Gold rose to a two-week high on Friday as the Federal Reserve's decision to leave US interest rates unchanged weighed on the dollar and added to uncertainty over the timing of the first rate hike in a decade. Spot gold was up 0.5 per cent at $1,136.06 an ounce, having earlier touched
$1,138.80, keeping it on track to snap a three-week losing streak.
4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
PRECIOUS METAL
✍ GOLD
Gold rose to a two-week high on Friday as the Federal Reserve's decision to leave US interest
rates unchanged weighed on the dollar and added to uncertainty over the timing of the first rate
hike in a decade. Spot gold was up 0.5 per cent at $1,136.06 an ounce, having earlier touched
$1,138.80, keeping it on track to snap a three-week losing streak.
Gold dropped from a two-week high on Friday, giving back some of the sharp gains from the
last two days, as the US Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady this week added
to uncertainty over the timing of an eventual rate hike.Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,127.70 an
ounce at 0641 GMT, after climbing to a two-week high of $1,133.20 in the previous session.
Still, the metal was on track to snap a three-week losing streak with a near 2-percent gain.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in a bow to worries about the global
economy, financial market volatility and sluggish inflation at home. But the US central bank
maintained its bias towards a rate hike sometime this year.Gold had been weighed down all
year on uncertainty over when the Fed would hike interest rates from record-lows. Higher rates
could dent demand for non-interest paying bullion, while boosting the dollar.
Weakness in the dollar and stock markets could prompt a rally in gold prices in the near term
but the gains are unlikely to last, "Because the Fed has made clear that it intends to raise rates
by year-end, the markets will eventually start bidding the dollar higher and we could see gold's
up move to be relatively short-lived," he said. The Fed on Thursday also forecast inflation
would creep only slowly toward its 2 percent target, which one bullion trader said was a
negative for gold, often seen as an inflation-hedge. The Fed is due to hold two more policy
meets this year, in October and December. A majority of Wall Street's top banks now expect the
Fed to begin hiking rates in December, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Thursday.The
dollar nursed losses on Friday after slumping to a three-week low against a basket of major
currencies in the previous session.Physical demand from Asia wasn't offering much support to
gold prices.Gold discounts in India, the world's second-biggest consumer, widened this week as
dealers struggled to offload stocks amid sluggish demand.Chinese premiums held steady at
$5-$6 despite the overnight jump in prices, but failed to boost global prices.
5. ✍ SILVER
MCX Silver July as seen in the weekly chart above has opened the week at 37,923 levels and at
the same day it made a low of 37,549 levels. Late on as expected prices could not able to
sustain on lower levels and rallied sharply towards the weekly high of 40,130 levels. This week
prices have closed above the previous week’s closing of 37,935 levels and finally closed 5.31%
higher at 39,951 levels. Technically prices have formed “Big Bullish candlestick” which
indicates further strength.
For the next week we expect silver prices to find support in the range of 39,000 – 39,200 levels.
Trading consistently below 39,000 levels would lead towards the strong support at 38,200
levels and then finally towards the major support at 37,500 levels. Resistance is now observed
in the range of 40,800 – 41,000 levels. Trading consistently above 41,000 levels would lead
towards the strong resistance at 41,600 levels, and then finally towards the major resistance at
42,500 levels.
ENERGY
✍ CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil prices dipped early on Friday on fresh signs the Middle East will continue to
prioritize market share over prices, while the United States kept interest rates at historic lows
on worries over the health of the global economy.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
futures were trading at $46.70 per barrel at 0049 GMT, down 20 cents from their last
settlement. Brent prices were little changed at $49.14 per barrel.Kuwait, a key producer of the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said on Thursday that the oil
market would balance itself but that this would take time, indicating support for the producer
group's policy of defending market share despite falling prices. This view was confirmed by
sources at OPEC who said they expected oil prices to rise by no more than $5 a barrel a year to
reach $80 by 2020, with a slowing in rival non-OPEC production growth not enough to absorb
the current oil glut. The lower prices came despite the US Fed keeping interest rates at historic
lows.
weaker dollar would provide some support to crude prices, as it makes dollar-traded crude
cheaper for countries using other currencies."With the Fed on hold and a weaker dollar, support
should return to commodity markets," ANZ bank said.Some traders disagreed. "It's the Fed's
thinking behind holding rates that spooked us more than the impact of a weaker dollar. They
kept rates low because they worry about the health of the global economy. That makes me
worry about global oil demand.
6. BASE METAL
✍ COPPER
Amid a weak trend in the global market and easing spot demand, copper prices fell 0.65% to Rs
361.10 per kg in
futures trade today. At Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in November shed Rs
2.35, or 0.65%, to
Rs361.10 per kg in a business turnover of 2,105 lots.The metal for delivery in far-month
February next year traded
lower by Rs 2.15, or 0.58%, to Rs 366.90 per kg in 44 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in
copper
futures to a weak trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after the Federal
Reserve's delay in
increasing interest rates signal led concerns over rising international risks and the recent market
turmoil. Globally,
copper for delivery in three months fell 0.9% to $5,340 at LME.
✍ LEAD
Lead futures traded 0.22% higher at Rs 113.55 per kg, supported by a firming trend at the
domestic spot markets
following pick up in demand from consuming industries even as metal weakened overseas.
