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MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIU
M
30-NOV-2016 122 121 120 120 119 119 118 117 116
COPPER 30-NOV-2016 420 414 408 405 402 399 396 390 384
CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3507 3410 3313 3256 3216 3159 3119 3022 2925
GOLD 05-DEC-2016 29512 29193 28874 28736 28555 28417 28236 27917 27598
LEAD 30-NOV-2016 206 191 176 170 161 155 146 131 116
NATURAL
GAS
27-DEC-2015 231 224 217 214 210 207 203 196 189
NICKEL 30-NOV-2016 865 841 817 808 793 784 769 745 721
SILVER 05-DEC-2016 42609 41848 41087 40793 40326 40032 39565 38804 38043
ZINC 30-NOV-2016 229 217 205 201 193 189 181 169 157
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 30-NOV-2016 140 133 126 123 119 116 112 105 98
COPPER 30-NOV-2016 502 466 430 417 394 381 358 322 286
CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3831 3634 3437 3317 3240 3120 3043 2846 2649
GOLD 05-DEC-2016 31285 30434 29583 29091 28732 28240 27881 27030 26179
LEAD 30-NOV-2016 219 199 179 172 159 152 139 119 99
NATURAL
GAS
27-DEC-2015 263 244 225 218 206 199 187 168 149
NICKEL 30-NOV-2016 949 894 839 819 784 764 729 674 619
SILVER 05-DEC-2016 44183 42950 41717 41107 40484 39847 39251 38018 36785
ZINC 30-NOV-2016 261 237 213 205 189 181 165 141 117
Monday, 28 November 2016
WEEKLY MCX CALL
SELL ALUMINIUM DEC BELOW 120.50 TGT 118.50 SL 122.30
SELL NATURAL GAS DEC BELOW 2019 TGT 214 SL 223.10
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
SELL ALUMINIUM 115.60 TGT 113.60 SL 117.20 - NOT EXECUTED
SELL CRUDEOIL DEC BELOW 3160 TGT 3080 SL 3220 - NOT EXECUTED
FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 28-DEC-
2016
69.30 69.20 69.10 69 68.90 68.80 68.70 68.60 68.50
EURINR 28-DEC-
2016
74.20 74 73.80 73.60 73.40 73.20 73 72.80 72.60
GBPINR 28-DEC-
2016
87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30 86 85.70 85.40 85.10 84.80
JPYINR 28-DEC-
2016
86.90 86.70 86.50 86.30 86.10 85.90 85.70 85.50 85.30
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 28-DEC-
2016
69.60 69.40 69.20 69 68.80 68.60 68.40 68.20 68
EURINR 28-DEC-
2016
74.40 74.10 73.90 73.60 73.30 73 72.70 72.40 72.10
GBPINR 28-DEC-
2016
87.80 87.30 86.80 86.30 85.80 85.30 84.80 84.30 83.80
JPYINR 28-DEC-
2016
87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30 86 85.70 85.40 85.10 84.80
WEEKLY FOREX CALL
BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 61.80 TGT 62.85 SL 60.95
SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 84.90 SL 87.05
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
SELL USDINR NOV BELOW 68.10 TGT 67.30 SL 68.70 - NOT EXECUTED
SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 84.10 TGT 83.10 SL 85.05 - NOT EXECUTED
NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-DEC-
2016
726 720 714 712 708 706 702 696 690
SYBEANIDR 20-DEC-
2016
3190 3161 3132 3117 3103 3088 3074 3045 3016
RMSEED 20-DEC-
2016
4792 4747 4702 4673 4657 4628 4612 4567 4522
JEERAUNJH
A
20-DEC-
2016
20090 19595 19100 18935 18605 18440 18110 17615 17120
GUARSEED10 20-DEC-
2016
3507 3450 3393 3360 3336 3303 3279 3222 3165
TMC 20-DEC-
2016
7829 7669 7509 7427 7349 7267 7189 7029 6869
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-DEC-
2016
789 760 731 720 702 691 673 644 615
SYBEANIDR 20-DEC-
2016
3421 3313 3205 3154 3097 3046 2989 2881 2773
RMSEED 20-DEC-
2016
506
1
4930 4799 4722 4668 4591 4537 4406 4275
JEERAUNJH
A
20-DEC-
2016
22530 21120 19710 19240 18300 17830 16890 15480 14070
GUARSEED10 20-DEC-
2016
3853 3666 3479 3404 3292 3217 3105 2918 2731
TMC 20-DEC-
2016
8447 8055 7663 7505 7271 7113 6879 6487 6095
WEEKLY NCDEX CALL
SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3310 TGT 3200 SL 3402
SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 18450 TGT 18000 SL 18905
PREIOUS WEEEK CALL
SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3294 TGT 3203 SL 3353 - SL
BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 17500 TGT 17900 SL 17100 - TGT
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
GLOBAL UPDATE✍
Gold prices closed at the lowest level in nine months on Friday as expectations for higher U.S. interest
rates continued to cloud the demand outlook for the precious metal.
Gold for December delivery settled down 0.53% at $1,183.00 on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since February 5.
Safe haven demand for gold has been hit since the U.S. presidential election amid expectations that
increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and
inflation. Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Federal Reserve to
tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected. The precious metal has also
been weighed down by bets that a rate hike by the Fed in December is a near certainty. According to
Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, 95.4% of traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its
policy meeting next month. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of
holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Elsewhere
in metals trading, silver settled at $16.47, paring the week’s losses to 0.48%. Also on the Comex,
copper for December delivery settled at $2.46 a pound.
