The central government has asked state governments to use e-auctions to procure agricultural commodities as part of efforts to create a national common market. NCDEX's mandi modernisation programme has linked all APMCs in Karnataka electronically, allowing farmers to get a single state price. NCDEX is also working to unify mandis in other states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and UP through its Unified Market Platform. The exchange has also launched forward trading in commodities for farmers to sell their produce.
4. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Chinese economy faces big downward pressures: China registered 7.4 percent growth last year,
slowest in 24 years. A recent IMF forecast said China's growth rate would further decline to 6.8
this year and 6.3 next year. Admitting that China's economy is facing considerable downward
pressures due to the slowdown, the new GDP target of around 7 percent set for this year is not
easy to meet but the government has host of policy to halt the slide. "This year we set the
anticipated GDP target approximately 7 percent. It is true that we have adjusted downward our
GDP target but it will by no means easy for us to meet this target," annual press conference at
the end of the 10-day meeting of the legislature, the National People's Congress (NPC). China
registered 7.4 percent growth last year, slowest in 24 years. A recent IMF forecast said China's
growth rate would further decline to 6.8 this year and 6.3 next year. Li said because China's
economic aggregate is expanding it size now is valued at about USD 10 trillion which is
equivalent to the total economy of a medium sized country.
Russian economy is ready to grow: While the political impact of the opposition leader Boris
Nemtsov's killing has been limited in Russia, it has fueled demands for new sanctions against
Moscow in the West. Meanwhile, Russian equity valuations suggest potential for a strong
performance over the coming months. After a year of sanctions and a contraction, the Russian
economy is ready for the upside. What it needs are economic reforms and international
integration - not further sanctions and geopolitical isolation. While the political impact of the
opposition leader Boris Nemtsov's killing has been limited in Russia, it has fueled demands for
new sanctions against Moscow in the West. Meanwhile, Russian equity valuations suggest
potential for a strong performance over the coming months. The ailing post-sanctions economy
In pre-sanctions Russia, growth was expected to remain weak in 2014-2015 due to stagnant oil
demand, while institutional weaknesses reflected a poor investment climate. In early 2014,
markets projected growth of 1.7 percent for 2014 and 2.3 percent in 2015, with a deceleration
of inflation to about 5 percent and a policy rate of 5 percent. With sanctions in place, the
Russian economy wound up contracting 3.5 percent in 2014. Even in a benign scenario,
Moscow can only expect flat growth in 2015. With subdued oil prices and weak ruble, only
exports are driving growth.
Euro sinks to 12-year lows as yield gap grows: In a dollar rally that began last July the single
currency has lost around a quarter of its value, and there is little sign of that bottoming out.
Deutsche Bank on Tuesday forecast a fall to 85 US cents by the end of 2017. The euro dived to
its lowest since early 2003 against the dollar on Wednesday, dragging other European
currencies with it on the back of the huge differences developing in market interest rates
between Europe and the United States. In a dollar rally that began last July the single currency
has lost around a quarter of its value, and there is little sign of that bottoming out. Deutsche
Bank on Tuesday forecast a fall to 85 US cents by the end of 2017. That comes largely courtesy
of the collapse in European bond yields, which are set to stay low for the foreseeable future
under the programme of money-printing launched by the European Central Bank on Monday.
Yields on German 30-year government bonds are now lower than those on US two-year paper.
The picture for European stock markets, given the projected 1 trillion of new euros set to flow
5. into the financial sector, is less grim, and the main indexes were all higher in early trade.
✍ BULLION
Gold imports rise to $1.98 bn in February: As per data released by the Commerce Ministry this
month, the gold shipments in February jumped 48.78 percent on a year-on-year basis. India is
the largest importer of gold, which is mainly utilised to meet the demand of the jewellery
industry. old imports in February rose to USD 1.98 billion (Rs 12,293 crore), the second
successive monthly rise. Gold imports had inched up in January 2015 to USD 1.55 billion.
Despite easing in gold import norms, the shipments had dropped sharply in December 2014.