At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month was up 25 paise or 0.22%to
Rs 113.55 per kg in a
business turnover of 528 lots.Lead for delivery in October was trading 15 paise, or 0.13%
higher at Rs 114.60 per kg
in 11 Lots.
Market men said rising demand at domestic spot markets from battery-makers influenced lead
prices in futures trade
but metal's weakness overseas, capped the gains
✍ ZINC
Zinc futures rose 0.35% to Rs 114.40 per kg as participants built up positions amid a rising
trend in metal overseas
and better domestic demand.At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery this month
was up by 40 paise, or
7. 0.35%, to Rs 114.40 per kg in 827 lots.
Metal for delivery in October also rose by a similar margin to Rs 115.65 per kg, with a business
turnover of 52
lots.Market men said besides a firming trend at the domestic spot market, strength in metal at
the London Metal
Exchange drove the upside in zinc prices.
✍ NICKEL
Nickel futures prices today dropped 0.87% to Rs 663 per kg as speculators locked in gains
amid a weak trend
overseas. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel prices for delivery in September dropped Rs
6.40, or 0.87%, to Rs 663 per kg in a business turnover of 332 lots. Metal prices for delivery in
October contracts fell Rs 5.70, or 0.84%, to trade at Rs 670.80 per kg in a turnover of 28 lots.
Market analysts said besides profit-booking,a weak trend in base metals overseas and worries
over China's economic slowdown kept pressure on nickel futures.
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Government to adopt Gujarat-model of irrigation
Seeking to carry forward the Gujarat-model of irrigation reform in the country and to quickly
complete the task of aquifer mapping to quantify available groundwater resources, the Centre
has constituted a seven-member committee to restructure the central water commission (CWC)
and the central ground water board (CGWB) - the two key central bodies that manage water
resources in India.
The committee, headed by ex-planning commission member Mihir Shah, has been asked to
submit its report in three months so that government can make a policy framework to utilize
available water resources in the country in a better way.
NCDEX imposes special margin on Chana
To curb speculation, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) last week
imposed an additional special margin on chana. The margin is effective Tuesday. For all chana
contracts, the exchange levied an additional margin of five per cent (in cash) on both buying
and selling, as well as a special margin of 10 per cent (in cash) on buying. Following this, the
overall cash margin on buying is 25 per cent, while that for selling is five per cent.
On Monday, chana contracts declined four per cent and hit the lower circuit on the NCDEX.
October chana contracts were down 3.99 per cent to Rs 4,374/100 kg.The sentiment was dull in
8. physical markets, too, with demand declining. Fall of Rs 550/100 kg, or about 10 per cent is
witnessed , in spot markets in the past week and the demand is still not encouraging.Of late,
chana prices in the spot and futures market have seen excessive short-term volatility. During
July 1-September 3, spot prices increased 13 per cent, while the futures prices for the
September and October contracts increased nine per cent. In the beginning of August, chana
prices stood at Rs 4,500/100 kg, before exceeding Rs 5,000/100 kg in the beginning of
September.But after NCDEX took various regulatory steps, the prices started declining last
week. Meanwhile, NCDEX has clarified the final expiry date for chana will be seven months.
✍ SOYABEAN
The world’s two biggest trading partners in agriculture boosted their soybean business before
meeting face to face next week.Exporters from the U.S., the top producer, reported sales of
482,500 metric tons of the oilseed in two days to China, the largest consumer. That precedes a
visit to the U.S. by Chinese President Xi Jinping and his trade delegation. The Asian nation’s
imports from around the world soared 35-fold since 1997 as the economy boomed.
The U.S. is the most attractive source of soybeans currently with prices about $10 a ton below
rival Brazil, said Roy Huckabay, an executive vice president at Chicago-based Linn &
Associates, a commodity analyst and broker. U.S. government data show that exports to China
in the 12 months that started Sept. 1 trail the 2014 pace by 53 percent after the Asian nation
increased shipments from the South American country in July.
“U.S. soybeans are the cheapest available until March because Brazil is focused on exporting
corn after record soybean shipments to China earlier this year.U.S. shippers probably will agree
to sell 4 million to 5 million tons to China during the trade delegation’s visit, mirroring accords
in previous years, . These sales carry no specific hipping dates or price and usually are part of
the annual trade.
✍ JEERA
Jeera prices closed lower by 1.1 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in
the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for September 2015
contract closed at Rs. 15,315 per quintal, down by 1.1 per cent, after opening at Rs. 15,410
against the previous closing price of Rs. 15,485. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 15,300.
9. ✍ CASTORSEED
Castor seed prices rose by 0.3 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the rise in demand from consuming
industries against restricted arrivals in domestic markets which in turn encouraged the investors
to enlarge their holdings. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for September 2015 contract were
trading at Rs. 4,075 per quintal tonnes, up by 0.3 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,070 against the
previous closing price of Rs. 4,063.
✍ RM SEED
Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.19 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on
account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard
Seed futures for September 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,266 per quintal, down by 0.19 per
cent, after opening at Rs. 4,276 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,274. It touched the
intra-day low of Rs. 4,266 Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a
result of the weak demand for the commodity.
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