Gold prices eased on Thursday after falling to their lowest levels since February as the dollar paused
after surging to fresh 14-year peaks. Gold for December delivery was trading at $1,187.55 a troy
ounce by 0946 GMT, after earlier falling as low as $1,179.75, a level not seen since February 8. The
U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six
major currencies, was last at 101.67, not far from highs of 102.11, the strongest level since early April
2003. The dollar rallied after upbeat U.S. data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes cemented
expectations for a rate hike next month. The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting said an
interest-rate increase was possible “relatively soon” if data indicated that the economy is improving.
Some Fed officials explicitly called for a rate hike in December, the minutes showed. Separately, data
showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose at the fastest rate in a year in October and another report
showed that a gauge of U.S. consumer confidence rose strongly in November. According to
Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are
now at 100%. Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive to holders of other currencies
when the dollar strengthens. Prices of the yellow metal had already come under pressure this month
amid the view that increased U.S. fiscal spending under a Trump administration will spur economic
growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates. Gold is sensitive
to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion,
while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Trade was expected remain quiet on Thursday; with
U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for
December delivery were at $16.34 a troy ounce, while copper futures traded at $2.65 a pound. Copper
prices have risen around 20% so far this month on expectations of rising demand from China and an
increase in infrastructure spending in the U.S. when Donald Trump becomes president. China and the
U.S. are the top two consumers of the industrial metal.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.47
percent to 891.57 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday. Holdings have declined over 5 percent so far
this month. Gold prices have dropped nearly 12 percent from a high of $1,337.40 per ounce, hit on
Nov. 9, when Donald Trump was announced U.S. president-elect. "Since no one particularly
anticipated the move post the Trump win, the position cutting on the long-side has been swift on the
downside," said Amit Kumar Gupta, research head at Adroit Financial Services, adding that the
market has piled into the U.S dollar and equities.
"Technically, $1,172 will act as support, below which the down move could be aggressive." Spot
silver XAG= fell 0.6 percent to $16.26 an ounce. Platinum XPT= dropped over 1.3 percent to
$918.40, while palladium XPD= edged up 0.2 percent to $734.40.
Gold edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. equities hit all-time highs on market expectations for higher
growth and more spending from a Donald Trump presidency.
Trump's victory in the Nov. 8 U.S. election initially saw a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold but
the trend quickly reversed as the dollar .DXY and bond yields surged on expectations of higher U.S.
spending and interest rates.Spot gold XAU= was down 0.14 percent at $1,211.97 an ounce by 2:18
p.m. EST (1918 GMT). The previous day, bullion advanced 0.4 percent to snap three sessions of
losses. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.1 percent at $1,211.20 per ounce.
Safe haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen JPY= are usually the casualties of a flight to risk
where the dollar and stocks perform well. "We are still in the Donald Trump honeymoon period which
has taken the equity market quite a bit higher. The market is looking for global growth to come to the
rescue," said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.
ENERGY✍
Oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid uncertainty over whether the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries can reach an agreement to cut production and prop up markets. U.S. crude oil
settled down $1.97 or 4.11% at $49.55 a barrel from its previous close on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. It was the largest one day decline since September 23. U.S crude still ended the week up
0.81% after trading in a range between $45.77 and $49.20 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent futures
were at $48.24 a barrel, down $1.76 cents or 3.59%. Trading activity remained thin because of the
Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Doubts over whether major global exporters will be able to reach an
agreement next week to rein in output also kept investors on the sidelines. OPEC is to hold a meeting
in Vienna on Wednesday aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed output cut, which it is hoped will
reduce a global supply glut that has pressured oil prices lower for more than two years. The producer
cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement
coordinated production cuts. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic,
with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production. Most analysts believe that some
form of consensus will be reached, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the
market. "An agreement to a large production cut could send oil prices closer to $60 per barrel before
year's end, while failure to reach an agreement could cause oil prices to fall back to the low $40 per
barrel," In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to developments surrounding
Wednesday’s OPEC meeting. Markets will also be watching U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and
Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has
compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Tuesday, November 29 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its
weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a
larger-than-expected U.S. oil inventory drawdown last week. U.S. crude oil was up 25 cents or
0.71% at $48.3 a barrel at 10.35 ET. Global benchmark Brent futures were at $49.34 a barrel, up
25 cents or 0.53%. Crude oil inventories fell by 1.25 million barrels last week, the EIA said. That
was compared to forecasts for a stockpile build of 0.67 million barrels after a build of 5.27
million barrels in the previous week. The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose
by2.31 million barrels, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.64 million barrels, while
distillate stockpiles rose by 0.32 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decrease of 0.35
million. Meanwhile, traders continued to ponder a planned output cut by major producers, aimed
at reducing a global supply glut and supporting prices. OPEC is to meet on November 30 to
decide on strategy for the first half of next year. The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14
member states along with non-OPEC member Russia to implement coordinated production cuts.
But doubts remain over the outlook for a deal, amid uncertainty over how any agreement would
be implemented. OPEC reached an agreement to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to
33.0 million barrels per day at a meeting in September. But production by OPEC members hit a
record high in October of 33.64 million barrels per day. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut
output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb
production. Iran has ramped up production in a bid to regain market share after international
sanctions against it were lifted last January.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned PEC-led crude
production cut and thin liquidity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making
big new bets on markets. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $48.90 at
0209 GMT, down 5 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1
were at $47.94 per barrel, down 2 cents from their last settlement. Traders said market activity
was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets
due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together
with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to
which member states should cut and by how much. Thanksgiving Holiday today has thinned
traders interest ... but the OPEC result next Wednesday is the only game in town for energy
traders," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerages in Singapore. Most
analysts believe that some form of a production cut will be agreed, though it is uncertain whether
this will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over
two years. Beyond OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen in 2003
against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong dollar, in
which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other currencies at
home, potentially crimping demand.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude
production cut and thin liquidity during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making
big new bets. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $49.01 at 0711 GMT, up 6 cents from
their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $48.07 per barrel, up 11 cents
from their last settlement. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there
was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil
production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to
meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but
there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and
by how much. analysts believe some form of production cut will be agreed, but it is uncertain
whether it will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang
for over two years, resulting in a record three years of falling investments into the sector,
according to the International Energy Agency. expect OPEC will reach an agreement at next
week's biannual meeting in Vienna... If OPEC does successfully reach an agreement, prices are
likely to test the year high in Brent of $53 per barrel," ANZ bank said in a note to clients on
Thursday. But it added that "investor positioning data and price action suggest the market
remains unconvinced," and that net long positions, which would profit from rising prices, were
still at lows not seen since oil hit $27 per barrel earlier this year. IEA Director Fatih Birol told
Reuters in Tokyo on Thursday that even if production is cut, prices could soon come back under
downward pressure again as the OPEC-led cut would enable U.S. shale oil drillers to massively
increase their own output. OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen
in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong
dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other
currencies at home, potentially crimping demand. There were also signs of ongoing oversupply,
with China's gasoline exports soaring over 100 percent compared with this time last year, to
870,000 tonnes, as its refiners churn out more petrol than even China's huge consumer base can
handle.
