This document provides daily and weekly support and resistance levels for various commodities trading on the MCX and NCDEX exchanges. It also includes brief summaries of recent international and domestic news related to commodities such as gold, silver, crude oil, aluminum, copper, refined soya, chana, jeera, castorseed, and rape mustard seed. Additionally, it contains a legal disclaimer from Ways2Capital regarding the information presented.
4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
DOMESTIC DEMAND DROPPED OF GOLD✍
Consumer demand in India for gold had dropped by 25 per cent during the calendar year’s
second quarter (April-June) to 154.5 tonnes, from 204.9 tonnes a year before.In dollar terms,
says the World Gold Council (WGC), it dropped by 30 per cent to $5.9 billion during the
quarter as compared to $8.5 bn a year before. The demand forecast is 900-1,000 tonnes in 2015
(calendar year) as compared to 841 tonnes in 2014.
The fall in China’s consumer demand during the quarter from a year before was only five per
cent.Looking ahead, there are encouraging signs in moving into what are traditionally the
busiest quarters for gold buying in India and China.
China has remained much ahead of India in terms of gold demand. In the June quarter, it was
230 tonnes, compared to 154.5 tonnes. Till 2012, China was trailing India.Extreme weather
patterns overshadowed rural demand in the quarter, which had a direct impact on incomes
among the rural population (more than half of India’s demand).
Smuggling was 175 tonnes last year and would be lower this year, substantially due to better
enforcement, demand not driving towards a huge premium and official supplies (enough
importers) also available.
Jewelry demand at some high-end, branded chain stores in larger cities saw modest growth.
This contrasted with sizable losses suffered by small, independent jewelers in Tier-II and
Tier-III cities.
During April–June, jewelry retailer Titan declared it had been one of the toughest quarters for
the company, as sentiment was so weak. Jewelry sales volumes dropped by 10 per cent
year-on-year. Their Gold plus range, designed for ‘semi-urban and rural customers, was one of
the poorest performing, with sales value down 24 per cent over a year.
While wedding-related demand was affected, An interesting trend is the rapid growth of door (a
semi-pure alloy of gold and silver, usually created at the mine site and then transported to a
refinery for further purification) as a proportion of imports; this element grew five-fold, from
9.2 tonnes in Q2 of 2014 to 55.8 tonnes. This might have been driven by refiners actively
seeking out supplies of door, to make the most of the difference between duties on these and
bullion imports. In any case, the groundswell of these imports have contributed to the inventory
overhang.
Indian jewelry demand over these six months declined a modest seven tonnes from a year
before. With Diwali heralding the onset of the wedding season in mid-November, prospects for
the year's second half are supportive, particularly with the local price having dropped
5. substantially in recent weeks. Investment demand in India is, however, at a six-year low.
Despite reasonable levels of interest around Akshaya Tritiya in April, this demand contracted
for a third quarter in a row, declining 30 per cent to 36.5 tonnes.
Uncertain price expectations were a factor, as was the stock market, which has continued to
capture the attention of investors with its continued strong performance. The weak rural
economy played a further role. Those rural investors most affected by the Q1 rains were more
inclined to sell gold to supplement declining incomes than make fresh purchases.
Silver✍
Silver prices were down by Rs 307 to Rs 35,784 per kg in futures trade on Thursday, tracking a
weak trend overseas coupled with profit-booking by speculators.In futures trading, silver for
delivery in September lost Rs 307 or 0.85 per cent to trade at Rs 35,784 per kg in a business
turnover of 1,075 lots.Similarly, the white metal for delivery in December declined by Rs 298
or 0.81 per cent to Rs 36,553 per kg in a business volume of 32 lots.In Singapore, silver traded
0.74 per cent lower at USD 15.42 an ounce.Apart from profit-booking by participants, a weak
trend in precious metals in the Asian region led to the fall in silver prices in futures trade here.
Crude Oil✍
Oil prices extended losses in Asia on Wednesday as dealers worried about China's economy
following its surprise currency devaluation, while oversupply concerns also added to downward
pressure.US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery fell five cents
to $43.03 while Brent crude for September slipped 35 cents to $48.83 in late-morning trade.
WTI yesterday sank to its lowest level since March 2009, while Brent also fell in London, after
China's central bank moved to devalue its currency by nearly two percent against the US
dollar.The People's Bank of China again lowered the daily fix that sets the value of the Chinese
currency against the greenback today by 1.62%, sending a new shock wave through financial
markets.The Chinese yuan continues to weaken for the second day, which could suggest further
weakening of oil prices.