The December import figure stood at USD 1.34 billion, about one-fourth of the quantity in
November. As per data released by the Commerce Ministry this month, the gold shipments in
February jumped 48.78 percent on a year-on-year basis. India is the largest importer of gold,
which is mainly utilised to meet the demand of the jewellery industry. In November 2014, the
RBI had eased restrictions on gold imports by scrapping the controversial 80:20 scheme. Under
the 80:20 norm, put in place in August 2013 to curb high gold inflows that was widening the
current account deficit, at least 20 percent of the imported gold had to be mandatorily exported
before bringing in new lots. Government has been repeatedly asking people to desist from
buying gold and instead invest in other saving instruments.
Gold demand in Asia picks up due to lower prices :Demand for gold picked up across Asia this
week as bullion prices dropped to their lowest level in three months after the longest losing
streak in more than 40 years, but caution still prevailed, traders said. Gold, trading at about
USD 1,158 an ounce on Friday, touched USD 1,147.10 on Wednesday, the lowest since Dec. 1.
The metal fell for nine straight sessions to Thursday, the longest losing streak since 1973. The
lower prices attracted bargain-hunters across Asia, the top consuming region, although wariness
over the price outlook kept a lid on purchases. In top consumer India, premiums remained
largely unchanged from last week's levels at about USD 1.50 to USD 2.50 an ounce. "Demand
has increased a little bit because of the drop in prices but there is no big rush," "This is the last
month of the financial year so there is some liquidity crunch in the market. That is quite
seasonal, but that's also curbing some purchases," he said. Indian demand could pick up pace
next month with the onset of the wedding season. The festival of Akshaya Tritaya, considered
an auspicious time to buy gold, could also boost demand and imports in April, he said. In
second-biggest consumer China, premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the platform over
which all Chinese physical trades are conducted, was steady on last week's levels at about USD
4-USD 5, though some noted that volumes had slowed recently.
✍ BASE METAL
LME Copper prices to trade sideways: LME Copper prices is expect to trade sideways as
pressure on policymakers to introduce broad-based stimulus measures will be supportive. Also,
estimates of favorable inflation and consumer sentiments data from the US will act as a positive
6. factor. Base metals on the LME traded mostly higher on Thursday as dollar index weakened by
0.4 providing respite to the falling prices. LME copper, Nickel, rose the most in the base metals
pack gaining 2.1 and 1.4 percent respectively while Lead, Zinc gained by 0.7 and 0.3 percent
respectively In the Indian markets, base metals traded mostly positive in line with international
trends. Copper LME Copper prices jumped by 2.1 percent as credit growth expanded more than
forecast in China, the world’s largest user of industrial metal. Also, triggered short-covering
coupled with a dip in the US dollar offered support. MCX copper prices surged by 1.7 percent
and closed at Rs.371.2/kg on Thursday. Outlook We expect LME Copper prices to trade
sideways as pressure on policymakers to introduce broad-based stimulus measures will be
supportive. Also, estimates of favorable inflation and consumer sentiments data from the US
will act as a positive factor. On the MCX, copper prices are expected to trade sideways taking
cues from international markets.
✍ ENERGY
Oil prices drop on strong dollar, US crude hits 6 year low: US crude fell to USD 43.57, the
lowest since March 2009, while Brent slipped to USD 53.34 in early trading on Monday after
the dollar index closed above 100 on Friday for the first time since April 2003 to hit fresh
12-year highs. Oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trade on Monday, with US crude dropping
more than 2 percent to a six-year low after the dollar hit fresh highs and concerns grew that the
United States might run out of oil storage. Both US crude and Brent have dropped steeply this
month on a stronger dollar and worries over an oil supply glut. US crude fell to USD 43.57, the
lowest since March 2009, while Brent slipped to USD 53.34 in early trading on Monday after
the dollar index closed above 100 on Friday for the first time since April 2003 to hit fresh
12-year highs. By 2330 GMT, U.S. crude was down 93 cents, or 2.1 per cent, at USD 43.91 a
barrel, and Brent was down 97 cents at USD 53.70 a barrel. The Fed's policy-setting committee
meets this week with the expectation that it could tighten monetary policy as soon as June.
NYMEX crude prices down sharply in Asia as supply worries weigh: Crude oil prices sharply
on Monday in Asia as supply worries weighed on sentiment. On the New York Mercantile
Exchange, crude oil for delivery in April plunged 2.19% to $46.03 a barrel. Last week, crude
oil futures fell sharply on Friday to hit the lowest level in six weeks, following the release of a
mostly bearish report from the International Energy Agency on global oil supply and demand.