BASE METAL✍
Copper prices have risen around 22% so far this month on hopes that infrastructure plans in top
consumers China and the U.S. will bolster demand for the industrial metal. In the week ahead,
markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November as
well as data on U.S. economic growth and manufacturing for fresh indications on the likelihood
of a December rate hike. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these
and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Last week, LME Copper prices traded higher by 8.4 percent to close at $5879/tonne as
expectations of increased infrastructure spending in the US after commitment by President elect
Trump in his victory speech widely expected to spur growth and inflation continued to boost
demand outlook. Besides, persistently falling LME stocks, which are down by 26 percent in
November itself, is also supportive. This month, Copper prices have been a beneficiary of robust
manufacturing activity in the major consumer nations, namely the US, China and EU. Apart from
that, persistent weakening in the Yuan is adding to the strength in the prices. MCX copper prices.
Open interest in non-farm commodities on the Multi Commodity Exchange has declined sharply
in the last three weeks following uncertainty over global economic indicators. Traders have
started squaring off their positions and churning their portfolios for better profit. This is
happening despite the rising prices of base metals and falling bullion prices. The open interest for
all gold contracts declined to 8,160 lots on Wednesday from 9,267 lots on November 8. Open
interest for all silver contracts fell to 15,389 lots on Wednesday from 16,163 lots on November 8.
“More than global factors, demonetisation affected trading sentiment. Those with cash balances
are busy adjusting them and those who do not have cash are abstaining from fresh positions.
Copper stood out among the hottest commodities in the past one month, as prices of the base
metal surged nearly 20 per cent on hopes of improving demand from top consumer China and a
steady decline in stocks at warehouses. The rally was fuelled by optimism over robust demand
from the US on expectation of increased infrastructure spending under president-elect Donald
Trump. Trump has pledged to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure over the next 10 years, which
has fuelled demand expectation. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, prices of the commodity
jumped from Rs 311 a kg on October 17 to Rs 368.70 a kg. However, market experts believe the
rally is now overdone and there could be some correction by mid-December. In the runup to the
US presidential election, copper prices rose in anticipation of Hillary Clinton’s victory. In fact,
copper prices surpassed the crucial $5000 per tonne psychological mark on the London Metal
Exchange on November 7, a day prior to the election. But the most surprising thing was that the
metal moved 7 per cent higher in the international markets in a matter of just three days on
November 8-10 despite the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election.
However, on MCX, copper prices surged 10 per cent to Rs 373.60 on November 11 from Rs
339.75 on November 8.
Copper prices fell by 1.11 per cent to Rs 365.95 per kg in futures trade today as participants
indulged in reducing positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas. Besides, subdued
demand from consuming industries in the spot market weighed on prices. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month contracts declined by Rs 4.10, or
1.11 per cent, to Rs 365.95 per kg in a business turnover of 1,050 lots. On similar lines, the metal
for delivery in far-month February next month traded lower by Rs 3.80, or 1.01 per cent, to Rs
371.65 per kg in 21 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of a weak
trend as most industrial metals fell globally as speculators in China took their foot off the pedal
and the stronger dollar deterred investors from buying commodities, mainly influenced copper
prices at futures trade.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SOYABEAN
Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday on anticipation of firm international markets on
biofuel usage in US and domestically good
demand of soybean for crushing. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during
the month of December. The most-active Dec’16 delivery contract closed 1.96% down to settle
at Rs. 3,123 per quintal. Recently, SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) soybean
output in the country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier. The spot prices have dropped below
the MSP in some places in States of MP, Maha and Gujarat.
CBOT soybean was closed higher on Friday, supported by strongerthan-expected weekly export
sales data. The USDA reported export
sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at nearly 1.9 million tonnes, above a range of trade
expectations for 1.2 million to 1.5 million
tonnes. Moreover, record EPA biofuel mandate EPA raised quotas of renewable fuel mixed into
U.S. gasoline and diesel to a record 19.28 billion gallons, including 15 billion gallons of ethanol.
REFINED SOYA OIL✍
Refined soy oil futures continue its uptrend last week on tracking firm international prices on
anticipation of squeezing supplies from the US due to record requirement biofuel use for next
year. Moreover, anticipation of further increase in tariff value by government of India for 1st half
of December too supports prices at higher levels. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec’16 expiry
contract closed 3.75% higher last week to settle at Rs. 710.3/10kg. The tariff value of crude
soyoil were raised by $13 per tn to $866 which was the fourth increase in two month by the
government. Recently, NCDEX has withdrawn additional margin of 2.5% on both long and
short side on all running contracts of soy oil. As per SEA data, India October crude soyoil import
277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year ago while, India’s 2015/16
crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt – an increase of 41% y/y for the current oil year (Nov-
Oct).