Investors fear Beijing's move signal led concerns over growth in the world's second-largest
economy and top energy consumer, which came after data published over the weekend showed
a slump in Chinese trade.It also pushed up the greenback, which strengthened further against
Asian currencies today, which hurts dollar-denominated commodity prices by making them
more expensive for international buyers.
6. Aluminium✍
Aluminium prices fell 0.64 per cent to Rs 101.65 per kg in futures trade on Thursday after
traders reduced their exposure amid weak global cues.
Besides, sluggish demand in the domestic spot market weighed.At Multi Commodity
Exchange, aluminum for delivery this month eased 65 paise, or 0.64 per cent, to Rs 101.65 per
kg in a business turnover of 181 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in September traded
lower by 55 paise, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 103.30 per kg in nine lots.Weakness in base metal
pack at the LME as China's yuan slid for the third day after its worst loss since 1994 and muted
demand at the domestic spot market kept up the pressure.Meanwhile, aluminum prices fell 0.3
per cent at LME.
Copper✍
Extending its slide, copper futures fell by another 0.96% to Rs 329.20 per kg on Wednesday as
speculators engaged in trimming positions after China lowered the yuan against the dollar for
the second straight day amid subdued demand at the domestic spot markets.Copper for delivery
this month fell by Rs 3.20, or 0.96% to Rs 329.20 per kg at the Multi Commodity Exchange in
a business turnover of 3,293 lots.The metal for delivery in far-month November shed Rs 3.25,
or 0.96%, to Rs 336.50 per kg in a business volume of 187 lots.Weakening trend in base metals
at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after China devalued its currency against the dollar for
the second day , reflecting a slower outlook for growth as the central bank stuck to its plan to
give market forces more sway in determining the exchange rate, put pressure on copper futures
here.The currency weakened 1.6% to 6.4264 per dollar after a 1.8% tumble on
Tuesday.Globally, copper for delivery in three months traded was trading 1% lower at LME.
✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Refined soya✍
Refined soya oil eased by 0.46 per cent to Rs 559.70 per 10 kg in futures market on Thursday
as traders trimmed position amid ample stocks on higher supplies from producing regions
against low demand.At National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for
delivery in October fell Rs 2.60, or 0.46 per cent to Rs 559.70 per 10 kg with an open interest
of 90,025 lots.Similarly, the oil for delivery in August shed Rs 2.20, or 0.38 per cent to Rs
578.05 per 10 kg in 55,090 lots.Offloading of positions by participants triggered by sufficient
stocks against easing demand at the spot market mainly kept pressure on refined soya oil prices
in futures trade.
7. Chana✍
Chana prices were down 0.86 per cent to Rs 4,477 per quintal in futures trade on Thursday as
speculators booked profits at prevailing levels.Besides, easing demand at the spot market,
weighed on the prices.At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery
in August drifted by Rs 39, or 0.86 per cent to Rs 4,477 per quintal with an open interest of
12,960 lots.Similarly, the commodity for delivery in September traded lower by Rs 35, or 0.77
per cent to Rs 4,483 per quintal in 1,60,290 lots.Besides profit-booking by speculators at
existing levels, fall in demand at the spot market mainly pulled down chana prices in futures
trade.
Jeera✍
Jeera prices were up 0.60 per cent to Rs 15,050 per quintal in futures trade on monday as
traders widened positions, driven by pick up in demand in the spot market.Besides, restricted
supplies from growing regions supported the upside.At the National Commodity and
Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in September month rose by Rs 90, or 0.60 per cent to
Rs 15,050 per quintal with an open interest of 14,628 lots. Likewise, the spice for delivery in
August contracts traded higher by Rs 80, or 0.55 per cent to Rs 14,755 per quintal in 7,653
lots.The rise in jeera futures prices to pick up in demand in the spot market against tight
supplies from producing belts.
Castorseed✍
Castor seed prices fell by 0.08 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandies
as well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for August 2015
contract was trading at Rs. 3,985 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.08 per cent, after opening at Rs.
3,980 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,988. It touched the intraday low of Rs. 3,980.
Rape Mustard seed✍
Mustard seed prices closed higher by 1.45 per cent on Wednesday at the National Commodity
& Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the
commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for August 2015
contract closed at Rs. 4,137 per quintal, up by 1.45 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,061 against
the previous closing price of Rs. 4,078. It touched the intraday high of Rs. 4,154. India
produces 5.5 million MT to7 million MT annually and about 0.15 million MT is retained for
sowing and direct consumption as seed which leaves about 4.8-5.1 million MT for crushing and
extracting oil.
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