In its closely-watched monthly oil market report released Friday, the IEA warned that an
oil-price recovery remained fragile amid a production rebound in the U.S.
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ Use e-auction to procure agri commodities: Govt to states
The central government has written to all state governments to opt, where possible, for
e-auctions to procure agricultural commodities. This is part of a plan to get going in a national
7. common market for agri products, linking all the wholesale markets run by Agricultural
Produce Marketing Committees.
According to the official Economic Survey for 2014-15, there are 2,477 principal regulated
markets based on geography and 4,843 sub-market yards regulated by the APMCs. The Centre
aims to link all these, to create one market.
The first step has been to get each state to change its APMC law, to allow private market yards
or markets. Some states have denotified fruit and vegetables from their Act. This is not
considered enough and the recommendation on e-auction is the next step. Half a dozen states
have begun procuring sugar for public distribution by using the e-auction facilities provided by
NCDEX E-Markets (NEML), a subsidiary of the National Commodities and Derivatives
Exchange (NCDEX).
The Centre has lauded NCDEX’s mandi modernisation programme (MMP), under which all
APMCs of Karnataka have already been linked electronically and farmers get one state price
for commodities traded on this common platform. The Survey said in Karnataka, 51 of the 155
main market yards and 354 sub-yards have been integrated into a single licensing system.
Rashtriya e-market Services, a joint venture created by the state government and NCDEX Spot
Exchange, offers automated auction and post auction facilities (weighting, invoicing, market
fee collection, accounting), assaying facilities in the markets, facilitation of warehouse-based
sale of produce, commodity funding and price dissemination NCDEX is also implementing a
Unified Market Platform, whereby all mandis in the state are being unified for single trading.
Apart from Karnataka, it has started unifying mandis in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Among
other states in discussion with NEML are Punjab, Haryana and UP.
NCDEX has also launched forward trading in several agricultural commodities, such as castor
seed, cumin, maize and sugar. The exchange has started a membership drive specially for
farmer producer organisations, through which farmers can sell their produce directly on the
NCDEX forwards segment. There are lakhs of physical traders who buy commodities from
APMC markets nationwide. The forwards segment provides them an alternative platform to sell
these.”
✍ Chana falls Concerns over lesser output due to lower sowing acreage restricted the
losses
Chana prices were down by 0.22% to Rs 3,645 per quintal in futures traded on wednesday,
largely in tandem with subdued demand at sot markets.
8. However, concerns over lesser output due to lower sowing acreage restricted the losses.
At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, chana for delivery in April eased by Rs
8, or 0.22% to Rs 3,645 per quintal with an open interest of 1,75,150 lots.
Similarly, the commodity for delivery in May contracts traded lower by the same margin to Rs
3,654 per quintal in 1,04,730 lots.
It can be said offloading of positions by speculators, amid subdued demand in spot market
against adequate stocks position, mainly influenced chana prices at futures tradew
✍ Refined soya oil up, Oil for delivery in May contract edged up by 0.10%
Refined soya oil prices rose by 0.35% to Rs 562.25 per 10 kg in futures traded on monday as
speculators created fresh position, driven by pick-up in demand in the spot market.
At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in June
rose by Rs 1.95, or 0.35%, to Rs 562.25 per 10 kg with an open interest of 1,19,740 lots.
Likewise, the oil for delivery in May contract edged up by 60 paise, or 0.10% to Rs 581.60 per
10 kg in 86,500 lots.
Besides pick-up in demand in the spot market, tight supplies from producing belts mainly
helped refined soya oil prices to trade higher at futures trade.
✍ Castorseed down 0.8% on subdued demand
Castorseed prices fell by Rs 35 to Rs 3,902 per quintal in futures traded on Wednesday after
speculators positions triggered by higher output estimates and weak domestic as well as export
demand.
At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, castorseed for delivery in February
dropped by Rs 35, or 0.89%, to Rs 3,902 per quintal with an open interest in 50,810 lots.
Also, March contracts moved down by Rs 22, or 0.55%, to Rs 3,951 per quintal, having an
open interest of 83,660 lots.
We can say that, the fall in castroseed prices at futures trade to offloading of positions by
speculators triggered by higher production estimates and weak domestic and export demand at
spot markets.
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