SUGAR✍
Sugar Futures fall last week due to anticipation of good physical supplies form the sugar mills as
the crushing season is in full swing in main sugarcane growing states. Moreover, there is
subdued demand in the physical market as stockists are not willing to buy due to cash crunch
situation. The most-active December sugar contract closed 2.50% down last week to settle at
3,428 per quintal.
As per ISMA, Sugar mills have produced 15,000 tonnes more till November 15 this year at 7.87
lakh tonne against 7.72 lakh tonne in the same period last year. Sugar production has increased
marginally on account of early crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka As per ISMA’s
first media release, the carryover stock as on 1st October is pegged at 77 lt and production is
estimated at 234 lt in 2016-17 SS. Therefore, total sugar available in the country during 2016-17
SS would be around 311 lt, against the estimated consumption of 255 lt. During 2016-17 SS,
Maharashtra mills delayed their starting so as to get the cane matured further to get better sugar
recovery from standing cane. These mills are now expected to start crushing from 5th November,
2016. Similarly, Gujarat mills are expected to start this week.
ICE raw sugar futures rose on Friday, boosted by a pick-up in physical demand after recent
declines helped to tighten nearby supplies.
Moreover, the weak Brazilian real often pressures raw sugar prices as it encourages producer and
fund selling. Moreover, speculators reduced their record bullish in raw sugar contracts in the
week to Nov. 15, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. As per,
the International Sugar Organization, world sugar production and demand will come back into
balance in 2017-18, ending the run of deficits which has left inventories at a "critically low
level" in the current season. Industry group Unica said sugar production was 2.05 mt, near the
top of a range of forecasts of around 1.9 million to 2.08 million.
RAPE/ MUSTERED SEED✍
Mustard seed futures closed higher last week due to boost in winter demand and effect on
increase in MSP. However, good sowing
progress limit the uptrend. The Dec’16 contract ended 0.43% higher last week to settle at Rs.
4,645/quintal. As per agriculture ministry data, all-India acreage of mustard in the ongoing rabi
season was nearly 58.1 lh as on Nov 24 up 17.8% from a year ago. The sowing operations were
not affected much, as sowing is nearing an end, and farmers had already bought the seeds. Till
Nov 18, Rajasthan, planted 24.6 lakh ha, up 24% from a year ago similarly acreage increase in
Uttar Pradesh, where mustard is sown in
9.82 lh, up 15.4% from a year ago. In MP, the oilseed was sown over 5.21 lh, up 23.2% sown a
year ago. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which
includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. As per the latest USDA monthly report, global rapeseed
production for 2016/17 is forecast higher at 67.81 mt in Nov. compared to 67.6 mt in October and
down 3.4% from 2015/16.
JEERA✍
Jeera futures closed higher last week due to expectation of tight supplies and fresh export
enquiries as sowing season commenced in
Gujarat and Rajasthan. NCDEX Dec’16 Jeera closed 8.37% higher last week to close at Rs
18,770 per quintal. Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. In Gujarat, Jeera sowing
completed in around 99,100 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,400 hectares, as on
21st Nov. The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year
stocks. As on
21 November 2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and
Unjha is 743 MT. Last year stocks were
about 6,426 tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first
five months (Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to
same period last year. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003
tonnes while there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%.
TURMERIC✍
Turmeric futures closed higher last week due to good demand and dwindling supplies in the
physical market. Moreover, surge in spot
market too support the prices at futures market just a month before the harvest season. Turmeric
Dec’16 delivery contract on NCDEX
closed 3.79% higher last week to settle at Rs 7,346 per quintal. Currently the supplies are for
medium and poor quality during the rest
of the season till new crop arrived which may keep the prices sideways to higher. The reports of
good production from new season crops may pressurize prices as the harvesting begins in the
next month. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of
turmeric during April-August period up by 32% compared last year, as per government data.
Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand
in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in
Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year.
KAPAS✍
Cotton complex traded lower during the last week due to increase in demand and ease in arrivals
of seed cotton in the physical
market. Though there is is good demand from ginners and textile mills the prices have eased due
to heavy arrivals. Last week, NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17 closed 2.99% down while MCX Nov’16
cotton closed 0.83% down. Industry is estimating 355 lakh bales (170 kg each) for the season
2016- 17 (Oct-Sep), as against the government’s first estimate of 321.2 lakh bales. As per CAB,
India's cotton output is seen at 351 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% from 338 lakh bales a
year ago due to good monsoon and minimum pest infestation. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at
105.6 lh against 116 lh last year.
For the current season, cotton arrivals in the country are pegged at 32.5 lakh bales as on 12
November, 2016. In October, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan together account for at 5.82 lb
while Gujarat and Maharashtra added 7.3 lb. Madhya Pradesh too seen about 1.82 lb arrivals. In
South India, about 3.36 lb arrivals have been recorded. According to USDA, production in India
is forecast at 26.5 million bales (5.77 mt), up marginally from 2015/16. A rebound in India’s yield
is expected to offset a 10-percent reduction in cotton area this season.
ICE Cotton futures slipped to their lowest for a week on Friday as British firm Cotton Outlook
on Friday raised its forecast for global
cotton production in the 2016/17 crop year as it cut projections for world consumption. Traders
expects that U.S. export sales for the week ending Nov. 17 are likely to be one of the lowest in
recent times. However, USDA showed net upland sales of 254,800 running bales for the week
Nov 11-17 were up 19% from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior four-week
average for the 2016/17 crop. As per ICAC, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease further
by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in
China, where much of the excess stocks are held, decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the Chinese
government sold over two million tons from its official reserves from May through September
2016.
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research
Investment Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on
Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This
document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for
general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or
employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein. Ways2Capital
Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from
information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer
to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities.
