil prices supported market sentiments. However high stocks lack of strong export demand amidst reports of good Monsoon could keep up trend limited. Normal monsoon predictions by Sky met good for Guar sowing prospects from June onwards. OTHERS Sluggish trend persisted in soya oil and it seems that the domestic trade par- ticipants preferred factoring in the inputs available from Tuesdays USDA re- port. The report was neutral to slightly bearish for soya oil. The US soya oil production and end stock was revised slightly higher. On the other hand global soya oil Argentina soya oil and domestic soya oil was estimated lower.RM seed ended lower on the midweek. The recent news of UP govern- ment to procure soon checked the downward movement during greater part of the day.
  • 10. 10 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 Last week CRUDE OIL Apr Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 4419 during the week and closed at 4401 with the overall gain of 9.23% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect correction on oil prices as it is forming Head & shoulder pattern on higher level indicating negative movement for short term basis For this week, if it breaks the level of 4310 then it can test the level of 4180 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 4371. Calls of the Week (MCX) WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR DETAILS COPPER CRUDE OIL Last week Copper Apr Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 453.80 during the week and closed at 442.75 with the overall gain of 1.00% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect positive movement in it as it sustaining above the resistance trend line appear on the above image with the positive RSI. For this week, if it breaks the level of 448 then it can test the level of 462 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 441 WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR DETAILS Action Sell Entry Range Below 4310 Target 4180.00 SL 4371.00 Action Buy Entry Range Above 448 Target 462.00 SL 441.00
  • 11. 11 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 Last week Guarseed10 May Futures started the week on negative note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a low of 4033.50 during the week and closed at 4111.50 with the overall of loss of 0.41% on weekly basis. Tech- nically for this week, we can expect downside movement in its forming negative divergence on the in RSI and sustain- ing below the support level breakout. For this week, if it breaks the level of 4033 then it can test the level of 3893dur- ing the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 4093. Calls of the Week (NCDEX) WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR DETAILS RMSEED GUARSEED The primary trend of RMSEED is negative and from last couple of trading weeks market is trading with negative senti- ment. It made a low of 3905 during the week and closed at 3927 with the overall lost of 1.68% on weekly basis. Tech- nically for this week, we can expect downside movement in it as its sustaining below the major psychological support level of 4000 with the negative bias. For this week, if it breaks the level of3890 then it can test the level of 3740 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 3951. WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR DETAILS Action Sell Entry Range Below 3890 Target 3740 SL 3951 Action Sell Entry Range Below 4033 Target 3893 SL 4093
  • 12. 12 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 Calls of the Week (FOREX) WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR DETAILS JPYINR EURINR WEEKLY STRATEGY PERTICULAR DETAILS Action Buy Entry Range Above 61.1800 Target 61.6800 SL 60.9700 Action Buy Entry Range Above 81.2000 Target 81.6000 SL 80.9500 Last week JPYINR Apr Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 61.3400 in the initial part of the week. In the later part of the week, all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 60.6600 with the overall loss of 0.10% on weekly basis. Technically it’s sustaining near to its major support level of 60.6200 with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect bounce back in it from support level. Last week EURINR Apr Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 81.0750 in the initial part of the week. In the later part of the week, most of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 80.4625 with the overall gain of 0.88% on weekly basis. Technically it’s sustaining near to its major resistance level of 81.1900 with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect upside movement in it.