All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical &
fundamental research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability
for errors of opinion. People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their
own choices.
Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these
recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the
right to alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means
acceptance of disclaimer.
DISCLOSURE
High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with
companies covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/
securities, this ensures that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance
with the regulatory body, we have resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make
any trades in the market.
Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment
decision of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services
published on website. No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the
company.
Disclosure Appendix:
The reports are prepared by analysts who are employed by High Brow Market Research Investment
Advisor Pvt. Ltd. All the views expressed in this report herein accurately reflects personal views about
the subject company or companies & their securities and no part of compensation was, is or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research
report.
Disclosure in terms of Conflict of Interest:
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or his associate or his relative has no financial interest in the
subject company and the nature of such financial interest;
(b) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates or relatives, have no actual/beneficial
ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,
(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associate has no other material conflict of interest at
the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;
Disclosure in terms of Compensation:
High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. policy prohibits its analysts, professionals
reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.
Analyst compensation: Analysts are salary based permanent employees of High Brow Market
Research Pvt. Ltd.
Disclosure in terms of Public Appearance:
(a) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates have not received any compensation from
the subject company in the past twelve months;
(b) The subject company is not now or never a client during twelve months preceding the date of
distribution of the research report.
(c) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. or its associates has never served as an officer, director or
employee of the subject company;
(d) High Brow Market Research Pvt. Ltd. has never been engaged in market making activity for the
subject company.

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Commodity Research Report 28 November 2016 Ways2Capital

  • 1.
  • 2. MCX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIU M 30-NOV-2016 122 121 120 120 119 119 118 117 116 COPPER 30-NOV-2016 420 414 408 405 402 399 396 390 384 CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3507 3410 3313 3256 3216 3159 3119 3022 2925 GOLD 05-DEC-2016 29512 29193 28874 28736 28555 28417 28236 27917 27598 LEAD 30-NOV-2016 206 191 176 170 161 155 146 131 116 NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015 231 224 217 214 210 207 203 196 189 NICKEL 30-NOV-2016 865 841 817 808 793 784 769 745 721 SILVER 05-DEC-2016 42609 41848 41087 40793 40326 40032 39565 38804 38043 ZINC 30-NOV-2016 229 217 205 201 193 189 181 169 157 MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 30-NOV-2016 140 133 126 123 119 116 112 105 98 COPPER 30-NOV-2016 502 466 430 417 394 381 358 322 286 CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3831 3634 3437 3317 3240 3120 3043 2846 2649 GOLD 05-DEC-2016 31285 30434 29583 29091 28732 28240 27881 27030 26179 LEAD 30-NOV-2016 219 199 179 172 159 152 139 119 99 NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015 263 244 225 218 206 199 187 168 149 NICKEL 30-NOV-2016 949 894 839 819 784 764 729 674 619 SILVER 05-DEC-2016 44183 42950 41717 41107 40484 39847 39251 38018 36785 ZINC 30-NOV-2016 261 237 213 205 189 181 165 141 117 Monday, 28 November 2016
  • 3. WEEKLY MCX CALL SELL ALUMINIUM DEC BELOW 120.50 TGT 118.50 SL 122.30 SELL NATURAL GAS DEC BELOW 2019 TGT 214 SL 223.10 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL ALUMINIUM 115.60 TGT 113.60 SL 117.20 - NOT EXECUTED SELL CRUDEOIL DEC BELOW 3160 TGT 3080 SL 3220 - NOT EXECUTED FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 28-DEC- 2016 69.30 69.20 69.10 69 68.90 68.80 68.70 68.60 68.50 EURINR 28-DEC- 2016 74.20 74 73.80 73.60 73.40 73.20 73 72.80 72.60 GBPINR 28-DEC- 2016 87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30 86 85.70 85.40 85.10 84.80 JPYINR 28-DEC- 2016 86.90 86.70 86.50 86.30 86.10 85.90 85.70 85.50 85.30 FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 28-DEC- 2016 69.60 69.40 69.20 69 68.80 68.60 68.40 68.20 68 EURINR 28-DEC- 2016 74.40 74.10 73.90 73.60 73.30 73 72.70 72.40 72.10 GBPINR 28-DEC- 2016 87.80 87.30 86.80 86.30 85.80 85.30 84.80 84.30 83.80 JPYINR 28-DEC- 2016 87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30 86 85.70 85.40 85.10 84.80 WEEKLY FOREX CALL BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 61.80 TGT 62.85 SL 60.95 SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 84.90 SL 87.05 PREVIOUS WEEK CALL SELL USDINR NOV BELOW 68.10 TGT 67.30 SL 68.70 - NOT EXECUTED SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 84.10 TGT 83.10 SL 85.05 - NOT EXECUTED
  • 4. NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-DEC- 2016 726 720 714 712 708 706 702 696 690 SYBEANIDR 20-DEC- 2016 3190 3161 3132 3117 3103 3088 3074 3045 3016 RMSEED 20-DEC- 2016 4792 4747 4702 4673 4657 4628 4612 4567 4522 JEERAUNJH A 20-DEC- 2016 20090 19595 19100 18935 18605 18440 18110 17615 17120 GUARSEED10 20-DEC- 2016 3507 3450 3393 3360 3336 3303 3279 3222 3165 TMC 20-DEC- 2016 7829 7669 7509 7427 7349 7267 7189 7029 6869 NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-DEC- 2016 789 760 731 720 702 691 673 644 615 SYBEANIDR 20-DEC- 2016 3421 3313 3205 3154 3097 3046 2989 2881 2773 RMSEED 20-DEC- 2016 506 1 4930 4799 4722 4668 4591 4537 4406 4275 JEERAUNJH A 20-DEC- 2016 22530 21120 19710 19240 18300 17830 16890 15480 14070 GUARSEED10 20-DEC- 2016 3853 3666 3479 3404 3292 3217 3105 2918 2731 TMC 20-DEC- 2016 8447 8055 7663 7505 7271 7113 6879 6487 6095 WEEKLY NCDEX CALL SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3310 TGT 3200 SL 3402 SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 18450 TGT 18000 SL 18905 PREIOUS WEEEK CALL SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3294 TGT 3203 SL 3353 - SL BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 17500 TGT 17900 SL 17100 - TGT
  • 5. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS GLOBAL UPDATE✍ Gold prices closed at the lowest level in nine months on Friday as expectations for higher U.S. interest rates continued to cloud the demand outlook for the precious metal. Gold for December delivery settled down 0.53% at $1,183.00 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since February 5. Safe haven demand for gold has been hit since the U.S. presidential election amid expectations that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation. Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected. The precious metal has also been weighed down by bets that a rate hike by the Fed in December is a near certainty. According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, 95.4% of traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver settled at $16.47, paring the week’s losses to 0.48%. Also on the Comex, copper for December delivery settled at $2.46 a pound. Gold prices eased on Thursday after falling to their lowest levels since February as the dollar paused after surging to fresh 14-year peaks. Gold for December delivery was trading at $1,187.55 a troy ounce by 0946 GMT, after earlier falling as low as $1,179.75, a level not seen since February 8. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last at 101.67, not far from highs of 102.11, the strongest level since early April 2003. The dollar rallied after upbeat U.S. data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes cemented expectations for a rate hike next month. The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting said an interest-rate increase was possible “relatively soon” if data indicated that the economy is improving. Some Fed officials explicitly called for a rate hike in December, the minutes showed. Separately, data showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose at the fastest rate in a year in October and another report showed that a gauge of U.S. consumer confidence rose strongly in November. According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are now at 100%. Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive to holders of other currencies when the dollar strengthens. Prices of the yellow metal had already come under pressure this month amid the view that increased U.S. fiscal spending under a Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Trade was expected remain quiet on Thursday; with
  • 6. U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for December delivery were at $16.34 a troy ounce, while copper futures traded at $2.65 a pound. Copper prices have risen around 20% so far this month on expectations of rising demand from China and an increase in infrastructure spending in the U.S. when Donald Trump becomes president. China and the U.S. are the top two consumers of the industrial metal. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.47 percent to 891.57 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday. Holdings have declined over 5 percent so far this month. Gold prices have dropped nearly 12 percent from a high of $1,337.40 per ounce, hit on Nov. 9, when Donald Trump was announced U.S. president-elect. "Since no one particularly anticipated the move post the Trump win, the position cutting on the long-side has been swift on the downside," said Amit Kumar Gupta, research head at Adroit Financial Services, adding that the market has piled into the U.S dollar and equities. "Technically, $1,172 will act as support, below which the down move could be aggressive." Spot silver XAG= fell 0.6 percent to $16.26 an ounce. Platinum XPT= dropped over 1.3 percent to $918.40, while palladium XPD= edged up 0.2 percent to $734.40. Gold edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. equities hit all-time highs on market expectations for higher growth and more spending from a Donald Trump presidency. Trump's victory in the Nov. 8 U.S. election initially saw a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold but the trend quickly reversed as the dollar .DXY and bond yields surged on expectations of higher U.S. spending and interest rates.Spot gold XAU= was down 0.14 percent at $1,211.97 an ounce by 2:18 p.m. EST (1918 GMT). The previous day, bullion advanced 0.4 percent to snap three sessions of losses. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.1 percent at $1,211.20 per ounce. Safe haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen JPY= are usually the casualties of a flight to risk where the dollar and stocks perform well. "We are still in the Donald Trump honeymoon period which has taken the equity market quite a bit higher. The market is looking for global growth to come to the rescue," said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen. ENERGY✍ Oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid uncertainty over whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can reach an agreement to cut production and prop up markets. U.S. crude oil settled down $1.97 or 4.11% at $49.55 a barrel from its previous close on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the largest one day decline since September 23. U.S crude still ended the week up 0.81% after trading in a range between $45.77 and $49.20 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent futures were at $48.24 a barrel, down $1.76 cents or 3.59%. Trading activity remained thin because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Doubts over whether major global exporters will be able to reach an
  • 7. agreement next week to rein in output also kept investors on the sidelines. OPEC is to hold a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed output cut, which it is hoped will reduce a global supply glut that has pressured oil prices lower for more than two years. The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement coordinated production cuts. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production. Most analysts believe that some form of consensus will be reached, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the market. "An agreement to a large production cut could send oil prices closer to $60 per barrel before year's end, while failure to reach an agreement could cause oil prices to fall back to the low $40 per barrel," In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to developments surrounding Wednesday’s OPEC meeting. Markets will also be watching U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. Tuesday, November 29 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies. Oil prices rose on Wednesday, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected U.S. oil inventory drawdown last week. U.S. crude oil was up 25 cents or 0.71% at $48.3 a barrel at 10.35 ET. Global benchmark Brent futures were at $49.34 a barrel, up 25 cents or 0.53%. Crude oil inventories fell by 1.25 million barrels last week, the EIA said. That was compared to forecasts for a stockpile build of 0.67 million barrels after a build of 5.27 million barrels in the previous week. The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose by2.31 million barrels, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.64 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 0.32 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decrease of 0.35 million. Meanwhile, traders continued to ponder a planned output cut by major producers, aimed at reducing a global supply glut and supporting prices. OPEC is to meet on November 30 to decide on strategy for the first half of next year. The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states along with non-OPEC member Russia to implement coordinated production cuts. But doubts remain over the outlook for a deal, amid uncertainty over how any agreement would be implemented. OPEC reached an agreement to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to 33.0 million barrels per day at a meeting in September. But production by OPEC members hit a record high in October of 33.64 million barrels per day. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production. Iran has ramped up production in a bid to regain market share after international sanctions against it were lifted last January. Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned PEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets on markets. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $48.90 at