  • 13. 13 Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved 17/04/2018 LEGAL DISCLAIMER (कानूनी अस्वीकयण) : This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. मह दस्तावेज़ Ways2Capital (हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड का एक बाग) द्वाया तैमाय ककमा गमा है | महां ऩय दी गई जानकायी, ववश्रेषण औय अनुभान Ways2Capital इक्ववटी / कभोडडटी अनुसंधान के भूलमांकन ऩय आधारयत हैं औय ववश्वसनीम स्रोतों से प्राप्त की गई है | मह दस्तावेज़ के वर इक्छित प्राप्तकताा के उऩमोग के लरए ही है | This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. 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To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market. हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी कं ऩननमां अनुसंधान रयऩोटा भें शालभर कं ऩननमों के साथ कायोफाय नहीं कयती हैं औय न ही ककसी बी तयह के उत्ऩादों / प्रनतबूनतमों के जायीकताा के साथ जुडी हैं, जो मह सुननक्श्चत कयता है कक टहतों के लरए कोई वास्तववक मा संबाववत संघषा नहीं है | ननमाभक ननकाम के अनुऩारन को सुननक्श्चत कयने के लरए हभने मह तम ककमा है कक कं ऩनी औय उसके कोई बी प्रनतननधध फाज़ाय भें ट्रेड नहीं कयेंगे। Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company by regulatory body. ग्राहकों को मह सराह दी जाती है कक वे रयऩोटा भें दी गई जानकायी को के वर याम के रूऩ भें देखें औय ननवेश के लरए स्वमं पै सरा कयें | ग्राहकों को वेफसाइट ऩय प्रकालशत सेवाओं के ननमभों औय शतों को ऩढ़ने औय सभझने की बी सराह दी जाती है | कं ऩनी के ननगभन के फाद ननमाभक ननकाम द्वायाकं ऩनी के खखराप कोई भुकदभा (माधचका) दामय नहीं ककमा गमा है। DISCLOSURE APPENDIX (प्रकटीकयण ऩरयलशष्ट ) : The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this re- port herein accurately reflects personal views about the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. रयऩोटा ववश्रेषकों द्वाया तैमाय की गमी है जो द्वाया हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड द्वाया ननमुवत हैं | इस रयऩोटा भें व्मवत सबी ववचाय कं ऩनी के फाये भें व्मक्वतगत ववचायों को दशााता है औय कं ऩननमों औय उनकी प्रनतबूनतमां औय ऺनतऩूनता (भुआवजे) का कोई टहस्सा, मा इस शोध रयऩोटा भें ननटहत ववशेष सुझावों मा ववचायों से प्रत्मऺ मा अप्रत्मऺ रूऩ से संफंधधत नहीं होगा। DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST (टहतों के संघषा के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ): (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest; (अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी भें कोई ववत्तीम रुधच नहीं है औय न ही इस तयह की ववत्तीम टहत की प्रकृ नत है| (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company, (फ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगी मा उनके ककसी बी तत्कार रयश्तेदाय की ववषम कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों भें एक प्रनतशत मा उससे अधधक के वास्तववक / पामदेभंद स्वालभत्व नहीं हैं | (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance; (स) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोधगमों को अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के प्रकाशन के सभम मा सावाजननक रूऩ से उऩक्स्थत होने के सभम कोई अन्म बौनतक संघषा नहीं है| DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF COMPENSATION ( ऺनतऩूनता के संदबा भें प्रकटीकयण): High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड की ऩॉलरसी अऩने ववश्रेषकों, ऩेशेवयों को ववश्रेषक के ऺेत्र भें ककसी बी कं ऩनी की प्रनतबूनतमों के स्वाभी से ववश्रेषकों को रयऩोटा कयने से योकती है। ववश्रेषक ऺनतऩूनता : ववश्रेषक हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड के वेतन आधारयत स्थामी कभाचायी है | DISCLOSURE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC APPEARANCE (सावाजननक प्रकटन के भाभरे भें प्रकटीकयण ) : (a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months; (अ) हाई ब्रो भाके ट अनुसंधान ननवेश सराहकाय प्राइवेट लरलभटेड मा उसके सहमोगीमों ने वऩिरे 12 भहीनों भें ववषम कं ऩनी से कोई भुआवजा प्राप्त नहीं ककमा है | (b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report. (ब) अनुसंधान रयऩोटा के ववतयण की नतधथ से ऩूवा फायह भहीनों के दौयान ववषम कं ऩनी अफ मा कबी बी ग्राहक नहीं यही है। (c ) High Brow Market Research Pvt. 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