  • 8. 0209 GMT, down 5 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $47.94 per barrel, down 2 cents from their last settlement. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much. Thanksgiving Holiday today has thinned traders interest ... but the OPEC result next Wednesday is the only game in town for energy traders," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerages in Singapore. Most analysts believe that some form of a production cut will be agreed, though it is uncertain whether this will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over two years. Beyond OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other currencies at home, potentially crimping demand. Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude production cut and thin liquidity during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making big new bets. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $49.01 at 0711 GMT, up 6 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $48.07 per barrel, up 11 cents from their last settlement. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and by how much. analysts believe some form of production cut will be agreed, but it is uncertain whether it will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over two years, resulting in a record three years of falling investments into the sector, according to the International Energy Agency. expect OPEC will reach an agreement at next week's biannual meeting in Vienna... If OPEC does successfully reach an agreement, prices are likely to test the year high in Brent of $53 per barrel," ANZ bank said in a note to clients on Thursday. But it added that "investor positioning data and price action suggest the market remains unconvinced," and that net long positions, which would profit from rising prices, were still at lows not seen since oil hit $27 per barrel earlier this year. IEA Director Fatih Birol told Reuters in Tokyo on Thursday that even if production is cut, prices could soon come back under downward pressure again as the OPEC-led cut would enable U.S. shale oil drillers to massively increase their own output. OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other
  • 9. currencies at home, potentially crimping demand. There were also signs of ongoing oversupply, with China's gasoline exports soaring over 100 percent compared with this time last year, to 870,000 tonnes, as its refiners churn out more petrol than even China's huge consumer base can handle. BASE METAL✍ Copper prices have risen around 22% so far this month on hopes that infrastructure plans in top consumers China and the U.S. will bolster demand for the industrial metal. In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November as well as data on U.S. economic growth and manufacturing for fresh indications on the likelihood of a December rate hike. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. Last week, LME Copper prices traded higher by 8.4 percent to close at $5879/tonne as expectations of increased infrastructure spending in the US after commitment by President elect Trump in his victory speech widely expected to spur growth and inflation continued to boost demand outlook. Besides, persistently falling LME stocks, which are down by 26 percent in November itself, is also supportive. This month, Copper prices have been a beneficiary of robust manufacturing activity in the major consumer nations, namely the US, China and EU. Apart from that, persistent weakening in the Yuan is adding to the strength in the prices. MCX copper prices. Open interest in non-farm commodities on the Multi Commodity Exchange has declined sharply in the last three weeks following uncertainty over global economic indicators. Traders have started squaring off their positions and churning their portfolios for better profit. This is happening despite the rising prices of base metals and falling bullion prices. The open interest for all gold contracts declined to 8,160 lots on Wednesday from 9,267 lots on November 8. Open interest for all silver contracts fell to 15,389 lots on Wednesday from 16,163 lots on November 8. “More than global factors, demonetisation affected trading sentiment. Those with cash balances are busy adjusting them and those who do not have cash are abstaining from fresh positions. Copper stood out among the hottest commodities in the past one month, as prices of the base metal surged nearly 20 per cent on hopes of improving demand from top consumer China and a steady decline in stocks at warehouses. The rally was fuelled by optimism over robust demand from the US on expectation of increased infrastructure spending under president-elect Donald Trump. Trump has pledged to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure over the next 10 years, which has fuelled demand expectation. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, prices of the commodity jumped from Rs 311 a kg on October 17 to Rs 368.70 a kg. However, market experts believe the rally is now overdone and there could be some correction by mid-December. In the runup to the US presidential election, copper prices rose in anticipation of Hillary Clinton’s victory. In fact,
  • 10. copper prices surpassed the crucial $5000 per tonne psychological mark on the London Metal Exchange on November 7, a day prior to the election. But the most surprising thing was that the metal moved 7 per cent higher in the international markets in a matter of just three days on November 8-10 despite the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election. However, on MCX, copper prices surged 10 per cent to Rs 373.60 on November 11 from Rs 339.75 on November 8. Copper prices fell by 1.11 per cent to Rs 365.95 per kg in futures trade today as participants indulged in reducing positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas. Besides, subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market weighed on prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month contracts declined by Rs 4.10, or 1.11 per cent, to Rs 365.95 per kg in a business turnover of 1,050 lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery in far-month February next month traded lower by Rs 3.80, or 1.01 per cent, to Rs 371.65 per kg in 21 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of a weak trend as most industrial metals fell globally as speculators in China took their foot off the pedal and the stronger dollar deterred investors from buying commodities, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW ✍ SOYABEAN Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday on anticipation of firm international markets on biofuel usage in US and domestically good demand of soybean for crushing. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during the month of December. The most-active Dec’16 delivery contract closed 1.96% down to settle at Rs. 3,123 per quintal. Recently, SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) soybean output in the country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier. The spot prices have dropped below the MSP in some places in States of MP, Maha and Gujarat. CBOT soybean was closed higher on Friday, supported by strongerthan-expected weekly export sales data. The USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at nearly 1.9 million tonnes, above a range of trade expectations for 1.2 million to 1.5 million tonnes. Moreover, record EPA biofuel mandate EPA raised quotas of renewable fuel mixed into U.S. gasoline and diesel to a record 19.28 billion gallons, including 15 billion gallons of ethanol.
  • 11. REFINED SOYA OIL✍ Refined soy oil futures continue its uptrend last week on tracking firm international prices on anticipation of squeezing supplies from the US due to record requirement biofuel use for next year. Moreover, anticipation of further increase in tariff value by government of India for 1st half of December too supports prices at higher levels. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec’16 expiry contract closed 3.75% higher last week to settle at Rs. 710.3/10kg. The tariff value of crude soyoil were raised by $13 per tn to $866 which was the fourth increase in two month by the government. Recently, NCDEX has withdrawn additional margin of 2.5% on both long and short side on all running contracts of soy oil. As per SEA data, India October crude soyoil import 277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year ago while, India’s 2015/16 crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt – an increase of 41% y/y for the current oil year (Nov- Oct). SUGAR✍ Sugar Futures fall last week due to anticipation of good physical supplies form the sugar mills as the crushing season is in full swing in main sugarcane growing states. Moreover, there is subdued demand in the physical market as stockists are not willing to buy due to cash crunch situation. The most-active December sugar contract closed 2.50% down last week to settle at 3,428 per quintal. As per ISMA, Sugar mills have produced 15,000 tonnes more till November 15 this year at 7.87 lakh tonne against 7.72 lakh tonne in the same period last year. Sugar production has increased marginally on account of early crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka As per ISMA’s first media release, the carryover stock as on 1st October is pegged at 77 lt and production is estimated at 234 lt in 2016-17 SS. Therefore, total sugar available in the country during 2016-17 SS would be around 311 lt, against the estimated consumption of 255 lt. During 2016-17 SS, Maharashtra mills delayed their starting so as to get the cane matured further to get better sugar recovery from standing cane. These mills are now expected to start crushing from 5th November, 2016. Similarly, Gujarat mills are expected to start this week. ICE raw sugar futures rose on Friday, boosted by a pick-up in physical demand after recent declines helped to tighten nearby supplies. Moreover, the weak Brazilian real often pressures raw sugar prices as it encourages producer and fund selling. Moreover, speculators reduced their record bullish in raw sugar contracts in the week to Nov. 15, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. As per,
  • 12. the International Sugar Organization, world sugar production and demand will come back into balance in 2017-18, ending the run of deficits which has left inventories at a "critically low level" in the current season. Industry group Unica said sugar production was 2.05 mt, near the top of a range of forecasts of around 1.9 million to 2.08 million. RAPE/ MUSTERED SEED✍ Mustard seed futures closed higher last week due to boost in winter demand and effect on increase in MSP. However, good sowing progress limit the uptrend. The Dec’16 contract ended 0.43% higher last week to settle at Rs. 4,645/quintal. As per agriculture ministry data, all-India acreage of mustard in the ongoing rabi season was nearly 58.1 lh as on Nov 24 up 17.8% from a year ago. The sowing operations were not affected much, as sowing is nearing an end, and farmers had already bought the seeds. Till Nov 18, Rajasthan, planted 24.6 lakh ha, up 24% from a year ago similarly acreage increase in Uttar Pradesh, where mustard is sown in 9.82 lh, up 15.4% from a year ago. In MP, the oilseed was sown over 5.21 lh, up 23.2% sown a year ago. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. As per the latest USDA monthly report, global rapeseed production for 2016/17 is forecast higher at 67.81 mt in Nov. compared to 67.6 mt in October and down 3.4% from 2015/16. JEERA✍ Jeera futures closed higher last week due to expectation of tight supplies and fresh export enquiries as sowing season commenced in Gujarat and Rajasthan. NCDEX Dec’16 Jeera closed 8.37% higher last week to close at Rs 18,770 per quintal. Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. In Gujarat, Jeera sowing completed in around 99,100 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,400 hectares, as on 21st Nov. The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks. As on 21 November 2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and Unjha is 743 MT. Last year stocks were about 6,426 tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first five months (Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to same period last year. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003 tonnes while there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%.
  • 13. TURMERIC✍ Turmeric futures closed higher last week due to good demand and dwindling supplies in the physical market. Moreover, surge in spot market too support the prices at futures market just a month before the harvest season. Turmeric Dec’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 3.79% higher last week to settle at Rs 7,346 per quintal. Currently the supplies are for medium and poor quality during the rest of the season till new crop arrived which may keep the prices sideways to higher. The reports of good production from new season crops may pressurize prices as the harvesting begins in the next month. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-August period up by 32% compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year. KAPAS✍ Cotton complex traded lower during the last week due to increase in demand and ease in arrivals of seed cotton in the physical market. Though there is is good demand from ginners and textile mills the prices have eased due to heavy arrivals. Last week, NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17 closed 2.99% down while MCX Nov’16 cotton closed 0.83% down. Industry is estimating 355 lakh bales (170 kg each) for the season 2016- 17 (Oct-Sep), as against the government’s first estimate of 321.2 lakh bales. As per CAB, India's cotton output is seen at 351 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% from 338 lakh bales a year ago due to good monsoon and minimum pest infestation. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at 105.6 lh against 116 lh last year. For the current season, cotton arrivals in the country are pegged at 32.5 lakh bales as on 12 November, 2016. In October, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan together account for at 5.82 lb while Gujarat and Maharashtra added 7.3 lb. Madhya Pradesh too seen about 1.82 lb arrivals. In South India, about 3.36 lb arrivals have been recorded. According to USDA, production in India is forecast at 26.5 million bales (5.77 mt), up marginally from 2015/16. A rebound in India’s yield is expected to offset a 10-percent reduction in cotton area this season. ICE Cotton futures slipped to their lowest for a week on Friday as British firm Cotton Outlook
  • 14. on Friday raised its forecast for global cotton production in the 2016/17 crop year as it cut projections for world consumption. Traders expects that U.S. export sales for the week ending Nov. 17 are likely to be one of the lowest in recent times. However, USDA showed net upland sales of 254,800 running bales for the week Nov 11-17 were up 19% from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior four-week average for the 2016/17 crop. As per ICAC, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease further by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in China, where much of the excess stocks are held, decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the Chinese government sold over two million tons from its official reserves from May through September 2016.
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